原文信息：
- 标题：The Cult of Warren Buffett
- 作者：Gary Mishuris
- 发表时间：2023-04-23
- 链接：Substack
My first trip to the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting in Omaha was over 20 years ago, in 2002. I was a rookie analyst at Fidelity Investments, and the firm sent a whole contingent of analysts and portfolio managers for the annual pilgrimage. It was quite an initiation into the cult of Warren Buffett.
20 多年前，也就是 2002 年，我第一次参加在奥马哈举行的伯克希尔·哈撒韦年会。我当时是富达基金的一名新手分析师，那一年富达基金公司派了一整队分析师和投资经理参加年度朝圣之旅。这是我第一次接触到「沃伦·巴菲特崇拜」。
The size of the gathering was quite modest by today’s standards, a “mere” 10,000 attendees. Working for one of the largest investment firms had its perks – Morgan Stanley hosted a dinner with Warren the night before the meeting for its most important clients, and I got the chance to ask him a question in a somewhat more intimate setting of only about 200 people.
以今天的标准来看，这次聚会的规模相当小，只有「区区」1 万名与会者。在最大的投资公司之一（译者注：即富达基金）工作有它的好处：摩根士丹利在会议前一天晚上为其最重要的客户举办了一次与沃伦的晚宴，我有机会在一个只有 200 人左右的私人场合向他提问。
I was star-struck. I had read everything that I could get my hands on by or about Buffett prior to coming to Omaha. In fact, I owe my investment career in part to him – it was listening to him speak on campus at MIT’s Sloan School of Management circa 2000 that turned me on to value investing in the first place.
我曾经是个迷弟。在来奥马哈之前，我已经阅读了我能得到的所有关于巴菲特的资料。事实上，我的投资生涯在一定程度上要归功于他：在 2000 年前后，我在麻省理工学院斯隆管理学院听到了他的演讲。正是因为这个演讲，让我从一开始就对价值投资产生了兴趣。
At the Morgan Stanley dinner, I asked Warren what he looks for in a company that he is considering as a potential investment for the first time. I am sure that it was a question he had faced many times, but he was very gracious and didn’t let on.
在摩根士丹利的晚宴上，我问沃伦，当他第一次研究一家公司是否会成为潜在标的时，他看中的是什么。我相信这个问题他已经被问过无数次了，但是他非常亲切，没有表现出来。
He patiently explained that the first thing he thinks about is whether he can approximately estimate the key economic variables for the business 10+ years out. If he can’t, he passes right away. That simple litmus test saved me a lot of trouble over my subsequent 20+ years of professional value investing.
他耐心地解释说，他考虑的第一件事就是能否大致估算出 10 多年后企业的关键经济变量。如果他做不到，他就会马上放弃。这个简单的原则在我后来 20 多年的专业价值投资中为我省去了很多麻烦。
I have gone to the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting a total of 10 times. I continued to read everything that I could by Buffett. I admire him and his accomplishments, and have learned a tremendous amount from what he has said and written. I have even written an article about Warren Buffett’s evolution as an investor.
But I have left the Cult of Warren Buffett. I admire the man, I have learned a lot from him, but I would rather think for myself.
但我已经不再有「沃伦·巴菲特崇拜」。我钦佩这个人，我从他身上学到了很多，但我宁愿自己思考。
A cult? In Cultish by Amanda Montell the author points out that all cults, despite their differences share certain characteristics. A cult-specific language. A charismatic leader. Shared beliefs about the world. A community of cult members who create an echo-chamber of support and reinforcement of the cult’s beliefs.
这是一种 cult（像宗教式的狂热崇拜）吗？在阿曼达·蒙特尔（Amanda Montell）的《狂热崇拜（Cultish）》一书中，作者指出，所有 cult，尽管存在差异，但都有一些共同的特点：一群崇拜者特有的词汇句法、一个有魅力的领袖、一个共同的世界观以及一个由狂热崇拜者组成的社区，他们创造了一个不断支撑和强化狂热崇拜信仰的回音室。
Buffett’s is a happy cult. We need not fear any crazy behavior or drinking from some poisoned chalice. Yet it fits the criteria of a cult quite well.
巴菲特崇拜是无伤大雅的。我们不需要担心任何疯狂的行为，也不用担心喝下什么有毒的鸡汤。然而，它非常符合 cult（像宗教式的狂热崇拜）的标准。
Over my 20+ years of investing I have met many young Buffett acolytes blindly quoting the great man’s investing wisdom without fully understanding it. Professional investors running around calling themselves Warren Buffett “cloners.” Groupies who attempt to gain social status within the cult by posting copies of thank-you notes from Warren or better yet a snapshot of them together on social media. Those strivers attempting even higher position in the cult pecking order might post a picture at some exclusive event or dinner to show others how much closer they are to the Leader than mere rank-and-file cult members.
在我 20 多年的投资生涯中，我遇到过很多年轻的巴菲特信徒，他们盲目地引用这位伟人的投资智慧，却没有完全理解。也有很多所谓的专业投资者到处说自己是 XX 国巴菲特、XX 行业巴菲特（总而言之就是巴菲特的克隆版本）。崇拜者们试图通过在社交媒体上发布巴菲特的感谢信，或者发布和巴菲特的合影来获得在崇拜群体中的社会地位。那些试图在狂热崇拜群体中获得更高地位的人可能会在社交媒体上发布一些独家活动或晚宴上的照片，向其他人展示他们比普通的崇拜者更接近领袖。
Isn’t it ironic? The man who accomplished so much via independent, first-principles thinking is celebrated by blind adulation and imitation. After all, in the Warren Buffett Cult things are true or not based on whether the great leader has said them. His words are truth to his followers.
这不是很讽刺吗？通过独立的、第一性原理的思考取得如此巨大成就的人却受到了盲目的奉承和模仿。毕竟，对沃伦·巴菲特崇拜者来说，一个观点的对错取决于伟大领袖是否说过这些话。他的话对他的追随者来说就是真理。
You don’t see Warren Buffett running around blindly quoting Benjamin Graham, right? Otherwise Buffett’s success would have been but a pale shadow of what he has accomplished.
No – he learns from others but thinks for himself. Yet somehow rather than internalize that truth the cult members are happy enough just quoting him and repeating his favorite phrases. I suspect it’s easier that way. I also suspect it’s not exactly a path to outsized investment success.
他的做法与此截然相反：他向别人学习，但独立思考。然而不知何故，狂热崇拜者们非但没有内化这个事实，反而很高兴地引用他的话，重复他最喜欢的句子。我猜可能是这样学习巴菲特更容易。进一步讲，这或许也并不是一条获得巨大投资成功的道路。
Let me give you an example. One of the most well-worn Buffett-ism is: “I would rather buy a great business at a fair price than a fair business at a great price.” If only I had a dollar for every time I have seen this posted somewhere or used to justify paying a high price for a good company.
让我给你举个例子。巴菲特最广为人知的一个说法是：「我宁愿以合理的价格收购一家优秀的企业，也不愿以便宜的价格购买一家普通的企业。」这句话经常在文章中出现，用来证明为一个好公司支付高价是合理的。要是每次出现这种情境就能得到 1 美元，我现在早发财了。
That’s what Buffett says in public. Think about it – he is trying to position himself to buy businesses in the future from business owners whom he wants to stay on as managers. The cold truth of his value proposition to them is this: you get less money for your business than you would in an auction, but you will be happier about it because it will have a permanent home and I won’t fire your employees.
这是巴菲特在公开场合说的话。有没有这样一种可能：他正在努力做品牌定位，以便以后可以从他希望继续担任管理层的企业所有者手中收购企业。这一价值主张的潜台词是：你的企业卖给我得到的钱会比你在市场上得到的要少，但你会更高兴，因为伯克希尔将给这个企业一个永远的归宿，而且我不会解雇你的员工。
Warren is very polished and understands human nature. After all, are people more likely to sell to him at a below-market price if he keeps repeating the “great business at a fair price” mantra or if he makes it explicit that he is getting their business on the cheap?
沃伦很有修养，也很了解人性。毕竟，你想想看，到底是不断重复「合理价格买好公司」的口号，还是明确地表示自己是在以低价购买他们的企业，能够让企业主更愿意以低于市场的价格卖给他？
Someone once told me that when asked about this quote in private he replied something along the lines that no, he wants to buy businesses at a crazy bargain-level price. Regardless, we don’t need any special sources because we can see what Buffett actually does with Berkshire Hathaway’s cash.
有人曾经告诉我，当私下里被问及这个报价时，他的回答大致如下：恰恰相反，他想以一个疯狂的低价收购企业。其实，我们不需要任何小道消息就可以了解这件事，只需要看看巴菲特实际用伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的现金做了什么。
He has tens of billions of excess capital. He knows plenty of great businesses. They have traded at “fair,” whatever that means, prices over the years. He hasn’t bought them. Why? He is waiting for bargains that promise high rates of return. And paying “fair” prices for businesses doesn’t accomplish that on average. It’s that simple.
他有数百亿的闲置资金。他了解很多伟大的企业，这些企业多年来一直以「合理」的价格交易（暂时先不讨论什么价格才算是合理价格）。他没有买过它们。为什么？他在等待有高回报率的便宜货，而一般来说，为企业支付「合理」价格并不能实现这一目标。就这么简单。
Speaking of returns. I happened to pull up Berkshire’s 20 year stock performance as compared to the S&P 500. Here is what I found:
说到收益率，我碰巧把伯克希尔 20 年来的股票表现与标准普尔 500 指数进行了对比。以下是我的发现：
A few things stood out:
有几件事值得注意：
- Berkshire’s total return is almost identical to the market over 20 years
- This period includes at least two market/economic cycles
- The 10% annual return achieved by the market during this period is consistent with the average of the last century
- Not that it should matter, but to the untrained eye Berkshire’s stock has had declines during the major market sell-offs that weren’t too different from the market’s
- The “buts” some might raise with these facts aren’t likely to be material enough to affect the main conclusion
- 伯克希尔的总回报率与过去 20 年的市场回报率几乎相同
- 这期间至少包括两个市场/经济周期
- 在此期间，市场取得的 10% 的年化回报率与上个世纪的平均水平一致
- 这并不重要，但在外行人看来，伯克希尔的股票在市场普遍下跌的时候也在下跌，这与市场的情况没有太大区别
- 有些人可能会对这些事实提出「但是」，但反驳不足以影响主要结论
What is that conclusion? Why hasn’t Berkshire done better than the market over the last two decades? I don’t know, but I suspect it’s some combination of:
这些情况说明什么？为什么伯克希尔在过去 20 年里没有比市场做得更好？我不知道，但我猜可能是由于以下一个或几个原因：
- Size kills excess returns, and Berkshire’s size is a huge disadvantage
- The market’s returns have been concentrated in a small group of big winners of the kind that Buffett is unlikely to invest in because they don’t pass his “what will this business look like in 10 years” test for him
- 规模扼杀了超额收益，伯克希尔的规模是一个巨大的劣势
None of this is to imply that Buffett has lost his touch or isn’t great. He hasn’t and he is. He would likely crush almost everyone if he were managing $100M in capital. It would be fascinating to know what he would do with that sum. He will never tell us – at the 2023 Berkshire Hathaway meeting in a couple of weeks he will mostly repeat the same broad insights that he has shared countless times before.
所有这些并不意味着巴菲特已经江郎才尽，或者说他并不伟大。他依然能力超群，而且依然伟大。如果他的管理规模只有 1 亿美元，他的业绩可能会碾压绝大部分人。如果能知道他将如何管理 1 亿美元，那将是一件令人着迷的事。但他永远不会告诉我们——在几周后的 2023 年伯克希尔·哈撒韦会议上，他八成会重复他以前无数次分享过的普适见解。
There are many people who go to the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting who aren’t cult members. Nor do they go because they think they will get some life-changing investment insight. They go for the atmosphere. Or to connect with friends. Or to get a sense of community, affirmation and support for a long-term investment process.
很多参加伯克希尔·哈撒韦年会的人都不是狂热崇拜者，他们去也不是因为他们觉得自己会得到一些可以暴富的投资秘籍。他们去是为了感受气氛、或者是为了与朋友联系、或者是为了获得一种一群人在一起的感觉，在长期投资过程中获得肯定和支持。
There are also many cult members who proudly admit to being in a cult, most only half-jokingly. After all, as I wrote earlier, it’s a happy cult.
还有很多崇拜者自豪地承认自己处在一种 cult（像宗教式的狂热崇拜）的状态中，但大多数只是半开玩笑地承认。毕竟，就像我之前写的，这是一个无伤大雅的 cult（像宗教式的狂热崇拜）。
Let’s be honest – it’s unlikely that any of us will approach the greatness that Buffett has achieved in his investment career. There is nothing wrong with giving credit where it’s due and admiring the man and his accomplishments. Or eating a Dilly Bar at the annual meeting for $1 that goes to charity while listening to comfortable sermons from the podium. Heck, I have done that myself more than a few times.
老实说，我们中的任何人都不太可能达到巴菲特在投资生涯中取得的伟大成就。对巴菲特的赞誉是他应得的，钦佩这个人和他的成就并没有错。你或许会在年会上一边花 1 美元吃 Dilly Bar（这笔钱会捐给慈善机构），一边听讲台上舒适的布道。哎呀，我自己已经这样做过好几次了。
Let’s go back to where we started – my first Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting in 2002. As the youngest member of the Fidelity delegation, I was tasked with getting in line extra early so that the portfolio managers could get their beauty rest and still get good seats.
让我们回到我们开始的地方——2002 年我第一次参加伯克希尔·哈撒韦的年会。作为富达基金代表团中最年轻的成员，我的任务是提前排队，这样投资经理们就可以美美地休息一下，同时还能坐到好位置。
Eager to please, I was one of the first few dozen in line and saved the spot for the rest of our group. The crowd behind us was composed of well-dressed people of mild manners and somewhat advanced age. That is until the doors opened.
为了服务好投资经理们，我是排在队伍最前面的几十个人中的一个，并把这个位置留给了我们团队的其他人。排在我们后面的是些衣着讲究、举止温和、年纪有点大的人，但大门打开的一刹那，那些人就不是那样了。
At that point, the line of these previously mild-mannered Berkshire millionaires collapsed into a surging mob with everyone rushing for the doors at once. Faced with the choice of physically blocking retirees from cutting me in line and letting it go, I chose the latter. The cult members would not be denied their chance to bask in their Leader’s glow, no matter the price.
在那一刻，这些之前温文尔雅的伯克希尔百万富翁的队伍变成了汹涌的人群，所有人都一下子冲向大门。要么我需要用身体阻止这些退休的富翁们插在我前面，要么我放弃抵抗让他们插队，我选择了后者。无论付出什么代价，狂热崇拜者都要争取任何一点沐浴在领袖光芒中的机会。
About the author
作者介绍
Gary Mishuris, CFA is the Managing Partner and Chief Investment Officer of Silver Ring Value Partners, an investment firm that seeks to apply its intrinsic value approach to safely compound capital over the long-term. He also teaches the Value Investing Seminar at the F.W. Olin Graduate School of Business.
Gary Mishuris
是 Silver Ring Value Partners 的管理合伙人兼首席投资官。Silver Ring Value Partners 致力于使用基于内在价值的投资方法，稳健地实现资本的长期复合增长。Gary Mishuris 还在 F.W. Olin 商学院教授价值投资研讨课程。