技术分析与看图看线篇精选
Selected Quotes on Technical Analysis & Chart Watching
💡 Core Golden Quotes
- “My level has reached the point of knowing that I shouldn’t watch charts and lines”
- “It’s not easy to go from watching charts and lines to following Buffett”
- “Trading the bands is speculation—typical speculation”
- “If there were a formula to make big money, everyone would use it, and the ones making big money would be those selling the formula”
- “Any information that looks boring when you look back a few years later should be excluded”
❓ Selected Q&A
Q: Do you understand chart reading?
A: My level has reached the point of knowing that I shouldn’t watch charts and lines. (2010-07-05)
Q: Can you be good at both chart reading and value investing?
A: Hehe, it’s not easy to go from watching charts and lines to following Buffett. I’ve seen many people in this industry for decades who never understood why chart reading can’t make big money. If you become an idealist about chart reading, you’re in trouble. (2011-03-07)
Q: What’s the difference between watching charts/lines and studying a company’s operating history?
A: Studying a company’s operating history is important; otherwise you can’t understand the company. Chart reading looks at stock price history—that is, how others evaluated the company in the past. These are completely different things. (2010-08-14)
Q: What would happen if there were a formula to make big money?
A: If there were a formula to make big money, then everyone would use it, and the ones making big money would be those selling the formula. In reality, many people make money teaching others how to read charts—but they don’t make money investing by reading charts themselves. There are also lots of chart readers in casinos—they’re so miserable. (2010-03-05)
Q: I’ve indeed seen some people who understand charts make money long-term—how do they do it?
A: I’ve indeed seen some people who understand charts make money long-term—and that’s by (writing books) teaching others how to read charts. (2010-05-22)
Q: What are unnecessary pieces of information for investing?
A: While listening to the radio while driving today, I suddenly realized there’s a lot of unnecessary information in investing—like 20-day moving averages, 50-day moving averages, overbought/oversold indicators, etc. Any information that looks boring when you look back a few years later should be excluded. (2012-05-23)
Q: Is trading the bands speculation?
A: Trading the bands is definitely speculation—typical speculation. An investor’s eyes focus on the investment target; a speculator’s eyes focus on others. Hehe, there are always some people who make money during certain bands, while another group loses money during the same bands. (2010-03-26)
Q: Does trading bands violate value investing?
A: Trading bands doesn’t violate value investing. I think trading bands simply isn’t value investing at all. (2010-04-04)
Q: What’s the concept of “catching the bottom”?
A: Let me mention this: personally I think catching the bottom is a speculative concept (no positive or negative meaning). Value investors shouldn’t have the concept of catching bottoms because value investors’ eyes are fixed on companies, not markets. (2010-04-16)
Q: How should we understand that Old Buffett actually hasn’t taught us much?
A: Actually, Old Buffett hasn’t taught us much. If we didn’t understand originally, no one could teach us. (2011-03-07)
🔗 Related Notes
Related Concepts Buying Stocks Means Buying Companies · Ordinary Mindset (Pingchangxin) · Long-termism · Circle of Competence Related People Duan Yongping · Warren Buffett Related Topics Duan Yongping’s Value Investing System · Sell Timing & Holding Logic
技术分析与看图看线篇精选
💡 核心金句
- “我的水平已经到了知道不应该看图看线的地方”
- “看图看线看到巴菲特这条路上来不容易啊”
- “做波段当然是投机啊，而且是典型的投机”
- “如果有个公式可以赚大钱的话，那所有人都会用这个公式，然后赚大钱的就是卖公式的人”
- “凡是过几年回头看觉得很无聊的信息都是应该被排除的”
❓ 精选问答
问：你懂看图看线吗？
答：我的水平已经到了知道不应该看图看线的地方。（2010-07-05）
问：看图看线和价值投资可以两手都要硬吗？
答：呵呵，看图看线看到巴菲特这条路上来不容易啊。我看过很多人在这一行干了几十年，从来就没有明白过为什么看图看线赚不了大钱。你要当了看图看线的理想主义者就麻烦了。（2011-03-07）
问：看图看线和看企业经营历史有什么区别？
答：看企业经营历史很重要，不然无法了解企业。看图看线看的股价的历史，也就是以前别人怎么评价公司的，两者完全不是一回事。（2010-08-14）
问：如果有个公式可以赚大钱，会怎样？
答：如果有个公式可以赚大钱的话，那所有人都会用这个公式，然后赚大钱的就是卖公式的人。其实现实中就有很多人是靠教人看图看线赚钱的，但他们不靠看图看线投资赚钱。赌场里也有很多看图看线的人，他们好惨啊。（2010-03-05）
问：我也确实见过一些懂看图看线的人长期也能赚钱，是怎么赚的？
答：我也确实见过一些懂看图看线的人长期也能赚钱，那就是（写书）教人怎么看图看线。（2010-05-22）
问：投资的不必要信息有哪些？
答：今天开车听广播时突然想起投资的不必要信息是非常多的，比如什么20天线、50天线啊，什么超买超卖啊等等等等。凡是过几年回头看觉得很无聊的信息都是应该被排除的。（2012-05-23）
问：做波段是投机吗？
答：做波段当然是投机啊，而且是典型的投机。投资的眼睛是看着投资标的，投机的眼睛是看着别人的。呵呵，总有些人在某些波段能赚到钱，而另一波人在同一个波段亏钱。（2010-03-26）
问：波段操作违背价值投资吗？
答：波段操作没有违背价值投资。我觉得波段操作根本就不是价值投资。（2010-04-04）
问：抄底是什么概念？
答：顺便讲一句，我个人认为抄底是投机的概念（没有褒贬的意思），价值投资者不应该有抄底的概念，因为价值投资者的眼睛是盯着公司的，不是盯着市场的。（2010-04-16）
问：其实老巴并没有教我们什么，这句话怎么理解？
答：其实老巴并没有教我们什么。我们如果本来不懂的话，是没有人可以教会的。（2011-03-07）
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