Amazon
“This is a company with powerful corporate culture and an increasingly strong business model” — Duan Yongping (Source: Business Logic Volume, 2019-09-21)
🏢 Basic Information
- Industry: E-commerce / Cloud Computing / Technology
- Duan Yongping’s position: Does not hold (considers valuation unclear)
- Duan Yongping’s evaluation: Great company, but difficult to value; both corporate culture and business model are formidable
💡 Duan Yongping’s Core Views
1. Cognitive Shift: From “Thin Snow” to “Great Company”
Duan Yongping’s view of Amazon underwent a clear transformation. Early on he said: “Amazon? Of course it has a long runway, but the snow isn’t that thick — otherwise how could they sustain losses for 20 years?” — This was his questioning of Amazon’s 护城河 depth.
Later he changed his view: “Yes, my understanding of Amazon has shifted somewhat. I do feel this company’s corporate culture and 生意模式 are both formidable. I didn’t really have much concept of Amazon’s business model before.” (Source: Business Logic Volume, 2019-06-11)
2. Why Didn’t He Buy Amazon?
“I know Amazon is a great company, but I also don’t know what it should be worth. However, earning 50 billion or more per year in the future doesn’t seem too difficult for them. Swapping things around is quite difficult — better to do less.” (Source: Business Logic Volume, 2019-06-01)
Core reason: 能力圈 — If you can’t understand the valuation, don’t buy. This embodies 本分.
3. Amazon’s Moat
Early evaluation: “Amazon? Of course it has a long runway, but the snow isn’t that thick — otherwise how could they sustain losses for 20 years?” — This shows Amazon’s moat was built through long-term investment and scale effects; it wasn’t deep from the start.
Later evaluation: “This is a company with powerful corporate culture and an increasingly strong business model; earning over 50 billion per year in the future is highly probable.” (Source: Business Logic Volume, 2019-09-21)
4. Amazon vs. JD.com
“Amazon is good, but US logistics infrastructure is good. JD needs to build its own logistics, I’m somewhat uncertain… Amazon seems like it will be much more formidable in the future. Also, Bezos almost always goes home for dinner and washes dishes.” (Source: Business Logic Volume)
❓ Selected Q&A
Q: What do you think of Amazon?
A: I know Amazon is a great company, but I also don’t know what it should be worth. However, earning 50 billion or more per year in the future doesn’t seem too difficult for them. Swapping around is quite hard — better to minimize such actions. (Source: Business Logic Volume, 2019-06-01)
Q: How do you evaluate Amazon’s business model?
A: Yes, my understanding of Amazon has shifted somewhat. I do feel this company’s corporate culture and business model are both formidable. I didn’t really have much concept of Amazon’s business model before. (Source: Business Logic Volume, 2019-06-11)
Q: How do you look at Amazon’s valuation?
A: Look at how much it can earn in the future; if you can’t figure it out, don’t touch it. My current view of Amazon: This is a company with powerful corporate culture and an increasingly strong business model. Earning over 50 billion per year in the future is highly probable. (Source: Business Logic Volume, 2019-09-21)
💬 Original Quotes
“Amazon? Of course it has a long runway, but the snow isn’t that thick — otherwise how could they sustain losses for 20 years?” — Duan Yongping (early evaluation, Source: Business Logic Volume)
“I know Amazon is a great company, but I also don’t know what it should be worth. However, earning 50 billion or more per year in the future doesn’t seem too difficult for them.” — Duan Yongping (Source: Business Logic Volume, 2019-06-01)
“Yes, my understanding of Amazon has shifted somewhat. I do feel this company’s corporate culture and business model are both formidable. I didn’t really have much concept of Amazon’s business model before.” — Duan Yongping (Source: Business Logic Volume, 2019-06-11)
“This is a company with powerful corporate culture and an increasingly strong business model. Earning over 50 billion per year in the future is highly probable.” — Duan Yongping (Source: Business Logic Volume, 2019-09-21)
📚 Investment Insights
- Only buy when you understand: Even great companies — if you can’t figure out the valuation, don’t buy. This is the boundary of 能力圈
- Cognition can change: Duan Yongping’s understanding of Amazon went from “thin snow” to “corporate culture and business model are both formidable,” showing 能力圈 can expand
- 护城河 takes time to verify: The moat Amazon built through 20 years of losses wasn’t something obvious at first glance
- Don’t touch what you don’t know: Duan Yongping knows Amazon is great but doesn’t buy because he can’t value it — the best embodiment of 本分
🔗 Related Notes
Related Concepts 能力圈 · 生意模式 · 护城河 · 本分 Related People 段永平 Related Companies 苹果 · 腾讯 · 茅台 · 阿里巴巴 Related Topics Duan Yongping’s Value Investing System · 如何判断一家好公司
亚马逊
“这是一家企业文化很强大，生意模式也日渐强大的公司” — 段永平（来源：商业逻辑篇，2019-09-21）
🏢 基本信息
- 行业：电商/云计算/科技
- 段永平持仓：未持有（认为看不懂估值）
- 段永平评价：伟大的公司，但估值困难；企业文化和生意模式都很厉害
💡 段永平的核心观点
1. 认知的转变：从”雪不厚”到”伟大的公司”
段永平对亚马逊的看法经历了明显转变。早期他说：“amazon？当然是长长的坡，但上面的雪不太厚啊，不然人家怎么能坚持亏20年？“——这是他对亚马逊护城河深度的质疑。
后来他改变了看法：“是的，我对amazon的认识有些改变，确实觉得这个公司企业文化和生意模式都很厉害。以前对amazon的生意模式不太有概念。“（来源：商业逻辑篇，2019-06-11）
2. 为什么没有买亚马逊？
“我知道amazon是家伟大的公司，但也不知道应该值多少钱，不过未来他们一年赚500亿或更多似乎不是件太困难的事情。换来换去这种事情难度比较高，少作为佳。“（来源：商业逻辑篇，2019-06-01）
3. 亚马逊的护城河
早期评价：“amazon？当然是长长的坡，但上面的雪不太厚啊，不然人家怎么能坚持亏20年？“——这说明亚马逊的护城河是靠长期投入和规模效应建立的，不是一开始就很深。
后期评价：“这是一家企业文化很强大，生意模式也日渐强大的公司，未来一年赚500亿以上是大概率事件。“（来源：商业逻辑篇，2019-09-21）
4. 亚马逊 vs 京东
“亚马逊是不错，但美国物流环境好。京东需要建自己的物流，我有点不确定……amazon似乎在未来要厉害很多。另外，贝索斯几乎每天回家吃饭洗碗。“（来源：商业逻辑篇）
❓ 精选问答
问：怎么看亚马逊？
答：我知道amazon是家伟大的公司，但也不知道应该值多少钱，不过未来他们一年赚500亿或更多似乎不是件太困难的事情。换来换去这种事情难度比较高，少作为佳。（来源：商业逻辑篇，2019-06-01）
问：亚马逊的生意模式怎么看？
答：是的，我对amazon的认识有些改变，确实觉得这个公司企业文化和生意模式都很厉害。以前对amazon的生意模式不太有概念。（来源：商业逻辑篇，2019-06-11）
问：怎么看亚马逊的估值？
答：看未来能赚多少钱，看不懂就不碰了。我现在对amazon的看法：这是一家企业文化很强大，生意模式也日渐强大的公司，未来一年赚500亿以上是大概率事件。（来源：商业逻辑篇，2019-09-21）
💬 原文金句
“amazon？当然是长长的坡，但上面的雪不太厚啊，不然人家怎么能坚持亏20年？” — 段永平（早期评价，来源：商业逻辑篇）
“我知道amazon是家伟大的公司，但也不知道应该值多少钱，不过未来他们一年赚500亿或更多似乎不是件太困难的事情。” — 段永平（来源：商业逻辑篇，2019-06-01）
“是的，我对amazon的认识有些改变，确实觉得这个公司企业文化和生意模式都很厉害。以前对amazon的生意模式不太有概念。” — 段永平（来源：商业逻辑篇，2019-06-11）
“这是一家企业文化很强大，生意模式也日渐强大的公司，未来一年赚500亿以上是大概率事件。” — 段永平（来源：商业逻辑篇，2019-09-21）
📚 投资启示
- 看懂才能买：即使是伟大的公司，看不懂估值也不买——这是能力圈的边界
- 认知可以改变：段永平对亚马逊的认识从”雪不厚”到”企业文化和生意模式都很厉害”，说明能力圈是可以扩展的
- 护城河需要时间验证：亚马逊靠亏损20年建立的护城河，不是一眼就能看清楚的
- 不懂不碰：段永平知道亚马逊伟大，但因为看不懂估值就不买——这是本分的最好体现
🔗 相关笔记
相关概念 能力圈 · 生意模式 · 护城河 · 本分 相关人物 段永平 相关公司 苹果 · 腾讯 · 茅台 · 阿里巴巴 相关主题 段永平的价值投资体系 · 如何判断一家好公司