Duan Yongping’s Mistakes and Reflections
His admitted mistakes — more valuable learning material than success stories
Biggest Investment Mistake: Shorting Baidu
Q: Can you share what you consider your worst investment?
A: Heh heh, I’ve lost money on investments several times — most are forgivable, but one was utterly stupid: going short Baidu. My prior investment performance had been excellent, and I got a bit cocky, truly believing I was something special. At first I wanted to just play around small, but then I couldn’t accept losing, and finally got squeezed into surrendering. Across all accounts, I lost a lot of money — roughly $150-200 million, and one account still hasn’t recovered to this day.
What’s most regrettable is this mistake consumed all our cash reserves — huge opportunity cost, otherwise I could have helped everyone earn more money during this financial crisis. And what’s most regretful is this error occurred after Buffett told me not to short stocks. Now you know the consequences of not listening to elders’ advice, right? (2010-05-10)
Reflection: This was outright speculation through and through. There will be no more examples like this going forward.
Missing Early Apple Investment
Q: What caused you to miss the early opportunity to invest in Apple?
A: Built To Last is an excellent book, though it cost me the opportunity to invest in Apple early because after reading it I categorized Jobs as a “time teller” (most people still think this way). Fortunately, later I suddenly realized he’s actually also an excellent “clock builder.” (2012-03-25)
Reflection: Good books can lead to mistakes too — the key is independent thinking; don’t be constrained by frameworks.
Investing in GE (General Electric)
Q: Looking back today, would you still buy GE?
A: Looking back today, I probably wouldn’t buy GE — instead, I should have bought Apple back then. Because upon reflection, my understanding of GE wasn’t thorough enough, but Apple is a company I can truly understand. However, at the time I thought GE’s culture was good and the company should be able to turn crisis into opportunity. (2017-05-22)
Reflection: Invest only in companies you genuinely understand — not just ones where you “feel the culture seems nice.”
Selling Facebook
A: I’m preparing to sell Facebook (FB); there are some uncomfortable aspects. (2020-07-31)
Today I cleared out FB position — made quite a profit actually. Since I don’t use any FB products myself, my understanding of FB never reached a thorough level. Recently TikTok (Douyin) scared them into this state, suggesting they probably do have weaknesses. My selling also fits the pattern of “for companies I don’t understand well enough — want to sell whether up or down.” (2020-08-04)
Reflection: Products you don’t personally use are hard to truly understand — this is the boundary of one’s circle of competence.
Duan Yongping’s Investment Principles (Distilled From Mistakes)
“Never forget Old Ba’s teachings: Don’t short, don’t borrow money, don’t do what you don’t understand!” — Duan Yongping (2010-05-10)
“I’ve lost hundreds of millions of dollars in investing — every single loss occurred while violating Old Ba’s teachings, while all big profits were earned in areas I truly understood.” — Duan Yongping (2010-02-04)
“When you discover you bought the wrong stock or company, you should leave immediately — otherwise losses grow larger later, but most people hope to wait until they break even before exiting.” — Duan Yongping (2018-07)
Related Notes
Stop Doing List · 能力圈 · 本分 · 平常心 · 段永平谈巴菲特篇精选
段永平的错误与反思
他承认的失误——比成功案例更有价值的学习材料
最大的投资错误：做空百度
问：能分享一下您认为最差的一次投资吗？
答：呵呵，亏钱的投资有好几次了，多数都可以原谅，但有一次属于极度愚蠢，就是跑去 short 百度。之前投资表现非常好，有点飘飘然，真以为自己很厉害。开始还是想小玩玩，后来又不服输，最后被夹空而投降，所有账号加起来亏了很多钱，大概有 1.5-2 亿美金，其中有个账号到现在都翻不了身。
最可惜的是，这次错误把我们的现金储备全部消耗掉了，机会成本巨大，不然这次金融危机我就可以帮大家赚更多钱了。而且最遗憾的是，这个错误是发生在巴菲特叫我不要做空之后。现在知道什么叫不听老人言的后果了吧？（2010-05-10）
反思：这根本就是彻头彻尾的投机。以后不会再有这种例子了。
错过早期苹果
问：是什么让您错过了早期投资苹果？
答：《基业长青》是本好书啊，不过这本书让我失去了早期投资苹果的机会，因为看完这本书后我就把乔布斯划到报时人里去了（现在绝大多数人还这么认为）。还好后来突然悟到其实他还是一个很好的造钟人。（2012-03-25）
反思：好书也可能让人犯错——关键是要独立思考，不能被框架束缚。
投资 GE（通用电气）
问：如果放到今天来看，您还会买 GE 吗？
答：如果放到今天来看，我大概不会买 GE，而是应该那个时候就买苹果。因为回过头来想，我对 GE 的理解并不是很透，但苹果却是我能真的理解的公司。不过，当时我认为 GE 的文化很好，公司应该可以转危为安的。（2017-05-22）
反思：要投自己真正懂的公司，不能只是”觉得文化不错”。
卖出 Facebook（脸书）
答：Facebook(FB) 准备卖掉了，有些不舒服的东西。（2020-07-31）
今天清空了 FB，算是赚了不少。由于自己不用 FB 的任何产品，所以对 FB 的理解一直没达到很透彻的地步。最近一段时间，抖音就把他吓成这个样子，说明他可能还是有弱点的。我的卖出也符合”对自己不够了解的公司，涨了也想卖跌了也想卖”的情况。（2020-08-04）
反思：自己不用的产品，很难真正理解——这是能力圈的边界。
段永平总结的投资原则（从错误中提炼）
“老巴的教导千万别忘了：不做空，不借钱，不做不懂的东西！” — 段永平（2010-05-10）
“我在投资里亏掉的美金数以亿计，每一笔都是违背老巴教导的情况下亏的，而赚到的大钱也都是在自己真正懂的地方赚的。” — 段永平（2010-02-04）
“发现买错了股票或公司就应该赶紧离开，不然越到后面损失会越大，但大部分人往往会希望等到回本再说。” — 段永平（2018-07）
相关笔记
Stop Doing List · 能力圈 · 本分 · 平常心 · 段永平谈巴菲特篇精选