原文信息:

  • 标题:1966 November Letter to Limited Partners

  • 发表时间:1966-11-01

  • 翻译:诚明散人

  • 整理:诚明散人, Terrellchen(补齐英文原文,用斜体表示)


To My Partners for 1967:

致我1967年的合伙人:

Enclosed is the usual packet of light reading for the fall semester:

随信附上秋季学期常用的浅阅读材料包:

  1. Two copies of the Commitment Letter for 1967, one to be kept by you and one to be returned to us. You may amend the Commitment Letter right up to midnight, December 31, so get it back to us early and, if it needs to be changed, just let us know by letter or phone. Commitment Letters become absolutely final on December 31 — there can be no exceptions to this rule since I turn them over to Peat, Marwick, Mitchell& Co.at that time.

1967年的承诺书,一式两份,一份由你们保存,一份交还给我们。您可以在12月31日午夜之前修改承诺书,因此请尽早交还给我们,如果需要修改,可以通过信函或电话通知我们。承诺书在12月31日将成为最终版本,不会有例外,因为届时我将把它移交给Peat, Marwick, Mitchell & Co.。

  1. A tax letter giving my best present estimate of how the picture will look at yearend regarding 1966 realized investment trans- actions.

一封税务信,提供我目前对1966年已实现投资收益在年底时的最佳估计。

  1. A copy of my annual sermon, “The Ground Rules”. This should be read — slowly — before you execute your Commitment Letter. We should vibrate on the same frequency regarding the fundamental matters outlined the rein. If we don’t, we should not be in partnership together.

一份我的年度布道——“基本规则”。在您签署承诺书之前,请慢慢阅读。我们应该在基本事项上保持共振。否则,我们就不应该成为合作伙伴。

Any withdrawals will be paid January 5. You may withdraw any amount you desire from $100 up to your entire equity. Similarly, additions may be for any amount and should reach us by January 10. In the event you are disposing of anything, this will give you a chance to have the transaction in 1967 if that appears to be advantageous for tax reasons. 1f additions reach us in November, they take on the status of advance payments and draw six percent until yearend. Additions reaching us in December do not draw interest.

任何撤资都将于1月5日支付。您可以撤出从100美元至全部资产的任何金额。同样,增资也可以是任何金额,并应在1月10日之前交给我们。如果你正在处置某些投资,而且可以得到某些税收优势,这或许可以让你把交易放在1967年。如果增补款在11月到达我们这里,它们就具有预付款的地位,并按6%的利率计息,直到年终。12月份到账的增资不计利息。

Because the door has been shut regarding new entrants (unless they have something to contribute to the partnership other than simply capital), several partners have inquired regarding friends or relatives contributing indirectly through the present partner’s account. General Provision 9 of our Partnership Agreement prohibits such arrangements. A Ruling Letter issued by the Treasury Department in 1961 finds that we are a partnership rather than an association taxable as a corporation, but a condition attached to that Ruling Letter is that we act in accord with our Partnership Agreement as submitted to them. We have always done this. Furthermore, partners acquiescing to such an indirect arrangement might find themselves in awkward, tedious and perhaps contentious proceedings if such unforward events as death, disappearance, divorce, tax examinations, etc. occurred. For these and other reasons, it is most important to you and the partnership that you contribute no funds on behalf of others.

由于对新加入者的大门已经关闭(除非他们对合伙企业有资金之外的其他贡献),一些合伙人询问了朋友或亲戚通过现有合伙人的账户间接出资的问题。我们的合伙协议总则第9条禁止此类安排。财政部1961年签发的裁决书认定我们是合伙企业,而不是应作为公司纳税的组织,但裁决书附带的一个条件是,我们必须按照提交给他们的合伙协议行事。我们一直是这样做的。此外,如果发生死亡、失踪、离婚、税务检查等不利事件,默许这种间接安排的合伙人可能会发现自己陷入尴尬、乏味甚至可能引起争议的程序中。出于上述原因和其他原因,对你和合伙企业而言,最重要的是你不要代表他人出资。

We continue to enjoy a better than average year but the second half has proven much more difficult than the first half. Our general market securities “relatively undervalued” category, which substantially outperformed the Dow through June, has performed somewhat worse than the Dow since that time. Our much smaller investment in workouts has done well, approximately offsetting this poor comparative performance in “generals - relatively undervalued.” Combining all categories leaves our margin over the Dow a shade better than the seventeen percentage points reported at midyear. If this advantage persists through yearend, it should be regarded as decidedly better than expected and partially the reflection of a falling market. With the Dow down 14% at its recent level near 810, this leaves us at about plus 4% (before any payments to partners) for the year to date. Recent markets have been fairly volatile and any further important decline in the Dow will most certainly reflect itself in our figure.

我们继续享受着好于平均水平的一年,但事实证明,下半年要比上半年困难得多。我们的“Generals—相对低估”类投资在6月份之前的表现大大优于道指,但此后的表现却略逊于道指。我们在“Workouts”的投资规模要小得多,但表现良好,大体抵消了“Generals—相对低估”的不佳表现。综合所有类别,我们高出道指的收益率仅比年中报告的17个百分点略大。如果这种优势能持续到年底,那就应该被视为明显好于预期,也可能反映了市场某种程度的下跌。道指从810点附近下跌了14%,我们今年迄今为止的收益率约为正4%(不包括向合作伙伴支付的任何款项)。最近的市场相当不稳定,如果道指进一步大幅下跌,我们的收益肯定也会随之变化。

There is some chance, therefore, that our results will be a net minus for the year. If they are anything less than plus 6%, partners who have been drawing that amount will find their yearend capital account reduced from January 1. Also, any result below plus 6% will result in a carry-forward of that deficiency which will apply in future years before I, as general partner, participate in any gain attributable to your capital in excess of 6% per annum.

因此,我们今年的收益有可能是负的。只要结果低于正6%,那么从1月1日起,一直提取该金额的合伙人将发现他们账户的年终资本减少了。此外,任何低于正6%的结果都将导致亏损的结转,在未来几年中,我作为普通合伙人在享受6%之上的收益分成之前,将首先弥补这部分亏损。

Previous letters have discussed the valuation of our investments in controlled companies. Market price, while used exclusively to value our investments in minority positions, is not a relevant factor when applied to out controlling interests. When our holdings go above 50%, or a smaller figure if representing effective control, we own a business not a stock, and our method of valuation must therefore change. Under scoring this concept is the fact that controlling interests frequently self at from 60% to 500% of virtually contemporaneous prices for minority holdings.

前几封信讨论了对我们控股公司投资的估值问题。市场价格虽然是用于评估我们少数股权投资的不二之选,但在用于评估我们的控股权时却不是一个相关因素。当我们的持股超过50%,或即使较低但有实际控制权时,我们拥有的是企业而不是股票,因此我们的估值方法必须改变。应用这一概念进行估值时,控股后的价格往往是少数股权同期价格的60%至500%。

The dominant factors affecting control valuations are earning power (past and prospective) and asset values. The nature of our controlled business the quality of the assets involved, and the fact that the Federal Income Tax basis applicable to the net assets substantially exceeds our valuations, cause us to place considerably more weight on the asset factor than is typical in most business valuations. We have previously used a valuation half way between net current asset value and book value for Berkshire Hathaway. This will most probably produce a figure substantially above yearend market value for minority shares and this same situation is likely to prevail throughout 1967. Early in 1966, the reverse was true. In the midyear letter, we announced our intention to use cost plus subsequent retained earnings for Hochschild, Kohn.

影响控制权估值的主要因素是盈利能力(过去和未来)和资产价值。我们所控制业务的性质、所涉及资产的质量,以及适用于净资产的联邦所得税基础大大超过我们的估值这一事实,使我们对资产因素的重视程度远远超过大多数企业估值中的典型做法。我们以前对伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的估值介于净流动资产价值和账面价值之间。这很可能会得出一个大大高于少数股权年末市场价值的数字,而且这种情况很可能会贯穿整个1967年。1966年初,情况却正好相反。在年中的信中,我们宣布打算对Hochschild, Kohn公司采用成本加后续留存收益的方法。

Recent conditions in the securities and money markets raise the question of whether these formulae would be valid under all circumstances. The Partnership Agreement charges me with the responsibility for establishing fair value for controlling interests, and this means fair to both adding and withdrawing partners at a specific point in time. Wide changes in the market valuations accorded stocks at some point obviously find reflection in the valuation of businesses, although this factor is of much less importance when asset factors (particularly when current assets are significant) overshadow earning power considerations in the valuation process. Similarly, a dramatic change in the availability (not so much the cost) of money for financing business purchases has some effect on the value of businesses. While such circumstances may only be short term factors, my responsibility is to value our controlling interests as of a given date (yearend) and all factors (including those mentioned above) existing at that time must be considered.

证券和货币市场最近的状况产生了一个问题,即这些公式是否在所有情况下都有效。合伙协议责成我负责确定控股权益的公允价值,这意味着在特定时间点上对新增和退出的合伙人都是公允的。股票市场估值在某一时刻的巨大变化显然会在企业估值中得到反映,尽管在估值过程中,当资产因素(尤其是当流动资产较多时)超过盈利能力因素时,这一因素的重要性要小得多。同样,金融行业可用于收购的资金(而不是成本)发生巨大变化,也会对企业价值产生一定影响。虽然这些情况可能只是短期因素,但我的责任是在对我们的控股权益进行估值时,必须考虑特定日期(年末)和当时存在的所有因素(包括上述因素)。

As conditions stand today, I do not believe any change in our valuation formula will be appropriate. I intend to carefully consider all factors in late December and possibly decrease our yearend valuation of Berkshire and H-K if condition (particularly those in the security and money markets) dictate such revaluations. Should a valuation decrease be warranted, you will be advised, prior to yearend, in our December 23 letter confirming the status of your Commitment Letter. If such a revision is made, it will not dramatically change the performance reported on the preceding page.

从目前的情况来看,我认为对我们的估值公式进行任何修改都是不合适的。我打算在12月下旬仔细考虑所有因素,如果情况(尤其是证券和货币市场的情况)需要重新估值,我会适当降低我们对伯克希尔和H-K的年终估值。如果有必要降低估值,我们将在12月23日确认你的投资承诺的信中提前通知。如果进行了这样的修订,也不会大幅改变上一页所报告的业绩。

If anything in this package needs clarification, call or write John Harding. Beat the Christmas Rush (or, better yet, the Thanksgiving Rush) and get your Commitment Letter back to us promptly.

如果本文件中有任何需要澄清的地方,请致电或致函John Harding。请赶在忙碌的圣诞节前(或者,最好是感恩节前)将你的承诺书及时寄回给我们。

Cordially,

Warren E. Buffett

WEB eh