原文信息:

  • 标题:1966 November Letter to Partners

  • 发表时间:1966-11-01

  • 校译:Terrellchen


BUFFETT PARTNERSHIP, LTD.

610 KIEWIT PLAZA

OMAHA, NEBRASKA 68131

TELEPHONE 042-4110

November 1, 1966

1966 年 11 月 1 日

To My Partners for 1967:

致 1967 年各位合伙人:

Enclosed is the usual packet of light reading for the fall semester:

随信附上秋季”常规文件包”—— 算是给大家的“轻松读物”:

1. Two copies of the Commitment Letter for 1967, one to be kept by you and one to be returned to us. You may amend the Commitment Letter right up to midnight, December 31, so get it back to us early and, if it needs to be changed, just let us know by letter or phone. Commitment Letters become absolutely final on December 31 - there can be no exceptions to this rule since I turn them over to Peat, Marwick,Mitchell & Co. at that time.

1. 《1967 年承诺函》两份,一份由您留存,一份需寄回我方。12 月 31 日午夜前,您可修改承诺函内容,建议尽早寄回;若需修改,通过信件或电话告知即可。承诺函于 12 月 31 日绝对生效 —— 无任何例外,因届时我需将承诺函提交给毕马威会计师事务所。

2. A tax letter giving my best present estimate of how the picture will look at yearend regarding 1966 realized investment transactions.

2. 税务函一份,其中包含我对 1966 年已实现投资交易年末税务情况的最佳预估。

3. A copy of my annual sermon, “The Ground Rules. This should be read - slowly - before you execute your Commitment Letter. We should vibrate on the same frequency regarding the fundamental matters outlined therein. If we don’t, we should not be in partnership together.

3. 我的年度 “布道文”《基本规则》一份。请您在签署承诺函前慢慢阅读。我们对其中阐述的核心事项,必须达成共识。若无法达成共识,我们就不应继续合伙。

Any withdrawals will be paid January 5. You may withdraw any amount you desire from $100 up to your entire equity. Similarly, additions may be for any amount and should reach us by January 10. In the event you are disposing of anything, this will give you a chance to have the transaction in 1967 if that appears to be advantageous for tax reasons. If additions reach us in November, they take on the status of advance payments and draw six percent until yearend. Additions reaching us in December do not draw interest.

所有提款将于 1 月 5 日支付。您可提取从 100 美元到您全部权益范围内的任意金额。追加资金不限金额,但需在 1 月 10 日前送达我方。若您正处置资产,若从税务角度看将交易归入 1967 年更有利,这一时间安排能为您提供操作空间。11 月送达的追加资金将视为预付款,年末前按 6% 计息;12 月送达的追加资金无此计息待遇。

Because the door has been shut regarding new entrants (unless they have something to contribute to the partnership other than simply capital), several partners have inquired regarding friends or relatives contributing indirectly through the present partner’s account. General Provision 9 of our Partnership Agreement prohibits such arrangements. A Ruling Letter issued by the Treasury Department in 1961 finds that we are a partnership rather than an association taxable as a corporation, but a condition attached to that Ruling Letter is that we act in accord with our Partnership Agreement as submitted to them. We have always done this. Furthermore partners acquiescing to such an indirect arrangement might find themselves in awkward, tedious and perhaps contentious proceedings if such untoward events as death, disappearance, divorce, tax examinations, etc. occurred. For these and other reasons, it is most important to you and the partnership that you contribute no funds on behalf of others.

因新合伙人入口已关闭(除非其能贡献资本以外的实质性资产),有几位合伙人询问了 “亲友通过现有合伙人账户间接加入” 的事宜。我们《合伙协议》的第 9 条通用条款禁止此类安排。美国财政部 1961 年出具的《税务裁定函》认定我们是合伙企业(而非按公司纳税的组织),但该裁定函的附加条件是我们需严格遵守提交给他们的《合伙协议》,我们始终照做。此外,若合伙人默许此类间接安排,一旦发生 “死亡、失踪、离婚、税务稽查” 等意外事件,可能会陷入尴尬、繁琐甚至争议性的程序。因此,无论是对您还是合伙企业而言,绝不要代他人出资,这一点至关重要。

We continue to enjoy a better than average year but the second half has proven much more difficult than the first half. Our general market securities’relatively undervalued’ category, which substantially outperformed the Dow through June, has performed somewhat worse than the Dow since that time. Our much smaller investment in workouts has done well, approximately offsetting this poor comparative performance in’relatively undervalued.’ Combining all categories leaves our margin over the Dow a shade better than the seventeen percentage points reported at midyear. If this advantage persists through yearend, it should be regarded as decidedly better than expected and partially the reflection of a falling market. With the Dow down 14% at its recent level near 810, this leaves us at about plus 4% (before any payments to partners) for the year to date. Recent markets have been fairly volatile and any further important decline in the Dow will most certainly reflect itself in our figures.

我们仍在享受 “优于平均” 的一年,但下半年的难度远超上半年。我们的 “低估普通股 —— 相对低估视角” 类投资在 6 月前大幅跑赢道指,此后表现略逊于道指。规模小得多的套利类投资表现良好,大致抵消了 “相对低估” 类的不佳表现。综合所有类别,我们跑赢道指的幅度略高于年中报告的 17 个百分点。若这一优势持续到年末,应被视为 “远超预期”,部分原因是市场下跌的影响。道指近期跌至 810 点附近,下跌 14%,在此背景下,我们今年迄今的业绩约为 + 4%(未扣除合伙人收益分配前)。近期市场波动剧烈,道指若进一步大幅下跌,必然会反映在我们的业绩中。

There is some chance, therefore, that our results will be a net minus for the year. If they are anything less than plus 6%, partners who have been drawing that amount will find their yearend capital account reduced from January 1. Also, any result below plus 6% will result in a carryforward of that deficiency which will apply in future years before I, as general partner, participate in any gain attributable to your capital in excess of 6% per annum.

因此,我们全年业绩出现净亏损的可能性存在。若业绩低于 6%,持续提取该比例收益的合伙人会发现其年末资本金账户较 1 月 1 日被稀释。此外,任何低于 6% 的业绩都会产生 “亏损结转”,未来某一年需先弥补该亏损,我作为普通合伙人才能参与 “您的资本收益超 6% 部分” 的分成。

Previous letters have discussed the valuation of our investments in controlled companies. Market price, while used exclusively to value our investments in minority positions, is not a relevant factor when applied to our controlling interests. When our holdings go above 50%, or a smaller figure if representing effective control, we own a business: not a stock, and our method of valuation must therefore change. Under scoring this concept is the fact that controlling interests frequently sell at from 60% to 500% of virtually contemporaneous prices for minority holdings.

之前的信件已讨论过 “控制类公司投资” 的估值。市价仅用于 “少数股权” 投资的估值,对 “控制类权益” 并不适用。当我们的持股超过 50%(或虽低于 50% 但实现有效控制)时,我们持有的是 “企业” 而非 “股票”,因此估值方法必须改变。这一逻辑的支撑点是:控制类权益的售价通常是同期少数股权售价的 60% 到 500%。

The dominant factors affecting control valuations are earning power (past and prospective) and asset values. The nature of our controlled business, the quality of the assets involved, and the fact that the Federal Income Tax basis applicable to the net assets substantially exceeds our valuations, cause us to place considerably more weight on the asset factor than is typical in most business valuations. We have previously used a valuation half way between net current asset value and book value for Berkshire Hathaway. This will most probably produce a figure substantially above yearend market value for minority shares and this same situation is likely to prevail throughout 1967. Early in 1966, the reverse was true In the midyear letter, we announced our intention to use cost plus subsequent retained earnings for Hochschild, Kohn.

影响控股权估值的关键因素是盈利能力(历史与预期)和资产价值。我们控制的业务性质、资产质量,以及我们净资产的联邦所得税计税基础远高于当前估值,使我们在估值时比多数企业更侧重资产因素。我们此前对伯克希尔・哈撒韦公司的控股权估值采用 “净流动资产价值与账面价值的中间值”,这很可能使估值大幅高于年末少数股权的市价,且这一情况在 1967 年大概率持续。1966 年初则相反 —— 年中信件中,我们宣布对霍赫希尔德•科恩公司( H-K )采用 “成本 + 后续留存收益” 的估值方法。

Recent conditions in the securities and money markets raise the question of whether these formulae would be valid under all circumstances. The Partnership Agreement charges me with the responsibility for establishing fair value for controlling interests, and this means fair to both adding and withdrawing partners at a specific point in time. Wide changes in the market valuations accorded stocks at some point obviously find reflection in the valuation of businesses, although this factor is of much less importance when asset factors (particularly when current assets are significant) overshadow earning power considerations in the valuation process. Similarly, a dramatic change in the availability (not so much the cost) of money for financing business purchases has some effect on the value of businesses. While such circumstances may only be short term factors, my responsibility is to value our controlling interests as of a given date (yearend) and all factors (including those mentioned above) existing at that time must be considered.

近期证券和货币市场的状况引发了一个疑问:这些估值方法是否在所有情况下都有效。《合伙协议》要求我为控制类权益确定 “公允价值”,这意味着在特定时间点对新加入和退出的合伙人都公平。股市估值的大幅变化显然会反映在企业估值中,尽管当 “资产因素(尤其是流动资产占比高时)” 在估值中压倒 “盈利能力因素” 时,这一影响会减弱。同理,企业收购融资的 “可得性(而非成本)” 的剧烈变化也会影响企业价值。尽管这些情况可能只是短期因素,但我的责任是在特定日期(年末)对控制类权益进行估值,必须考虑当时存在的所有因素(包括上述因素)。

As conditions stand today, I do not believe any change in our valuation formulae will be appropriate. I intend to carefully consider all factors in late December and possibly decrease our yearend valuation of Berkshire and H-K if conditions (particularly those in the security and money markets) dictate such revaluations. Should a valuation decrease be warranted, you will be advised, prior to yearend, in our December 23 letter confirming the status of your Commitment Letter. If such a revision is made, it will not dramatically change the performance reported on the preceding page.

就目前情况而言,我认为无需改变估值方法。我计划在 12 月下旬仔细考量所有因素,若市场状况(尤其是证券和货币市场)表明有必要进行此类重估,可能会下调伯克希尔和 H-K 的年末估值。若确需下调,会在年末前的 12 月 23 日信件中告知您,该信件将确认您的承诺函状态。即便进行此类调整,也不会大幅改变前页报告的业绩。

If anything in this package needs clarification, call or write John Harding. Beat the Christmas Rush (or, better yet, the Thanksgiving Rush) and get your Commitment Letter back to us promptly.

若本套装中任何内容需要澄清,请致电或致信约翰・哈丁。建议大家赶在圣诞高峰前(若能赶在感恩节前更好),尽快将承诺函寄回给我们。

Cordially,

Warren E. Buffett

诚挚的,

沃伦・E・巴菲特