Selling Logic
Selling has nothing to do with purchase cost — the one reason you should NEVER use is “I’ve already made a profit”
📌 Concept Analysis
Selling logic = Selling decisions completely unrelated to purchase cost; only look at whether current company value remains reasonable, or if better alternatives exist.
You bought a house for 1 million. Market price rose to 1.5 million; someone makes an offer. Should you sell? Not based on “I’ve earned 500k” but on: how much is this house worth now? Are there better places to put this money? If still worth holding, don’t sell; if better alternatives exist, switch. Completely unrelated to your original purchase price.
💡 Core Understanding
1. Selling completely unrelated to purchase cost; the one reason you should NEVER use is “I’ve already made a profit.”
Focus should be on company’s 未来现金流折现 (discounted future cash flow), not costs and P&L. Misplaced focus easily leads to selling off good companies found through great effort at cheap prices.
2. Legitimate reasons for selling: found better replacement, or discovered purchase was wrong.
Duan’s reason for selling 网易 (NetEase) was “needed to switch to GE and Yahoo” — not because of how much it rose, but because better opportunities emerged. Another legitimate reason: discovered buying error — must sell immediately regardless of losses; at that moment cost is always smallest.
3. Upon discovering purchase was wrong, sell immediately — cannot use “long-term investment” to comfort yourself into continuing to hold.
When discovering error, correct immediately regardless of cost — it’s always smallest possible cost. Prerequisite for 长期主义 (long-termism) is having bought correctly, not refusing to sell anything ever.
4. Key to holding onto good companies lies in genuinely understanding them, not willpower.
Primary reason for ability to hold on is deep understanding of company and its business, plus 平常心 (equanimity) — stop thinking about purchase cost, focus on understandable future cash flows.
5. Three legitimate scenarios for selling: fundamental changes, better opportunities, severely overvalued pricing.
From Duan’s actual practice we can summarize:
- Fundamental change: Discovered bought wrongly — company’s business model or corporate culture has fundamental problems
- Better opportunity: Found cheaper good company to replace (机会成本 opportunity cost)
- Severely overvalued: Price far exceeds reasonable valuation — future cash flow discount doesn’t support current price
❓ Selected Q&A
Q: When should I sell stocks?
A: There may be many reasons to sell; the one reason you should NEVER use is “I’ve already made a profit.” (Investment Logic Chapter)
Q: Is long-term holding core to value investing?
A: I always feel the notion that value investing should involve long-term holding misunderstands value investing. Nothing gets more misunderstood than “long-term holding equals value investing.” However, once you buy cheap good stocks, best not to sell lightly. (2010-03-25, Investment Logic Chapter)
Q: Is value investing same as long-term investing?
A: Value investing IS long-term investing (looking at enterprise from long-term perspective), but long-term investing isn’t necessarily value investing (stubbornly holding one stock). Value investing’s long-term holding premise holds only under condition of having bought correctly. (2010-12-02, Investment Logic Chapter)
Q: What to do upon discovering bought wrongly?
A: When discovering error, correct immediately regardless of cost — it’s always smallest possible cost. Long ago our company let me manage RMB idle fund investment. Initially perhaps didn’t understand enough, couldn’t fully comprehend, later realized bought wrongly, finally lost small amount selling out, converted entirely into Moutai. If hadn’t corrected mistake promptly back then, probably still losing money today. (2018-07, Investment Logic Chapter)
📖 Case Study Breakdown
NetEase: Held 8-9 Years, Sold After 100x+ Gain
Duan held NetEase for 8-9 years; despite rising dozens of times mid-period, never sold — finally sold after gaining 100x+. Reason wasn’t “rose a lot” but “needed to switch to GE and Yahoo” — had better destination. This exemplifies “better opportunity” triggering sale.
“Before selling most NetEase position, my thinking was: this company’s discounted future cash flows far exceeded market cap at that time, so I wouldn’t sell.” (Investment Logic Chapter)
Internal Company Investment: Sold at Loss to Switch to Moutai
Duan managed company RMB investment, discovered purchase error, sold at small loss, converted entirely to Moutai. This typifies “discovered error → sell immediately” — didn’t wait for break-even, didn’t use “long-term investment” for self-comfort.
“If hadn’t corrected mistake promptly back then, probably still losing money today. Selling losing stocks isn’t easy, but becomes much easier if you understand concepts of sunk cost and opportunity cost.” (2018-07, Investment Logic Chapter)
⚠️ Common Pitfalls
-
❌ “Made money should lock in gains — timely selling secures profits” — “The one reason you should NEVER use is ‘I’ve already made a profit.‘” If company remains cheap, selling after making money is actually WRONG — held 网易 8-9 years, despite rising dozens of times mid-period never sold, ultimately gained 100x+.
-
❌ “Lost money so hold waiting for break-even, can’t cut losses” — “When discovering error, correct immediately regardless of cost — it’s always smallest cost.” Losing money isn’t reason NOT to sell; having bought wrongly is exactly WHEN you should sell most.
-
❌ “Long-term holding is good investment strategy — once bought, never sell” — “In my understanding, ‘not selling’ refers to ‘absolutely’ good stocks. Long-term holding premise requires having bought correct good stock first.” Long-term holding的前提 is买对了, not never selling anything once purchased.
-
❌ “Value investors never sell stocks” — “Value investing IS long-term investing (from perspective of looking at an enterprise), but long-term investing isn’t necessarily value investing (stubbornly holding one stock).” (2010-12-02)
🔗 Related Nodes
Upstream Concepts (prerequisites for understanding this concept): 买股票就是买公司 · 未来现金流折现 · 买入逻辑
Downstream Concepts (conclusions derived from this): 平常心 · 集中投资
Company Case Studies 网易 (Held 8-9 years, sold after 100x+ gain to switch to GE and Yahoo)
卖出逻辑
卖出和买入成本无关，唯一不该用的理由是”我已经赚钱了”
📌 概念解析
卖出逻辑 = 卖出决策与买入成本完全无关，只看公司当前价值是否仍然合理，或是否有更好的替代选择。
你买了一套房子，花了100万。现在市场价涨到150万了，有人出价。你该不该卖？不是看”我赚了50万”，而是看：这套房子现在值多少？有没有更好的地方可以放这笔钱？如果还值，就不卖；如果有更好的选择，就换。和你当初花了多少钱无关。
💡 核心理解
1. 卖出和买入成本完全无关，唯一不该用的理由是”我已经赚钱了”。
焦点应该放在公司未来现金流折现上，而不是成本和盈亏。把焦点放错了地方，就很容易把好不容易找到的好公司在便宜的价钱就卖了。
2. 卖出的正当理由是找到了更好的替代，或发现买错了。
段永平卖网易的理由是”需要换GE和Yahoo”——不是因为涨了多少，而是因为有了更好的去处。另一种正当理由是发现买错了——这时候要马上卖，不管亏多少，这时候的代价是最小的代价。
3. 发现买错了要马上卖，不能用”长期投资”安慰自己继续持有。
发现错了就改，不管多大代价都是最小的代价。长期主义的前提是买对了，而不是买了什么都不卖。
4. 能拿住好公司的关键是对公司的真正了解，而不是意志力。
能够拿得住的最主要原因是对公司及其业务的了解，还有就是平常心——不要去想买入的成本，把焦点放在能理解的未来现金流上。
5. 卖出的三种正当情形：基本面变化、更好机会、估值严重过高。
从段永平的实际操作中可以归纳：
- 基本面变化：发现买错了，公司的生意模式或企业文化出了根本性问题
- 更好的机会：有了更便宜的好公司可以替换（机会成本）
- 估值严重过高：价格已经远超合理估值，未来现金流折现不支持
❓ 精选问答
问：什么时候该卖股票？
答：该卖的理由可能有很多，唯一不该用的理由就是”我已经赚钱了”。（投资逻辑篇）
问：长期持有是价值投资的核心吗？
答：我总觉得价值投资就应该长期持有的说法是对价值投资的误解。误解最大的无过于”长期持有就是价值投资”了。但是，买到了便宜的好股票最好不要轻易出手。（2010-03-25，投资逻辑篇）
问：价值投资是不是长期投资？
答：价值投资就是长期投资（从长期来看一个企业），但长期投资不一定是价值投资（死抱一只股票）。价值投资的长期持有是在买对股票的前提下才成立。（2010-12-02，投资逻辑篇）
问：发现买错了怎么办？
答：发现错了就改，不管多大的代价都是最小的代价。记得很久以前我们公司让我负责一笔人民币闲钱的投资，开始我们买的时候可能了解不够，没能完全看明白，后来觉得是买错了，最后亏了点小钱卖掉了，全部换成了茅台。如果当时不及时改正错误，可能到今天还亏着钱呢。（2018-07，投资逻辑篇）
📖 案例拆解
网易：持有8-9年，涨100多倍后卖出
段永平持有网易8-9年，中间涨了几十倍也没卖，最终涨了100多倍才卖出。卖出的理由不是”涨了很多”，而是”需要换GE和Yahoo”——有了更好的去处。这是”更好机会”触发卖出的典型案例。
“我在卖出大部分网易之前，我的想法就是：这家公司的未来现金流折现远大于当时的市值，所以我不卖。“（投资逻辑篇）
公司内部投资：亏损卖出换茅台
段永平负责公司一笔人民币投资，发现买错了，亏了点小钱卖掉，全部换成茅台。这是”发现买错了马上卖”的典型案例——不等回本，不用”长期投资”安慰自己。
“如果当时不及时改正错误，可能到今天还亏着钱呢。亏钱卖股票不容易，但如果懂沉入成本以及机会成本的概念的话就会容易很多。“（2018-07，投资逻辑篇）
⚠️ 常见误区
-
❌ “赚了钱就应该落袋为安，及时卖出锁定利润” — “唯一不该用的理由就是’我已经赚钱了’“。如果公司依然便宜，赚了钱卖出反而是错的——持有网易8-9年，中间涨了几十倍也没卖，最终涨了100多倍。
-
❌ “亏钱了就要拿着等回本，不能割肉” — “发现错了就改，不管多大的代价都是最小的代价”。亏钱不是不卖的理由，买错了才是最应该卖的时候。
-
❌ “长期持有就是好的投资策略，买了就不要卖” — “我理解中’不卖’指的是’绝对’好股。长线持有一定是在买对好股票的前提下”。长期持有的前提是买对了，而不是买了什么都不卖。
-
❌ “价值投资者就是不卖股票的” — “价值投资就是长期投资（从长期来看一个企业），但长期投资不一定是价值投资（死抱一只股票）。“（2010-12-02）
🔗 关联节点
上游概念（理解这个概念的前提）： 买股票就是买公司 · 未来现金流折现 · 买入逻辑
相关公司案例 网易（持有8-9年，涨100多倍后卖出换GE和Yahoo）