原文信息：
- 标题：1959 Annual Letter to Partners
- 发表时间：1960-02-20
- 整合：Ponge
- 英文校对：孙萧萧
- 校译：孙萧萧
1959 Letter
1959 年信
WARREN E. BUFFETT
沃伦 E. 巴菲特
5202 Underwood Ave. Omaha, Nebraska
内布拉斯加州，奥马哈市，安德伍德大道5202号
The General Stock Market in 1959:
1959 年股市的整体情况：
The Dow-Jones Industrial Average, undoubtedly the most widely used index of stock market behavior, presented a somewhat faulty picture in 1959. This index recorded an advance from 583 to 679, or 16.4% for the year. When the dividends which would have been received through ownership of the average are added, an overall gain of 19.9% indicated for 1959.
道琼斯工业平均指数，无疑是使用最广泛的衡量股市表现的指数，但在 1959 年，它却有些失真。这一年，该指数从 583 点上涨到 679 点，涨幅 16.4%，如果算上持有该指数收到的股息，1959 年总体收益率为 19.9%。
Despite this indication of a robust market, more stocks declined than advanced on the New York Stock Exchange during the year by a margin of 710 to 628. Both the Dow-Jones Railroad Average and Utility Average registered declines.
单从道琼斯工业指数来看，去年是个繁荣的大牛市，然而，纽约股票交易所中却有 710 只股票下跌，628 只上涨，下跌股票数量多于上涨股票数量。道琼斯铁路平均指数和公用事业平均指数均录得下跌。
Most investment trusts had a difficult time in comparison with the Industrial Average. Tri-Continental Corp. the nation’s largest closed-end investment company (total asset $400 million) had an overall gain of about 5.7% for the year. Fred Brown, its President, had this to say about the 1959 marked in a recent speech to the Analysts Society:
与道琼斯工业指数相比，大多数投资信托的业绩表现欠佳。三洲公司（Tri-Continental Corp.），是全美最大的封闭式投资公司（总资产 4 亿美元），去年总体收益率约为 5.7%。最近，该公司总裁弗雷德·布朗（Fred Brown），在对分析师协会（Analysts Society）的一次演讲中谈到对 1959 年的看法：
“But, even though we like the portfolio, the market performance of Tri-Continental’s holdings in 1959 was disappointing to us. Markets in which investor sentiment and enthusiasm play so large a part as those of 1959, are difficult for investment managers trained in values and tuned to investing for the long-term. Perhaps we haven’t had our space boots adjusted properly. However, we believe that there is a limit to risks that an investing institution such as Tri-Continental should take with its stockholders’ money, and we believe that the portfolio is in shape for the year ahead.”
“虽然我们非常看好我们的投资组合，但是三洲公司的持仓在 1959 年的市场表现却令我们感到失望。像 1959 年这种由投资者的情绪和热情发挥重要作用的市场，对于注重价值并致力于长期投资的基金经理来说（要跑赢指数）真是太难了。也许是我们调整失当，没有踩准市场的节奏。然而，我们认为像三洲这样的投资机构在配置其股东的资金时，应当确保股东承担的风险是有限的。我们相信明年我们的投资组合会有良好的表现。”
Massachusetts Investors Trust, the country’s largest mutual fund with assets of $1.5 billion showed an overall gain of about 9% for the year.
马萨诸塞投资者信托（Massachusetts Investors Trust）是国内最大的共同基金，资产规模高达 15 亿美元，去年的总体收益率是 9% 左右。
Most of you know I have been very apprehensive about general stock market levels for several years. To date, this caution has been unnecessary. By previous standards, the present level of “blue chip” security prices contains a substantial speculative component with a corresponding risk of loss. Perhaps other standards of valuation are evolving which will permanently replace the old standard. I don’t think so. I may very well be wrong; however, I would rather sustain the penalties resulting from over-conservatism than face the consequences of error, perhaps with permanent capital loss, resulting from the adoption of a “New Era” philosophy where trees really do grow to the sky.
你们大多数人都知道，这几年来我一直都对整个股市的价格水平感到担忧。迄今为止，这种谨慎已经毫无必要。按以往的标准衡量，当前“蓝筹股”的价格水平蕴含了很大的投机成分，暗藏着相应的亏损风险。或许其他估价标准正在演化形成，并会永久地取代旧标准。但我却不这样认为。我很可能错得离谱，但是，我宁愿承受过度保守所带来的惩罚，也不愿面对犯错的后果。若采信了所谓树真能长到天上去的“新时代”投资理念，就有可能导致永久性本金损失的恶果啦。
Results in 1959:
1959 年的业绩：
There has been emphasis in previous letters on a suggested standard of performance involving relatively good results (compared to the general market indices and leading investment trusts) in periods of declining or level prices but relatively unimpressive results in rapidly rising markets.
在之前的信中，我曾强调过的一个建议的业绩衡量标准是：在市场下跌或横盘时跑赢指数（与整体市场指数和头部投资信托相比），在市场迅速上涨时跟上指数。
We were fortunate to achieve reasonably good results in 1959. The six partnerships[^1] that operated throughout the year achieved overall net gains ranging from 22.3% to 30.0%, and averaging about 25.9%. Portfolios of these partnerships are now about 80% comparable, but there is some difference due to securities and cash becoming available at varying times, payments made to partners, etc. Over the past few years, there hasn’t been any partnership which has consistently been at the top or bottom of performance from year to year, and the variance is narrowing as the portfolios tend to become comparable.
很幸运，1959 年我们取得了相当不错的业绩。运营完整年度的六家合伙企业[^1]取得的总体净收益率在 22.3% 到 30.0% 之间，平均收益率约 25.9%。现在，这些合伙企业的投资组合约有 80% 是一样的了，持仓仍然存在部分差异是由于资金到账时间不同、股票买入时间各异、支付合伙人资金等原因所致。过去的几年里，并没有任何一家合伙企业的业绩是年年最好，或是年年最差的情况。随着投资组合逐渐趋同，业绩差异也在缩小。
[^1]
译注： 1959 年，巴菲特管理的合伙企业共有 7 家，从年头到年尾运营了完整年度的合伙企业有 6 家。“1959年2月，卡斯珀·奥福特和他的儿子小凯珀，来自奥马哈最显赫家族之一的成员······但是，小凯珀和他的兄弟约翰以及威廉·格伦（后者是查克·彼得森为其管理房地产物业的生意人）还是投资了。他们投资了5万美元，成立了格伦诺夫（Glenoff）合伙公司，这是巴菲特的第七个合伙公司。” 资料来源：《滚雪球（上）》 [美] 艾丽斯·施罗德著；覃扬眉、丁颖颖等译； 中信出版集团。
The overall net gain is determined on the basis of market values at the beginning and end of the year adjusted for payments made to partners or contributions received from them. It is not based on actual realized profits during the year, but is intended to measure the change in liquidating value for the year. It is before interest allowed to partners (where that is specified in the partnership agreement) and before any division of profit to the general partner[^2], but after operating expenses.
总体净收益率是基于年初和年末的市值算出的，这期间支付或收到的合伙人资金要进行调整。这个收益率并非依据当年实际已实现的利润计算得出，而是旨在反映这一年中清算价值的变化。计算收益率时既没有扣除需支付给合伙人的利息（在合伙企业协议中有具体说明），也没有扣除需支付给普通合伙人[^2]的利润分成，不过已经扣除了运营费用。
[^2]
译注： 在有限合伙企业协议中，General Partner（GP，普通合伙人）指的是巴菲特。
The principal operating expense is the Nebraska Intangibles Tax which amounts to .4% of market value on practically all securities. Last year represented the first time that this tax had been effectively enforced and, of course penalized our results to the extent of .4%.
我们主要的运营费用是内布拉斯加州无形资产税，每年需缴纳全部持仓股票市值的 0.4%。去年这项税收首次开征，令我们的收益率减少了 0.4%。
The present portfolio
目前的投资组合：
Last year, I mentioned a new commitment which involved about 25% of assets of the various partnerships. Presently this investment is about 35% of assets. This is an unusually large percentage, but has been made for strong reasons. In effect, this company is partially an investment trust owing some thirty or forty other securities of high quality. Our investment was made and is carried at a substantial discount from asset value based on market value of their securities and a conservative appraisal of the operating business.
去年，我提到过一笔新的投资，其占各家合伙企业资产的约 25%。目前，这笔投资占资产的比例达到了 35% 左右。虽然这是一个非同寻常的重仓比例，但是我这么做的理由却很充分。事实上，这家公司可部分地视为一个持有三、四十只其他优质股票的投资信托。与基于这些股票的市值、公司经营业务的保守估值计算出的资产价值相比，我们买入的价格有相当大的折扣。
We are the company’s largest stockholder by a considerable margin, and the two other large holders agree with our ideas. The probability is extremely high that the performance of this investment will be superior to that of the general market until its disposition, and I am hopeful that this will take place this year.
我们是这家公司最大的股东，持股比例远超第二大股东，而且另外两个大股东同意我们的想法。在我们将之处置完毕时，这笔投资的收益跑赢指数是大概率事件，我很希望今年就能实现。
The remaining 65% of the portfolio is in securities which I consider undervalued and work-out operations. To the extent possible, I continue to attempt to invest in situations at least partially insulated from the behavior of the general market.
This policy should lead to superior results in bear markets and average performance in bull markets. The first prediction may be subject to test this year since, at this writing, the Dow-Jones Industrials have retraced over half of their 1959 advance1.
这个策略应该会在熊市中跑赢指数，在牛市中跟上指数。看来今年我们有望验证这条预言的前半句，因为在写这封信的时候，道琼斯工业指数度已经回撤了 1959 年涨幅的一半以上了1。
Should you have any questions or if I have not been clear in any respect, I would be very happy to hear from you.
如果你们有任何问题，或者我有表述不清楚的地方，欢迎来信咨询。
Warren E. Buffett
沃伦 E. 巴菲特
2-20-60
1960年2月20日