The Logic of Selling: Why Duan Yongping Rarely Sells
“Warren Buffett’s answer to when to sell great companies is ‘never’!”
💡 Core Insights
- Great companies don’t need to be sold — 巴菲特 says “never”
- Selling a stock has nothing to do with your purchase cost — don’t sell because of losses, don’t sell because of profits
- Buying a stock has nothing to do with its past price — only look at the company itself
- If you truly understand it, you can hold on without needing any special techniques
- Possible reasons for selling: realizing you made a mistake, finding better opportunities, or the price becoming outrageous
❓ Selected Q&A
Q: When should you sell a great company?
A: Warren Buffett’s answer to when to sell great companies is “never”! This “never” isn’t easy to understand. Warren himself took decades to roughly figure it out. (2017-08-04)
Q: How should we understand “if you buy a great company, just sit there and stay put”?
A: So, finding and confirming a truly great company is most important! (2018-11-17)
Q: How to understand that selling a stock has nothing to do with purchase cost?
A: Buying a stock has nothing to do with its past price, just as selling a stock has nothing to do with your purchase cost. If you can’t understand this point, then you’re a trader. Of course, being a profitable trader isn’t bad either, ha ha. (2012-01-28)
Q: How to understand that good companies should be held onto?
A: If you truly understand it, you can hold on without needing any special techniques. Let me reiterate my view on “holding on”: buying stocks (companies) has nothing to do with what prices they’ve reached in the past; selling stocks has nothing to do with your purchase price. Don’t always assume someone is an “expert,” and don’t always aspire to become an “expert.” Just honestly find some good companies you can understand, buy them at good prices, and hold on. Warren has said the best companies are those you never want to sell in your lifetime. Finding just a few such companies in your life makes it hard not to become wealthy. (2015-01-13)
Q: When would you sell Apple?
A: Good companies don’t need to be sold! (2018-09-30)
Q: For me, Sohu’s greatest uncertainty seems to be its continuous heavy investment in video — is this a reason to sell?
A: For me, Sohu’s greatest uncertainty seems to lie in its continuous heavy investment in video. Video is a product with very little differentiation — when a bunch of rich companies compete together, the outcome probably won’t be good. (2012-05-04)
Q: Why did you sell NetEase?
A: Because Ding Lei is like a big kid — I wasn’t comfortable leaving so much money in his hands, even though the stock price suggests I may have sold incorrectly. (2018-09-30)
Q: How to understand that for good companies, price doesn’t matter much — as long as it’s reasonable?
A: Look at it from a 10-year perspective and you’ll understand. Looking at Moutai today, how much difference does it make whether you bought at 120 or 180? Of course, if you knew Moutai would go to 120, that would be different. Long ago I said Apple was very cheap at 500, and still very cheap at $600 (before the 1-for-7 split). Now looking back, isn’t it easy to understand? (2019-05-20)
Q: Under what circumstances can one sell?
A: Selling might involve one additional factor: what if no one makes an offer? This especially applies when trying to sell companies you consider poor. (Investment Logic Chapter)
Q: How to understand that my understanding of Vanke is far less than my understanding of NetEase, so earning less is reasonable?
A: Heh heh, you can only hold on when you truly understand your investment targets. My understanding of Vanke is far less than my understanding of NetEase, so earning less is reasonable. (2010-03-18)
💡 Three Valid Reasons for Selling
According to Duan Yongping’s investment logic, there are only three valid reasons for selling:
- Realizing You Made a Mistake — The company’s fundamentals have deteriorated, or you discovered your original judgment was wrong
- Finding Better Opportunities — There are better companies, cheaper prices, and ones you understand better
- The Price Is Outrageous — Price far exceeds reasonable valuation (but this rarely happens for truly great companies)
Invalid Reasons for Selling:
- Wanting to stop losses because of losses
- Wanting to lock in profits after big gains
- Feeling fearful because the market is declining
- Because someone said the stock will fall
🔗 Related Notes
Related Concepts 买股票就是买公司 · 长期主义 · 能力圈 · 卖出逻辑 Related People 段永平 · 巴菲特 Related Companies 苹果 · 茅台 · 网易 Related Topics 买卖时机与持股逻辑篇精选 · 段永平的经典投资案例
卖出的逻辑：段永平为什么很少卖
“老巴在回答什么时候卖出伟大公司的时候说’never’！”
💡 核心观点
- 好公司是不需要卖的——巴菲特说”never”
- 卖股票和买入成本无关——不要因为亏损而不卖，也不要因为盈利而卖
- 买股票和这只股票过去是多少钱没关系——只看公司本身
- 真懂了就拿得住，不需要什么技巧
- 卖出可能的原因：发现买错了、有更好的标的、价格离谱
❓ 精选问答
问：什么时候卖出伟大公司？
答：老巴在回答什么时候卖出伟大公司的时候说”never”！这个never不容易懂，老巴自己花了几十年才大致明白了。（2017-08-04）
问：如果你买了一个伟大的公司，你就坐那儿呆着就行了，这句话怎么理解？
答：所以，找到并确实伟大的公司最重要！（2018-11-17）
问：卖股票和买入成本无关，这句话怎么理解？
答：买股票和这只股票过去是多少钱没关系，就像卖股票和买入成本无关一样。搞不懂这点就是trader，当然做个赚钱的trader也不错哈。（2012-01-28）
问：好公司要拿住，这句话怎么理解？
答：真懂了就拿得住，不需要什么技巧。再说一下关于”拿住”的观点：买股票（公司）和其曾经到过什么价没关，卖股票和买入价无关。不要老以为谁是”高手”，也不要老想着成为”高手”，老老实实找些自己能看懂的好公司，好价钱时买下拿着就好了。老巴讲过，最好的公司就是永远都不想卖的公司。一生找到几个这种公司，想不发达也难啊。（2015-01-13）
问：什么时候卖苹果？
答：好公司是不需要卖的！（2018-09-30）
问：对我而言，感觉上搜狐的最大不确定性在其对视频的不断的大力投入，这是卖出的理由吗？
答：对我而言，感觉上搜狐的最大不确定性在其对视频的不断的大力投入。视频是个差异化很小的产品，一堆有钱的公司拼在一起，结局恐怕不太好。（2012-05-04）
问：为什么卖网易？
答：因为丁磊就是个大孩子，那么多钱放他手里不放心，虽然股价证明我可能卖错了。（2018-09-30）
问：好公司价格不太重要，过的去就行，这句话怎么理解？
答：用10年看就明白了。今天你看茅台，你觉得120买的和180买的有多大区别？当然，你如果知道茅台会到120则不一样。很久以前我说过，苹果400块很便宜，500块也很便宜，到600时我依然说还是很便宜（在1/7之前），现在看是不是就容易明白了？（2019-05-20）
问：什么情况下可以卖出？
答：卖出可能会多一个因素，就是没人出价怎么办，尤其是想卖掉自己认为不好的公司时。（投资逻辑篇）
问：我对万科的了解就远远不如对网易的了解，所以赚的少点是合理的，这句话怎么理解？
答：呵呵，你如果能够真正了解你的投资标的时才能拿得住啊。我对万科的了解就远远不如对网易的了解，所以赚的少点是合理的。（2010-03-18）
💡 卖出的三个合理理由
根据段永平的投资逻辑，卖出的合理理由只有三个：
- 发现买错了——公司基本面恶化，或者发现自己当初的判断是错的
- 有更好的标的——有更好的公司，价格更便宜，自己更懂
- 价格离谱——价格远远超出合理估值（但这种情况对好公司很少发生）
不合理的卖出理由：
- 因为亏损了想止损
- 因为涨了很多想锁定利润
- 因为市场下跌感到恐惧
- 因为有人说这只股票要跌
🔗 相关笔记
相关概念 买股票就是买公司 · 长期主义 · 能力圈 · 卖出逻辑 相关人物 段永平 · 巴菲特 相关公司 苹果 · 茅台 · 网易 相关主题 买卖时机与持股逻辑篇精选 · 段永平的经典投资案例