Duan Yongping’s Classic Investment Cases
“When something worth 10 yuan is being sold to you for 1 yuan with people crying and begging, why do you need courage?”
💡 Core Insights
- 段永平 says “we earned over 100x on NetEase because I had accumulated much understanding of the gaming industry during my Subor days” — 能力圈 (circle of competence) determines investment returns
- If you truly understand it, you can hold on without needing any special techniques — “only when you can truly understand your investment targets can you hold on”
- Making big money isn’t achieved through valuation calculation — “if I had known NetEase would rise 160x, wouldn’t I have bought it all?”
- Every major winning investment was made within his 能力圈: NetEase (gaming industry), Apple (consumer electronics), Moutai (consumer goods)
📊 Major Investment Cases
🏆 NetEase (2002) — 100x Returns
Background: In 2002, NetEase’s stock price fell to $0.80, facing delisting risk; market sentiment was extremely pessimistic.
Duan Yongping’s Judgment:
- He had accumulated deep understanding of the gaming industry during his Subor days — this was a demonstration of 能力圈
- The reason the market wasn’t optimistic was “many people felt the gaming market isn’t that large,” but Duan Yongping was “very certain this market is extremely large”
- “When something worth 10 yuan is being sold to you for 1 yuan with people crying and begging, why do you need courage?”
Result: NetEase eventually rose 160x; Duan Yongping earned over 100x returns.
Reflection: “If I had known then that NetEase would rise 160x, wouldn’t I have bought it all? It’s precisely because qualitative analysis has many uncertainties that in most cases even when bullish, people often don’t dare to make big bets.”
🍎 Apple (Around 2011) — Multiple-Fold Returns
Background: When Apple’s stock price was around $12, Duan Yongping was interested but didn’t buy. Later he bought at higher prices and still earned substantial returns.
Duan Yongping’s Judgment:
- As someone working in the consumer electronics industry, he had profound understanding of Apple’s 生意模式
- “Apple has 利润之上的追求, which is making the best products”
- “Apple’s culture is very strong, with strict Stop Doing List”
Lesson from Missing Out: “When Apple was at 600!”
🥃 Moutai (Around 2012) — Long-Term Holding
Background: Duan Yongping has held a heavy position in Moutai on A-shares for a long time — his most important A-share holding.
Duan Yongping’s Judgment:
- Moutai’s 护城河 (moat) is extremely deep — brand cannot be replicated, production capacity is limited
- “People who’ve been heavily holding Moutai don’t think so (that A-shares aren’t suitable for value investing)”
- “Always thinking about what Moutai will be like in 10 years makes it easy to hold onto”
⚡ GE (2008 Financial Crisis) — Investment Mistake
Background: During the 2008 financial crisis, Duan Yongping bought heavily into GE and later suffered losses.
Duan Yongping’s Judgment:
- “As business operators, we tracked GE’s corporate culture for many years, and from the bottom of my heart I believed GE was a great company”
- However, GE Capital’s financial services exceeded his 能力圈
Reflection: “Looking back today, I probably wouldn’t buy GE — instead, I should have bought Apple back then. Because upon reflection, my understanding of GE wasn’t thorough enough, but Apple is a company I can truly understand.”
📱 Pinduoduo (2018) — Pre-IPO Investment
Background: Duan Yongping participated in Pre-IPO investing in Pinduoduo before its IPO, based on trust in 黄峥 (Colin Huang).
Duan Yongping’s Judgment:
- “I have high trust in Colin Huang! Give him 10 years, and everyone will see where they excel.”
- “Costco + Disney — this definition is quite interesting”
💬 Original Quotes
“I remember reporters once asked why I had such courage to buy NetEase back then. I said: when something worth 10 yuan is being sold to you for 1 yuan with people crying and begging, why do you need courage?” — Duan Yongping (2011-05-08)
“We earned over 100x on NetEase because during my Subor days I had accumulated much understanding of gaming. This kind of understanding schools won’t teach, books won’t contain, and financial statements won’t reveal.” — Duan Yongping (2010-02-07)
“Only when you can truly understand your investment targets can you hold on. My understanding of Vanke is far less than my understanding of NetEase, so earning less is reasonable.” — Duan Yongping (2010-03-18)
“Generally speaking, stocks earning dozens of times or more were definitely not identified through valuation calculation — otherwise there’d be no reason investors didn’t go all-in from the start (if I had known NetEase would rise 160x, wouldn’t I have bought it all?).” — Duan Yongping (2010-04-25)
🔗 Related Notes
Related Concepts 能力圈 · 生意模式 · 护城河 · 买入逻辑 · 卖出逻辑 Related Companies 网易 · 苹果 · 茅台 · GE · 拼多多 Related Topics 如何判断一家好公司 · 如何给公司估值 · 段永平的错误与反思 Related People 段永平 · 黄峥
段永平的经典投资案例
“10块钱的东西有人一块钱哭着喊着要卖给你，你要勇气干什么？”
💡 核心观点
- 段永平说”我们能在网易上赚到100多倍，是因为我在做小霸王时就有了很多对游戏的理解”——能力圈决定了投资回报
- 真懂了就拿得住，不需要什么技巧——“你如果能够真正了解你的投资标的时才能拿得住”
- 赚大钱不是靠估值估出来的——“当时我要知道网易会涨160倍，我还不把他全买下来？”
- 每一笔大赚，都是在能力圈内的投资——网易（游戏行业）、苹果（消费电子）、茅台（消费品）
📊 主要投资案例
🏆 网易（2002年）——100倍回报
背景：2002年，网易股价跌至0.8美元，面临退市风险，市场极度悲观。
段永平的判断：
- 在做小霸王时积累了大量对游戏行业的理解——这是能力圈的体现
- 市场不看好的原因是”很多人觉得游戏这个市场不是很大”，但段永平”很确定这个市场非常大”
- “10块钱的东西有人一块钱哭着喊着要卖给你，你要勇气干什么？”
结果：网易最终涨了160倍，段永平获得100倍以上回报。
反思：“当时我要知道网易会涨160倍，我还不把他全买下来？正是由于定性分析有很多不确定性，所以多数情况下人们往往即使看好也不敢下大注”。
🍎 苹果（2011年前后）——数倍回报
背景：苹果股价在12美元左右时，段永平曾有兴趣但没有买入；后来在更高价格买入，仍获得丰厚回报。
段永平的判断：
- 作为消费电子行业的从业者，他对苹果的生意模式有深刻理解
- “苹果有利润之上的追求，就是做最好的产品”
- “苹果文化的强度很强，有严格的Stop Doing List”
错过的教训：“苹果12块多时我可是非常有兴趣的，但有些东西没搞懂，当时好像不知道要忙些啥事，就放下了，现在可是600多块啊”。
🥃 茅台（2012年前后）——长期持有
背景：段永平在A股长期重仓茅台，是他最重要的A股持仓。
段永平的判断：
- 茅台的护城河极深——品牌不可复制，产能有限
- “一直重仓拿着茅台的人们可不这么认为（A股不适合价值投资）”
- “脑子里总是想着10年后茅台会怎么样，所以也容易拿得住”
⚡ GE（2008年金融危机）——投资错误
背景：2008年金融危机时，段永平大举买入GE，后来亏损。
段永平的判断：
- “作为企业经营者，我们跟踪GE的企业文化很多年，我从心底认为GE是家伟大的公司”
- 但GE的金融业务（GE Capital）超出了他的能力圈
反思：“如果放到今天来看，我大概不会买GE，而是应该那个时候就买苹果。因为回过头来想，我对GE的理解并不是很透，但苹果却是我能真的理解的公司”。
📱 拼多多（2018年）——Pre-IPO投资
背景：段永平在拼多多IPO前参与了Pre-IPO投资，理由是对黄峥的信任。
段永平的判断：
- “我对黄峥有很高的信任度！给他10年时间，大家会看到他们厉害的地方的”
- “Costco + Disney，这个定义有点意思”
💬 原文摘录
“记得以前有记者问为什么当年我那么有勇气买网易，我说10块钱的东西有人一块钱哭着喊着要卖给你，你要勇气干什么？” — 段永平（2011-05-08）
“我们能在网易上赚到100多倍是因为我在做小霸王时就有了很多对游戏的理解，这种理解学校是不会教的，书上也没有，财报里也看不出来。” — 段永平（2010-02-07）
“你如果能够真正了解你的投资标的时才能拿得住啊。我对万科的了解就远远不如对网易的了解，所以赚的少点是合理的。” — 段永平（2010-03-18）
“一般而言，赚到几十倍甚至更多的股票绝不是靠估值估出来的，不然没道理投资人一开始不全盘压上（当时我要知道网易会涨160倍，我还不把他全买下来？）。” — 段永平（2010-04-25）
🔗 相关笔记
相关概念 能力圈 · 生意模式 · 护城河 · 买入逻辑 · 卖出逻辑 相关公司 网易 · 苹果 · 茅台 · GE · 拼多多 相关主题 如何判断一家好公司 · 如何给公司估值 · 段永平的错误与反思 相关人物 段永平 · 黄峥