原文信息:

  • 标题:1972 Letter to Berkshire Shareholders
  • 作者:Warren Buffett
  • 发表时间:1973-03-16
  • 链接:PDF
  • 中文翻译参考:芒格书院共读群友
  • 整理:Terrellchen
  • 校译:


To the Stockholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.:

伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司全体股东:

Operating earnings of Berkshire Hathaway during 1972 amounted to a highly satisfactory 19.8% of beginning shareholders’ equity. Significant improvement was recorded in all of our major lines of business, but the most dramatic gains were in insurance underwriting profit. Due to an unusual convergence of favorable factors — diminishing auto accident frequency, moderating accident severity, and an absence of major catastrophes — underwriting profit margins achieved a level far above averages of the past or expectations of the future.

1972 年伯克希尔的经营收益令人兴奋的达到了年初股东权益的 19.8%。我们所有的主要业务都取得了显著改善。但最大的利润贡献是我们的保险承保业务。由于有利因素的异常趋同——汽车事故频率降低、事故严重程度缓和以及没有重大灾难——承保利润率远高于过去对未来预期的平均水平。

While we anticipate a modest decrease in operating earnings during 1973, it seems clear that our diversification moves of recent years have established a significantly higher base of normal earning power. Your present management assumed policy control of the company in May, 1965. Eight years later, our 1972 operating earnings of $11,116,256 represent a return many‐fold higher than would have been produced had we continued to devote our resources entirely to the textile business. At the end of the 1964 fiscal year, shareholders’ equity totaled $22,138,753. Since that time, no additional equity capital has been introduced into the business, either through cash sale or through merger. On the contrary, some stock has been reacquired, reducing outstanding shares by 14%. The increase in book value per share from $19.46 at fiscal year‐end 1964 to $69.72 at 1972 year‐end amounts to about 16.5% compounded annually.

虽然我们预测 1973 年经营收益会略有降低,但是近年来我们的多元化的举措已经建立了一个明显更高的盈利基础。我们在 1965 年接管伯克希尔,假定我们继续将资金投入到纺织业务中,我们的利润将是非常低的。八年后 1972 年的经营收益为 11,116,256 美元,这比我们继续将资本完全投入纺织业务所产生的回报高出许多倍。 1964 年底,伯克希尔的股东权益总额为 22,138,753 美元。从那时起,我们没有把额外的资本投入纺织业务,无论是现金购买或者通过合并。相反,我们对股票进行了回购,减少了 14% 流通股。每股账面价值从 1964 年的 19.46 美元增加到 1972 年底的 69.72 美元,年复合增长率为 16.5%。

Our three major acquisitions of recent years have all worked out exceptionally well — from both the financial and human standpoints. In all three cases, the founders were major sellers and received significant proceeds in cash—and, in all three cases, the same individuals, Jack Ringwalt, Gene Abegg and Vic Raab, have continued to run the businesses with undiminished energy and imagination which have resulted in further improvement of the fine records previously established.

近年来,不论从财务方面还是人力方面,我们的三项主要收购表现的都非常的好。在这三个收购中,创始人是主要卖方,在将公司卖给我们时收到了现金,同时 Jack Ringwalt,Gene Abegg 和 Vic Raab 三个人继续不遗余力地经营着企业,热情和想象力丝毫没有减少,使公司的业务继续保持好的发展势头。

We will continue to search for logical extensions of our present operations, and also for new operations which will allow us to continue to employ our capital effectively.

我们将继续稳健拓展现有的主要业务,同时也开拓新业务,使我们的资本更有效率的运用。

Textile Operations 纺织业务

As predicted in last year’s annual report, the textile industry experienced a pickup in 1972. In recent years, Ken Chace and Ralph Rigby have developed an outstanding sales organization enjoying a growing reputation for service and reliability. Manufacturing capabilities have been restructured to complement our sales strengths.

正如去年年报所说的,我们的纺织业务 1972 年有了些起色。这几年,Ken Chace 和 Ralph Rigby 建立了一支出色的销售队伍,在服务和信任度上享有越来越高的声誉。我们对产品线进行了调整,使其可以与我们的销售相适应。

Helped by the industry recovery, we experienced some payoff from these efforts in 1972. Inventories were controlled, minimizing close‐out losses in addition to minimizing capital requirements; product mix was greatly improved. While the general level of profitability of the industry will always be the primary factor in determining the level of our textile earnings, we believe that our relative position within the industry has noticeably improved. The outlook for 1973 is good.

受惠于行业复苏,我们的努力在 1972 年获得了一些成绩。除了最大限度的减少资本需求,库存也得到了控制,还最大限度地减少了生产线的关停损失,产品结构也大大提高了。虽然行业的总体盈利水平将始终是决定我们纺织业务收入水平的主要因素,但是我们相信,我们在行业的相对竞争力亦得到了很大的提升。 1973 年的前景应该会比较好。

Insurance Underwriting 保险承保业务

Our exceptional underwriting profits during 1972 in the large traditional area of our insurance business at National Indemnity present a paradox. They served to swell substantially total corporate profits for 1972, but the factors which produced such profits induced exceptional amounts of new competition at what we believe to be a non‐compensatory level of rates. Over‐all, we probably would have retained better prospects for the next five years if profits had not risen so dramatically this year.

1972 年,国民保险公司在传统保险领域获得卓越的承保利润,这与现实经营环境貌似相冲突。 1972 年公司利润大增,但这样的利润导致产生大量的新竞争对手,我们认为这是一种非补偿性的利润水平。总之,如果今年利润没有这样大幅的增加,我们反而会预测未来 5 年发展前景良好。

Substantial new competition was forecast in our annual report for last year and we experienced in 1972 the decline in premium volume that we stated such competition implied. Our belief is that industry underwriting profit margins will narrow substantially in 1973 or 1974 and, in time, this may produce an environment in which our historical growth can be resumed. Unfortunately, there is a lag between deterioration of underwriting results and tempering of competition. During this period we expect to continue to have negative volume comparisons in our traditional operation. Our seasoned management, headed by Jack Ringwalt and Phil Liesche, will continue to underwrite to produce a profit, although not at the level of 1972, and base our rates on long‐term expectations rather than short‐term hopes. Although this approach has meant dips in volume from time to time in the past, it has produced excellent long‐term results.

我们在去年年度报告里已经预测了将会有大量新的竞争对手出现,依据是去年的保费量的下降。我们认为行业承保利润率在 1973-1974 年将会大幅收窄,但这反而可能迟早会产生新的竞争格局,使我们历史上的那种增长得以继续。不幸的是,承保业绩的恶化与竞争的缓和之间存在滞后,在这段时间,我们希望继续减少我们的传统业务保单数量。我们经验丰富的管理层(由 Jack Ringwalt 和 Phil Liesche 领导)将继续坚持承保盈利,虽然利润水平不会像 1972 年那样高,但我们的费率水平是基于长期而非短期的。虽然现在情况可能意味着保单量继续下滑,但长期来看我们的业绩会很好。

Also as predicted in last year’s report, our reinsurance division experienced many of the same competitive factors in 1972. A multitude of new organizations entered what has historically been a rather small field, and rates were often cut substantially, and we believe unsoundly, particularly in the catastrophe area. The past year turned out to be unusually free of catastrophes and our underwriting experience was good.

正如去年报告预测的那样,我们的再保险部门也同样在 1972 年经历了许多相似的竞争。大量新公司进入到这个原本就不大的市场,而且费率水平也出现了大幅下降,尤其是在可能发生巨大灾难的区域。由于 1972 年没有出现重大灾难,我们承保业务运转良好。

George Young has built a substantial and profitable reinsurance operation in just a few years. In the longer term we plan to be a very major factor in the reinsurance field, but an immediate expansion of volume is not sensible against a background of deteriorating rates. In our view, underwriting exposures are greater than ever. When the loss potential inherent in such exposures becomes an actuality, repricing will take place which should give us a chance to expand significantly.

George Young 在几年时间里就已经建立起一个规模可观且有利可图的的再保险业务。从长远来看,我们计划成为该领域的领头羊。但是在价格战费率不断恶化的背景下,冒然增加规模不是一个明智的做法。在我们看来,承保的风险比以往任何时候都大。如果潜在的损失变为现实,市场将进行重新定价,这将给我们一个大幅扩张的机会。

In the “home state” operation, our oldest and largest such company, Cornhusker Casualty Company, operating in Nebraska only, achieved good underwriting results. In the second full year, the home state marketing appeal has been proven with the attainment of volume on the order of one‐third of that achieved by “old line” giants who have operated in the state for many decades.

在住宅保险业务 (Home-State) 上,我们历史最悠久、规模最大的内布拉斯加州居民意外险公司 (Cornhusker Casualty) 取得了非常理想的业绩,该公司只在内布拉斯加州有业务。在第二年,该业务的市场竞争力就得到证明,承保量达到了在该州经营数十年的”老牌”巨头的三分之一左右。

Our two smaller companies, in Minnesota and Texas, had unsatisfactory loss ratios on very small volume. The home state managements understand that underwriting profitably is the yardstick of success and that operations can only be expanded significantly when it is clear that we are doing the right job in the underwriting area. Expense ratios at the new companies are also high, but that is to be expected when they are in the development stage.

我们在明尼苏达州和得克萨斯州的两家较小的公司发生了少量的承保亏损。该业务的管理层明白对我们业绩衡量的唯一标尺为承保的盈利能力,我们只有在我们的业务被证明是明智的情况下,才开始拓展我们的业务。新公司的营运费用较高,这符合发展初期的预期。

John Ringwalt has done an excellent job of launching this operation, and plans to expand into at least one additional state during 1973. While there is much work yet to be done, the home state operation appears to have major long‐range potential.

John Ringwalt 在新业务启动运营方面做的非常出色,并计划在 1973 年将业务至少扩展到另外一个州。现在还有很多的工作需要做。本土化保险业务的前景会相当的好。

Last year it was reported that we had acquired Home and Automobile Insurance Company of Chicago. We felt good about the acquisition at the time, and we feel even better now. Led by Vic Raab, this company continued its excellent record in 1972. During 1973 we expect to enter the Florida (Dade County) and California (Los Angeles) markets with the same sort of specialized urban auto coverage which Home and Auto has practiced so successfully in Cook County. Vic has the managerial capacity to run a much larger operation. Our expectation is that Home and Auto will expand significantly within a few years.

去年我们说了我们收购了位于芝加哥的家庭和汽车保险公司 (Home & Auto)。那时我们感觉良好,现在感觉更好。公司由 Vic Raab 领导, 1972 年业务仍然相当不错。我们计划明年进入佛罗里达州的戴德县 (Dade County) 和加州的洛杉矶 (Los Angeles) 市场,提供在库克县 (Cook County) 已经成功实践的相同类型的专业城市汽车保险。 Vic Raab 拥有管理大公司的才能。我们预期该业务将在未来几年大幅度扩张。

Insurance Investment Results 保险投资业务

We were most fortunate to experience dramatic gains in premium volume from 1969 to 1971 coincidental with virtually record‐high interest rates. Large amounts of investable funds were thus received at a time when they could be put to highly advantageous use. Most of these funds were placed in tax‐exempt bonds and our investment income, which has increased from 6,755,242 in 1972, is subject to a low effective tax rate.

我们非常幸运的经历了 1969 年到 1971 年保费收入的大幅增长,费率几乎创历史新高,我们因此而受惠。在投资市场非常有利的时候,收到大量可投资资金。大部分资金投资在了免税债券。我们的投资收益从 1969 年的 2,025,201 美元增加到 1972 年的 6,755,242 美元,但实际税率很低。

Our bond portfolio possesses unusually good call protection, and we will benefit for many years to come from the high average yield of the present portfolio. The lack of current premium growth, however, will moderate substantially the growth in investment income during the next several years.

我们的债券投资组合具有非常好的看涨期权保护,我们将从当前投资组合的高平均收益率中受益多年。然而,当前保费增长的乏力,将在未来几年内大幅减缓投资收益的增长。

Banking Operations 银行业

Our banking subsidiary, The Illinois Bank and Trust Co. of Rockford, maintained its position of industry leadership in profitability. After‐tax earnings of 2.2% on average deposits in 1972 are the more remarkable when evaluated against such moderating factors as: (1) a mix of 50% time deposits heavily weighted toward consumer savings instruments, all paying the maximum rates permitted by law; (2) an unvaryingly strong liquid position and avoidance of money‐market borrowings; (3) a loan policy which has produced a net charge‐off ratio in the last two years of about 5% of that of the average commercial bank. This record is a direct tribute to the leadership of Gene Abegg and Bob Kline who run a bank where the owners and the depositors can both eat well and sleep well.

我们的银行子公司(伊利诺斯州银行及信托公司),继续在盈利水平上保持行业领先地位,1972 年平均存款的税后收益为 2.2%,这在对比以下不利因素时更为显著: (1) 定期存款组合占消费者储蓄工具的比重 50%,并按法律允许的最高利率支付利息,(2) 保持了强劲的流动性头寸并避免了从货币市场借款,(3) 这两年贷款产生的坏账率水平只有一般商业银行平均值的 5%。这些好成绩都归功于 Gene Abegg 和 Bob Kline 的领导。在他们的领导下,股东和储户都可以吃的好睡的好。

During 1972, interest paid to depositors was double the amount paid in 1969. We have aggressively sought consumer time deposits, but have not pushed for large “money market” certificates of deposit although, during the past several years, they have generally been a less costly source of time funds.

1972 年我们向储户支付的利息是 1969 年的两倍。我们积极寻求客户定期存款,却没有追求大型货币市场存单,尽管过去几年这是一种成本较低的定期资金来源。

During the past year, loans to our customers expanded approximately 38%. This is considerably more than indicated by the enclosed balance sheet which includes $10.9 million in short‐term commercial paper in the 1971 loan total, but which has no such paper included at the end of 1972.

1972 年客户贷款增加了大约 38%,实际比资产负债表里所示的要多得多,因为该表在 1971 年的贷款总额中包括 1090 万美元的短期商业票据,但去年没有此类票据。

Our position as “Rockford’s Leading Bank” was enhanced during 1972. Present rate structures, a decrease in investable funds due to new Federal Reserve collection procedures, and a probable increase in already substantial non‐federal taxes make it unlikely that Illinois National will be able to increase its earnings during 1973.

1972 年,我们作为”罗克福德领先银行”的地位得到了加强。目前的利率结构、由于新的美联储税收程序而导致的可投资基金的减少,以及相当可观的非联邦税的可能增加,使得伊利诺伊州国民银行在 1973 年利润增长变得困难。

Financial 融资

On March 15, 1973, Berkshire Hathaway borrowed 9 million was used to repay our bank loan and the balance is being invested in insurance subsidiaries. Periodically, we expect that there will be opportunities to achieve significant expansion in our insurance business and we intend to have the financial resources available to maximize such opportunities.

1973 年 3 月 15 日,伯克希尔从 20 家机构借款 2000 万美元,利率为 8%。这批借款在 1993 年 3 月 1 日到期,本金从 1979 年 3 月 1 日开始偿还。其中 900 万被用来偿还我们的银行贷款,其余的将投资于我们的保险子公司。周期性地,我们预计将有机会实现我们的保险业务的重大扩张,我们加强公司资本金,最大限度的为这些机会的到来准备。

Our subsidiaries in banking and insurance have major fiduciary responsibilities to their customers. In these operations we maintain capital strength far above industry norms, but still achieve a good level of profitability on such capital. We will continue to adhere to the former objective and make every effort to continue to maintain the latter.

我们的银行和保险子公司对其客户负有重要的信托责任。 在这些业务中,我们保持了远高于行业标准的资本实力,而且保持了良好的盈利水平。 我们将继续坚持前者的目标,并尽一切努力继续保持后者。

Warren E. Buffett

Chairman of the Board

董事长

March 16, 1973

1973 年 3 月 16 日