原文信息：

标题：2004 Letter to Berkshire Shareholders
作者：Warren Buffett
发表时间：2005-02-28
链接：PDF
中文翻译参考：芒格书院共读群友
整理：孙萧萧
校译：

Note: The following table appears in the printed Annual Report on the facing page of the Chairman’s Letter and is referred to in that letter.

Berkshire’s Corporate Performance vs. the S&P 500

Year	Annual Percentage Change in Per-Share Book Value of Berkshire (1)	Percentage Change in S&P 500 with Dividends Included (2)	Relative Results (1)-(2)
1965	23.8	10.0	13.8
1966	20.3	(11.7)	32.0
1967	11.0	30.9	(19.9)
1968	19.0	11.0	8.0
1969	16.2	(8.4)	24.6
1970	12.0	3.9	8.1
1971	16.4	14.6	1.8
1972	21.7	18.9	2.8
1973	4.7	(14.8)	19.5
1974	5.5	(26.4)	31.9
1975	21.9	37.2	(15.3)
1976	59.3	23.6	35.7
1977	31.9	(7.4)	39.3
1978	24.0	6.4	17.6
1979	35.7	18.2	17.5
1980	19.3	32.3	(13.0)
1981	31.4	(5.0)	36.4
1982	40.0	21.4	18.6
1983	32.3	22.4	9.9
1984	13.6	6.1	7.5
1985	48.2	31.6	16.6
1986	26.1	18.6	7.5
1987	19.5	5.1	14.4
1988	20.1	16.6	3.5
1989	44.4	31.7	12.7
1990	7.4	(3.1)	10.5
1991	39.6	30.5	9.1
1992	20.3	7.6	12.7
1993	14.3	10.1	4.2
1994	13.9	1.3	12.6
1995	43.1	37.6	5.5
1996	31.8	23.0	8.8
1997	34.1	33.4	.7
1998	48.3	28.6	19.7
1999	.5	21.0	(20.5)
2000	6.5	(9.1)	15.6
2001	(6.2)	(11.9)	5.7
2002	10.0	(22.1)	32.1
2003	21.0	28.7	(7.7)
2004	10.5	10.9	(.4)
Average Annual Gain — 1965-2004	21.9	10.4	11.5
Overall Gain — 1964-2004	286,865	5,318

Notes: Data are for calendar years with these exceptions: 1965 and 1966, year ended 9/30; 1967, 15 months ended 12/31.

Starting in 1979, accounting rules required insurance companies to value the equity securities they hold at market rather than at the lower of cost or market, which was previously the requirement. In this table, Berkshire’s results through 1978 have been restated to conform to the changed rules. In all other respects, the results are calculated using the numbers originally reported.

The S&P 500 numbers are pre-tax whereas the Berkshire numbers are after-tax. If a corporation such as Berkshire were simply to have owned the S&P 500 and accrued the appropriate taxes, its results would have lagged the S&P 500 in years when that index showed a positive return, but would have exceeded the S&P in years when the index showed a negative return. Over the years, the tax costs would have caused the aggregate lag to be substantial.

BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC.

To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.:

致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司所有股东：

Our gain in net worth during 2004 was $8.3 bi ll i o n, w hi c hin cre a se d t h e p er - s ha re b oo k v a l u eo f b o t h o u r Cl a ss A an d Cl a ss B s t oc kb y 10.5$ 19 to $55,824, a rate of 21.9% compounded annually.¹

公司 2004 年的账面价值增加 83 亿美元，A/B 股每股的账面价值增加 10.5%（标普 10.9%），自现任管理层接手的 40 年以来，每股账面价值由当初的 19 美元成长到目前的 55,824 美元，年复合成长率约为 21.9%。¹

本报告中使用的所有数字均适用于伯克希尔公司的 A 股，它是公司在 1996 年之前唯一流通股的继承者。B 股的经济利益为A股的三十分之一。

It’s per-share intrinsic value that counts, however, not book value. Here, the news is good: Between 1964 and 2004, Berkshire morphed from a struggling northern textile business whose intrinsic value was less than book into a diversified enterprise worth far more than book. Our 40-year gain in intrinsic value has therefore somewhat exceeded our 21.9% gain in book. (For an explanation of intrinsic value and the economic principles that guide Charlie Munger, my partner and Berkshire’s vice-chairman, and me in running Berkshire, please read our Owner’s Manual, beginning on page 73.)

真正重要的是内在价值，而不是账面价值，而好消息是，在 1964 年到 2004 年期间，伯克希尔已经从一家原本摇摇欲坠的北方纺织公司，蜕变成一个跨足各个产业的大型集团，其内在价值大幅超越账面价值，可以这样说，40 年来内在价值的成长率甚至远超过账面价值 21.9% 的成长率，（想要对内在价值以及本人与查理·芒格经营伯克希尔的原则有更多的了解的人，我建议大家阅读股东手册）。

Despite their shortcomings, yearly calculations of book value are useful at Berkshire as a slightly understated gauge for measuring the long-term rate of increase in our intrinsic value. The calculations are less relevant, however, than they once were in rating any single year’s performance versus the S&P 500 index (a comparison we display on the facing page). Our equity holdings (including convertible preferreds) have fallen considerably as a percentage of our net worth, from an average of 114% in the 1980s, for example, to less than 50% in recent years. Therefore, yearly movements in the stock market now affect a much smaller portion of our net worth than was once the case, a fact that will normally cause us to underperform in years when stocks rise substantially and overperform in years when they fall.

虽然账面价值并非完美，但仍不失为衡量内在价值长期成长率的有效工具，当然单一年度账面价值的表现与标普 500 指数的比较(相关比较参阅首页)，其意义已不若以往，主要原因在于，我们的股票投资部分，含可转换特别股在内，占账面价值的比重已大幅下降，从 1980 年代早期的 114%，到近年 50% 不到，也因此股市波动对于我们账面价值影响的程度也大不如前。

However the yearly comparisons work out, Berkshire’s long-term performance versus the S&P remains all-important. Our shareholders can buy the S&P through an index fund at very low cost. Unless we achieve gains in per-share intrinsic value in the future that outdo the S&P, Charlie and I will be adding nothing to what you can accomplish on your own.

不过即便如此，伯克希尔相对于标普 500 长期的表现还是很重要的，因为股东们现在可以非常低的手续费买到指数型基金，间接投资标普 500，因此除非在往后我们能够以高于标普 500 的速度累积每股内在价值，否则查理跟我就没有存在的价值。

Last year, Berkshire’s book-value gain of 10.5%6 fell short of the index’s 10.9% return. Our lackluster performance was not due to any stumbles by the CEOs of our operating businesses: As always, they pulled more than their share of the load. My message to them is simple: Run your business as if it were the only asset your family will own over the next hundred years. Almost invariably they do just that and, after taking care of the needs of their business, send excess cash to Omaha for me to deploy.

去年伯克希尔的账面价值仅增加了 10.5%，略低于标普 500 指数 10.9% 的回报率，这种平庸的表现与我们旗下经理人完全无关，一如往常，他们已分担了许多重担，我给他们的指示相当简单明确，以继承自家百年老店的心来经营事业，而他们大多都照办，并把多余的资金送回奥马哈交由我运用。

I didn’t do that job very well last year. My hope was to make several multi-billion dollar acquisitions that would add new and significant streams of earnings to the many we already have. But I struck out. Additionally, I found very few attractive securities to buy. Berkshire therefore ended the year with $43 billion of cash equivalents, not a happy position. Charlie and I will work to translate some of this hoard into more interesting assets during 2005, though we can’t promise success.

去年是我没有做好份内的工作，我本来希望能够谈成几个数十亿美元的并购案，好让我们能够再增加稳定的收益创造能力，可惜我一事无成，此外我也找不到什么股票可以买，就这样到年底伯克希尔帐上累积的高达 430 亿美元的约当现金，真伤脑筋，明年查理跟我会更努力地将这些闲置资金转化为较吸引人的资产，不过我们实在是不敢打包票。

In one respect, 2004 was a remarkable year for the stock market, a fact buried in the maze of numbers on page 2. If you examine the 35 years since the 1960s ended, you will find that an investor’s return, including dividends, from owning the S&P has averaged 11.2% annually (well above what we expect future returns to be). But if you look for years with returns anywhere close to that 11.2% — say, between 8% and 14% — you will find only one before 2004. In other words, last year’s “normal” return is anything but.

从另一方面来说，2004 年的股市表现确实不错，如果看看自 1960 年以来的 35 年间，你会发现包含股息在内的投资回报率，年化高达 11.2%，这远高于未来我们预期可获得的回报率，但如果看看最近几年回报率，你会发现 2004 年之前只有一年达到以前的水准，所以说去年看起来“正常的”回报可以说是特例。

Over the 35 years, American business has delivered terrific results. It should therefore have been easy for investors to earn juicy returns: All they had to do was piggyback Corporate America in a diversified, low-expense way. An index fund that they never touched would have done the job. Instead many investors have had experiences ranging from mediocre to disastrous.

过去 35 年来，美国企业创造出优异的成绩单，按理说投资人也应该跟着获得丰厚的回报，只要大家以分散且低成本的方式搭顺风车即可，事实上指数型基金同样可以达到这样的目的，但为什么实际上大多数投资人的绩效却惨不忍睹呢？

There have been three primary causes: first, high costs, usually because investors traded excessively or spent far too much on investment management; second, portfolio decisions based on tips and fads rather than on thoughtful, quantified evaluation of businesses, and third, a start-and-stop approach to the market marked by untimely entries (after an advance has been long underway) and exits (after periods of stagnation or decline). Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful.

我认为这其中主要有三个原因，第一，频繁交易的成本太高，投资人的进出往往过于频繁，或者是花太多费用在投资管理之上；第二、投资决策往往基于小道消息和追逐热点，而不是基于企业的理性和定量的评价标准；第三，错误的介入时点，高买低卖。如在牛市上涨多时后高点买入，或是漫长熊市下跌后低位卖出。投资人必须谨记，过度兴奋与过高的交易成本是其大敌，而如果大家一定要投资股票，我认为正确的心态应该是，别人贪婪时要恐惧，别人恐惧时要贪婪。

Sector Results 各部门绩效

As managers, Charlie and I want to give our owners the financial information and commentary we would wish to receive if our roles were reversed. To do this with both clarity and reasonable brevity becomes more difficult as Berkshire’s scope widens. Some of our businesses have vastly different economic characteristics from others, which means that our consolidated statements, with their jumble of figures, make useful analysis almost impossible.

身为管理者，查理跟我设身处地的为大家着想，希望自己能够提供给各位所有重要的财务信息与看法，虽然随着伯克希尔的规模日益庞杂，要兼顾简洁与明了的困难度大大提高，因为我们有些产业的性质截然不同，这代表将所有数字混在一起的大杂烩，对于分析一点用处都没有。

On the following pages, therefore, we will present some balance sheet and earnings figures from our four major categories of businesses along with commentary about each. We particularly want you to understand the limited circumstances under which we will use debt, given that we typically shun it. We will not, however, inundate you with data that has no real value in estimating Berkshire’s intrinsic value. Doing so would tend to obfuscate the facts that count.

因此在接下来的报告中，我们将按产业类别分类列示各产业的资产负债表、收益数字以及我们的看法，我必须让各位了解除非在极少数的情况下，我们尽量避免对外举债，同时我们也不会塞给你一大堆对于分析伯克希尔内在价值没有帮助的数字，因为这样做反而会模糊了焦点。

Regulated Utility Businesses 受管制的公用事业

We have an 80.5% (fully diluted) interest in MidAmerican Energy Holdings, which owns a wide variety of utility operations. The largest of these are (1) Yorkshire Electricity and Northern Electric, whose 3.7 million electric customers make it the third largest distributor of electricity in the U.K.; (2) MidAmerican Energy, which serves 698,000 electric customers, primarily in Iowa; and (3) Kern River and Northern Natural pipelines, which carry 7.9% of the natural gas consumed in the U.S.

我们持有中美能源控股公司 80.5% 股权（完全稀释），该公司拥有众多公用事业业务，其中主要的项目包括：（1）约克郡电力与北方电力公司（Yorkshire Electricity，Northern Electric），拥有 370 万电力用户，为英国第三大的电力分销商；（2）中美能源（MidAmerican Energy），在爱荷华州拥有 69.8 万电力用户；（3）科恩河与北方天然管道公司（Kern River，Northern Natural pipelines），两条天然气输送管道运输全美 7.9% 的天然气。

The remaining 19.5% of MidAmerican is owned by three partners of ours: Dave Sokol and Greg Abel, the brilliant managers of these businesses, and Walter Scott, a long-time friend of mine who introduced me to the company. Because MidAmerican is subject to the Public Utility Holding Company Act(“PUHCA”), Berkshire’s voting interest is limited to 9.9%. Voting control rests with Walter.

剩下的 19.5% 权益则由伯克希尔三位合作伙伴所持有，他们分别是 Dave Sokol 及Greg Abel，他们是中美能源优秀的经理人，另外一位则是 Walter Scott，他是我个人长期的好友，也是他引荐我投资这家公司的，由于中美能源公司受限于公用事业控股公司法（PUHCA）的规定，限制伯克希尔的投票权最高只能达到 9.9%，所以 Walter 他拥有绝对的控制权。

Our limited voting interest forces us to account for MidAmerican in an abbreviated manner. Instead of our fully incorporating the company’s assets, liabilities, revenues and expenses into Berkshire’s statements, we make one-line entries only in both our balance sheet and income account. It’s likely. though, that PUHCA will someday — perhaps soon — be repealed or that accounting rules will change. Berkshire’s consolidated figures would then incorporate all of MidAmerican, including the substantial debt it utilizes (though this debt is not now, nor will it ever be, an obligation of Berkshire).

受限制的投票权使得我们仅能以相当简略的方式将中美能源的财务数字列入财务报表中，而无法将该公司所有的资产负债以及营收损益列入伯克希尔报表，依照现行会计原则，我们只能按投资比例认列该公司的投资金额及损益，或许在不久的将来，PUHCA 会被取消或是会计原则有重大变革，那么届时中美能源所有的财务数字就会被列入伯克希尔的合并报表之中，当然也包含其大量的融资负债在内。不管现在还是将来，这些债务都不会是伯克希尔的债务。

At yearend, $1.478 bi ll i o n o f M i d A m er i c a n^{'} s j u ni or d e b tw a s p a y ab l e t o B er k s hi re . T hi s d e b t ha s a ll o w e d a c q u i s i t i o n s t o b e f inan ce d w i t h o u t o u r p a r t n ers n ee d in g t o in cre a se t h e i r a l re a d ys u b s t an t ia l in v es t m e n t s in M i d A m er i c an . B yc ha r g in g 11$ 100 million of what it owes us.

截至年底，伯克希尔对于中美能源尚有 14.78 亿美元的次级债务（junior debt），这笔借款将可使得中美能源在进行并购时，其它大股东不用再掏钱出来。此外通过收取 11% 的利息，一方面伯克希尔可获得合理的回报，另一方面我们的合伙人则可避免持股权益遭到稀释，但由于中美能源去年未进行任何重大的并购案，所以偿还了欠我们的 1 亿美元借款。

MidAmerican also owns a significant non-utility business, HomeServices of America, the second largest real estate broker in the country. Unlike our utility operations, this business is highly cyclical, but nevertheless one we view enthusiastically. We have an exceptional manager, Ron Peltier, who through both his acquisition and operational skills is building a brokerage powerhouse.

中美能源另外还拥有一项重要的非公用事业，全美第二大不动产经纪商美国家庭服务公司 HomeServices，不同于公用事业，这行业的周期波动相当的大，但我们仍然对其抱予热烈的期待，我们拥有一位优异的经理人 Ron Peltier，通过其经营及并购能力，正逐渐建立起一个房屋中介王国。

HomeServices participated in $59.8 bi ll i o n o f t r an s a c t i o n s in 2004, a g ain o f$ 11.2 billion from 2003. About 24% of the increase came from six acquisitions made during the year. Through our 17 brokerage firms — all of which retain their local identities — we employ more than 18,000 brokers in 18 states. HomeServices is almost certain to grow substantially in the next decade as we continue to acquire leading localized operations.

去年 HomeServices 公司总计搓合了 598 亿美元的交易案，较 2003 年又大大地成长了 112 亿，其中 24% 的成长来自于六件新的并购案，经由全美各地 17 个中介分支，他们全都保留原有中介公司名称，我们在 18 个州聘雇了 18,000 位业务人员，在往后的十年内，中介业务仍将通过并购的方式继续大幅成长。

Last year MidAmerican wrote off a major investment in a zinc recovery project that was initiated in 1998 and became operational in 2002. Large quantities of zinc are present in the brine produced by our California geothermal operations, and we believed we could profitably extract the metal. For many months, it appeared that commercially-viable recoveries were imminent. But in mining, just as in oil exploration, prospects have a way of “teasing” their developers, and every time one problem was solved, another popped up. In September, we threw in the towel.

去年中美能源关闭了一项锌金属回收项目的重大投资，该计划在 1998 年开始，并于 2002 年正式营运，由于地热发电产生的卤水含有大量的锌，而我们相信回收这些金属应该有利可图，近几个月来，回收运用在商业上似乎可行，但冶矿这行，就像是石油探勘一样，希望往往一再戏弄开发商，每当一个问题解决了，另一个问题马上又冒出来，就这样一直拖到九月，我们终于举白旗投降。

Our failure here illustrates the importance of a guideline — stay with simple propositions — that we usually apply in investments as well as operations. If only one variable is key to a decision, and the variable has a 90% chance of going your way, the chance for a successful outcome is obviously 90%. But if ten independent variables need to break favorably for a successful result, and each has a 90% probability of success, the likelihood of having a winner is only 35%. In our zinc venture, we solved most of the problems. But one proved intractable, and that was one too many. Since a chain is no stronger than its weakest link, it makes sense to look for — if you’ll excuse an oxymoron — mono-linked chains.

我们的失败再度突显了一项原则的重要性，那就是别把事情搞得太复杂，尽量让事情简单化，这项原则广泛运用于我们的投资以及事业经营之上，如果某项决策只有一个关键变量，而这变量有九成的成功机率，那么很显然你就会有九成的胜算，但如果你必须克服十项变量才能达到目标，那么最后成功的机率将只有 35%，在锌金属回收的这项业务中，我们几乎克服了所有的问题，但有一项无法解决的难题非常棘手。由于一根链条并不比它最薄弱的一环更牢固，所以最有意义的是去寻找单环链条——如果你不介意自相矛盾的说法的话。

A breakdown of MidAmerican’s results follows. In 2004, the “other” category includes a $72.2 million profit from sale of an Enron receivable that was thrown in when we purchased Northern Natural two years earlier. Walter, Dave and I, as natives of Omaha, view this unanticipated gain as war reparations — partial compensation for the loss our city suffered in 1986 when Ken Lay moved Northern to Houston, after promising to leave the company here. (For details, see Berkshire’s 2002 annual report.)

下表系中美能源营运成绩的明细表，2004 年在“其它”项下含有一笔 7,220 万美元的出售安然应收帐款的收益，这是两年前我们买下北方天然时连带进来的款项。Walter、Dave 及我本人身为奥马哈地区的子弟，把这笔意外之财视为战争赔款，以弥补当年 Ken Lay 违背承诺，硬将北方天然从奥马哈迁到休斯顿的部分损失（相关细节请参阅伯克希尔 2002 年的年报）。以下是中美能源的几项重要数据：

Here are some key figures on MidAmerican’s operations:

以下是中美能源的几项重要数据：

	2004 Earnings (in $ millions) 2004年收益（百万美元）	2003 Earnings (in $ millions) 2003年收益（百万美元）
U.K. utilities 英国电力	$ 326	$ 289
Iowa utility 爱荷华电力	268	269
Pipelines 管道运输业务	288	261
Home Services 家庭服务	130	113
Other (Net) 其他	172	190
Loss from zinc project	(579)	(46)
Earnings before corporate interest and tax 息税前收益	605	1,076
Interest, other than to Berkshire 利息支出-其它企业债务	(212)	(225)
Interest on Berkshire junior debt 利息支出-[[Berkshire_Hathaway	伯克希尔]]次级[[Bonds	债券]]
Income tax 所得税	(53)	(251)
Net Earnings 净收益	$ 170	$ 416
Earnings Applicable to Berkshire * 归属于[[Berkshire_Hathaway	伯克希尔]]净收益 *	$ 237
Debt Owed to Others 应付其它企业债务	10,528	10,296
Debt Owed to Berkshire 应付[[Berkshire_Hathaway	伯克希尔]]债务	1,478

* Includes interest earned by Berkshire (net of related income taxes) of $110 in 2004 an d$ 118 in 2003.

* 包含伯克希尔赚取的利息收入（已扣除所得税），2004 年 1.1亿美元，2003 年为 1.18 亿美元。

Insurance 保险业务

Since Berkshire purchased National Indemnity (“NICO”) in 1967, property-casualty insurance has been our core business and the propellant of our growth. Insurance has provided a fountain of funds with which we’ve acquired the securities and businesses that now give us an ever-widening variety of earnings streams. So in this section, I will be spending a little time telling you how we got where we are.

自从伯克希尔在 1967 年买下国民保险公司（NICO）之后，财产险便成为我们的核心业务之一，更是促使不断成长的动力来源，保险业使我们取得源源不绝的资金进行投资与并购，让伯克希尔的盈利来源更多更广，所以在接下来的这一段中，我会花一点时间告诉大家我们是如何做到的。

The source of our insurance funds is “float,” which is money that doesn’t belong to us but that we temporarily hold. Most of our float arises because (1) premiums are paid upfront though the service we provide — insurance protection — is delivered over a period that usually covers a year and; (2) loss events that occur today do not always result in our immediately paying claims, because it sometimes takes many years for losses to be reported (asbestos losses would be an example), negotiated and settled. The $20 mi ll i o n o ff l o a tt ha t c am e w i t h o u r 1967 p u rc ha se ha s n o w in cre a se d - - b o t hb y w a yo f in t er na l g ro wt han d a c q u i s i t i o n s - - t o$ 46.1 billion.

保险公司的资金来源在于浮存金，这笔资金虽然不属于我们所有，但却可暂时为我们所用，而我们的浮存金之所以增加系由于（1）保费通常在我们提供服务之前就先收取，（2）今天发生的损失不代表我们立刻就要理赔，其原因在于损害有时要在发生后好几年才会被发现，从而协调及和解（比如说石棉案就是很好的例子），这笔浮存金从 1967 年最早的 2,000 万美元，经由多年的内部成长及对外并购，累积增加至如今的 461 亿美元之巨。

Float is wonderful — if it doesn’t come at a high price. Its cost is determined by underwriting results, meaning how the expenses and losses we will ultimately pay compare with the premiums we have received. When an underwriting profit is achieved — as has been the case at Berkshire in about half of the 38 years we have been in the insurance business - float is better than free. In such years, we are actually paid for holding other people’s money. For most insurers, however, life has been far more difficult: In aggregate, the property-casualty industry almost invariably operates at an underwriting loss. When that loss is large, float becomes expensive, sometimes devastatingly so.

浮存金固然不错，但前提是取得成本要够低，而其成本取决于承保绩效，也就是赔付损失与经营费用占保费收入的比例，当承保盈利时，就像伯克希尔过去 38 年来多数的情况一样，此时浮存金甚至比免费还好，在这些年度，意味着别人付费来请我们帮他们保管资金，然而对于其它大部分的保险同业来说，可就没有那么好过了，总的来说，财产意外险业通常都会承保亏损，当损失过大时，就代表浮存金的成本过高，有时甚至高得离谱。

Insurers have generally earned poor returns for a simple reason: They sell a commodity-like product. Policy forms are standard, and the product is available from many suppliers, some of whom are mutual companies (“owned” by policyholders rather than stockholders) with profit goals that are limited. Moreover, most insureds don’t care from whom they buy. Customers by the millions say “I need some Gillette blades” or “I’ll have a Coke” but we wait in vain for “I’d like a National Indemnity policy, please.” Consequently, price competition in insurance is usually fierce. Think airline seats.

保险业者的绩效之所以不好的原因其实很简单，他们销售的是同质化的商品。保单多属制式而且许多保险业者都提供相同的产品，有些甚至以互助的方式经营（公司系由保户而非股东所拥有），所以利润空间相当有限，以至于大部分的投保人根本就不在乎保单是向谁购买的。大部分的消费者或许会说“我要买吉列的刮胡刀”、“我要买可口可乐”，但绝对不会有人说“给我来份国民保险的保单”，也因此价格竞争在保险业界可说是相当的激烈的，看看航空公司的票价就知道是怎么回事了。

So, you may ask, how do Berkshire’s insurance operations overcome the dismal economics of the industry and achieve some measure of enduring competitive advantage? We’ve attacked that problem in several ways. Let’s look first at NICO’s strategy.

所以或许你会问，伯克希尔是如何摆脱产业普遍存在的劣势，同时保有持续的竞争优势的，我们从许多方面来克服这个问题，首先让我们来看看国民保险的策略。

When we purchased the company-a specialist in commercial auto and general liability insurance — it did not appear to have any attributes that would overcome the industry’s chronic troubles. It was not well-known, had no informational advantage (the company has never had an actuary), was not a low-cost operator, and sold through general agents, a method many people thought outdated. Nevertheless, for almost all of the past 38 years, NICO has been a star performer. Indeed, had we not made this acquisition, Berkshire would be lucky to be worth half of what it is today.

当我们买下该公司时，这是一家专门从事商用车险及一般责任险的公司，当时它显然并未拥有得以克服同业沉疴的特点，它的名气不够响亮，也没有任何信息上的优势（当时公司甚至没有精算师），营运成本也不是最低的，保单通过一般的中介销售，这在当时被视为落伍的做法，尽管如此，在往后的 38 年内，国民保险的表现却极为优异，我们可以这样说，当时要是我们没没吃下这家公司，伯克希尔的价值可能不及现在的一半。

What we’ve had going for us is a managerial mindset that most insurers find impossible to replicate. Take a look at the facing page. Can you imagine any public company embracing a business model that would lead to the decline in revenue that we experienced from 1986 through 1999? That colossal slide, it should be emphasized, did not occur because business was unobtainable. Many billions of premium dollars were readily available to NICO had we only been willing to cut prices. But we instead consistently priced to make a profit, not to match our most optimistic competitor. We never left customers — but they left us.

我们所做的是一般保险业者绝对无法复制的一种管理思维，请大家看下表，大家肯定没有看过有公司可以忍受营收连续十多年（1986年-1999年）持续下滑的经营模式，我必须强调，那种大幅度下滑的原因并不是没有生意可做，事实上，只要我们愿意降点价格，马上就会有几十亿美元的保单上门，但国民保险宁可坚持有利润承保，也不愿为了营收与同业随波逐流，我们从来不弃客户于不顾，是客户主动离开我们。

Most American businesses harbor an “institutional imperative” that rejects extended decreases in volume. What CEO wants to report to his shareholders that not only did business contract last year but that it will continue to drop? In insurance, the urge to keep writing business is also intensified because the consequences of foolishly-priced policies may not become apparent for some time. If an insurer is optimistic in its reserving, reported earnings will be overstated, and years may pass before true loss costs are revealed (a form of self-deception that nearly destroyed GEICO in the early 1970s).

大部分的美国企业都怀有制度上的迫切需求——不愿看到营收大幅下滑，没有公司的 CEO 会愿意跟股东报告，去年不仅业务收缩，且将继续下滑。这在保险公司尤其明显，因为继续签发保单的愚昧的后果，可能要等上好长一段时间才会被发现，如果保险业者对于提列准备金过于乐观，那么帐面的收益便可能被夸大，而真正的损失可能要等好几个年头才会浮现（就是这种自欺欺人的技俩让 GEICO 在 1970 年代差点倒闭）。

Portrait of a Disciplined Underwriter

严谨的承保人肖像

National Indemnity Company

国民保险公司

Year 年份	Written Premium (In $ millions) 保费收入（百万美元）	No. of Employees at Year-End 年末雇员	Ratio of Operating Expenses to Written Premium 承保费用率	Underwriting Profit (Loss) as a Percentage of Premiums (Calculated as of year end 2004)* 承保利润率（截至2004年底）
1980	$ 79.6	372	32.3%	8.2%
1981	59.9	353	36.1%	(.8%)
1982	52.5	323	36.7%	(15.3%)
1983	58.2	308	35.6%	(18.7%)
1984	62.2	342	35.5%	(17.0%)
1985	160.7	380	28.0%	1.9%
1986	366.2	403	25.9%	30.7%
1987	232.3	368	29.5%	27.3%
1988	139.9	347	31.7%	24.8%
1989	98.4	320	35.9%	14.8%
1990	87.8	289	37.4%	7.0%
1991	88.3	284	35.7%	13.0%
1992	82.7	277	37.9%	5.2%
1993	86.8	279	36.1%	11.3%
1994	85.9	263	34.6%	4.6%
1995	78.0	258	36.6%	9.2%
1996	74.0	243	36.5%	6.8%
1997	65.3	240	40.4%	6.2%
1998	56.8	231	40.4%	9.4%
1999	54.5	222	41.2%	4.5%
2000	68.1	230	38.4%	2.9%
2001	161.3	254	28.8%	(11.6%)
2002	343.5	313	24.0%	16.8%
2003	594.5	337	22.2%	18.1%
2004	605.6	340	22.5%	5.1%

* It takes a long time to learn the true profitability of any given year. First, many claims are received after the end of the year, and we must estimate how many of these there will be and what they will cost. (In insurance jargon, these claims are termed IBNR-incurred but not reported.) Second, claims often take years, or even decades, to settle, which means there can be many surprises along the way.

* 特定年度的获利情况通常需要很长一段时间以后才能知晓，其原因在于，首先，许多理赔申请通常要到年底才会提出，所以我们必须事先预估可能的数字，套句保险业的术语，这些理赔申请简称为 IBNR——发生但尚未申诉的案件，其次，理赔申请可能要好几年，有时甚至要数十年才能和解，其间可能横生许多波折。

For these reasons, the results in this column simply represent our best estimate at the end of 2004 as to how we have done in prior years. Profit margins for the years through 1999 are probably close to correct because these years are “mature,” in the sense that they have few claims still outstanding. The more recent the year, the more guesswork is involved. In particular, the results shown for 2003 and 2004 are apt to change significantly.

基于以上几个原因，上表的这些数字，仅代表我们在 2004 年底所能估算的预估，如同以往年度一样，截至 1999 年的数字应该比较不会出错，因为那年以前的理赔申请案都已提出的差不多了，离现在越近的年度的数字，其估计的成份也就越大，尤其是最近两年，也就是 2003 年及 2004 年，日后大幅变化的可能性最大。

Finally, there is a fear factor at work, in that a shrinking business usually leads to layoffs. To avoid pink slips, employees will rationalize inadequate pricing, telling themselves that poorly-priced business must be tolerated in order to keep the organization intact and the distribution system happy. If this course isn’t followed, these employees will argue, the company will not participate in the recovery that they invariably feel is just around the corner.

最后，有一项恐惧因子在其间作祟——业务萎缩通常会导致裁员。为了避免被炒鱿鱼，员工通常将保费不当定价的原因合理化，告诉自己降价以保存组织完整是可以被忍受的，如此整个营销系统都将皆大欢喜，如果不这样做，员工们会声称，一旦景气回暖，公司将无法参与即将到来的复苏。

To combat employees’ natural tendency to save their own skins, we have always promised NICO’s workforce that no one will be fired because of declining volume, however severe the contraction. (This is not Donald Trump’s sort of place.) NICO is not labor-intensive, and, as the table suggests, can live with excess overhead. It can’t live, however, with underpriced business and the breakdown in underwriting discipline that accompanies it. An insurance organization that doesn’t care deeply about underwriting at a profit this year is unlikely to care next year either.

为了抵挡员工自保的天性，我们一再承诺，国民保险不会因为业务萎缩而裁员，这儿可跟唐纳德·特朗普那里不一样，国民保险不是劳力密集型公司，而正如上表所示，我们可以忍受额外的管理费用，但却绝不能忍受不当的定价，以及随之而来崩溃的核保纪律。因为现在不在乎核保利润的保险公司，以后也不可能会在乎。

Naturally, a business that follows a no-layoff policy must be especially careful to avoid overstaffing when times are good. Thirty years ago Tom Murphy, then CEO of Cap Cities, drove this point home to me with a hypothetical tale about an employee who asked his boss for permission to hire an assistant. The employee assumed that adding $20, 000 t o t h e ann u a lp a yro llw o u l d b e in co n se q u e n t ia l . B u t hi s b oss t o l d him t h e p ro p os a l s h o u l d b ee v a l u a t e d a s a$ 3 million decision, given that an additional person would probably cost at least that amount over his lifetime, factoring in raises, benefits and other expenses (more people, more toilet paper). And unless the company fell on very hard times, the employee added would be unlikely to be dismissed, however marginal his contribution to the business.

当然采取不裁员态度的企业，一定要避免在景气好时人员过剩，30 年前当时大都会 CEO 汤姆·墨菲用一个假想的小故事向我阐述了这一点，话说有位员工要求老板新增一个人力，这位员工认为公司一年增加 2 万美元的薪水开支没什么大不了，但他的老板却提醒他，考虑到加薪福利和其他费用（人越多用厕纸越多），因此要把它当做一个 300 万美元的提案一般慎重，因为除非公司真的快经营不下去了，否则这位员工将很难会被解雇，不管他对公司的贡献有多微薄。

It takes real fortitude — embedded deep within a company’s culture — to operate as NICO does. Anyone examining the table can scan the years from 1986 to 1999 quickly. But living day after day with dwindling volume-while competitors are boasting of growth and reaping Wall Street’s applause — is an experience few managers can tolerate. NICO, however, has had four CEOs since its formation in 1940 and none have bent. (It should be noted that only one of the four graduated from college. Our experience tells us that extraordinary business ability is largely innate.)

当然，要让像国民保险这样的文化，深植在公司的企业文化之中，必须要耗费相当大的功夫，看过这张表的人可以特别注意 1986 年到 1999 年的数字，很少有经理人可以默默忍受业务日渐下滑，特别是当其它竞争同业因为业绩大增而受到华尔街分析师的掌声之时，然而国民保险自 1940 年创立以来的四任总裁却没有一位屈服，特别要说明的是，这四位总裁只有一位拥有大学学历，经验告诉我们，非凡的商业能力大多是天生的。

The current managerial star — make that superstar — at NICO is Don Wurster (yes, he’s “the graduate”), who has been running things since 1989. His slugging percentage is right up there with Barry Bonds’ because, like Barry, Don will accept a walk rather than swing at a bad pitch. Don has now amassed $950 million of float at NICO that over time is almost certain to be proved the negative-cost kind. Because insurance prices are falling, Don’s volume will soon decline very significantly and, as it does, Charlie and I will applaud him ever more loudly.

现任国民保险的管理明星是 Don Wurster，姑且称他为超级巨星（没错，拥有大学文凭的就是他），自 1989 年起便接掌该公司，他的打击率可以媲美 Barry Bonds，因为跟 Bonds 一样，Don 宁愿选择保送，也不会对着坏球挥棒，总计到现在他已为我们累积了 9.5 亿美元的浮存金，而且几乎可以说是没有成本的，而由于目前的保费水准有下滑的趋势，所以国民保险的业务很可能会再度大幅下滑，关于这点，查理跟我百分之百支持他。

Another way to prosper in a commodity-type business is to be the low-cost operator. Among auto insurers operating on a broad scale, GEICO holds that cherished title. For NICO, as we have seen, an ebb-and-flow business model makes sense. But a company holding a low-cost advantage must pursue an unrelenting foot-to-the-floor strategy. And that’s just what we do at GEICO.

商品型的企业另一项生存之道就是，成为低成本经营者。在众多车险业者当中，GEICO 无疑荣获桂冠，至于周期起伏的国民保险，则是另外一种路遥知马力类型，但追求低成本的企业，必须努力不懈至始至终的维持成本优势，而 GEICO 正是如此。

A century ago, when autos first appeared, the property-casualty industry operated as a cartel. The major companies, most of which were based in the Northeast, established “bureau” rates and that was it. No one cut prices to attract business. Instead, insurers competed for strong, well-regarded agents, a focus that produced high commissions for agents and high prices for consumers.

一百年前，当汽车首次问世，财产意外险业是个垄断的行业，位于东北部的几家最主要的公司，订立了统一的费率，且完全不二价，没有人会杀价竞争，保险业者所竞逐的是实力强大备受好评的中介代理商，此举造成了代理商的高佣金，以及消费者的高费率。

In 1922, State Farm was formed by George Mecherle, a farmer from Merna, Illinois, who aimed to take advantage of the pricing umbrella maintained by the high-cost giants of the industry. State Farm employed a “captive” agency force, a system keeping its acquisition costs lower than those incurred by the bureau insurers (whose “independent” agents successfully played off one company against another). With its low-cost structure, State Farm eventually captured about 25% of the personal lines (auto and homeowners) business, far outdistancing its once-mighty competitors. Allstate, formed in 1931, put a similar distribution system into place and soon became the runner-up in personal lines to State Farm. Capitalism had worked its magic, and these low-cost operations looked unstoppable.

1922 年，伊利诺伊州 Merna 市的农场主 George Mecherle 创立了州立农业保险公司（State Farm），目标锁定在打破业界高成本巨头所建立的高价格同盟，州立农业保险雇用专属代理人团队，这一体系让他取得保单的成本远低于一般保险同业，其独立的代理商接二连三成功地干翻了其它业者，拜其低成本结构所赐，最终获取了 25% 的个人业务份额（含车险及住宅险在内），远远超越昔日强大的竞争对手，而创立于 1931 年的 Allstate 保险公司也仿效他们，设立类似的营销渠道，并一举跃居第二，仅次于州立农业保险公司，资本主义再度发挥神奇的效用，而这种低成本的营运确已势不可挡。

But a man named Leo Goodwin had an idea for an even more efficient auto insurer and, with a skimpy $200,000, started GEICO in 1936. Goodwin’s plan was to eliminate the agent entirely and to deal instead directly with the auto owner. Why, he asked himself, should there be any unnecessary and expensive links in the distribution mechanism when the product, auto insurance, was both mandatory and costly. Purchasers of business insurance, he reasoned, might well require professional advice, but most consumers knew what they needed in an auto policy. That was a powerful insight.

但此时有一个叫 Leo Goodwin 却有一个更有效率的想法，他在 1936 年以区区的 20 万美元创立 GEICO，Goodwin 计划完全淘汰代理商，而直接与车主接触（直销）。他认为汽车保险既是强制性的且又昂贵不堪时，中间为什么一定要有昂贵且不必要的代理销售机制。他认为商业保险的客户或许需要许多专业上的建议，但大多数的顾客都知道自己需要什么样的车险保单。这在当时真是真知灼见。

Originally, GEICO mailed its low-cost message to a limited audience of government employees. Later, it widened its horizons and shifted its marketing emphasis to the phone, working inquiries that came from broadcast and print advertising. And today the Internet is coming on strong.

一开始，GEICO 只是将其低价的讯息邮寄给少数的政府公务人员，之后又将范围扩大，并把销售重点摆在电话营销、广播及报章杂志渠道上，而时至今日，互联网渠道正在崛起。

Between 1936 and 1975, GEICO grew from a standing start to a 4% market share, becoming the country’s fourth largest auto insurer. During most of this period, the company was superbly managed, achieving both excellent volume gains and high profits. It looked unstoppable. But after my friend and hero Lorimer Davidson retired as CEO in 1970, his successors soon made a huge mistake by under-reserving for losses. This produced faulty cost information, which in turn produced inadequate pricing. By 1976, GEICO was on the brink of failure.

从 1936 到 1975 这 40 年间，GEICO 稳定起步并发展到 4% 的市场占有率，成为全美第四大的汽车保险公司。大部分的时候，公司管理出色，营收与获利同步成长，看起来势不可挡，但直到该公司 CEO，同时也是我的好朋友 Davidson 在 1970 年宣布退休，情势随即起了变化，他的继任者犯下损失准备金提列不足的大错，此举大大扭曲了成本结构，进而导致不当的定价，1976 年，GEICO 已濒临倒闭。

Jack Byrne then joined GEICO as CEO and, almost single-handedly, saved the company by heroic efforts that included major price increases. Though GEICO’s survival required these, policyholders fled the company, and by 1980 its market share had fallen to 1.8%. Subsequently, the company embarked on some unwise diversification moves. This shift of emphasis away from its extraordinary core business stunted GEICO’s growth, and by 1993 its market share had grown only fractionally, to 1.9%. Then Tony Nicely took charge.

就在此时，Jack Byrne 加入 GEICO 担任 CEO，几乎是靠着一己之力，通过包含大幅调涨保费在内的努力拯救了公司，虽然这绝对是 GEICO 继续存活下去的必要之举，但客户却纷纷离去。到了 1980 年，市场占有率剧降至 1.8%，此时 GEICO 却又做出多元化的不智之举，这使得过去赖以成长的核心业务顿时失去了重心，1993 年该公司的市占率仅微微增加到 1.9%。一直到托尼·莱斯利（Tony Nicely）接手后，事情才有了改观。

And what a difference that’s made: In 2005 GEICO will probably secure a 6% market share. Better yet, Tony has matched growth with profitability. Indeed, GEICO delivers all of its constituents major benefits: In 2004 its customers saved $1 bi ll i o n orsoco m p a re d t o w ha tt h ey w o u l d o t h er w i se ha v e p ai df orco v er a g e, i t s a ssoc ia t ese a r n e d a$ 191 million profit-sharing bonus that averaged 24.3% of salary, and its owner-that’s us -enjoyed excellent financial returns.

这有什么不一样：2005 年 GEICO 将获得 6% 的市场份额。更妙的是，托尼的增长和获利相匹配。事实上 GEICO 所有参与的成员皆同步受益：2004 年 GEICO 总计为保户节省了 10 亿美元的保费，员工领取了 1.91 亿美元的利润分享奖金，约占工资的 24.3%，至于股东们更获得了可观的投资回报。

There’s more good news. When Jack Byrne was rescuing the company in 1976, New Jersey refused to grant him the rates he needed to operate profitably. He therefore promptly-and properly — withdrew from the state. Subsequently, GEICO avoided both New Jersey and Massachusetts, recognizing them as two jurisdictions in which insurers were destined to struggle.

不仅如此，当 Jack 在 1976 年力图挽救 GEICO 之际，新泽西州拒绝其提高保险费率的提议，Jack 二话不说立刻退出该州的营运，之后 GEICO 又退出了马萨诸塞州，认定这两州监管机关的态度不利于保险业者的经营。

In 2003, however, New Jersey took a new look at its chronic auto — insurance problems and enacted legislation that would curb fraud and allow insurers a fair playing field. Even so, one might have expected the state’s bureaucracy to make change slow and difficult.

一直到 2003 年新泽西州终于开始正视其沉苛已久的车险市场，立法遏止保户骗保的行为，还给业者一个公平合理的经营环境。即便如此，人们还是预期该州的官僚主义作风会使得改革缓慢而困难重重。

But just the opposite occurred. Holly Bakke, the New Jersey insurance commissioner, who would be a success in any line of work, was determined to turn the law’s intent into reality. With her staff s cooperation, GEICO ironed out the details for re-entering the state and was licensed last August. Since then, we’ve received a response from New Jersey drivers that is multiples of my expectations.

但恰恰相反，此时新泽西州优秀的保险官员 Holly Bakke 在任何行业都会成功，他毅然决定将法律意图变为现实。在他们工作人员的配合下，GEICO 敲定了重返新泽西市场的细节计划，并于去年八月顺利取得营运执照，之后所获得的保单数量远远超过我的预期。

We are now serving 140,000 policyholders — about 4% of the New Jersey market — and saving them substantial sums (as we do drivers everywhere). Word-of-mouth recommendations within the state are causing inquiries to pour in. And once we hear from a New Jersey prospect, our closure rate — the percentage of policies issued to inquiries received — is far higher in the state than it is nationally.

目前我们拥有 14 万的保户，约占该州市场 4%，且一如其它州一样，GEICO 为他们节省了可观的保费，口耳相传的引荐使得询问电话蜂拥而至，而且据报该州的保单通过率(承保数量/询问数量)远远高于全美平均的水平。

We make no claim, of course, that we can save everyone money. Some companies, using rating systems that are different from ours, will offer certain classes of drivers a lower rate than we do. But we believe GEICO offers the lowest price more often than any other national company that serves all segments of the public. In addition, in most states, including New Jersey, Berkshire shareholders receive an 8% discount. So gamble fifteen minutes of your time and go to GEICO.com — or call 800-847-7536 — to see whether you can save big money (which you might want to use, of course, to buy other Berkshire products).

当然我们无法保证所有人都可以在我们这里拿到最低的保费，因为各家保险公司的计费标准不尽相同，但我敢保证在所有大型的保险公司当中，GEICO 可以提供多数人最低廉的保费，此外，只要是伯克希尔的股东，包含新泽西在内，都可以享受 8% 的折扣，大家不妨花几分钟，去 GEICO 的公司网站，或打电话到 800-847-7536，问看看能不能省下一笔钱，（当然只要你喜欢，伯克希尔还有许多商品，任君选择）。

Reinsurance — insurance sold to other insurers who wish to lay off part of the risks they have assumed — should not be a commodity product. At bottom, any insurance policy is simply a promise, and as everyone knows, promises vary enormously in their quality.

再保险是保险业者为分散自身承担风险，将业务出售给同业的一项机制，不应该是一种商品型产品。说到底，保单只不过是一纸承诺，关键在于是谁所发出，所以，承诺的质量千差万别。

At the primary insurance level, nevertheless, just who makes the promise is often of minor importance. In personal-lines insurance, for example, states levy assessments on solvent companies to pay the policyholders of companies that go broke. In the business-insurance field, the same arrangement applies to workers’ compensation policies. “Protected” policies of these types account for about 60% of the property-casualty industry’s volume. Prudently-run insurers are irritated by the need to subsidize poor or reckless management elsewhere, but that’s the way it is.

至于对传统直接保险市场来说，谁做承诺就没有那么紧要，以个人险种来说，政府通常会向业者征收规费，用来支应倒闭业者付不出来的理赔金，至于商业险方面，工人赔偿保险也有类似的机制，这类具有防护机制的保险约占所有产险保单的 60%，虽然经营稳健的业者对于要被迫补贴经营不善的业者非常反感，但这行的游戏规则就是如此。

Other forms of business insurance at the primary level involve promises that carry greater risks for the insured. When Reliance Insurance and Home Insurance were run into the ground, for example, their promises proved to be worthless. Consequently, many holders of their business policies (other than those covering workers’ compensation) suffered painful losses.

其它商业保险的形式包括承诺保险，对保户来说具有更高的风险，当信实保险（Reliance Insurance Co.成立于 1817 年，于 2001 年破产）与家庭保险公司（The Home Insurance Co.1991 年被 TVH 收购）破产时，他们的承诺最后被证实是空话，这使得许多保单持有者（不包括工伤赔偿险）蒙受痛苦的损失。

The solvency risk in primary policies, however, pales in comparison to that lurking in reinsurance policies. When a reinsurer goes broke, staggering losses almost always strike the primary companies it has dealt with. This risk is far from minor: GEICO has suffered tens of millions in losses from its careless selection of reinsurers in the early 1980s.

但这些履约风险跟再保险保单比起来根本就算不了什么，当再保险公司倒闭时，与其往来的保险公司将无一幸免遭受波及，这类的风险绝对不可等闲视之，GEICO 在 1980 年代便曾因为选择再保公司不慎而蒙受好几千万美元的损失。

Were a true mega-catastrophe to occur in the next decade or two — and that’s a real possibility — some reinsurers would not survive. The largest insured loss to date is the World Trade Center disaster, which cost the insurance industry an estimated $35 bi ll i o n . H u rr i c an e A n d re w cos t in s u rers ab o u t$ 15.5 billion in 1992 (though that loss would be far higher in today’s dollars). Both events rocked the insurance and reinsurance world. But a $100 bi ll i o n e v e n t, ore v e na l a r g erc a t a s t ro p h e, re main s a p oss ibi l i t y i f e i t h er a p a r t i c u l a r l yse v eree a r t h q u ak eor h u rr i c an e hi t s j u s tt h e w ro n g pl a ce . F o u rs i g ni f i c an t h u rr i c an ess t r u c k Fl or i d a d u r in g 2004, c a u s in g ana gg re g a t eo f$ 25 billion or so in insured losses. Two of these — Charley and Ivan — could have done at least three times the damage they did had they entered the U.S. not far from their actual landing points.

若是往后十年二十年内发生天大的灾难，这不是没有可能，可能会有一些再保险公司不支倒地，目前有史以来最大的损害当属 911 纽约世贸中心灾难，这场灾难给保险业带来了 350 亿美元损失。1992年的安德鲁飓风给保险业带来 155 亿美元损失居次，（虽然以今日的币值应不只此数），这两起灾害都曾震惊整个保险业和再保险业界。但若一场特别强烈的超级大地震或是大飓风袭击了错误的地方，1000 亿美元以上的灾害损失也不是没有可能，2004 年在佛罗里达发生的四起飓风，合计造成 250 亿美元的经济损失，其中两起飓风（Charley 和 Ivan）差一点就登陆进入美国境内造成三倍以上的损失。

Many insurers regard a $100 billion industry loss as “unthinkable” and won’t even plan for it. But at Berkshire, we are fully prepared. Our share of the loss would probably be 3% to 5%, and earnings from our investments and other businesses would comfortably exceed that cost. When “the day after” arrives, Berkshire’s checks will clear.

许多保险业者认为 1000 亿美元以上的理赔损失根本就不可能发生，但在伯克希尔，我们却未雨绸缪，我们承担的损失比例可能在 3-5%，我们每年从投资及其它业务所赚取的收益轻松覆盖这些损失，即便是当电影《浩劫之后》（The day after）的核爆事件真的发生，伯克希尔所开出的支票依旧能兑现。

Though the hurricanes hit us with a $1.25 billion loss, our reinsurance operations did well last year. At General Re, Joe Brandon has restored a long-admired culture of underwriting discipline that, for a time, had lost its way. The excellent results he realized in 2004 on current business, however, were offset by adverse developments from the years before he took the helm. At NICO’s reinsurance operation, Ajit Jain continues to successfully underwrite huge risks that no other reinsurer is willing or able to accept. Ajit’s value to Berkshire is enormous.

虽然我们为飓风损失了 12.5 亿美元，但总的来说，去年的再保业务表现甚佳，通用再保险 Joe Brandon 也恢复往日的承保纪律，然而他在 2004 年缴出的成绩，却被他接手之前所埋下的恶果所抵销，至于国民保险公司的再保险业务，阿吉特·贾恩持续成功地接下别人不敢接的超大风险保单，阿吉特可说是伯克希尔的无价之宝。

Our insurance managers, maximizing the competitive strengths I’ve mentioned in this section, again delivered first-class underwriting results last year. As a consequence, our float was better than costless. Here’s the scorecard:

我们的再保险经理人使得我们的竞争优势极大化，再度在去年缴出漂亮的成绩单，我们的浮存金成本甚至低于零，以下是他们的成绩单。

Insurance Operations
保险业务|Underwriting Profit 2004 (in $mi ll i o n s) < / b r > 2004 年承保收益 ∣ Y e a re n d Fl o a t 2004 (in$ millions)
2004年末浮存金|Yearend Float 2003 (in $mi ll i o n s) < / b r > 2003 年末浮存金 - - - ∣ - - - : ∣ - - - : ∣ - - - : G e n er a lR e < / b r > [[G e n er a l_{R} e ∣ 通用再保险]] ∣$ 3| $23, 120∣$ 23,654 B-H Reinsurance
伯克希尔再保险|417|15,278|13,948 GEICO
盖可保险|970|5,960|5,287 Other Primary*
其他直保*|161|1,736|1,331 Total
合计| $1, 551∣$ 46,094|$ 44,220

* Includes, in addition to National Indemnity, a variety of other exceptional insurance businesses, run by Rod Eldred, John Kizer, Tom Nerney and Don Towle.²

除国家赔偿公司外，还包括罗德·埃尔德里德（Rod Eldred）、约翰·基泽尔（John Kizer）、汤姆·纳尼（Tom Nerney）和唐·托尔（Don Towle）经营的其他各种出色的保险业务。²

Berkshire’s float increased $1.9 billion in 2004, even though a few insureds opted to commute (that is, unwind) certain reinsurance contracts. We agree to such commutations only when we believe the economics are favorable to us (after giving due weight to what we might earn in the future on the money we are returning).

2004 年伯克希尔的浮存金又增加了 19 亿美元，虽然也有少数几位客户在到期后倾向解约，但只有在对我们有利的情况之下，我们才接受解约，也就是必须先衡量我们将钱退回给客户后，未来将因此少赚的回报。

To summarize, last year we were paid more than $1.5 bi ll i o n t o h o l d ana v er a g eo f ab o u t$ 45.2 billion. In 2005 pricing will be less attractive than it has been. Nevertheless, absent a mega-catastrophe, we have a decent chance of achieving no-cost float again this year.

总言之，去年为了保管这 452 亿美元，我们额外获得了 15 亿美元的回报，展望 2005 年市场定价较不吸引人，尽管如此，只要不发生什么重大的天灾地变，我们预计可以再次实现无成本的浮存金。

Finance and Finance Products 金融和金融产品

Last year in this section we discussed a potpourri of activities. In this report, we’ll skip over several that are now of lesser importance: Berkadia is down to tag ends; Value Capital has added other investors, negating our expectation that we would need to consolidate its financials into ours; and the trading operation that I run continues to shrink.

去年在这一部分，我们讨论了一系列业务，今年我们将一些比较不重要的省略掉，Berkadia 已接进尾声，Value Capital 也有新的投资者加入，降低其并入伯克希尔报表的必要性，至于我个人负责操刀的交易业务也持续萎缩。

Both of Berkshire’s leasing operations rebounded last year. At CORT (office furniture), earnings remain in adequate, but are trending upward. XTRA disposed of its container and intermodal businesses in order to concentrate on trailer leasing, long its strong suit. Overhead has been reduced, asset utilization is up and decent profits are now being achieved under Bill Franz, the company’s new CEO.

伯克希尔旗下两项租赁业务去年有所起色，办公家具租赁 CORT 的收益虽依旧不佳，但已有好转，XTRA 出售了集装箱及联运业务，以专注于货柜拖车租赁的强项业务，在现任总裁 Bill Franz 的领导下，费用开支大幅减少，资产运用效率提高，获得了不错的利润。

The wind-down of Gen Re Securities continues. We decided to exit this derivative operation three years ago, but getting out is easier said than done. Though derivative instruments are purported to be highly liquid — and though we have had the benefit of a benign market while liquidating ours — we still had 2,890 contracts outstanding at yearend, down from 23,218 at the peak. Like Hell, derivative trading is easy to enter but difficult to leave. (Other similarities come to mind as well.)

通用再保险证券业务的清盘动作仍在持续当中，我们在三年前决定退出这个市场，但要退出谈何容易。虽然衍生品理论上流动性颇高，且以目前温和的市场环境也有利于我们的退出，但截至年底，我们依然有 2,890 份合约缠身（高峰时有 23,218 份合约）。就像是地狱一样，衍生品市场易进难出，当然其它还有很多相似的地方。

Gen Re’s derivative contracts have always been required to be marked to market, and I believe the company’s management conscientiously tried to make realistic “marks.”” The market prices of derivatives, however, can be very fuzzy in a world in which settlement of a transaction is sometimes decades away and often involves multiple variables as well. In the interim the marks influence the managerial and trading bonuses that are paid annually. It’s small wonder that phantom profits are often recorded.

通用再保险证券的衍生性金融合约要求随时以市价反应，而我也确信该公司的管理层已尽力做出反应现实的计价，但衍生品的市价却由于真正结算的时点可能要在几十年以后，而使得市价很难估算，同时还须仰赖非常多个变量，但以此为基础来计算的奖金却是每年发放，这也难怪虚幻的获利数字满天乱飞。

Investors should understand that in all types of financial institutions, rapid growth sometimes masks major underlying problems (and occasionally fraud). The real test of the earning power of a derivatives operation is what it achieves after operating for an extended period in a no-growth mode. You only learn who has been swimming naked when the tide goes out.

投资人必须了解在各种金融机构当中，快速成长通常蕴藏天大的问题，有时甚至是重大舞弊，要真正测试衍生品业务的获利能力，必须是在无成长的状态下运营一段时间看看结果。你只有在等潮退了才知道是谁在裸泳。

After 40 years, we’ve finally generated a little synergy at Berkshire: Clayton Homes is doing well and that’s in part due to its association with Berkshire. The manufactured home industry continues to reside in the intensive care unit of Corporate America, having sold less than 135,000 new homes last year, about the same as in 2003. Volume in these years was the lowest since 1962, and it was also only about 40% of annual sales during the years 1995-99. That era. characterized by irresponsible financing and naive funders, was a fool’s paradise for the industry.

历经 40 年，伯克希尔终于展现出一点协同效应，Clayton 表现的相当不错，部分原因当然要归功于伯克希尔的加持，预制房屋行业目前仍处于 ICU 阶段，去年售出的新屋不超过 13.5 万套，与上一年大致持平，创 1962 年以来新低，约 90 年代高峰时的 40%，当时在不负责任业者的推波助澜下，达到前所未有的疯狂地步。

Because one major lender after another has fled the field, financing continues to bedevil manufacturers, retailers and purchasers of manufactured homes. Here Berkshire’s support has proven valuable to Clayton. We stand ready to fund whatever makes sense, and last year Clayton’s management found much that qualified.

由于主要的贷款人纷纷撤离这个市场，使得财务问题一直困扰着预制房屋厂商、零售商和消费者，此时伯克希尔的支持对 Clayton 来说，可谓久旱逢甘霖，只要合理，我们愿意随时提供资金，而一年下来，Clayton 也不负我们所望。

As we explained in our 2003 report, we believe in using borrowed money to support profitable, interest-bearing receivables. At the beginning of last year, we had borrowed $2 bi ll i o n t ore l e n d t o Cl a y t o n (a t a o n e p erce n t a g e - p o in t ma r k u p) an d b y J an u a ry 2005 t h e t o t a lw a s$ 7.35 billion. Most of the dollars added were borrowed by us on January 4, 2005, to finance a seasoned portfolio that Clayton purchased on December 30, 2004 from a bank exiting the business.

在 2003 年的年报中我就曾解释过，我们认为融资借钱来支应可收取利息的应收款项将有利可图，去年初我们转借 20 亿美元给 Clayton，并收取 1% 的利差，到 2005 年 1 月 4 日，这笔借款增加为 73.5 亿美元，主要是用于 Clayton 从一家 2004 年 12 月 30 日退出该业务的银行手中买下的应收款组合。

We now have two additional portfolio purchases in the works, totaling about $1.6 bi ll i o n, b u t i t^{'} s q u i t e u n l ik e l y t ha tw e w i ll sec u reo t h erso f an ys i g ni f i c an ce . T h ere f ore, Cl a y t o n^{'} srece i v ab l es (in w hi c h or i g ina t i o n s w i ll ro ug h l yo ff se tp a yo ff s) w i llp ro bab l y h o v er a ro u n d$ 9 billion for some time and should deliver steady earnings. This pattern will be far different from that of the past, in which Clayton, like all major players in its industry, “securitized” its receivables, causing earnings to be front-ended. In the last two years, the securitization market has dried up. The limited funds available today come only at higher cost and with harsh terms. Had Clayton remained independent in this period, it would have had mediocre earnings as it struggled with financing.

目前还有另外两笔应收款组合洽谈中，金额合计 16 亿美元，不过这大概是最后一笔大额的交易，所以 Clayton 帐上的应收款组合将会一直停留在 90 亿美元左右的水准，（新增的金额大约会被偿还的帐款所抵消），并持续贡献稳定的收益，这景况与业者过去习惯将应收帐款证券化刻意让收益提早实现的做法截然不同，过去两年，应收帐款证券化的市场几乎停摆，就算能取得资金，其利率与条件都相当严酷，如果 Clayton 依旧单打独斗，将只能维持惨淡的经营局面。

In April, Clayton completed the acquisition of Oakwood Homes and is now the industry’s largest producer and retailer of manufactured homes. We love putting more assets in the hands of Kevin Clayton, the company’s CEO. He is a prototype Berkshire manager. Today, Clayton has 11,837 employees, up from 7,136 when we purchased it, and Charlie and I are pleased that Berkshire has been useful in facilitating this growth.

去年 4 月份，Clayton 顺利买下 Oakwood，一举成为预制房屋业界最大的制造与销售商，我们乐意将更多的资源交予该公司总裁 Kevin，他是典型的伯克希尔经理人，当初我们买下 Clayton 时，该公司员工有 7 千多人，目前已增加到 1.1 万人，查理跟我很高兴能与他们共同参与成长的过程。

For simplicity’s sake, we include all of Clayton’s earnings in this sector, though a sizable portion of these are derived from areas other than consumer finance.

为了简化起见，我们将 Clayton 所有的收益归类到消费金融项下，虽然它还有一大部分的收益不属于此项。

(in $ millions) 百万美元	Pre-Tax Earnings 2004 税前收益2004年	Pre-Tax Earnings 2003 税前收益2003年	Interest-bearing Liabilities 2004 有息负债2004年	Interest-bearing Liabilities 2003 有息负债2003年
Trading - Ordinary Income 交易-经常性收入	$ 264	$ 355	$ 5,751	$ 7,826
Gen Re Securities [[General_Re	通用再保险]]证券	(44)	(99)	5,437*
Life and annuity operation 人寿年金业务	(57)	85	2,467	2,331
Value Capital 价值资本	30	31	N/A	N/A
Berkadia Berkadia	1	101	—	525
Leasing operations 租赁业务	92	34	391	482
Manufactured housing finance (Clayton)	220	37 克莱顿金融	3,636	2,032
Other 其他	78	75	N/A	N/A
Income before capital gains 收益合计	584	619
Trading - Capital Gains 交易-资本性收益	1,750	1,215
Total 合计	$ 2,334	$ 1,834

* Includes all liabilities

* 包括所有负债

** From date of acquisition, August 7, 2003

** 从收购日 2003 年 8 月 7 日算起

Manufacturing, Service and Retailing Operations 制造业、服务业与零售业的运营

Our activities in this category cover the waterfront. But let’s look at a summary balance sheet and earnings statement consolidating the entire group.

以下所代表的营业项目可说是海纳一切，让我们直接来看所有的资产负债表与利润表的合并数字。

Balance Sheet 12/31/04 (in $ millions)

资产负债表(2003年12月31日）单位：百万美元

Assets 资产	Amt. 金额	Liabilities and Equity 负债和权益	Amt. 金额
Cash and equivalents 现金及其等价物	$ 899	Notes payable 应付票据	$ 1,143
Accounts and notes receivable 应收账款和应收票据	3,074
Inventory 存货	3,842
Other current assets 其他流动资产	254	Other current liabilities 其他流动负债	4,685
Total current assets 流动资产合计	8,069	Total current liabilities 流动负债合计	5,828
Goodwill and other intangibles [[Goodwill	商誉]]及无形资产	8,362	Deferred taxes 递延所得税
Fixed assets 固定资产	6,161	Term debt and other liabilities 长期负债及其他负债	1,965
Other assets 其他非流动资产	1,044	Equity 所有者权益	15,595
	$ 23,636		$ 23,636

Earnings Statement (in $ millions)

利润表单位：百万美元

Item 科目	2004	2003
Revenues 收入	$ 44,142	$ 32,106
Operating expenses (including depreciation of $676 in 2004 an d$ 605 in 2003) 营业费用（其中折旧费用：2004年6.76亿美元，2003年6.05亿美元）	41,604	29,885
Interest expense (net) 净利息费用	57	64
Pre-tax income 税前利润	2,481	2,157
Income taxes 所得税	941	813
Net income 净利润	$ 1,540	$ 1,344

This eclectic group, which sells products ranging from Dilly Bars to fractional interests in Boeing 737s, earned a very respectable 21.7% on average tangible net worth last year, compared to 20.7% in 2003. It’s noteworthy that these operations used only minor financial leverage in achieving these returns. Clearly, we own some very good businesses. We purchased many of them, however, at substantial premiums to net worth — a matter that is reflected in the goodwill item shown on the balance sheet — and that fact reduces the earnings on our average carrying value to 9.9%.

这些精挑细选的组合，所销售的产品从冰激凌到波音 737 客机，应有尽有，去年平均净有形资产回报率高达 21.7 %，比起前一年的 20.7% 还要高，特别值得说明的是他们极少运用财务杠杆，他们无疑是最优秀的企业，当然由于我们大多以高于账面价值相当大的幅度买下，因此资产负债表上有大量的未摊销商誉，这使得我们平均账面价值回报率降为 9.9%。

Here are the pre-tax earnings for the larger categories or units.

以下是主要经营业务的税前收益明细：

(in $ millions) （百万美元）	Pre-Tax Earnings 2004 税前收益2004年	Pre-Tax Earnings 2003 税前收益2003年
Building Products 建筑产品	$ 643	$ 559
Shaw Industries Shaw 工业	466	436
Apparel & Footwear 服装鞋类	325	289
Retailing of Jewelry, Home Furnishings and Candy 零售业务	215	224
Flight Services 航空服务	191	72
McLane [[McLane_Company	麦克莱恩]]	228
Other businesses 其他	413	427
	$ 2,481	$ 2,157

* From date of acquisition, May 23, 2003.

* 麦克莱恩自收购之日 2003 年 5 月 23 日起

In the building-products sector and at Shaw, we’ve experienced staggering cost increases for both raw-materials and energy. By December, for example, steel costs at MiTek (whose primary business is connectors for roof trusses) were running 100% over a year earlier. And MiTek uses 665 million pounds of steel every year. Nevertheless, the company continues to be an outstanding performer. Since we purchased MiTek in 2001, Gene Toombs, its CEO, has made some brilliant “bolt-on” acquisitions and is on his way to creating a mini-Berkshire.

在建材与地毯业务方面，面临了原料成本与能源价格持续上涨的困境，比如至去年 12 月，MiTek 钢材的采购成本就比去年整整高出一倍，（其主要的产品是屋梁衍架连接件），该公司每年需耗用 6.65 亿磅的钢材，不过即便如此，该公司表现依然出色。自 2001 年我们买下 MiTek 后，该公司总裁 Gene Toombs 就进行了好几件补强式的并购，逐渐打造出属于自己的小型伯克希尔。

Shaw fielded a barrage of price increases in its main fiber materials during the year, a hit that added more than $300 million to its costs. (When you walk on carpet you are, in effect, stepping on processed oil.) Though we followed these hikes in costs with price increases of our own, there was an inevitable lag. Therefore, margins narrowed as the year progressed and remain under pressure today. Despite these roadblocks, Shaw, led by Bob Shaw and Julian Saul, earned an outstanding 25.6% on tangible equity in 2004. The company is a powerhouse and has a bright future.

这一年 Shaw 地毯经历了一系列纤维原材料成本的大幅上涨，这个重大的打击使得其成本剧增 3 亿美元，当你在地毯上行走，其实所踩的是经过处理的石油化学产品，虽然我们以调涨售价作为回应，但时间上还是有些落差，这使得毛利空间持续受到压缩，但即便如此，在 Bob 与 Julian 的领导下，去年还是为我们赚取了 25.6% 的股东权益回报，这家公司充满动力，且深具潜力。

In apparel, Fruit of the Loom increased unit sales by 10 million dozen, or 14%, with shipments of intimate apparel for women and girls growing by 31%. Charlie, who is far more knowledgeable than I am on this subject, assures me that women are not wearing more underwear. With this expert input, I can only conclude that our market share in the women’s category must be growing rapidly. Thanks to John Holland, Fruit is on the move.

在服装业方面，鲜果布衣的内衣销售增加了 1千万打（1dozen=12，英制为12进制），增幅为 14%，其中女用内衣与少女内衣更成长了 31%，这方面查理比我还懂得多，他跟我保证女性朋友目前穿得内衣还不够多，这更让我确信，我们在这方面的市场占有率正急速增加中，多亏 John Holland，鲜果布衣又重新振作起来。

A smaller operation, Garan, also had an excellent year. Led by Seymour Lichtenstein and Jerry Kamiel, this company manufactures the popular Garanimals line for children. Next time you are in a Wal-Mart, check out this imaginative product.

另外一家公司 Garan 童装，去年的表现也相当不错，在 Seymour 及 Lichtenstein 的带领之下，这家公司专门制造知名童装品牌 Garanimals，下次你去沃尔玛逛时，记得顺道去看看他们饶富创意的产品。

Among our retailers, Ben Bridge(jewelry) and R. C. Willey (home furnishings) were particular standouts last year.

在其它零售业者当中，BenBridge 珠宝及R.C.Willey家具，去年的表现也相当不错。

At Ben Bridge same-store sales grew 11.4%, the best gain among the publicly-held jewelers whose reports I have seen. Additionally, the company’s profit margin widened. Last year was not a fluke: During the past decade, the same-store sales gains of the company have averaged 8.8%.

在 BenBridge 单店营业额成长了 11.4%，毛利也同步增长，这是所有上市珠宝商中表现最好的，去年的成绩绝非侥幸，该公司过去十年平均成长率达到 8.8%。

Ed and Jon Bridge are fourth-generation managers and run the business exactly as if it were their own — which it is in every respect except for Berkshire’s name on the stock certificates. The Bridges have expanded successfully by securing the right locations and, more importantly, by staffing these stores with enthusiastic and knowledgeable associates. We will move into Minneapolis-St. Paul this year.

Ed 跟 Jon 是 Bridge 家族第四代的成员，并把公司当做是自家般在经营，除了股票上登记的名字改成伯克希尔外，其它一切不变，靠着选址正确，Bridge 成功地扩张据点，此外更重要的，每个据点的员工都充满了热情与专业知识，今年我们将进军明尼苏达州的双子城（Minneapolis-St.Paul）。

At Utah-based R.C. Willey, the gains from expansion have been even more dramatic, with 41.9% of 2004 sales coming from out-of-state stores that didn’t exist before 1999. The company also improved its profit margin in 2004, propelled by its two new stores in Las Vegas.

至于犹他州的R.C.Willey，其成长的态势更加惊人，拜外地新店所赐，公司营业额成长了 41.9%，毛利也有所改善，其中包含内华达州拉斯维加斯的两家新店。

I would like to tell you that these stores were my idea. In truth, I thought they were mistakes. I knew. of course, how brilliantly Bill Child had run the R. C. Willey operation in Utah, where its market share had long been huge. But I felt our closed-on-Sunday policy would prove disastrous away from home. Even our first out-of-state store in Boise, which was highly successful, left me unconvinced. I kept asking whether Las Vegas residents, conditioned to seven-day-a-week retailers, would adjust to us. Our first Las Vegas store, opened in 2001, answered this question in a resounding manner, immediately becoming our number one unit.

我要跟大家说，这些店事实上是我的主意，只是我本来以为它们做不起来，虽然我明明知道 Bill Child 跟R.C.Willey在犹他州的辉煌战果，他们在当地耕耘已久，但我就是觉得这种周日不开张的做法在外地肯定行不通，但结果证明我们在爱达荷州 Boise 的第一家店就一炮而红，但我还是不相信，不断质疑已经习惯没有周休的拉斯维加斯居民是否也吃这一套，这种怀疑在我们当地的第一家店于 2001 年开张，彻底被粉碎，单店营业额居所有分店首位。

Bill and Scott Hymas, his successor as CEO, then proposed a second Las Vegas store, only about 20 minutes away. I felt this expansion would cannibalize the first unit, adding significant costs but only modest sales. The result? Each store is now doing about 26% more volume than any other store in the chain and is consistently showing large year-over-year gains.

Bill 跟他的继任 CEO：Scott Hymas 趁胜追击，在 20 分钟车程远的地方开设第二家分店，当时我认为此举将拖垮第一家店的营运，成本大增而销售一般，结果呢？两家店的营业额比起其它分店都高出 26%，且营业额年年成长。

R.C. Willey will soon open in Reno. Before making this commitment, Bill and Scott again asked I for my advice. Initially, I was pretty puffed up about the fact that they were consulting me. But then it dawned on me that the opinion of someone who is always wrong has its own special utility to decision-makers.

R.C.Willy 很快就要在内华达州 Reno 市开店，但在正式投入之前，Bill 跟 Scott礼貌性地征询我的意见，一开始，我对于他们向我请教感到颇为自豪，但最后证明，他们只是把我的看法，当做反向参考意见。

Earnings improved in flight services. At FlightSafety, the world’s leader in pilot training, profits rose as corporate aviation rebounded and our business with regional airlines increased. We now operate 283 simulators with an original cost of $1.2 bi ll i o n . P i l o t s a re t r ain e d o n e a t a t im eo n t hi se x p e n s i v ee q u i p m e n t . T hi s m e an s t ha t a s m u c ha s$ 3.50 of capital investment is required to produce $1 of annual revenue. With this level of capital intensity, FlightSafety requires very high operating margins in order to obtain reasonable returns on capital, which means that utilization rates are all-important. Last year, FlightSafety’s return on tangible equity improved to 15.1% from 8.4% in 2003.

航空服务的获利也有所改善，飞安公司是全世界最大的飞行员训练公司，拜企业航空业务反弹及与区域性航空公司合作所赐，获利增加，目前我们拥有 283 座模拟器，帐面成本 12 亿美元，飞行员只能在这些昂贵的设备中一次一人接受训练，这意味着每 3.5 美元的资本设备投资只能创造出 1 美元的年营业收入，在如此资本密集的情况下，惟有高利润率才足以获得合理的投资回报，因此，设备利用率便显得相当重要，去年该公司的有形资产回报率由 8.4% 提升至 15.1%。

In another 2004 event, Al Ueltschi, who founded FlightSafety in 1951 with $10,000, turned over the CEO position to Bruce Whitman, a 43-year veteran at the company. (But Al’s not going anywhere; I won’t let him.) Bruce shares Al’s conviction that flying an aircraft is a privilege to be extended only to people who regularly receive the highest quality of training and are undeniably competent. A few years ago, Charlie was asked to intervene with Al on behalf of a tycoon friend whom FlightSafety had flunked. Al’s reply to Charlie: “Tell your pal he belongs in the back of the plane, not the cockpit.”

另外一件事是，于 1951 年以一万美元创立飞安公司的 Al Ueltschi 在去年退休，将 CEO 的位置交给公司 43 年的老臣 Bruce Whitman，但相信我，我绝不会让 Al 跑掉的。Bruce 跟 Al 拥有相同的理念，认为惟有经常接受高品质训练的人，才有资格驾御航空飞行器。几年前查理受一位在飞安公司训练不合格的企业朋友所托，向 Al 求情，结果 Al 冷酷地回答到，“告诉你的朋友，给我远离驾驶舱，乖乖地待在后舱。”

FlightSafety’s number one customer is NetJets, our aircraft fractional-ownership subsidiary. Its 2,100 pilots spend an average of 18 days a year in training. Additionally, these pilots fly only one aircraft type whereas many flight operations juggle pilots among several types. NetJets’high standards on both fronts are two of the reasons I signed up with the company years before Berkshire bought it.

飞安公司最大的客户就是 NetJets，我们飞机共享业务的子公司，旗下 2,100 位飞行员每年平均花 18 天进行飞行训练，此外不像别人常常在不同机种间跳来跳去，我们的飞行员只专心飞一种固定机型，NetJets 在这两方面高水平的要求，是为什么我早在买下该公司以前，就成为它们客户的主要原因。

Fully as important in my decisions to both use and buy NetJets, however, was the fact that the company was managed by Rich Santulli, the creator of the fractional-ownership industry and a fanatic about safety and service. I viewed the selection of a flight provider as akin to picking a brain surgeon: you simply want the best. (Let someone else experiment with the low bidder.)

另外我之所以会买下 NetJets 的原因还有，这家公司是由 Rich Santulli 所经营，他是飞机共享产业的创办人，对于安全与服务的要求几尽疯狂，我认为挑选飞行员跟选择脑部外科医生一样重要，要挑就要挑最好的，其它次等的人选就留给别人吧。

Last year NetJets again gained about 70% of the net new business (measured by dollar value) going to the four companies that dominate the industry. A portion of our growth came from the 25-hour card offered by Marquis Jet Partners. Marquis is not owned by NetJets, but is instead a customer that repackages the purchases it makes from us into smaller packages that it sells through its card. Marquis deals exclusively with NetJets, utilizing the power of our reputation in its marketing.

去年 NetJets 再次主导市场获得了该行业净新业务的 70%，这些业务为四家主要公司瓜分。其中一部分增长来自Marquis推出的 25 小时券，Marquis 并非 NetJets 的关联企业只是一个客户，不过它向 NetJets 批发时数后，再以更小的包装卖给终端消费者，Marquis 只专作 NetJets 的生意，并以 NetJets 的卓越名声做为营销的重点。

Our U.S. contracts, including Marquis customers, grew from 3,877 to 4,967 in 2004 (versus approximately 1,200 contracts when Berkshire bought NetJets in 1998). Some clients (including me) enter into multiple contracts because they wish to use more than one type of aircraft, selecting for any given trip whichever type best fits the mission at hand.

去年我们在美国的签约件数，从 3,877 成长到 4,967，（1999 年伯克希尔收购 NetJets 时，其客户数约为 1,200 个），有些客户（包括我在内）为了使用不同的机型，签好多项合约，以因应不同场合的需求。

NetJets earned a modest amount in the U.S. last year. But what we earned domestically was largely offset by losses in Europe. We are now, however, generating real momentum abroad. Contracts (including 25-hour cards that we ourselves market in Europe) increased from 364 to 693 during the year. We will again have a very significant European loss in 2005, but domestic earnings will likely put us in the black overall.

NetJets 去年在美国这边的获利还算不错，但大部分的获利却被欧洲的亏损所侵蚀，不过目前国外的业务确有起色，包含刚刚提到的 25 小时券在内，合约数已从 364 件增加到 693 件，虽然 2005 年预估还会继续发生庞大亏损，但美国本土的获利还是能够让我们的帐面免于出现赤字。

Europe has been expensive for NetJets — far more expensive than I anticipated — but it is essential to building a flight operation that will forever be in a class by itself. Our U.S. owners already want a quality service wherever they travel and their wish for flight hours abroad is certain to grow dramatically in the decades ahead. Last year, U.S. owners made 2,003 flights in Europe, up 22% from the previous year and 137% from2000. Just as important, our European owners made 1,067 flights in the U.S., up 65% from2003 and 239% from 2000.

欧洲实在是让我们付出重大的代价，且远远超过我当初的预期，但为了建立品质却是不得不走的路，我们许多美国的客户希望无论到世界上的那个地方，都能够享受相同品质的服务，而跨国旅行的需求在未来肯定会大幅成长，去年美国客户总计飞到欧洲 2,003 趟，成长了 22%，在此同时，欧洲的客户飞到美国，则有 1,067 趟，成长了 65%，相比 2000 年则增长了 239%。

Investments 投资组合

We show below our common stock investments. Those that had a market value of more than $600 million at the end of 2004 are itemized.

下表列示伯克希尔 2004 年市价超过 6 亿美元以上的股票投资。

12/31/04

2004年12月31日

Shares 股份数量	Company 公司名称	Percentage of Company Owned 股份占比	Cost* (in $ millions)	成本*（百万美元）Market (in $ millions) 市值（百万美元）
151,610,700	American Express Company [[American_Express	美国运通]]	12.1	$ 1,470
200,000,000	The Coca-Cola Company [[Coca_Cola	可口可乐]]	8.3	1,299
96,000,000	The Gillette Company [[Gillette	吉列]]公司	9.7	600
14,350,600	H&R Block, Inc. H&R Block税务服务商	8.7	223	703
6,708,760	M&T Bank Corporation M&T银行	5.8	103	723
24,000,000	Moody’s Corporation [[Moodys	穆迪]]公司	16.2	499
2,338,961,000	PetroChina “H” shares (or equivalents) [[PetroChina	中国石油]]H股	1.3	488
1,727,765	The Washington Post Company [[Washington_Post	华盛顿邮报]]	18.1	11
56,448,380	Wells Fargo & Company [[Wells_Fargo	富国银行]]	3.3	463
1,724,200	White Mountains Insurance 白山保险	16.0	369	1,114
	Others 其他		3,531	5,465
	Total Common Stocks 普通股投资合计		$ 9,056	$ 37,717

* This is our actual purchase price and also our tax basis; GAAP “cost” differs in a few cases because of write-ups or write-downs that have been required.

* 注：成本为我们实际取得的成本，也是按税务基础，至于依会计原则的成本则由于摊销或调升而有所不同。

Some people may look at this table and view it as a list of stocks to be bought and sold based upon chart patterns, brokers’ opinions, or estimates of near-term earnings. Charlie and I ignore such distractions and instead view our holdings as fractional ownerships in businesses. This is an important distinction. Indeed, this thinking has been the cornerstone of my investment behavior since I was 19. At that time I read Ben Graham’s The Intelligent Investor, and the scales fell from my eyes. (Previously, I had been entranced by the stock market, but didn’t have a clue about how to invest.)

看过这张表的人或许会以为这些股票是根据K线图、经纪人的建议或是公司近期的获利预估来进行买卖，其实查理跟我本人根本就不理会这些，而是以企业所有权人的角度看事情，这是非常大的区别，事实上，这正是我几十年来投资行为的基石所在，自我 19 岁读到格雷厄姆的《聪明投资者》之后，我便茅塞顿开。在此之前，虽然我早已投入股市，但实际上对投资根本就没有一点概念。

Let’s look at how the businesses of our “Big Four” — American Express, Coca-Cola, Gillette and Wells Fargo — have fared since we bought into these companies. As the table shows, we invested $3.83 billion in the four, by way of multiple transactions between May 1988 and October 2003. On a composite basis, our dollar-weighted purchase date is July 1992. By yearend 2004, therefore, we had held these “business interests,” on a weighted basis, about 12.5 years.

接下来看看我们的四大天王美国运通、可口可乐、吉列及富国银行的表现如何，如上表所示，在 1988 年 5 月至 2003 年 10 月期间，我们通过多笔交易向这四家公司的投资了 38.3 亿美元，总的来说，我们平均买进的日期是 1992 年 7 月，截止 2004 年底，我们平均持股的时间是 12.5 年。

In 2004, Berkshire’s share of the group’s earnings amounted to $1.2 billion. These earnings might legitimately be considered “normal.” True, they were swelled because Gillette and Wells Fargo omitted option costs in their presentation of earnings; but on the other hand they were reduced because Coke had a non-recurring write-off.

依持股比例，2004 年伯克希尔可分配到的收益份额高达 12 亿美元，这个数字可以称得上合理，虽然吉列与富国银行因为期权成本不计入费用而收益高估，但同时可口可乐却也提列了一笔非经常性的损失。

Our share of the earnings of these four companies has grown almost every year, and now amounts to about 31.3% of our cost. Their cash distributions to us have also grown consistently, totaling $434 million in 2004, or about 11.3% of cost. All in all, the Big Four have delivered us a satisfactory, though far from spectacular, business result.

我们从这四大天王所占的收益份额几乎每年都稳定的成长，现在已占当初投资成本的 31.3%，所分配的现金股利也同步成长，2004 年达到 4.34 亿美元，约占成本的 11.3%。总的来说，这四大天王给了我们还算满意的回报，尽管远没有达到惊人的程度。

That’s true as well of our experience in the market with the group. Since our original purchases, valuation gains have somewhat exceeded earnings growth because price/earnings ratios have increased. On a year-to-year basis, however, the business and market performances have often diverged, sometimes to an extraordinary degree. During The Great Bubble, market-value gains far outstripped the performance of the businesses. In the aftermath of the Bubble, the reverse was true.

在股价方面的感受也是如此，自我们买进以后，由于市盈率 PE 提升缘故，股价的增幅还高于收益成长的幅度，就个别单一年度而言，股价与企业本身经营状况往往有所分岐，在大泡沫期间，股价的涨幅远远超过本业的表现，至于泡沫破灭之后，其表现则恰恰相反。

Clearly, Berkshire’s results would have been far better if I had caught this swing of the pendulum. That may seem easy to do when one looks through an always-clean, rear-view mirror. Unfortunately, however, it’s the windshield through which investors must peer, and that glass is invariably fogged. Our huge positions add to the difficulty of our nimbly dancing in and out of holdings as valuations swing.

当然，要是我能够掌握钟摆摆动的诀窍，伯克希尔的绩效应当会更好，这种事后诸葛的话人人会说，但只可惜投资人真正需要的是先见之明，无奈前方的景象晖暗不明。随着估值的波动，而我们庞大的投资部位更大大提高了灵活进出的困难度。

Nevertheless, I can properly be criticized for merely clucking about nose-bleed valuations during the Bubble rather than acting on my views. Though I said at the time that certain of the stocks we held were priced ahead of themselves, I underestimated just how severe the overvaluation was. I taIked when I should have walked.

在股市泡沫期间，我只是对着流鼻血的估值老调重谈价值投资理念，却没有按自己的理念卖出，这一点可以受到适度的批评。虽然那时我说过，我们部分的持股市价高于其应有的价值，但我低估了其间的背离程度。坐而言不够，还须起而行。

What Charlie and I would like is a little action now. We don’t enjoy sitting on $43 billion of cash equivalents that are earning paltry returns. Instead, we yearn to buy more fractional interests similar to those we now own or — better still — more large businesses outright. We will do either, however, only when purchases can be made at prices that offer us the prospect of a reasonable return on our investment.

查理跟我实在是应该起来行动了，手上这 430 亿现金不能只靠微薄的利息过日子，我们渴望购买类似于我们手上持有的这些公司的部分权益，当然若是能买断整家公司会更好，然而，只有购买价格能够为我们提供合理投资回报时，我们才会采取行动。

We’ve repeatedly emphasized that the “realized” gains that we report quarterly or annually are meaningless for analytical purposes. We have a huge amount of unrealized gains on our books, and our thinking about when, and if, to cash them depends not at all on a desire to report earnings at one specific time or another. A further complication in our reported gains occurs because GAAP requires that foreign exchange contracts be marked to market, a stipulation that causes unrealized gains or losses in these holdings to flow through our published earnings as if we had sold our positions.

我们一再强调，单一会计期间所示的已实现资本利得不具任何意义。虽然帐上享有大量的未实现资本利得，但我们绝对不会为了让帐面数字好看而去兑现。另外由于 GAAP 会计原则规定外汇投资每季必须按市价调整损益，这使得我们每季的收益波动幅度更为加剧。

Despite the problems enumerated, you may be interested in a breakdown of the gains we reported in 2003 and 2004. The data reflect actual sales except in the case of currency gains, which are a combination of sales and marks to market.

虽然多了以上几项变量，大家可能还是想要了解近两年报告的收益明细。以下数字，除了外汇投资，其余多属已实现资本收益。

Category 分类	Pre-Tax Gain (in $ million) 2004 税前收益2004年（百万美元）	Pre-Tax Gain (in $ million) 2003 税前收益2004年（百万美元）
Common Stocks 普通股	$ 870	$ 448
U.S. Government Bonds 美国联邦政府[[Bonds	债券]]	104
Junk Bonds 垃圾[[Bonds	债券]]	730
Foreign Exchange Contracts 外汇合约	1,839	825
Other 其他	(47)	233
Total 合计	$ 3,496	$ 4,129

The junk bond profits include a foreign exchange component. When we bought these bonds in 2001 and 2002, we focused first, of course, on the credit quality of the issuers, all of which were American corporations. Some of these companies, however, had issued bonds denominated in foreign currencies. Because of our views on the dollar, we favored these for purchase when they were available.

垃圾债券收益包含部分汇兑利益，几年前我们买下这些债券时，首先考量的当然是发行人的债信，他们都是美国公司，其中部分系以外币计价，由于我们认为美元长期走势看贬，所以当初投资时优先购买。

As an example, we bought €254 million of Level 3 bonds (10.75% of 2008) in 2001 at 51.7% of par, and sold these at 85% of par in December 2004. This issue was traded in Euros that cost us 88¢ at the time of purchase but that brought $1.29 w h e n w eso l d . T h u s, o f o u r$ 163 million overall gain, about $85 mi ll i o n c am e f ro m t h e ma r k e t^{'} sre v i se d o p ini o nab o u t L e v e l 3^{'} scre d i tq u a l i t y, w i t h t h ere mainin g$ 78 million resulting from the appreciation of the Euro. (In addition, we received cash interest during our holding period that amounted to about 25% annually on our dollar cost.)

举例来说，我们在 2001 年以 51.7% 的折价买进 Level3 公司面值 2.54 亿欧元的债券（2008 年到期年息率 10.75%），并在 2004 年 12 月以 85% 的票面价格售出，当初买进的时候，欧元对美元的汇率是 1 比 0.88，等到我们卖出时，欧元对美元的汇率已涨升为 1 比 1.29，所以在总计 1.63 亿美元的资本利得当中，8,500 万美元来自市场对于该公司债信的修正，另外 7,800 万则来自于欧元的升值，此外在持有期间我们每年还收到相当于投资成本 25% 的利息收入。

The media continue to report that “Buffett buys” this or that stock. Statements like these are almost always based on filings Berkshire makes with the SEC and are therefore wrong. As I’ve said before, the stories should say “Berkshire buys.”

不论我如何澄清，媒体还是一再报导，“巴菲特买进某些股票”，这些讯息主要的来源是伯克希尔向证券主管机关申报的文件，这样的说法其实并不正确，就像我一再强调的，他们应该要说，这是“*伯克希尔*买进的”。

Portrait of a Disciplined Investor

自律型投资人的典范

Lou Simpson

路易斯·辛普森

Year
年份|Return from GEICO Equities
盖可保险权益回报率|S&P Return
S&P 500权益回报率|Relative Results
相对收益 ---|---:|---:|---: 1980|23.7%|32.3%|(8.6%) 1981|5.4%|(5.0%)|10.4% 1982|45.8%|21.4%|24.4% 1983|36.0%|22.4%|13.6% 1984|21.8%|6.1%|15.7% 1985|45.8%|31.6%|14.2% 1986|38.7%|18.6%|20.1% 1987|(10.0%)|5.1%|(15.1%) 1988|30.0%|16.6%|13.4% 1989|36.1%|31.7%|4.4% 1990|(9.9%)|(3.1%)|(6.8%) 1991|56.5%|30.5%|26.0% 1992|10.8%|7.6%|3.2% 1993|4.6%|10.1%|(5.5%) 1994|13.4%|1.3%|12.1% 1995|39.8%|37.6%|2.2% 1996|29.2%|23.0%|6.2% 1997|24.6%|33.4%|(8.8%) 1998|18.6%|28.6%|(10.0%) 1999|7.2%|21.0%|(13.8%) 2000|20.9%|(9.1%)|30.0% 2001|5.2%|(11.9%)|17.1% 2002|(8.1%)|(22.1%)|14.0% 2003|38.3%|28.7%|9.6% 2004|16.9%|10.9%|6.0% Average Annual Gain 1980-2004
1980年-2004年年化复合收益率|20.3%|13.5%|6.8%

Even then, it is typically not I who make the buying decisions. Lou Simpson manages about $2.5$ 200-$300 million range and are in companies that are smaller than the ones I focus on. Take a look at the facing page to see why Lou is a cinch to be inducted into the investment Hall of Fame.

其实那些投资决策也并非由我所做出，Lou Simpson 管理的 GEICO 投资组合规模约 25 亿美元，伯克希尔申报的交易大多指的是这一部分，一般而言，他买进的标的规模约在 2-3 亿美元之间，比我关注的公司规模要小，对照下表的投资绩效，你就知道 Lou Simpson 进入投资界的名人堂几乎是十拿九稳的事。

You may be surprised to learn that Lou does not necessarily inform me about what he is doing. When Charlie and I assign responsibility, we truly hand1 over the baton — and we give it to Lou just as we do to our operating managers. Therefore, I typically learn of Lou’s transactions about ten days after the end of each month. Sometimes, it should be added, I silently disagree with his decisions. But he’s usually right.

大家或许不相信，路易事前不须跟我报告他的进出动作，当查理跟我授权给经理人时，我们是真的交出指挥大棒，路易是这样，其它旗下业务经理人也是如此。因此，我通常是在每个月结束后十天才知道路易又从事了那些交易，虽然有时候老实说，我并不一定认同他的看法，不过事后证明他总是对的。下表是 Lou Simpson 管理的 GEICO 投资组合的长期绩效：

Foreign Currencies 外汇投资

Berkshire owned about $21.4 billion of foreign exchange contracts at yearend, spread among 12 currencies. As I mentioned last year, holdings of this kind are a decided change for us. Before March 2002, neither Berkshire nor I had ever traded in currencies. But the evidence grows that our trade policies will put unremitting pressure on the dollar for many years to come — so since 2002 we’ve heeded that warning in setting our investment course. (As W.C. Fields once said when asked for a handout: “Sorry, son, all my money’s tied up in currency.“)

截至去年底，伯克希尔总计持有 214 亿美元的外汇仓位，投资组合遍布 12 种外币，去年我就曾说过，这类的投资对我们来说，也是头一遭。在 2002 年以前，伯克希尔跟我本人从来就没有买卖过外汇，但越来越多迹象显示，目前我们的贸易政策，将为往后几年的汇率不断施加压力，有鉴于此，自 2002 年起，我们开始调整投资方向以做为对应，就像老牌喜剧演员 W.C. Fields 所说的一样，“抱歉小子，我的钱全部套牢在外汇上了。”

Be clear on one point: In no way does our thinking about currencies rest on doubts about America. We live in an extraordinarily rich country, the product of a system that values market economics, the rule of law and equality of opportunity. Our economy is far and away the strongest in the world and will continue to be. We are lucky to live here.

大家一定要搞清楚一点，外汇上的投资不代表我们在唱衰美国，因为我们生活在一个极其富有的国度，这个系统相当重视市场经济，尊重法制，每个人都有公平的机会，我们无疑是当今世上最强大的经济体，而且以后也是，我们是何等的幸运。

But as I argued in a November 10, 2003 article in Fortune, (available at berkshirehathaway.com), our country’s trade practices are weighing down the dollar. The decline in its value has already been substantial, but is nevertheless likely to continue. Without policy changes, currency markets could even become disorderly and generate spillover effects, both political and financial. No one knows whether these problems will materialize. But such a scenario is a far-from-remote possibility that policymakers should be considering now. Their bent, however, is to lean toward not-so-benign neglect: A 318-page Congressional study of the consequences of unremitting trade deficits was published in November 2000 and has been gathering dust ever since. The study was ordered after the deficit hit a then-alarming $263 bi ll i o nin 1999; b y l a s t ye a r i t ha d r i se n t o$ 618 billion.

但就像我在 2003 年 11 月 10 日在财富杂志发表的文章所提到的（《财富杂志：我为什么不看好美元》），我们国家现今的贸易政策终将拖垮美元，美元价值目前已大幅下滑，且没有任何好转迹象，若政策不改，外汇市场脱序的情况将不断发生，并在政治与金融面上产生连锁效应，虽然没有人保证影响的层面有多广，政治人物却不得不正视此问题的严重性，但政客们目前所采的态度却是刻意的忽视，一项厚达 318 页的贸易赤字评估报告在 2000 年 11 月国会发表时，曾引发轩然大波，当时美国一年的贸易赤字达到 2,630 亿美元，去年贸易赤字却已达 6,180 亿美元的历史新高。

Charlie and I, it should be emphasized, believe that true trade — that is, the exchange of goods and services with other countries — is enormously beneficial for both us and them. Last year we had $1.15 t r i ll i o n o f s u c hh o n es t - t o - G o d t r a d e an d t h e m oreo f t hi s, t h e b e tt er . B u t, a s n o t e d, o u rco u n t ry a l so p u rc ha se d ana dd i t i o na l$ 618 billion in goods and services from the rest of the world that was unreciprocated. That is a staggering figure and one that has important consequences.

当然必须强调的是，查理跟我都相信，真正的贸易，也就是与他国交换货物与服务的行为，对于彼此都有相当大的益处，去年光是这类的贸易总额就达 1.15 万亿美元，但除此之外，我们另外又向外国多采购了 6,180 亿美元的产品与服务，而这些没有产生任何回报。这个惊人的数字将引发严重的后果。

The balancing item to this one-way pseudo-trade — in economics there is always an offset — is a transfer of wealth from the U.S. to the rest of the world. The transfer may materialize in the form of IOUs our private or governmental institutions give to foreigners, or by way of their assuming ownership of our assets, such as stocks and real estate. In either case, Americans end up owning a reduced portion of our country while non-Americans own a greater part. This force-feeding of American wealth to the rest of the world is now proceeding at the rate of $1.8 bi ll i o n d ai l y, anin cre a seo f 20$ 3 trillion of the U.S. A decade ago their net ownership was negligible.

单向的伪贸易平衡，在经济学上总有对价，维持均衡的结果就是以本国的财富移转到国外，其形式有可能是由私人企业或政府部门所发出的借据，或者是出让股票或房产等资产的所有权，不管怎样，此举将造成美国人拥有自家资产的比例逐渐下滑，平均每天以 18 亿美元的速度流失中，这数字比去年同期又增加了 20%，目前外国人累积持有我国资产已达 3 万亿美元，在十年前这项数字还微乎其微。

The mention of trillions numbs most brains. A further source of confusion is that the current account deficit (the sum of three items, the most important by far being the trade deficit) and our national budget deficit are often lumped as “twins.” They are anything but. They have different causes and different consequences.

上万亿对一般人来说或许是遥不可及的天文数字，更让人容易搞混的是目前的“经常帐户赤字”（由三个项目组成，其中最重要的项目就是贸易逆差），这与我国的“预算赤字”，并称为双胞胎，但两者的成因不同，造成的影响也不同。

A budget deficit in no way reduces the portion of the national pie that goes to Americans. As long as other countries and their citizens have no net ownership of the U.S., 100% of our country’s output belongs to our citizens under any budget scenario, even one involving a huge deficit.

预算赤字不会减少美国人的国家蛋糕份额，仅会造成本国内财富的重分配，别的国家与人民不会增加对我们资产的所有权，也就是说就算是巨额赤字飙上天，国内所有的产出所得，仍将归我国民所有。

As a rich “family” awash in goods, Americans will argue through their legislators as to how government should redistribute the national output — that is who pays taxes and who receives governmental benefits. If “entitlement” promises from an earlier day have to be reexamined, “family members” will angrily debate among themselves as to who feels the pain. Maybe taxes will go up; maybe promises will be modified; maybe more internal debt will be issued. But when the fight is finished, all of the family’s huge pie remains available for its members, however it is divided. No slice must be sent abroad.

当一个国家强盛富裕时，美国人民可通过立法者来争取如何分配国家产出，也就是谁必须付税而谁可以得到政府的补助，如果必须重新审视早期的权力承诺，家族成员便会激烈地争辩谁将受累，或许税收会上涨，或许承诺会调整，或许发行更多公债，但一旦纷争结束，家中所有的饼不管怎么分，依旧是由所有成员来分享，绝不会有外人进来分一杯羹。

Large and persisting current account deficits produce an entirely different result. As time passes, and as claims against us grow, we own less and less of what we produce. In effect, the rest of the world enjoys an ever-growing royalty on American output. Here, we are like a family that consistently overspends its income. As time passes, the family finds that it is working more and more for the “finance company” and less for itself.

但目前积重难返的经常帐户赤字将产生完全不同的结果，随着时间推移，对我们的债权越来越多，我们拥有的越来越少，事实上，世界上其它国家的人们从我们身上抽取的税赋一天比一天高，而我们就像是一个入不敷出的家庭，而且慢慢会发现，辛苦的工作所得，将被债主吸得一干二净。

Should we continue to run current account deficits comparable to those now prevailing, the net ownership of the U.S. by other countries and their citizens a decade from now will amount to roughly $11 t r i ll i o n . A n d, i ff ore i g nin v es t ors w ere t oe a r n o n l y 5$ .55 trillion of goods and services abroad every year merely to service the U.S. investments then held by foreigners. At that date, a decade out, our GDP would probably total about $18 trillion (assuming low inflation, which is far from a sure thing). Therefore, our U.S. “family” would then be delivering 3% of its annual output to the rest of the world simply as tribute for the overindulgences of the past. In this case, unlike that involving budget deficits, the sons would truly pay for the sins of their fathers.

若是我们让经常帐户赤字的情况继续恶化下去，未来十年内外国人持有我国资产的数目将爆增到 11 万亿美元，而若以平均 5% 的投资回报率来计，我们每年还须额外支付 5500 亿美元的劳务与产品给外国人，仅仅是为外国人持有的美国投资提供回报。再过十年，我们的 GDP 可能会是 18 万亿美元（假设维持低通胀，虽然这还不是很确定），届时美国家庭，为了过去的挥霍无度，每年都要奉献出 3% 的全年所得给外国人，在这种状况下，真的就要变成所谓的父债子还了。

This annual royalty paid the world — which would not disappear unless the U.S. massively underconsumed and began to run consistent and large trade surpluses — would undoubtedly produce significant political unrest in the U.S. Americans would still be living very well, indeed better than now because of the growth in our economy. But they would chafe at the idea of perpetually paying tribute to their creditors and owners abroad. A country that is now aspiring to an “Ownership Society” will not find happiness in — and I’ll use hyperbole here for emphasis — a “Sharecropper’s Society.” But that’s precisely where our trade policies, supported by Republicans and Democrats alike, are taking us.

每年要支付给外国投资者的利息，除非是美国人从现在开始缩衣节食，同时持续地增加贸易顺差，否则定将引起国内的政局纷扰，虽然在这种情况下，美国人依旧能够维持不错的生活水平，事实上拜经济成长所赐，甚至过得比现在还好，但光想到每年定期要向外国朝贡，对于一个强调“所有权社会”的国家来说，可能就会引起国人一肚子气，一个现在渴望建立“所有权社会”的国家不会在一个“佃农社会”中找到幸福感。在这里我必须夸张一点地讲，“佃农社会”，这正是共和党与民主党这些政客，准备带领我们前进的方向。

Many prominent U.S. financial figures, both in and out of government, have stated that our current-account deficits cannot persist. For instance, the minutes of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee of June 29-30, 2004 say: “The staff noted that outsized external deficits could not be sustained indefinitely.” But, despite the constant handwringing by luminaries, they offer no substantive suggestions to tame the burgeoning imbalance.

美国政府内外许多重量级的财经学者，都一再重申，目前的经常帐户赤字不可能持续下去，举例来说，美联储公开市场操作委员会于 2004 年 6 月 29-30 日的会议记录中便提到，幕僚群已注意到我们绝对无法负荷长期大量的外部赤字，尽管一些重量级人物不断大声疾呼，但实际上他们还是无法提出彻底解决贸易赤字的具体方案。

In the article I wrote for Fortune 16 months ago, I warned that “a gently declining dollar would not provide the answer.” And so far it hasn’t. Yet policymakers continue to hope for a “soft landing,” meanwhile counseling other countries to stimulate (read “inflate”) their economies and Americans to save more. In my view these admonitions miss the mark: There are deep-rooted structural problems that will cause America to continue to run a huge current-account deficit unless trade policies either change materially or the dollar declines by a degree that could prove unsettling to financial markets.

在我 16 个月以前于财富杂志刊登的一篇文章当中，我就曾警告，持续贬值的美元并不能解决问题，到目前为止，确是如此，然而政府官员却依然希望经济能够软着陆，同时敦促本国人省着点花用，其它国家刺激(应该说是膨胀)本国经济，在我看来这些建言都没有切中要点，除非贸易政策大幅改弦更张或是美元大幅贬值到惊天动地的程度，否则根深蒂固的结构性失衡问题仍将持续困扰金融市场的运作。

Proponents of the trade status quo are fond of quoting Adam Smith: “What is prudence in the conduct of every family can scarce be folly in that of a great kingdom. If a foreign country can supply us with a commodity cheaper than we ourselves can make it, better buy it of them with some part of the produce of our own industry, employed in a way in which we have some advantage.”

赞成维持现状的支持者喜欢引用亚当史密斯的话，如果每个家庭的做法都审慎无误，那么整个国家的方向就错不了，如果外国人能够生产出比我们自己还要便宜的东西，那当然是用我们自家产出较具竞争优势的东西拿来做交换。

I agree. Note, however, that Mr. Smith’s statement refers to trade of product for product, not of wealth for product as our country is doing to the tune of $.6 trillion annually. Moreover, I am sure that he would never have suggested that “prudence” consisted of his “family” selling off part of its farm every day in order to finance its overconsumption. Yet that is just what the “great kingdom” called the United States is doing.

我同意这点，但是请注意，史密斯先生的说法，指的是以物易物，而不是拿财富来做交换，尤其是当我们一年要典当 6,000 亿美元的资产，同时我相信他同样也不赞同家人以变卖资产的方式来弭补过度消费的缺口，而很不幸的，这正是当今最伟大的国家美国正在做的事。

If the U.S. was running a S.6 trillion current-account surplus, commentators worldwide would violently condemn our policy, viewing it as an extreme form of “mercantilism” — a long-discredited economic strategy under which countries fostered exports, discouraged imports, and piled up treasure. I would condemn such a policy as well. But, in effect if not in intent, the rest of the world is practicing mercantilism in respect to the U.S., an act made possible by our vast store of assets and our pristine credit history. Indeed, the world would never let any other country use a credit card denominated in its own currency to the insatiable extent we are employing ours. Presently, most foreign investors are sanguine: they may view us as spending junkies， but they know we are rich junkies as well.

换个角度来说，如果美国现在享有的是 6,000 亿美元的贸易顺差的话，其它国家一定会立刻跳出来谴责我们的贸易政策，将之视为重商主义，也就是长久以来，为人所垢病的鼓励出口、压抑进口、囤积财富的经济政策，我也会谴责这种做法。但事实上就算不是有意的，目前世界上其它国家确实正对美国实行重商主义，觊谀我国丰厚的资产以及深厚的家底。确实除了美国以外，世界上再也没有其它国家可以享有几乎无上限的信用额度，截至目前为止，大部分的外国人还是相当乐观，他们认定我们是花钱如流水的败家子，而且是极其富有的败家子。

Our spendthrift behavior won’t, however, be tolerated indefinitely. And though it’s impossible to forecast just when and how the trade problem will be resolved, it’s improbable that the resolution will foster an increase in the value of our currency relative to that of our trading partners.

但我们这种挥金如土的行为，不可能无限制地持续下去，虽然很难预估这样的贸易问题未来将如何收尾，但可以肯定的是，绝对不可能依靠美元对其它货币大幅升值的结局。

We hope the U.S. adopts policies that will quickly and substantially reduce the current-account deficit. True, a prompt solution would likely cause Berkshire to record losses on its foreign-exchange contracts. But Berkshire’s resources remain heavily concentrated in dollar-based assets, and both a strong dollar and a low-inflation environment are very much in our interest.

我们很希望美国能够提出一套立即解决贸易逆差的方案，虽然，这样将使得伯克希尔帐上立即产生大量的外汇交易损失，但由于伯克希尔大部分的资产还是摆在以美元为计价的资产之上，强势的美元以及低通膨的环境还是我们的最爱。

If you wish to keep abreast of trade and currency matters, read The Financial Times. This London-based paper has long been the leading source for daily international financial news and now has an excellent American edition. Both its reporting and commentary on trade are first-class.

如果你想要持续追踪贸易与汇率问题，建议你看《金融时报》，这份伦敦地区发行的报纸长期引领国际金融讯息，同时还发行有美国版，它们在贸易方面的报导与社论都堪称一流。

And, again, our usual caveat: macro-economics is a tough game in which few people, Charlie and I included, have demonstrated skill. We may well turn out to be wrong in our currency judgments. (Indeed, the fact that so many pundits now predict weakness for the dollar makes us uneasy.) If so, our mistake will be very public. The irony is that if we chose the opposite course, leaving all of Berkshire’s assets in dollars even as they declined significantly in value, no one would notice our mistake.

当然照例我还是要提出警告，宏观经济是没有人搞得懂的玩意儿，包括查理和我在内，很少有人展现出特别技巧。我们在汇率上的判断不一定对，事实上，近来也有很多专家跟着凑热闹，一起高喊美元弱势的现象，反而让我们觉得不安。果真如此，那我们可就糗大了。讽刺的是，要是我们按兵不动，将伯克希尔的资金摆在美元资产之上，就算其价值大幅下滑，反而没有人会注意。

John Maynard Keynes said in his masterful The General Theory: “Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally.” (Or, to put it in less elegant terms, lemmings as a class may be derided but never does an individual lemming get criticized.) From a reputational standpoint, Charlie and I run a clear risk with our foreign-exchange commitment. But we believe in managing Berkshire as if we owned 100% of it ourselves. And, were that the case, we would not be following a dollar-only policy.

约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯在其名著《通论》中曾经提到：普世的智慧告诉我们，寻常的失败可能比不寻常的成功对声誉的影响更好。或者讲得再通俗一点，旅鼠或许以愚蠢著称，但却没有任何一只旅鼠单独挨骂。若是从声誉的角度来说，查理跟我在外汇上的作法，很可能让自己的面子挂不住，但我们还是尽心尽力的经营伯克希尔就好像我们 100% 拥有一样，这也是我们不独爱美元资产的根本原因。

Miscellaneous 其它事项

Last year I told you about a group of University of Tennessee finance students who played a key role in our $1.7 billion acquisition of Clayton Homes. Earlier, they had been brought to Omaha by their professor, Al Auxier — he brings a class every year — to tour Nebraska Furniture Mart and Borsheim’s, eat at Gorat’s and have a Q&A session with me at Kiewit Plaza. These visitors, like those who come for our annual meeting, leave impressed by both the city and its friendly residents.

去年我告诉各位有一群田纳西大学金融专业的学生，在我们 17 亿美元并购 Clayton 公司中扮演了关键性的角色。每年他们一个班固定由 Al Auxier 教授带队到奥马哈实习，参观内布拉斯加家具店及波仙珠宝店，到 Gorat’s 吃牛排，同时与我在Kiewit总部来一场问答，这群访客，如同每年来参加股东年会的股东一样，都对本市及其市民留下深刻的印象。

Other colleges and universities have now come calling. This school year we will have visiting classes, ranging in size from 30 to 100 students, from Chicago, Dartmouth(Tuck),Delaware State, Florida State, Indiana, Iowa, Iowa State, Maryland, Nebraska, Northwest Nazarene, Pennsylvania (Wharton), Stanford, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, Toronto (Rotman), Union and Utah. Most of the students are MBA candidates, and I’ve been impressed by their quality. They are keenly interested in business and investments, but their questions indicate that they also have more on their minds than simply making money. I always feel good after meeting them.

之后其它大专院校的学生也开始陆续造访，这一学年将会有来自芝加哥、达特茅斯(塔克)、特拉华州、佛罗里达州、印地安纳州、爱荷华州、马里兰州、内布拉斯加州、宾西法尼亚州（沃顿）、斯坦福大学、田纳西州、德州 A&M、多伦多（罗特曼）、犹他州等地的学生，人数从 30 到 100 人不等，大部分都是 MBA 的学生，我对于他们的素质印象深刻，他们对于商业与投资深感兴趣，而且从所提的问题看得出他们不只是想赚钱而已，我总是很喜欢跟他们见面。

At our sessions, I tell the newcomers the story of the Tennessee group and its spotting of Clayton Homes. I do this in the spirit of the farmer who enters his hen house with an ostrich egg and admonishes the flock: “I don’t like to complain, girls, but this is just a small sample of what the competition is doing.” To date, our new scouts have not brought us deals. But their mission in life has been made clear to them.

在会面中，我告诉新来的访客有关田纳西州学生以及 Clayton 公司的故事，我之所以这么做，主要是出于一个农夫的精神，他拿着一颗鸵鸟蛋走进鸡舍时，告诫鸡群道“我不喜欢抱怨，但这是竞争对手的一个小样本！”，目前为止，我们这些新同学还没有为我们带来新案子，不过我想我应该已经很清楚地告诉他们的任务了。

You should be aware of an accounting rule that mildly distorts our financial statements in a pain-today, gain-tomorrow manner. Berkshire purchases life insurance policies from individuals and corporations who would otherwise surrender them for cash. As the new holder of the policies, we pay any premiums that become due and ultimately — when the original holder dies — collect the face value of the policies.

大家应该意识到，一项会让我们今天的财务报表扭曲的会计原则，明天肯定会给我们回报，伯克希尔以现金向原本有意将保单贴现的个人及企业购买人寿保单，身为这些保单的新持有人，我们将支付后续到期的保费，等到原保单持有人过世后，我们则向保险公司领取保险理赔金。

The original policyholder is usually in good health when we purchase the policy. Still, the price we pay for it is always well above its cash surrender value (“CSV”’). Sometimes the original policyholder has borrowed against the CSV to make premium payments. In that case, the remaining CSV will be tiny and our purchase price will be a large multiple of what the original policyholder would have received, had he cashed out by surrendering it.

在买进保单之时，其原持有人的身体状况一般都不错，且我们买进的价格通常远高于保单现有价值（CSV, cash surrender value），有时原持有人甚至用 CSV 抵押借款来支付保费，在这种情况下，剩余的保单价值并不高，所以卖给我们的价格可能是他们自行向保险公司贴现的好几倍。

Under accounting rules, we must immediately charge as a realized capital loss the excess over CSV that we pay upon purchasing the policy. We also must make additional charges each year for the amount by which the premium we pay to keep the policy in force exceeds the increase in CSV. But obviously, we don’t think these bookkeeping charges represent economic losses. If we did, we wouldn’t buy the policies.

依照会计原则，我们在买进保单的同时，必须马上就买进价格与贴现价值的差异，认列一笔已实现的资本损失，同时以后每年还必须就当年度支付保费与贴现价值的差异提列支出费用，当然我们很清楚这仅仅是帐面上的损失，不代表真正的经济损失。因为我们这么做，显然是有利可图。

During 2004, we recorded net “losses” from the purchase of policies (and from the premium payments required to maintain them) totaling $207 million, which was charged against realized investment gains in our earnings statement (included in “other” in the table on page 17).When the proceeds from these policies are received in the future, we will record as realized investment gain the excess over the then-CSV.

2004 年，我们光是在这方面认列的损失就有 2.07 亿美元，列为其它资本利得的减项，当然日后等我们拿到理赔金时，也必须就实际收取金额与保单贴现价值的差异认列资本利得。

Two post-bubble governance reforms have been particularly useful at Berkshire, and I fault myself for not putting them in place many years ago. The first involves regular meetings of directors without the CEO present. I’ve sat on 19 boards, and on many occasions this process would have led to dubious plans being examined more thoroughly. In a few cases, CEO changes that were needed would also have been made more promptly. There is no downside to this process, and there are many possible benefits.

有两项后泡沫时代的治理改革，对伯克希尔特别受用，而我很后悔没有早一点就付诸实施，第一项是推动定期召开 CEO 不得列席的董事会。我总计担任十九家公司的董事，而通常的情况下，这个过程会导致对可疑提案进行更彻底的审查。在少数情况下，必要的 CEO 更替也会更迅速的执行。这个方案没有任何坏处，同时还可带来正面的助益。

The second reform concerns the “whistleblower line,” an arrangement through which employees can send information to me and the board’s audit committee without fear of reprisal. Berkshire’s extreme decentralization makes this system particularly valuable both to me and the committee. (In a sprawling “city” of 180,000 — Berkshire’s current employee count — not every sparrow that falls will be noticed at headquarters.) Most of the complaints we have received are of “the guy next to me has bad breath” variety, but on occasion I have learned of important problems at our subsidiaries that I otherwise would have missed. The issues raised are usually not of a type discoverable by audit, but relate instead to personnel and business practices. Berkshire would be more valuable today if I had put in a whistleblower line decades ago.

第二项改革是“检举热线”，也就是公司所有员工都能够有渠道向我本人及董事会的审计委员会提供讯息，而不必担心遭到报复。伯克希尔极端的分权化，突显这项制度对我和委员会的重要性，在庞大如伯克希尔的帝国，员工人数已达 18 万人，总部不可能知道所有事情。在我们收到的投诉中，大部分是「坐在我隔壁的人有口臭」之类的抱怨，但偶尔我也会了解到子公司的一些会忽视掉的重大弊病，这些问题通常不容易经由正常的审查发现，而是关于个人行为与业务实践，我想当初若是早一点实施投诉改革，伯克希尔将可以更加美好。

Charlie and I love the idea of shareholders thinking and behaving like owners. Sometimes that requires them to be pro-active. And in this arena large institutional owners should lead the way.

查理跟我一向推崇股东以老板的想法与做法自居，有时这需要他们主动一点，特别是大型机构投资人更应该身先士卒。

So far, however, the moves made by institutions have been less than awe-inspiring. Usually, they’ve focused on minutiae and ignored the three questions that truly count. First, does the company have the right CEO? Second, is he/she overreaching in terms of compensation? Third, are proposed acquisitions more likely to create or destroy per-share value?

可惜到目前为止，他们的举措仍乏善可陈，通常他们过于重视细节，却忘了最重要的三个关键问题，第一，公司 CEO 是否适任？第二，他的薪资是否过分？第三，拟议并购是否有损股东价值？

On such questions, the interests of the CEO may well differ from those of the shareholders. Directors, moreover, sometimes lack the knowledge or gumption to overrule the CEO. Therefore, it’s vital that large owners focus on these three questions and speak up when necessary.

关于这些问题，CEO 的利益往往与股东大相径庭，而董事们有时可能缺乏否决 CEO 决定的智慧或勇气，也因此大股东对于这三个关键问题，同时大声说出自己的看法，就显得相当重要。

Instead many simply follow a “checklist” approach to the issue du jour. Last year I was on the receiving end of a judgment reached in that manner. Several institutional shareholders and their advisors decided I lacked “independence” in my role as a director of Coca-Cola. One group wanted me removed from the board and another simply wanted me booted from the audit committee.

结果有很多人只是按照检查清单的方式例行公事。去年，我就是此类方式做出裁决的受害者。几位机构股东和他们的顾问认定我担任可口可乐的董事缺乏独立性，其中有一个机构要求我退出该公司的董事会，另外一个好一点，只想把我赶出审计委员会。

My first impulse was to secretly fund the group behind the second idea. Why anyone would wish to be on an audit committee is beyond me. But since directors must be assigned to one committee or another, and since no CEO wants me on his compensation committee, it’s often been my lot to get an audit committee assignment. As it turned out, the institutions that opposed me failed and I was re-elected to the audit job. (I fought off the urge to ask for a recount.)

我头一个反应是，我或许该偷偷地捐款给第二个机构，我不知道到底是谁想要待在审计委员会，通常董事会成员被分配到各个委员会，但由于没有任何一位 CEO 希望我待在薪酬委员会，所以一般我都会被安排到审计委员会。结果证明，这些机构的努力功败垂成，我还是被分到审计的任务，我忍住了要求重新投票的冲动。

Some institutions questioned my “independence” because, among other things, McLane and Dairy Queen buy lots of Coke products. (Do they want us to favor Pepsi?) But independence is defined in Webster’s as “not subject to control by others.” I’m puzzled how anyone could conclude that our Coke purchases would “control” my decision-making when the counterweight is the well-being of $8 billion of Coke stock held by Berkshire. Assuming I’m even marginally rational, elementary arithmetic should make it clear that my heart and mind belong to the owners of Coke, not to its management.

有些机构因为伯克希尔子公司 McLane 和冰雪皇后购买大量可口可乐产品，而质疑我的独立性，（难道他们希望我们改买百事可乐吗？），根据韦氏大辞典关于“独立”的定义，指的是“不受他人所控制”，我实在搞不懂，怎么会有人认为我会为了其间的蝇头小利，而牺牲个人在可口可乐高达 80 亿的股东权益，再退一步想，就算是小学生也应该知道，我的心是站在公司股东这边，而不是管理层那一边。

I can’t resist mentioning that Jesus understood the calibration of independence far more clearly than do the protesting institutions. In Matthew 6:21 He observed: “For where your treasure is, there will your heart be also.” Even to an institutional investor, $8 billion should qualify as “treasure” that dwarfs any profits Berkshire might earn on its routine transactions with Coke.

我忍不住要说，连耶稣基督都比这些抗议团体还要了解独立性的真义，在马修 6：21 章节中，他提到，“你的财富在那里，你的心就在那里”，我想即便对一个大型投资机构来说，80 亿美元也绝对是一笔不小的数目，远远超过与可口可乐往来能赚取的蝇头小利。

Measured by the biblical standard, the Berkshire board is a model: (a) every director is a member of a family owning at least $4 million of stock; (b) none of these shares were acquired from Berkshire via options or grants; (c) no directors receive committee, consulting or board fees from the company that are more than a tiny portion of their annual income; and (d) although we have a standard corporate indemnity arrangement, we carry no liability insurance for directors.

根据圣经的标准，伯克希尔的董事会堪称典范：（a）每位董事至少将 400 万美元以上的身家摆在伯克希尔；（b）这些股份都不少靠期权或赠与取得；（c）董事们领取的酬劳相较于自身的年所得都极其有限；（d）虽然我们有一套企业赔偿机制，但我们并没有替董事们安排任何责任保险。

At Berkshire, board members travel the same road as shareholders.

在伯克希尔，董事们与所有股东站在同一条船上。

Charlie and I have seen much behavior confirming the Bible’s “treasure” point. In our view, based on our considerable boardroom experience, the least independent directors are likely to be those who receive an important fraction of their annual income from the fees they receive for board service (and who hope as well to be recommended for election to other boards and thereby to boost their income further). Yet these are the very board members most often classed as “independent.”

查理跟我已看过很多符合圣经所说“宝藏”观点的种种行为，根据多年的董事会经验，最不独立的董事当属那些依赖董事酬劳过生活的人，他们期待被推荐加入其他董事会，从而进一步增加收入。更可笑的是，正是这些人被归类为独立的董事。

Most directors of this type are decent people and do a first-class job. But they wouldn’t be human if they weren’t tempted to thwart actions that would threaten their livelihood. Some may go on to succumb to such temptations.

这类董事举止大多彬彬有礼，且有一流的工作，但人的天性使得他们不得不反对可能危及其生计的任何方案，基于诱惑而继续沉沦下去。

Let’s look at an example based upon circumstantial evidence. I have first-hand knowledge of a recent acquisition proposal (not from Berkshire) that was favored by management, blessed by the company’s investment banker and slated to go forward at a price above the level at which the stock had sold for some years (or now sells for). In addition, a number of directors favored the transaction and wanted it proposed to shareholders.

让我们看看周遭现实的状况为何，关于最近刚传出的一件并购案（与伯克希尔无关），我有第一手的资料，管理层相当青睐这件收购案，而投资银行也觉得相当不错，因为并购价格远高于目前股票的市价，此外许多董事也相当赞同，并准备提案到股东会表决。

Several of their brethren, however, each of whom received board and committee fees totaling about $100,000 annually, scuttled the proposal, which meant that shareholders never learned of this multi-billion offer. Non-management directors owned little stock except for shares they had received from the company. Their open-market purchases in recent years had meanwhile been nominal, even though the stock had sold far below the acquisition price proposed. In other words, these directors didn’t want the shareholders to be offered X even though they had consistently declined the opportunity to buy stock for their own account at a fraction of X.

然而就在此时，有几位董事会的同僚，每位每年平均都从公司领取超过十万美元酬劳，却跳出来大表反对，最后使得这件金额高达数十亿美元的并购案胎死腹中，这些未参与公司实际经营的外部董事，仅持有极少数的股权，且多数为公司所赠与，且很奇怪的是，虽然目前的股价远低于并购的提案价格，却不见他们自己从市场买进多少股份，换言之，这些董事压根就不希望股东们提出 X 价格的报价，同时自己却也不愿从市场上以 X 价格买进部分股权。

I don’t know which directors opposed letting shareholders see the offer. But I do know that $100,000 is an important portion of the annual income of some of those deemed “independent,” clearly meeting the Matthew 6:21 definition of “treasure.” If the deal had gone through, these fees would have ended.

我不知道到底是那几位董事反对让股东们看到相关的报价，但我却很清楚这十万美元的酬劳，对这些被外界视为独立的董事来说，至关紧要，绝对称得上圣经上所说的财富，而万一这件并购案要是谈成了，他们每年固定可以领取的董事酬劳将因此泡汤。

Neither the shareholders nor I will ever know what motivated the dissenters. Indeed they themselves will not likely know, given that self-interest inevitably blurs introspection. We do know one thing, though: At the same meeting at which the deal was rejected, the board voted itself a significant increase in directors’ fees.

我想不论是我或是该公司的股东，永远都不会知道是谁提出反对的议案，而基于私利，这群人也永远不知道要如何反省，但至少我还知道一件事，那就是就在拒绝这项收购案的同一次董事会上，另一项大幅提高董事酬劳的提岸却获得通过。

While we are on the subject of self-interest, let’s turn again to the most important accounting mechanism still available to CEOs who wish to overstate earnings: the non-expensing of stock options. The accomplices in perpetuating this absurdity have been many members of Congress who have defied the arguments put forth by all Big Four auditors, all members of the Financial Accounting Standards Board and virtually all investment professionals.

既然我们提到利己主义的话题，就让我们再来聊聊最容易让管理层夸大收益的最重要的会计手法，也就是股票期权的非费用化。参与这项荒谬闹剧的共犯包含国会议员，他们公然蔑视四大会计师事务所以及会计准则委员会 FASB 所有成员及众多投资专家所提的建言。

I’m enclosing an op-ed piece I wrote for The Washington Post describing a truly breathtaking bill that was passed 312-111 by the House last summer. Thanks to Senator Richard Shelby, the Senate didn’t ratify the House’s foolishness. And, to his great credit, Bill Donaldson, the investor-minded Chairman of the SEC, has stood firm against massive political pressure, generated by the check-waving CEOs who first muscled Congress in 1993 about the issue of option accounting and then repeated the tactic last year.

附件有一篇我曾在《华盛顿邮报》刊登的社论（Stock Options and Common Sense，2002/4/9），文中提到去年夏天在众议院以 312 票对 111 票通过的一项惊世骇俗的法案，多亏参议员 Richard Shelby 的阻挡，参议院最后并未批准众议院的愚蠢行为，另外 SEC 主席 Bill Donaldson 以其一生清誉，坚定抵挡强大的政治压力，大企业 CEO 们企图利用政治献金游说国会议员，重施在 1993 年封杀期权会计原则实行的故技。

Because the attempts to obfuscate the stock-option issue continue, it’s worth pointing out that no one — neither the FASB, nor investors generally, nor I — are talking about restricting the use of options in any way. Indeed, my successor at Berkshire may well receive much of his pay via options, albeit logically-structured ones in respect to 1) an appropriate strike price, 2) an escalation in price that reflects the retention of earnings, and 3) a ban on his quickly disposing of any shares purchased through options. We cheer arrangements that motivate managers, whether these be cash bonuses or options. And if a company is truly receiving value for the options it issues, we see no reason why recording their cost should cut down on their use.

由于让期权议题模糊化的力量毫不停歇，所以我还是要不厌其烦地再一次强调，包含财务会计准则委员会 FASB，一般投资大众以及我本人在内，从来就没有人主张限制股票期权的使用，事实上，包含未来伯克希尔的继任者在内，都很有可能会经由期权获得大量的薪酬，只不过这种期权必须经过各方面的仔细核算，包含（1）适当的执行价格；（2）将保留收益本身的增长能力考量在内；（3）限制其在取得股份后不久就处份。我们赞成任何激励管理层的措施，不管是现金或者是股票期权，而若期权的发行真有助于公司价值的提升，我们看不出有任何理由只因为必须将其成本列为费用就弃而不用。

The simple fact is that certain CEOs know their own compensation would be far more rationally determined if options were expensed. They also suspect that their stock would sell at a lower price if realistic accounting were employed, meaning that they would reap less in the market when they unloaded their personal holdings. To these CEOs such unpleasant prospects are a fate to be fought with all the resources they have at hand — even though the funds they use in that fight normally don’t belong to them, but are instead put up by their shareholders.

真正的原因其实很简单，那就是某些 CEO 明知一旦将期权费用化后，他们所获取的酬劳突然间将被迫全部摊开在阳光底下，同时费用化也将影响其未来处置其持股的价格，后者关乎其真正获得的回报，这使得他们必须倾全力悍卫自己的利益，讽刺的是，他们用的还是公司的钱，这全是股东们的血汗钱。

Option-expensing is scheduled to become mandatory on June 15th. You can therefore expect intensified efforts to stall or emasculate this rule between now and then. Let your Congressman and Senators know what you think on this issue.

期权费用化将在今年 6 月 15 日起强制实行，大家可以预期此后将不断有人企图阻止或是废除相关规定，去之而后快，务必让你选区的议员知道你对于这项议题的立场。

The Annual Meeting 年度股东大会

There are two changes this year concerning the annual meeting. First, we have scheduled the meeting for the last Saturday in April (the 30th), rather than the usual first Saturday in May. This year Mother’s Day falls on May 8, and it would be unfair to ask the employees of Borsheim’s and Gorat’s to take care of us at that special time — so we’ve moved everything up a week. Next year we’ll return to our regular timing, holding the meeting on May 6, 2006.

关于股东年会今年有两项变革，首先由于母亲节缘故，股东大会日期改为 4 月的最后一个周六（也就是 4 月 30 日），而不是以往的 5 月第一个周六，实在是不好意思要求波仙珠宝及 Gorat’s 牛排店在这个重要节日来为我们服务，因此我们决定提早一个周举行，明年我们就会恢复以往惯例，在 2006 年 5 月 6 日召开。

Additionally, we are changing the sequence of events on meeting day, April 30. Just as always, the doors will open at the Qwest Center at 7 a.m. and the movie will be shown at 8:30. At 9:30, however. we will go directly to the question and answer period, which (allowing for lunch at the Qwest’s stands) will last until 3:00. Then, after a short recess, Charlie and I will convene the annual meeting at 3:15.

此外，我们也改变了开会当天的程序，Qwest 中心的大门还是会在早上 7 点钟准时开放、电影短片照例会在 8 点半播放，不过问答的时间会提早到 9 点半开始，（会场中午备有点心摊位），一直到下午 3 点为止，然后在短暂的休息之后，在 3:15 开始召开正式会议

We have made this change because a number of shareholders complained last year about the time consumed by two speakers who advocated proposals of limited interest to the majority of the audience — and who were no doubt relishing their chance to talk to a captive group of about 19,500. With our new procedure, those shareholders who wish to hear it all can stick around for the formal meeting and those who don’t can leave — or better yet shop.

之所以会这样做，是因为有些股东抱怨去年有两位股东提出两项无关紧要的议题，浪费在座 19,500 位股东宝贵的时间，在改变程序之后，那些想要畅所欲言，全程参与的股东，可以一直待到会议结束，而没有兴趣浪费时间的股东也可提早离开去血拼。

There will be plenty of opportunity for that pastime in the vast exhibition hall that adjoins the meeting area. Kelly Muchemore, the Flo Ziegfeld of Berkshire, put on a magnificent shopping extravaganza last year, and she says that was just a warm-up for this year. (Kelly, I am delighted to report, is getting married in October. I’m giving her away and suggested that she make a little history by holding the wedding at the annual meeting. She balked, however, when Charlie insisted that he be the ringbearer.)

当天在会场旁边的展场也会有许多娱兴节目，Kelly Muchemore 伯克希尔的FloZiegfeld去年布置了一件大型的展览品，不过她说去年只是热身而已，我很高兴向大家报告，Kelly 在去年十月结婚，我本来建议她选在股东大会时举行婚礼，可惜由于查理坚持要做男伴郎而作罢。

Again we will showcase a 2,100 square foot Clayton home (featuring Acme brick, Shaw carpet, Johns Manville insulation, MiTek fasteners, Carefree awnings and NFM furniture). Take a tour through the home. Better yet, buy it.

我们将再一次在会场展示一个 2,100 平方英尺的 Clayton 预制房屋，配备有 Acme 砖块、Shaw 地毯、Johns Manville 隔热材料、MiTek 连接件、Carefree 屋檐及内布拉斯加家具店家具，记得来参观一下，最好顺便买一套。

GEICO will have a booth staffed by a number of its top counselors from around the country, all of them ready to supply you with auto insurance quotes. In most cases, GEICO will be able to give you a special shareholder discount (usually 8%). This special offer is permitted by 45 of the 50 jurisdictions in which we operate. Bring the details of your existing insurance and check out whether we can save you money.

GEICO 公司会再度派出各地区最顶尖的业务员，在会场设立摊位，随时提供股东们汽车保单的报价，在大多数的情况下，GEICO 都可以提供给你一个相当优惠的股东折扣（大约8%），这个特别优惠在我们有营业据点的全美 50 州中的 45 州都有效，各位记得将自己现在的投保资料带来，看看是否能帮自己省下一笔钱。

On Saturday, at the Omaha airport, we will have the usual array of aircraft from NetJets® available for your inspection. Stop by the NetJets booth at the Qwest to learn about viewing these planes. Come to Omaha by bus; leave in your new plane.

周六在奥马哈机场，我们仍将展示 NetJets 一系列的机队供大家参观，请到 Qwest 会场向 EJA 的业务代表洽询参观的事宜，来的时候坐车，回去可以搭飞机。

The Bookworm shop did a terrific business last year selling Berkshire-related books. Displaying 18 titles, they sold 2,920 copies for $61,000. Since we charge the shop no rent (I must be getting soft), it gives shareholders a 20% discount. This year I’ve asked The Bookworm to add Graham Allison’s Nuclear Terrorism: The Ultimate Preventable Catastrophe, a must-read for those concerned with the safety of our country. In addition, the shop will premiere Poor Charlie’s Almanack, a book compiled by Peter Kaufman. Scholars have for too long debated whether Charlie is the reincarnation of Ben Franklin. This book should settle the question.

去年书虫书店在会场设摊销售伯克希尔相关书籍，全部 18 种，总计卖出 2,920 本，因为摊位不收租金（我越来越好讲话了），所以股东买书都可以打 8 折，今年我特地要求书虫增加 Graham Allison 所著的《核恐怖主义:可预防的终极灾害》，这是所有关心国家安危必读的书籍，此外当天还会发行 Peter Kaufman 所著《穷查理宝典》，一直以来许多学者都在争论查理是否为富兰克林再世，我想这本书或可解决大家的疑问。

An attachment to the proxy material that is enclosed with this report explains how you can obtain the credential you will need for admission to the meeting and other events. As for plane, hotel and car reservations, we have again signed up American Express (800-799-6634) to give you special help. They do a terrific job for us each year, and I thank them for it.

后面附有股东会开会投票的相关资料，向各位解释如何拿到股东会入场及其它活动必须的识别证，至于有关机位、住宿、租车等预订服务，我们很高兴与美国运通（电话 800-799-6634）再次签约为您提供相关安排，每年他们都为大家提供非常好的服务，在此谨代表大家向他们说声谢谢。

At Nebraska Furniture Mart, located on a 77-acre site on 72nd Street between Dodge and Pacific. we will again be having “Berkshire Weekend” pricing. We initiated this special event at NFM eight years ago, and sales during the “Weekend” grew from $5.3 mi ll i o nin 1997 t o$ 25.1 million in 2004 (up 45% from a year earlier). Every year has set a new record, and on Saturday of last year, we had the largest single-day sales in NFM’s history — $6.1 million.

位于道奇街与太平洋街占地 77 英亩的内布拉斯加家具店，再度会有伯克希尔周特卖，我们在八年前首次推出这种促销活动，营业额更一举从 1997 年的 530 万美元成长到 2004 年的 2,510 万美元，每年的销售成绩持续创新高，去年股东会周末再度创下单日营业额新高 610 万美元。

To get the discount, you must make your purchases between Thursday, April 28 and Monday, May 2 inclusive, and also present your meeting credential. The period’s special pricing will even apply to the products of several prestigious manufacturers that normally have ironclad rules against discounting but that, in the spirit of our shareholder weekend, have made an exception for you. We appreciate their cooperation. NFM is open from 10 a.m. to 9 p.m. Monday through Saturday, and 10 a.m. to 6 p.m. on Sunday. On Saturday this year, from 5:30 p.m. to 8 p.m. we are having a special affair for shareholders only. I’ll be there, eating barbeque and drinking Coke.

想要享有折扣记得在 4 月 28 日周四到 5 月 2 日周一间采购，并出示股东开会证明，在这期间的特卖活动也适用于许多原本从不打折的顶级品牌，这可是为了股东会才特别破例，我们很感谢他们的配合，内布拉斯加家具店的营业时间平日从早上 10 点到下午 9 点，周六及周日则从早上 10 点到下午 6 点，在今年的周六，我们将有一个股东会特卖会，时间从下午 5 点半到下午 8 点，我本人也将出席，顺便吃点烤肉配配可乐。

Borsheim’s — the largest jewelry store in the country except for Tiffany’s Manhattan store —will have two shareholder-only events. The first will be a cocktail reception from 6 p.m. to 10 p.m. on Friday, April 29. The second, the main gala, will be from 9 a.m. to 4 p.m. on Sunday, May 1. On Saturday, we will be open until 6p.m.

波仙珠宝是全美单店营业额仅次于纽约曼哈顿蒂芙尼的珠宝店，在股东会期间将会有两场专为股东举办的展览会，第一场是在 4 月 29 日周五的鸡尾酒会，时间从下午 6 点到晚上 10 点，第二场大型售卖活动则在 5 月 1 日周日举行，从早上 9 点到下午 4 点，周六则营业到下午 6 点。

We will have huge crowds at Borsheim’s throughout the weekend. For your convenience, therefore, shareholder prices will be available from Monday, April 25 through Saturday, May 7. During that period, just identify yourself as a shareholder through your meeting credentials or a brokerage statement.

整个周末波仙都将人满为患，从 4 月 25 日周一到 5 月 7 日周六的股东会期间，波仙都将提供股东特惠价，只要出示出席证或者是委托书表明股东的身分即可享有折扣。

Borsheim’s operates on a gross margin that is fully twenty percentage points below that of its major rivals, even before the shareholders’ discount. Last year, business over the weekend increased 73% from 2003, setting a record that will be tough to beat. Show me it can be done.

波仙的营业毛利要比其它主要竞争对手要低 20 个百分点以上，去年的营业额较前年又成长了 73%，再度创下历史的新高，让我们努力把它打破。

In a tent outside of Borsheim’s, Patrick Wolff, twice U.S. chess champion, will take on all comers in groups of six — blindfolded. Additionally, we will have Bob Hamman and Sharon Osberg, two of the world’s top bridge experts, available to play with our shareholders on Sunday afternoon. They plan to keep their eyes open — but Bob never sorts his cards, even when playing for a national championship.

波仙外面所搭的棚子内，Patrick Wolff 美国棋两度冠军，也会再度在会场蒙着眼与所有挑战者分六个一组分批对奕，此外两位世界级桥牌顶尖高手 Bob Hamman、Sharon Osberg 也会在周日下午与大家同乐，当然他们不会蒙眼，不过以 Bob 的习惯，他从来不整理牌组，就算是在参加全国桥牌大赛时，也是如此。

Gorat’s — my favorite steakhouse — will again be open exclusively for Berkshire shareholders on Sunday, May 1, and will be serving from 4 p.m. until 10 p.m. Please remember that to come to Gorat’s on that day, you must have a reservation. To make one, call 402-551-3733 on April 1 (but not before). If Sunday is sold out, try Gorat’s on one of the other evenings you will be in town. Enhance your reputation as an epicure by ordering, as I do, a rare T-bone with a double helping of hash browns.

我个人最爱的 Gorat’s 牛排馆，为了伯克希尔股东年会破例在 5 月 1 日周日开门营业，从下午 4 点开始营业，一直到晚上 10 点，请记得周日事先若没有订位的人请勿前往以免向隅，要预约请在 4 月 1 日以后打电话（402-551-3733），若订不到周日的位子，也可以试试其它晚上，记得跟我一样，老练一点地点丁骨牛排加上双份的牛肉丸。

We will again have a special reception from 4:00 to 5:30 on Saturday afternoon for shareholders who have come from outside of North America. Every year our meeting draws many people from around the globe, and Charlie and I want to be sure we personally greet those who have come so far. Last year we enjoyed meeting more than 400 of you including at least 100 from Australia. Any shareholder who comes from other than the U.S. or Canada will be given a special credential and instructions for attending this function.

周六下午 4 点到 5 点半，我们也会为来自北美以外地区的股东举行欢迎会，每年股东年会吸引了来自世界各地的人们参与，查理跟我希望能够亲自接待这些远道而来的股东，去年人数达到 400 位，其中至少有 100 位是来自澳洲，任何来自美国与加拿大地区以外的股东事先都会拿到参与这项仪式的证明与注意事项。

Charlie and I are lucky. We have jobs that we love and are helped every day in a myriad of ways by talented and cheerful associates. No wonder we tap-dance to work. But nothing is more fun for us than getting together with our shareholder-partners at Berkshire’s annual meeting. So join us on April 30th at the Qwest for our annual Woodstock for Capitalists.

查理跟我真是幸运，每天能够从事我们喜爱的工作，同时有这么多有干劲的同仁协助，也难怪我们每天都能够跳着踢踏舞上班，当然每年能够与股东伙伴们同乐更是一大乐事，所以再次欢迎大家到 Qwest 中心参加为资本家举办的年度伍德斯托克音乐节。

Warren E. Buffett

沃伦·巴菲特

Chairman of the Board

董事会主席

February 28, 2005

2005年2月28日

原文：Includes, in addition to National Indemnity, a variety of other exceptional insurance businesses, run by Rod Eldred, John Kizer, Tom Nerney and Don Towle.

肖良版：未译

译文（DeepL翻译）：除国家赔偿公司外，还包括罗德·埃尔德里德（Rod Eldred）、约翰·基泽尔（John Kizer）、汤姆·纳尼（Tom Nerney）和唐·托尔（Don Towle）经营的其他各种出色的保险业务。

All figures used in this report apply to Berkshire’s A shares, the successor to the only stock that the company had outstanding before 1996. The B shares have an economic interest equal to 1/30th that of the A. ↩ ↩²
By 孙萧萧 @20231011 ↩ ↩²

B
Coopinio投资智慧库

Explorer

2004 Letter to Berkshire Shareholders2004 年致股东的信

Berkshire’s Corporate Performance vs. the S&P 500

BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC.

Sector Results 各部门绩效

Regulated Utility Businesses 受管制的公用事业

Insurance 保险业务

Finance and Finance Products 金融和金融产品

Manufacturing, Service and Retailing Operations 制造业、服务业与零售业的运营

Investments 投资组合

Foreign Currencies 外汇投资

Miscellaneous 其它事项

The Annual Meeting 年度股东大会

Graph View

Table of Contents

BCoopinio投资智慧库

Explorer

2004 Letter to Berkshire Shareholders2004 年致股东的信

Berkshire’s Corporate Performance vs. the S&P 500

BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC.

Sector Results 各部门绩效

Regulated Utility Businesses 受管制的公用事业

Insurance 保险业务

Finance and Finance Products 金融和金融产品

Manufacturing, Service and Retailing Operations 制造业、服务业与零售业的运营

Investments 投资组合

Foreign Currencies 外汇投资

Miscellaneous 其它事项

The Annual Meeting 年度股东大会

Footnotes

Graph View

Table of Contents

B
Coopinio投资智慧库