- 标题：The Security I Like Best
- 发表时间：1951-12-06
- 链接：PDF
- 翻译：RanRan
Full employment, boom-time profits and record dividend payments do not set the stage for depressed security prices. Most industries have been riding this wage of prosperity during the past five years with few ripples to disturb the tide.
在经济繁荣、就业充分、公司盈利和股息都创下新高的背景下，股票的价格不可能低迷。过去五年里，这波经济繁荣势头强劲，几乎没遇到丝毫阻碍，大多数行业都借着这波经济繁荣而兴旺发达。
The auto insurance business has not shared in the boom. After the staggering losses of the immediate postwar period, the situation began to right itself in 1949. In 1950, stock casualty companies again took it on the chin with underwriting experience the second worst in 15 years. The recent earnings report of casualty companies, particularly those with the bulk of writings in auto lines, have diverted bull market enthusiasm from their stocks. On the basis of normal earning power and asset factors, many of these stocks appear undervalued.
汽车保险行业却没分享到经济繁荣的好处。二战结束后的一段时间里，汽车保险行业陷入巨亏。1949 年，情况开始好转。1950 年，财产保险公司再次遭遇重挫，承保收益接近过去 15 年的最低水平。最近财产保险公司发布的业绩乏善可陈，特别是有大量汽车保险业务的，在牛市中热情高涨的人们对保险公司的股票了无兴趣。按正常盈利能力和资产因素衡量，许多财产保险公司的股票被低估了。
The nature of the industry is such as to ease cyclical bumps. Auto insurance is regarded as a necessity by the majority of purchasers. Contracts must be renewed yearly at rates based upon experience. The lag of rates behind costs, although detrimental in a period of rising prices as has characterized the 1945-1951 period, should prove beneficial if deflationary forces should be set in action.
汽车保险是一个受周期波动影响很小的行业。对于绝大多数投保人来说，汽车保险是必须买的。投保人每年都要续保，保险公司根据去年的出险情况调整保费。从 1945 年到 1951年，保费的增长速度低于物价上涨速度，导致汽车保险公司陷入困境。将来物价降下来，情况会有所好转。
Other industry advantages include lack of inventory, collection, labor and raw material problems. The hazard of product obsolescence and related equipment obsolescence is also absent.
这个行业有很多优势，例如，没有存货、不需要收账、不需要雇佣大量劳动力，不需要原材料，也不存在产品过时和设备过时的问题。
Government Employees Insurance Corporation was organized in the mid-30’s to provide complete auto insurance on a nationwide basis to an eligible class including: (1) Federal, State and municipal government employees; (2) active and reserve commissioned officers and the first three pay grades of non-commissioned officers of the Armed Forces; (3) veterans who were eligible when on active duty; (4) former policyholders; (5) faculty members of universities, colleges and schools; (6) government contractor employees engaged in defense work exclusively, and (7) stockholders.
政府雇员保险公司成立于 30 年代中期，在全国范围内经营汽车保险业务，符合标准的目标客户包括：(1) 联邦政府、州政府和市政府的公务员；(2) 现役和后备军官以及工资标准为前三等级的士兵；(3) 服役期间符合标准的退伍军人；(4) 公司的老客户；(5) 大中专院校的教师员工；(6) 专门从事国防工作的政府雇员；(7) 公司的股东。
The company has no agents or branch offices. As a result, policyholders receive standard auto insurance policies at premium discounts running as high as 30% off manual rates. Claims are handles promptly through approximately 500 representatives throughout the country.
政府雇员保险公司不聘请代理人，也不设分公司。因此，它的标准汽车保险合同的保费最多比一般保险公司的保费便宜 30%。收到理赔后，该公司遍布全国的 500 多位业务员能快速处理。
The term “growth company” has been applied with abandon during the past few years to companies whose sales increases represented little more than inflation of prices and general easing of business competition. GEICO qualifies as a legitimate growth company based upon the following record:
“成长型公司”这个词这几年已经被用烂了。在比较宽松的竞争环境中，许多公司销售额增速还赶不上通货膨胀，竟然也被称为成长型公司。如下列数据所示，政府雇员保险公司是名副其实的成长型公司。
Year
年份|Premiums Written
承保保费|Policyholders
保单持有人数量
---|---:|---:
1936|$ 103,696.31|3,754
1940|768,057.86|25,514
1945|1,638,562.09|51,697
1950|8,016,975.79|143,944
Of course the investor of today does not profit from yesterday’s growth. In GEICO’s case, there is reason to believe the major portion of growth lies ahead. Prior to 1950, the company was only licensed in 15 of 50 jurisdictions including D.C. and Hawaii. At the beginning of the year there were less than 3,000 policyholders in New York State. Yet 25% saved on an insurance bill of 50 rate in more sparsely settled regions.
没错，昨天的成长无法为今天的投资者带来利润。但是，有充分的理由可以相信，政府雇员保险公司的成长潜力还远远没有释放出来。1950 年以前，在美国包括华盛顿特区和夏威夷在内的 50 个行政辖区内，该公司仅在其中的 15 个行政辖区获得了牌照。1950 年年初，它在纽约州只有不到 3000 个投保人。纽约州人口密集，保费价格比人口稀少的州更高，政府雇员保险公司应该更有竞争力。
As cost competition increases in importance during times of recession, GEICO’s rate attraction should become even more effective in diverting business from the brother-in-law. With insurance rates moving higher due to inflation, the 25% spread in rates becomes wider in terms of dollars and cents.
当经济不景气、价格竞争加剧时，政府雇员保险公司凭借更低的保费肯定能比竞争对手获得更多生意。随着通货膨胀加剧，保费越来越高，政府雇员保险公司实际为投保人节省的保费金额也越来越高。
There is no pressure from agents to accept questionable applicants or renew poor risks. In States where the rate structure is inadequate, new promotion may be halted.
政府雇员保险公司不设代理，所以没有压力，完全可以拒绝不合格的申请人、不续签风险较高的保单。有些州的保费太低，它可以暂时先不在这些州做生意。
Probably the biggest attraction of GEICO is the profit margin advantage it enjoys. The ratio of underwriting profit to premiums earned in 1949 was 27.5% for GEICO as compared to 6.7% for the 135 stock casualty and surety companies summarized by Best’s. As experience turned for the worse in 1950, Best’s aggregate’s profit margin dropped to 3.0% and GEICO’s dropped to 18.0%. GEICO does not write all casualty lines; however, bodily injury and property damage, both important lines for GEICO, were among the least profitable lines. GEICO also does a large amount of collision writing, which was a profitable line in 1950.
政府雇员保险公司最诱人的地方或许是它超高的利润率。1949 年，政府雇员保险公司的承保利润与满期保费之比是 27.5%。按照贝氏评级报告统计，135 家财产保险和担保公司的这一数据平均值为 -3.7%。1950 年，整个行业都不景气，贝氏评级报告统计的行业利润率下降到 3.0%，政府雇员保险公司的利润率也下降了，但仍然高达 18.0%。政府雇员保险公司不是所有意外保险都做，但是人身伤害保险和财产损失保险在它的业务中所占比重较大，这两项业务的盈利能力都比较差。它还承销了大量车辆碰撞保险，这部分业务 1950 年的盈利能力较强。
During the first half of 1951, practically all insurers operated in the red on casualty lines with bodily injury and property damage among the most unprofitable. Whereas GEICO’s profit margin was cut to slightly above 9%, Massachusetts’s Bonding & Insurance showed a 16% loss, New Amsterdam Casualty an 8% loss, Standard Accident Insurance a 9% loss, etc.
1951 年上半年，几乎所有保险公司的财产保险业务都出现了亏损，其中人身伤害保险和财产损失保险是最不赚钱的。政府雇员保险公司的利润率降到了 9% 多一点，但马萨诸塞州的保证保险公司亏损 16%，新阿姆斯特丹财险公司亏损 8%，标准意外保险公司亏损 9%。
Because of the rapid growth of GEICO, cash dividends have had to remain low. Stock dividends and a 25-for-1 split increased the outstanding shares from 3,000 on June 1, 1948, to 250,000 on Nov. 10 1951. Valuable rights to subscribe to stock of affiliated companies have also been issued.
政府雇员保险公司处于快速发展阶段，现金分红很低是正常现象。由于派股和 1 拆 25 拆股，它的流通股从 1948 年 6 月 1 日的 3,000 股增长到 1951 年 11 月 10 日的 250,000 股。它还发放了配股权，可用于认购附属公司的股份。
Benjamin Graham has been Chairman of the Board since his investment trust acquired and distributed a large block of the stock in 1948. Leo Goodwin, who has guided GEICO’s growth since inception, is the able President. At the end of 1950, the 10 members of the Board of Directors owned approximately one-third of the outstanding stock.
1948 年，本杰明·格雷厄姆管理的投资信托收购了这家公司大量的股份，并将它的大量股票分配给信托的投资者，格雷厄姆是该公司的董事会主席。利奥·古德温 (Leo Goodwin) 是政府雇员保险公司的创办者，他带领公司高速发展，目前担任公司总裁。1950 年年末，董事会中有 10 名董事，他们合计持有该公司流通股的三分之一左右。
Earnings in 1950 amounted to 4.71 on the smaller amount of business in 1949. These figures include no allowance for the increase in the unearned premium reserve which was substantial in both years. Earnings in 1951 will be lower than 1950, reflecting the growth of the company’s assets.
1949 年，该公司每股盈利是 4.71 美元。1950 年，业务规模缩减，该公司的每股盈利是 3.92 美元。除了上述盈利之外，这两年该公司都积累了大量未到期保费储备。1951 年的盈利应该比 1950 年低，但是今年夏天经历了一轮保费上调，这应该会在 1952 年的盈利中体现出来。从 1947 年到 1950 年，随着公司资产增长，它的投资收益翻了两番。
At the present price of about eight times the earnings of 1950, a poor year for the industry, it appears that no price is being paid for the tremendous growth potential of the company.
目前，该公司的股价是 1950 年盈利的 8 倍，1950 年还是行业不景气的一年。这个价格没体现出该公司蕴含的巨大成长潜力。