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拼多多拼多多

15 min read

Pinduoduo

“Costco + Disney” — Duan Yongping’s most important Chinese internet investment

🏢 Company Profile

拼多多 is an e-commerce platform founded by 黄峥, and also 段永平’s most important Chinese internet investment. Duan Yongping participated in Pre-IPO investment before Pinduoduo’s IPO, with the reason being “I have very high trust in Colin Huang.” He uses “Costco + Disney” to define Pinduoduo’s 生意模式 — what he considers the most accurate description.

📅 Investment Timeline

TimeEventDuan Yongping’s Judgment
July 10, 2018Before Pinduoduo IPO”I plan to buy some Pre-IPO again”
July 22, 2018Pinduoduo listed”Give them 10 years and everyone will see how formidable they are”
July 28, 2018Added after listing”I bought some Pinduoduo today too… I haven’t had the desire to buy a company in many years”
July 31, 2018Continued optimism”For this traffic volume of Pinduoduo in the future, earning 20-30 billion RMB per year shouldn’t be a problem”
September 2018Characterized as VC”This is indeed my current view, so I’ve never recommended large-scale investment”
April 2019Continued holding”Costco + Disney — this definition is interesting”

💡 Why Duan Yongping Invested in Pinduoduo

  • Trust in 黄峥: 段永平 said “I haven’t used Pinduoduo myself but I have very high trust in Colin Huang! Give him 10 years and everyone will see how formidable they are” — this reflects 能力圈 applied to judging people.
  • “Costco + Disney” 生意模式: Duan Yongping said “Costco + Disney — this definition is interesting, and it would be hard to find a better one” — good 生意模式 can be explained in one sentence.
  • 差异化 competition: Pinduoduo serves users “outside the Fifth Ring Road,” an underserved differentiated market — aligned with Duan Yongping’s 差异化 philosophy.
  • Inheritance of 本分 culture: Duan Yongping said Colin Huang “under Duan’s influence gradually established a culture of doing the right thing, consumer orientation, differentiated competition” — this is inheritance from 步步高 culture.
  • Power of 企业文化: Duan Yongping said “I believe in the power of corporate culture! I won’t consider selling my Pinduoduo stock within 10 years, but if opportunities arise I’ll continue buying.”

💡 How Duan Yongping Characterized This Investment

Duan Yongping explicitly characterized his Pinduoduo investment as “venture capital” rather than his usual value investing:

“By venture capital I mean: with such a group of people, such a culture, such a business model, if they continue developing like this, isn’t it possible they could split the world equally with Taobao in 10 years? If they achieve that, shareholder returns will naturally be high. Where’s the risk part? If I knew it wouldn’t be VC.” — Duan Yongping (Source: Business Logic Volume, 2018-09-02)

This differs from his logic for investing in 网易 — when he invested in NetEase he “understood gaming very well and was very certain they would make lots of money in the future”; for Pinduoduo he admitted “at my current level I still don’t know whether they can eventually earn profits commensurate with their current market cap.”

💬 Excerpts from Original Text

“I haven’t used Pinduoduo myself but I have very high trust in Colin Huang! Give him 10 years and everyone will see how formidable they are. Pinduoduo has been around less than three years; some issues are normal. I think they’ll be very formidable in 10 years, if they can last that long.” — Duan Yongping (Source: Business Logic Volume, 2018-07-22)

“Costco + Disney — this definition is interesting, and it would be hard to find a better one.” — Duan Yongping (Source: Business Logic Volume, 2019-04-25)

“I plan to buy some Pre-IPO again. Perhaps in 10 years people will discover that the era when you couldn’t find competitors even with a telescope has passed.” — Duan Yongping (Source: Business Logic Volume, 2018-07-10)

“I bought some Pinduoduo today (7.28) too. Although I already have quite a bit at much cheaper prices, I still want to buy more. I haven’t had the desire to buy a company for many years, but I feel if there are opportunities, I’ll buy more Pinduoduo. I believe in the power of corporate culture! I won’t consider selling my Pinduoduo stock within 10 years, but if opportunities arise I’ll continue buying.” — Duan Yongping (Source: Business Logic Volume, 2018-07-28)

“If Pinduoduo can get through its difficulties, then for this traffic volume of Pinduoduo in the future, earning 20-30 billion RMB profit per year shouldn’t be a problem, right?” — Duan Yongping (Source: Business Logic Volume, 2018-07-31)

“The only reason I think can justify doing VC is that under their current growth trajectory, I believe their good culture ultimately has a decent probability of producing good results.” — Duan Yongping (Source: Business Logic Volume, 2018-08-31)

“I believe their ‘doing the right thing’ culture will help them find non-short-termist solutions.” — Duan Yongping (Source: Business Logic Volume, 2018-09-05)

⚠️ Common Misconceptions

  • ❌ “Duan Yongping invested in Pinduoduo because he understood its business model” — Correct understanding: Duan Yongping explicitly said “I did invest in Pinduoduo because I like Colin Huang” and characterized this investment as “venture capital,” admitting “at my current level I still don’t know whether they can eventually earn profits commensurate with their current market cap.” (Source: Business Logic Volume, 2018-09-02)

  • ❌ “Duan Yongping recommends everyone buy Pinduoduo” — Correct understanding: Duan Yongping explicitly said “I’ve never recommended anyone invest in Pinduoduo, and currently won’t recommend it either, because I don’t know how Pinduoduo will ultimately turn out, so I feel at best it can only be viewed by VC standards.” (Source: Business Logic Volume, 2019-05-28)

📚 Investment Insights

  • Investing in people matters more than investing in companies: Duan Yongping’s core reason for investing in Pinduoduo was trust in 黄峥 — “I know him and I trust him.” This is 能力圈 applied to judging people.
  • Good 生意模式 can be explained in one sentence: “Costco + Disney” — exactly what 巴菲特 meant by “great businesses can usually be explained clearly in just one paragraph.”
  • 长期主义 perspective: Duan Yongping said “give them 10 years” — embodiment of 长期主义 in investment.
  • Difference between VC and value investing: Duan Yongping characterized Pinduoduo as venture capital rather than his typical value investing — showing he has clear awareness of his 能力圈 boundaries and won’t make large commitments to uncertain things.

🔗 Related Notes

Related Concepts 生意模式 · 差异化 · 本分 · 长期主义 · 能力圈 · 企业文化 Related People 段永平 · 黄峥 Related Companies 腾讯 · 苹果 · 茅台 · 网易 Related Topics 好公司的标准 · 段永平的经典投资案例

拼多多

“Costco + Disney”——段永平最重要的中国互联网投资

🏢 公司简介

拼多多是黄峥创立的电商平台，也是段永平最重要的中国互联网投资。段永平在拼多多 IPO 前就参与了 Pre-IPO 投资，理由是”我对黄峥有很高的信任度”。他用”Costco + Disney”来定义拼多多的生意模式——这是他认为最准确的描述。

📅 投资时间线

时间事件段永平的判断
2018年7月10日拼多多 IPO 前”我计划再一次买点 PreIPO”
2018年7月22日拼多多上市”给他10年时间，大家会看到他们厉害的地方”
2018年7月28日上市后加仓”我今天也买了些拼多多……我已经好些年没有买公司的欲望了”
2018年7月31日持续看好”未来拼多多这个流量，怎么着一年200-300亿（人民币）的利润似乎不应该是问题”
2018年9月定性为风投”这确实是我目前的观点，所以一直不建议大比例投入”
2019年4月持续持有”Costco + Disney，这个定义有点意思”

💡 段永平为什么投资拼多多

  • 对黄峥的信任：段永平说”我还没用过拼多多但我对黄峥有很高的信任度！给他10年时间，大家会看到他们厉害的地方的”——这是能力圈在人的判断上的体现。
  • “Costco + Disney”的生意模式：段永平说”Costco + Disney，这个定义有点意思，也很难找到更好的定义了”——好的生意模式一句话就能说清楚。
  • 差异化竞争：拼多多服务的是”五环外”用户，是未曾深耕的差异化市场——这与段永平的差异化理念一致。
  • 本分文化的传承：段永平说黄峥”在段总的影响下，逐渐建立了本分文化，消费者导向，差异化竞争”——这是步步高文化的传承。
  • 企业文化的力量：段永平说”我相信企业文化的力量！拼多多股票10年内是我是不会考虑卖的，但有机会我会继续买。”

💡 段永平如何定性这笔投资

段永平明确把拼多多定性为”风投”，而非他通常的价值投资：

“这里风投的意思是：这么一帮人，这样一种文化，这样一个生意模式，如果一直这么发展下去，10年后跟淘宝平分天下还是有可能的吧？如果他们做到了，股东回报自然高。风险的部分在哪里呢？我要知道就不是风投了。” — 段永平（来源：商业逻辑篇，2018-09-02）

这与他投网易的逻辑不同——投网易时他”非常懂游戏，当时非常确定他们将来会赚很多钱”；投拼多多时他坦承”目前的水平依然不知道他们未来能不能赚到符合目前市值的利润”。

💬 原文摘录

“我还没用过拼多多但我对黄峥有很高的信任度！给他10年时间，大家会看到他们厉害的地方的。拼多多才成立不到三年，有些毛病很正常。我觉得10年后他们会非常厉害，如果能够有10年的话。” — 段永平（来源：商业逻辑篇，2018-07-22）

“Costco + Disney，这个定义有点意思，也很难找到更好的定义了。” — 段永平（来源：商业逻辑篇，2019-04-25）

“我计划再一次买点 PreIPO。也许10年后人们会发现拿着望远镜也找不到对手的年代已经过去了。” — 段永平（来源：商业逻辑篇，2018-07-10）

“我今天（7.28）也买了些拼多多。虽然我已经有不少了，而且价格便宜很多，但我还是想再多买些。我已经好些年没有买公司的欲望了，但我觉得有机会的话，我会多买些拼多多。我相信企业文化的力量！拼多多股票10年内是我是不会考虑卖的，但有机会我会继续买。” — 段永平（来源：商业逻辑篇，2018-07-28）

“如果拼多多能渡过他的难关的话，未来拼多多这个流量，怎么着一年200-300亿（人民币）的利润似乎不应该是问题吧？” — 段永平（来源：商业逻辑篇，2018-07-31）

“唯一我觉得可以做风投的理由就是，在目前这种成长情况下，我相信他们的好文化最终会有不错的概率会带来好结果。” — 段永平（来源：商业逻辑篇，2018-08-31）

“我相信他们本分的文化会让他们找到非急功近利的办法的。” — 段永平（来源：商业逻辑篇，2018-09-05）

⚠️ 常见误区

  • ❌ “段永平投拼多多是因为看懂了拼多多的商业模式” — 正解：段永平明确说”我投拼多多确实是因为喜欢黄峥”，并把这笔投资定性为”风投”，坦承”目前的水平依然不知道他们未来能不能赚到符合目前市值的利润”。（来源：商业逻辑篇，2018-09-02）

  • ❌ “段永平推荐大家买拼多多” — 正解：段永平明确说”我从来没推荐过大家投资拼多多，目前也不会推荐，因为我不清楚拼多多到底最后会如何，所以觉得顶多只能按风投的标准去看拼多多。“（来源：商业逻辑篇，2019-05-28）

📚 投资启示

  • 投人比投公司更重要：段永平投拼多多，核心是对黄峥的信任——“我了解他，我信任他”。这是能力圈在人的判断上的体现。
  • 好的生意模式一句话就能说清楚：“Costco + Disney”——这正是巴菲特说的”伟大的生意一般只要一个paragraph就可以说得很清楚”。
  • 长期主义的眼光：段永平说”给他10年时间”——这是长期主义在投资中的体现。
  • 风投与价值投资的区别：段永平把拼多多定性为风投，而非他通常的价值投资——这说明他对自己的能力圈边界有清醒认识，不确定的事情不会大比例投入。

🔗 相关笔记

相关概念 生意模式 · 差异化 · 本分 · 长期主义 · 能力圈 · 企业文化 相关人物 段永平 · 黄峥 相关公司 腾讯 · 苹果 · 茅台 · 网易 相关主题 好公司的标准 · 段永平的经典投资案例

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