Long-termism
If you don’t plan to hold a stock for 10 years, definitely don’t plan to hold it for 10 days
📌 Concept Explanation
Long-termism = Think through clearly before buying where this company will be in 10 years, rather than buying first and figuring it out later.
You plant an apple tree—no fruit the first year, none the second year either. Would you dig it up? If you knew before planting that it takes 5 years to bear fruit, you wouldn’t worry about no fruit in the first two years. This is long-termism—think through clearly before buying “where will this company be in 10 years” rather than checking the stock price daily after purchase.
💡 Core Understanding
1. Long-termism is primarily a pre-purchase way of thinking, not a post-purchase holding strategy.
The focus isn’t “hold for 10 years”—it’s thinking clearly before purchase—if you believe this company definitely won’t be good in 10 years, you shouldn’t buy now. This mode of thought itself constitutes a competitive advantage. Those focusing on discounted future cash flows naturally stand on a different dimension rather than staring at next week’s stock price.
2. Long-termism does NOT equal “buy and never sell”—this is the biggest misunderstanding.
Long-term holding’s premise is having bought the right company. Buying stocks means buying companies is viewing an enterprise from a long perspective, but stubbornly holding onto a lousy stock isn’t value investing—these two things shouldn’t be confused. Even more dangerous is another scenario—only after losing money claiming “I’m a long-term investor.” When you discover you bought wrong, sell immediately; don’t comfort yourself with “long-term.” This integrates with sell logic.
3. Long-term, doing the right thing, thinking about essence—are fundamentally the same thing.
The core of Ben Fen is doing the right thing. Long-termism isn’t a time strategy but a way of thinking—starting from fundamentals, doing only truly right things. Together with ordinary mindset, this forms the underlying logic of Duan Yongping’s investment psychology cultivation.
🛠 How to Practice
Before buying, ask yourself three questions:
- Will this company still exist in 10 years? If you’re uncertain about this answer, you shouldn’t buy. It’s not asking you to predict the future—but to think through whether this company’s long-term logic holds.
- Is your reason for buying long-term logic or short-term catalyst? If your reason is “earnings report coming soon” or “favorable industry policy,” this isn’t long-termism—it’s speculation. Long-term logic should be the company’s business model, moat, corporate culture.
- If the price drops 30% tomorrow, would your judgment change? If yes, your long-term logic wasn’t solid enough to begin with. True long-termists only think “should I add to my position” when prices fall, not “should I sell.”
During holding, only one thing needs checking:
Does the long-term logic at time of purchase still hold? If yes, price fluctuations are irrelevant. If it no longer holds (not because price fell but because company fundamentals changed), then reassess—don’t comfort yourself with “I’m a long-term investor” while continuing to hold.
📖 Case Study
NetEase (2002): Still adding positions at 20-30x gains, ultimately held 8-9 years
In 2002, NetEase’s stock fell below 10 for $1, what courage do you need?”—He’d thought it through before buying, so when it rose to 20-30x he didn’t sell but instead added more.
Source: Investment Logic Chapter, 2011-05-08
⚠️ Common Misconceptions
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❌ “Buying and not selling equals long-termism” — Long-term holding requires having bought correctly. Stubbornly holding onto a bad stock just uses the word “long-term” as cover for psychological reluctance to admit error.
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❌ “After losing money, claim to be a long-term investor” — This is the most dangerous self-deception. If you bought wrong, sell immediately—it has nothing to do with holding duration.
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❌ “Long-termism means ignoring short-term and not paying attention to anything” — Not ignoring, but attending to different things. Long-termists focus on whether the company’s long-term value is accumulating, not where short-term stock prices sit.
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❌ “As long as it’s a good company, you can hold long-term without understanding it” — “I understand Vanke far less than I understand NetEase, so earning less is reasonable.” Long-term holding’s premise is truly understanding this company—what’s outside your circle of competence, even if bought, cannot be held long-term, let alone called “long-term.” (Source: Investment Logic Chapter, 2010-03-18)
💬 Original Quotes
“If you don’t plan to hold a stock for 10 years, definitely don’t plan to hold it for 10 days—otherwise you’re ‘speculating.‘” (Source: Investment Logic Chapter, 2011-12-13)
“Value investing is long-term investing (viewing an enterprise long-term), but long-term investing isn’t necessarily value investing (stubbornly holding one stock). Value investing’s long-term holding only holds under the premise of buying the right stock.” (Source: Investment Logic Chapter, 2010-12-02)
“Many people only remember ‘long-term’ when they’re ‘trapped’…such decisions usually lead to greater losses.” (Source: Investment Logic Chapter, 2011-12-13)
“People focused on long-term enjoy enormous competitive advantage over those focused on short-term—this further strengthens my focus on long-term.” (Source: Investment Logic Chapter)
“Thinking about essence, doing the right thing, and thinking 10 years ahead all mean the same thing.” (Source: Investment Logic Chapter, 2019-07-14)
🔗 Related Nodes
Upstream Concepts (prerequisites for understanding this concept): Buying Stocks Means Buying Companies · Criteria for Good Companies · Circle of Competence
Downstream Concepts (conclusions derived from this): Ordinary Mindset · Sell Logic · Concentrated Investing · Lock It Away for Ten Years
Related Company Cases NetEase (held 8-9 years)
Related Figures Duan Yongping · Buffett
长期主义
不打算拿10年的股票，一定别去打算拿10天
📌 概念解析
长期主义 = 买入前就想清楚10年后这家公司会怎样，而不是买了再说。
你种了一棵苹果树，第一年没有果子，第二年也没有，你会挖掉它吗？如果你种树前就知道要等5年才结果，你就不会因为前两年没果子而着急。长期主义就是这个——买入前就想清楚”10年后这家公司会怎样”，而不是买了以后天天看股价。
💡 核心理解
1. 长期主义首先是一种买入前的思考方式，而不是买入后的持有策略。
重点不是”要拿10年”，而是买之前就要想清楚——如果你认为10年后这家公司肯定不好，那现在就不应该买。这种思考方式本身就是一种竞争优势。关注未来现金流折现的人，天然就站在了不同的维度，而不是盯着下周的股价。
2. 长期主义不等于”买了不卖”，这是最大的误解。
长期持有的前提是买对了好公司。买股票就是买公司是从长期视角看一家企业，但死抱一只烂股票不叫价值投资——两件事不能混为一谈。更危险的是另一种情况——亏钱了才改口说”我是长期投资者”。发现买错了，要马上卖，而不是用”长期”安慰自己。这和卖出逻辑是一体的。
3. 长期、做对的事、思考本质，本质上是同一件事。
本分的核心就是做对的事情。长期主义不是一种时间策略，而是一种思维方式——从根本出发，只做真正正确的事。这和平常心一起，构成了段永平投资心理修炼的底层逻辑。
🛠 如何实践
买入前，问自己三个问题：
- 10年后这家公司还在吗？ 如果你对这个问题没有把握，就不应该买。不是要你预测未来，而是要你想清楚这家公司的长期逻辑是否成立。
- 你买的理由是长期逻辑，还是短期催化剂？ 如果你买入的理由是”最近要出财报”、“行业政策利好”，这不是长期主义，这是在炒。长期逻辑应该是公司的生意模式、护城河、企业文化。
- 如果股价明天跌30%，你的判断会变吗？ 如果会变，说明你的长期逻辑本来就不够扎实。真正的长期主义者，股价下跌只会让他们想”是否应该加仓”，而不是”是否应该卖出”。
持有过程中，只有一件事需要检查：
买入时的长期逻辑是否还成立？如果成立，股价波动与你无关。如果不成立了（不是因为股价跌，而是公司基本面变了），那就要重新评估，而不是用”我是长期投资者”安慰自己继续持有。
📖 案例拆解
网易（2002年）：涨到20-30倍还在加仓，最终持有8-9年
2002年网易股价跌破1美元，面临退市风险，市场极度悲观。段永平买入，理由很简单：他做小霸王时积累了大量对游戏行业的理解，非常确定这个市场会很大。他说：“10块钱的东西有人一块钱哭着喊着要卖给你，你要勇气干什么？“——买入前就想清楚了，所以涨到20-30倍时不仅没卖，反而追加了。
来源：投资逻辑篇，2011-05-08
⚠️ 常见误区
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❌ “买了不卖就是长期主义” — 长期持有的前提是买对了。死抱一只烂股票，只是在用”长期”这个词掩盖自己不愿意承认错误的心理。
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❌ “亏钱了就说自己是长期投资者” — 这是最危险的自我欺骗。买错了就要马上卖，跟持有时间长短无关。
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❌ “长期主义就是不看短期，什么都不管” — 不是不管，而是管的东西不同。长期主义者关注的是公司的长期价值是否在积累，而不是短期股价在哪里。
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❌ “只要是好公司，不懂也能长期拿住” — “我对万科的了解就远远不如对网易的了解，所以赚的少点是合理的。“长期持有的前提是真正理解这家公司——不在能力圈内的，即使买了也拿不住，更谈不上长期。（来源：投资逻辑篇，2010-03-18）
💬 原文金句
“不打算拿10年的股票一定别去打算拿10天，不然就是’炒’了。“（来源：投资逻辑篇，2011-12-13）
“价值投资就是长期投资（从长期来看一个企业），但长期投资不一定是价值投资（死抱一只股票）。价值投资的长期持有是在买对股票的前提下才成立。“（来源：投资逻辑篇，2010-12-02）
“有很多人往往只是在’被套’的时候才想起’长线’来……这种决定往往会让人亏更多。“（来源：投资逻辑篇，2011-12-13）
“关注长期的人，比关注短期的人有巨大的竞争优势，因此更加坚定了关注长期。“（来源：投资逻辑篇）
“思考本质，做对的事情和想10年都是一个意思。“（来源：投资逻辑篇，2019-07-14）
🔗 关联节点
上游概念（理解这个概念的前提）： 买股票就是买公司 · 好公司的标准 · 能力圈
下游概念（由此推导出的结论）： 平常心 · 卖出逻辑 · 集中投资 · 封仓十年
相关公司案例 网易（持有8-9年）