买卖时机与持股逻辑篇精选
Selected Quotes on Buy/Sell Timing & Holding Logic
💡 Core Golden Quotes
- “When I buy every stock, I intend not to sell it, including Moutai”
- “Value investing is long-term investing (looking at a company from a long-term perspective), but long-term investing is not necessarily value investing (stubbornly holding onto one stock)”
- “Finding a great company is very hard—don’t sell just for a small price difference”
- “There’s no more absurd reason to buy than ‘because the stock has gone up a lot’”
- “For companies I don’t understand well, I want to sell whether it goes up or down”
❓ Selected Q&A
Q: Does value investing require long-term holding?
A: I always feel that saying value investing should be held long-term is a misunderstanding of value investing. The biggest misunderstanding is nothing more than “long-term holding equals value investing.” However, once you’ve bought a good stock at a cheap price, it’s best not to sell lightly. (2010-03-25)
Q: What’s the relationship between value investing and long-term investing?
A: Value investing is long-term investing (looking at a company from a long-term perspective), but long-term investing is not necessarily value investing (stubbornly holding onto one stock). Long-term holding in value investing only applies when you’ve bought the right stock. (2010-12-02)
Q: When you say you intend not to sell every stock you buy, what does that mean?
A: When I buy every stock, I intend not to sell it, including Moutai. (2019-08-21)
Q: When holding shares in a great company that becomes overvalued, should you sell or continue holding?
A: This is a difficult question with no universally correct answer. Old Buffett’s view is that slightly overvalued shouldn’t be sold—almost every time he sold, he was proven wrong. I’m slowly coming to understand Old Buffett’s view now. Finding a great company is very hard; don’t sell for a small price difference. (2019-03-20)
Q: How should we understand “There’s no more absurd reason to buy than because the stock has gone up a lot”?
A: There’s no more absurd reason to buy than because the stock has gone up a lot. (2015-06-26)
Q: If it really is a good company but the price keeps getting higher while you wait, what should you do?
A: If it really is a good company, what’s abnormal about the price keeping going higher as you wait? (2013-06-17)
Q: You said for companies you don’t understand well, you want to sell whether it goes up or down—what does that mean?
A: For companies I don’t understand well, I want to sell whether it goes up or down. (2020-08-04, discussing selling Facebook)
Q: When should stocks be sold?
A: If you discover you bought the wrong stock or wrong company, you should get out quickly—otherwise losses will grow larger later on. But most people usually hope to wait until they break even before selling. (2018-07)
Q: What does “the shallower your understanding, the greater your chance of losing” mean?
A: The shallower your understanding, the greater your chance of losing, and you’ll earn less too, because you’ll sell as soon as it rises a little. (Investment Logic Chapter)
Q: Is value investing risky?
A: The risk of value investing shouldn’t be greater than driving out on the street; speculation’s risk won’t be less than going to a casino. The most dangerous type might be the half-informed kind: those who claim to be value investors and know that value investing requires holding for the long term (knowing the “what” but not the “why”), but end up buying wrong stocks and stubbornly holding them long-term anyway. (2011-03-01)
Q: When is the best time to buy?
A: Stocks should be bought when their price is below intrinsic value. Whether it should be 40% or 50% (margin of safety) or some other number depends entirely on each investor’s opportunity cost situation. (2010-05-25)
Q: If a fully invested stock continues to plunge, would you borrow money to buy more?
A: I never borrow money to buy stocks. No matter how confident you are, absolutely never use margin. (2013-02-19)
Q: You said you’ve truly invested in at most five or six companies from start to finish—what does that mean?
A: From start to finish, I’ve truly invested in at most five or six companies. I’ve sold some, and I generally hold around three companies. Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway has a market cap over $100 billion yet only holds about ten-plus companies. I’m not afraid of concentration—I’m not just concentrated, I’m absolutely concentrated. (Absolute Concentration)
Q: What are your investment criteria?
A: My investment criteria are very simple: within my circle of competence, find companies with high long-term returns and hold them. (2019-03-16)
🔗 Related Notes
Related Concepts Buying Logic · Selling Logic · Margin of Safety · Concentrated Investing · Long-termism Related People Duan Yongping · Warren Buffett Related Topics Logic of Concentrated Investing · How to Value Companies · How to View Market Volatility
买卖时机与持股逻辑篇精选
💡 核心金句
- “每个股票我买的时候都是打算不卖的，包括茅台”
- “价值投资就是长期投资（从长期来看一个企业），但长期投资不一定是价值投资（死抱一只股票）”
- “找到一个伟大公司非常难，不要为一点点差价就卖掉了”
- “没有比因为股票涨了很多而买入更荒唐的理由了”
- “对自己不够了解的公司，涨了也想卖跌了也想卖”
❓ 精选问答
问：价值投资是不是要长期持有？
答：我总觉得价值投资就应该长期持有的说法是对价值投资的误解。误解最大的无过于”长期持有就是价值投资”了。但是，买到了便宜的好股票最好不要轻易出手。（2010-03-25）
问：价值投资和长期投资的关系是什么？
答：价值投资就是长期投资（从长期来看一个企业），但长期投资不一定是价值投资（死抱一只股票）。价值投资的长期持有是在买对股票的前提下才成立。（2010-12-02）
问：每个股票买的时候都是打算不卖的，这是什么意思？
答：每个股票我买的时候都是打算不卖的，包括茅台。（2019-08-21）
问：持有伟大的公司股权在高估的时候，是该卖出还是继续持有？
答：这是一个很难的问题，没有总是对的答案。老巴的观点一点点高估不应该卖，几乎每次他卖了后都被证明是错的。我现在也慢慢理解老巴的观点了。找到一个伟大公司非常难，不要为一点点差价就卖掉了。（2019-03-20）
问：没有比因为股票涨了很多而买入更荒唐的理由了，这句话怎么理解？
答：没有比因为股票涨了很多而买入更荒唐的理由了。（2015-06-26）
问：如果确实是好公司，价格越等越高怎么办？
答：如果确实是好公司，价格越等越高有什么不正常吗？（2013-06-17）
问：对自己不够了解的公司，涨了也想卖跌了也想卖，这是什么意思？
答：对自己不够了解的公司，涨了也想卖跌了也想卖。（2020-08-04，谈卖出Facebook）
问：什么时候应该卖出股票？
答：发现买错了股票或公司就应该赶紧离开，不然越到后面损失会越大，但大部分人往往会希望等到回本再说。（2018-07）
问：懂的越浅，亏的机会越大，这是什么意思？
答：懂的越浅，亏的机会越大，而且会赚的越少，因为涨一点就会卖掉的。（投资逻辑篇）
问：价值投资的风险大吗？
答：价值投资的风险不该比开车出门大，投机的风险不会比去赌场小。最危险的可能是一知半解的那种：比如号称自己是价值投资者，也知道价值投资要拿长线的道理（知其然不知其所以然），结果买错股票又坚持长线持有的那种。（2011-03-01）
问：什么时候买入最合适？
答：买股票应该在公司股价低于其内在价值时买。至于应该是40%还是50%（安全边际）还是其他数字则完全由投资人自己的机会成本情况来决定。（2010-05-25）
问：如果已经满仓的股票继续大跌，您就会再去借些钱再买入吗？
答：不会借钱买股票。无论多有把握也绝对不要用margin。（2013-02-19）
问：我从头到尾真正投资过的公司最多五六家，这是什么意思？
答：我从头到尾真正投资过的公司最多五六家，卖掉了一些，我持有的公司一般在三家左右。巴菲特的哈撒韦一千多亿美元市值，也才投十来家。我不怕集中，我不是一般的集中，我是绝对的集中。（绝对集中）
问：我投资的标准是什么？
答：我投资的标准非常简单，就是在我自己能理解的范围内找长期回报较高的公司去持有。（2019-03-16）
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