原文信息：
- 标题：2024伯克希尔股东大会文字全记录
- 作者：Thomas Chua、RanRan
- 发表时间：2024-05-05
- 链接：
- 英文：Thomas Chua
- 整理：乐知小馆
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译者简介：RanRan 被誉为翻译巴芒质量最好的译者，翻译历年的伯克希尔股东大会讲话、巴菲特和芒格演讲等文本，文笔流畅，毫无翻译腔调，赢得了一片赞誉。他也是书院推出的《芒格之道》一书的译者。 01. 介绍各位董事 （现场播放了纪念查理·芒格的短片。）**
WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. Don’t wear out all your clapping on Charlie. I mean, we’ve got, in addition, well, we have, first of all, Greg Abel, a director, and Ajit Jain. Then, in the back of this first section…
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(Introduces the directors: Howard Buffet, Susan Buffett, Steve Burke, Ken Chenault, Chris Davis, Sue Decker, Charlotte Guyman, Tom Murphy Jr., Ron Olson, Wally Weitz, and Merrill Whitmer.)
台下就座的各位董事，在我念到您的名字时，请起立，介绍完所有董事之后，大家再坐下。按照姓名字母顺序，出席本次股东会的董事有：霍华德·巴菲特 (Howard Buffett)、苏茜·巴菲特 (Susie Buffett)、史蒂夫·伯克 (Steve Burke)、肯·切诺特 (Ken Chenault)、克里斯·戴维斯 (Chris Davis)、苏珊·德克尔 (Sue Decker)、夏洛特·盖曼 (Charlotte Guyman)、小汤姆·墨菲 (Tom Murphy Jr.)、罗恩·奥尔森 (Ron Olson)、沃利·韦茨 (Wally Weitz)、梅丽尔·威特默 (Meryl Witmer)。以上就是我们的全部董事。
02. 感谢股东大会的组织者
WARREN BUFFETT: Okay, there are two people I would like to thank, and then we’ll get on to a brief description of the results of the first quarter.
巴菲特：在介绍第一季度业绩之前，我要特别感谢两个人。
First of all, I’d like to thank Melissa Shapiro, who put this whole event together. You can’t imagine the work that goes into it.
首先，我要感谢梅利莎·夏皮罗 (Melissa Shapiro)，她是此次大会的组织者，她为筹办本次股东会付出了巨大的努力。
She just reported to me that we set a new record for See’s Candy. I think they brought along six tons, and they will sell out. And one thing I do want to mention, we have only one book at the bookstore of The Bookworm this year. Normally we have about 25, but we have Poor Charlie’s Almanack, fourth edition, and I think we sold about 2,400 of them yesterday. And that will be the only book next year.
梅利莎告诉我，我们的喜诗糖果销售额再创新高。今年，我们准备了 6 吨喜诗糖果，应该会销售一空。还有一件事要告诉大家。今年，在 The Bookworm 书店，我们的书架上只有一本书。往年，我们一般挑选 25 本书，供大家选购。今年，我们的书架上只摆放了第四版的《穷查理宝典》(Poor Charlie’s Almanac)。昨天，《穷查理宝典》卖出了 2400 本。今年只准备了这一本书，是为了纪念查理，明年我们将恢复正常。
We’ll go back to having our usual selection, but we thought we would just turn it over to Charlie this year. And then I would like to introduce one further person, and that’s the person who put that movie together. And you can’t imagine the amount of work it is because, for example, on those scenes that we’ve used from the past, if they involve Hollywood stars or various people, we needed to get permission all over again to show it because we told them originally we would only show it within the confines of our auditorium here. And, of course, it went out on CNBC. And you just can’t imagine how much effort.
另一个要感谢的人，他为我们制作了开场前播放的短片。大家可以看到，在本年的纪念短片中，我们选了很多往年短片中的镜头。在我们的短片中，有多位好莱坞明星出场，也涉及若干电视剧中的桥段。往年，短片仅限会场播放。今年，我们则通过 CNBC 进行直播。为此，我们必须重新获得版权许可，其中涉及大量的联络协调工作。
But also, the great cooperation we got from all those Desperate Housewives and Jamie Lee Curtis. And with the Desperate Housewives, we had to get Disney’s okay, and that was easy to get. But running down five Desperate Housewives, that one came in toward the end. But the job of putting this together has been handled by the same fellow that handles us. Been doing these for years and years and years and years.
And I just would appreciate it if you could just put the spotlight on Brad Underwood for just a minute.
几位参演《绝望主妇》的明星，还有杰米·李 (Jamie Lee)，为我们提供了大量帮助。涉及《绝望主妇》的桥段，我们需要获得迪士尼 (Disney) 的授权，这比较好办。我们还逐一联系了五位出演《绝望主妇》的女演员，分别获得了她们的许可。我要感谢的第二个人，他多年来一直为我们制作开场电影。请把追光灯对准布拉德·安德伍德 (Brad Underwood)，谢谢。
03. 伯克希尔的成就靠的是持之以恒的储蓄
WARREN BUFFETT: Okay. We put out some results for the first quarter this morning at 07:00 our time. And some few sharp eyed analysts and press people already picked up one or two items from it, which I’m sure we’ll get some questions on later. But if we could start out with slide number one, which should be showing now, you’ll see that in the first quarter. The way, and we talk about operating earnings at Berkshire, we’ve explained that many times, is why we think these figures that we give you are the most descriptive of what’s really going on in the business and take out the wild swings in the market that otherwise just, you know, and that was reporting big earnings one quarter and big losses another quarter.We pay no attention to those at Berkshire, but you will see that we had a better than average quarter.
我们和大家看的是伯克希尔的经营利润，没考虑股市涨跌的影响。总的来说，2024 年第一季度的业绩高于平均水平。
And Ajit Jain wants me to point out to everyone that you cannot take the insurance earnings of the first quarter and multiply by four. It just doesn’t work that way in insurance. And while we insure storms around the world, the major storms, for example, that would affect our earnings would be probably number one, would besomething that went along the, that came in at the wrong place from our standpoint, and that just kept going up the east coast.
阿吉特希望我给大家提个醒，今年一季度的保险业绩不错，但是我们不能把一季度的业绩乘以四，估算全年业绩。保险生意没这么稳。我们承保巨灾险。飓风是我们业绩的头号杀手。飓风总是在我们最不想看到的地方出现，造成巨大的破坏。
And that’s our that’s our number one risk as we evaluate things. But we’re in all kinds of risks. There can be an earthquake tomorrow, there can be an earthquake ten years from now, and we’re in that sort of business. But the first quarter does hit the, should be our best quarter, certainly shouldn’t be our worst quarter. The mostlikely quarter to be the worst quarter’s the third quarter. But anything can happen. Insurance. But fortunately, nothing much happened in insurance during the first quarter, so we had much improved earnings in insurance underwriting, and then our investment income was almost bound to well, it was almost certain to increase. And I said that in the annual report, because yields are so much higher than they were last year. And we have a lot of fixed short term investments that are very responsive to the changes in interest rates. So that figure is upsubstantially, and I can predict that that one will be up for the year. But we’ve got more money to invest as we’ll get to in a minute, and that’s fairly predictable. So that number will be up.
在保险业务中，评估飓风的风险是我们的一项重要工作。除了飓风，还有其它风险，例如，地震。一场地震，可能明天发生，也可能十年以后发生。伯克希尔也承接地震保险。一般来说，全年之中，保险生意一季度的业绩最好，三季度的业绩最差。在保险生意中，何时出险，谁都不知道。还好，今年一季度，保险生意风平浪静，承保利润同比大幅增长。
保险分部的投资收益增长，这再自然不过了。我在年报中说了，现在的利率比去年高很多。我们持有的大量固收类短期投资，对利率变化非常敏感。因此，我们一季度的投资收益大幅增长。预计保险分部的全年投资收益也将高于去年。我们用于投资的资金增加了，收益自然随之增长。稍后，我们再展开讲这个问题。所以说，投资收益将上升。
When you get into the railroad. The railroad earnings. We’re down modestly, but we should. Not immediately, but we should be earning somewhat more money than we are earning under present traffic conditions. Andthen traffic conditions can also hit the earnings, hit the potential earnings of the railroad. And if you want, every Wednesday, you can get car loadings from the previous week. And I’ll regard you as a little deranged if you do get them. But I get them every week. They’re available. And you’ll see that car loanings have been running for the industry, have been running down modestly, and these earnings were as is expected, but we should earn somewhat more money than that on the equivalent amount of car loadings.
再看铁路分部。铁路的利润略微下降。按照现在的铁路运输情况，我们赚取的利润应该稍微多一些。利润的改善不能一蹴而就，但确实需要改善。铁路分部的利润与运输情况相关。
每周三，美国铁路协会发布上一周的铁路运量数据。谁闲着没事会订阅这个数据呢？我订了，每周都会看。从铁路行业运量数据来看，运输量略微下降，我们铁路分部的利润也随之略微下降。即使当前的装载量保持不变，我们的利润水平也应该比现在高一些。
And in the energy company, we had better earnings, but our earnings were distorted. Well, they were affected by conditions that I wrote about in the annual report, and we’ll undoubtedly discuss more this morning. But off a low base of last year, they were up somewhat. And so you get down to the final figure, and 11.2 billion is quite an improvement from last year.
再说能源分部，能源分部的利润比去年高。如同我在年报中所说，我们的能源分部受到了影响，我们的利润低于正常水平。稍后，我们再深入讨论这个问题。能源分部，去年的基数低，今年略有增长。总体来看，我们今年第一季度的经营利润为 112 亿美元，远高于去年同期。
But we would expect our earnings should go up modestly from year to year, because, after all, we’re retaining, like, 37 billion last year of earnings. So if we put 37 billion more, and you left it with us, we should do somethingthat’s satisfactory. And the goal of Berkshire, economic goal, is to increase the operating earnings and decrease the shares outstanding. It’s that simple to describe. It’s not quite so simple pull off, necessarily. But that’s what we’re attempting to do.And if we’ll turn to slide two, please.
伯克希尔每年的利润增长是正常现象。毕竟，我们把每年的利润留在伯克希尔。去年，我们留存了 370 亿美元。各位股东把 370 亿美元的利润留在伯克希尔，我们可动用的资金就增加了 370 亿美元，我们今年的利润自然要比去年高，这才对得起股东。伯克希尔追求的经济指标可以概括为两点：第一，提升经营利润；第二，减少流通股份数。 说起来简单，做起来难。我们会继续努力。
请播放第二张幻灯片。
I’ve got the history, and I just picked the pre pandemic year of when we hit 24 billion, and then we fell off in the first year of the pandemic. And then, as you see, we’ve moved up from 27 to 30 to 37 billion. And interesting thing about these earnings is they’re after depreciation and amortization and taxes and all that sort of thing. So you can figure that, essentially, Berkshire has a little over $100 million perday, including weekends and holidays, coming in to deploy. And we’ve set out many times when we’re attempting to, we’re attempting to deploy that money, but we have that responsibility.
大家现在看到的是伯克希尔过去五年的经营利润。疫情之前的 2019 年，伯克希尔的经营利润将近 240 亿美元。疫情第一年，我们的经营利润下降。此后，我们一路上升，从 270 亿美元到 300 亿美元，再到 370 亿美元。这些数字是扣除了折旧摊销和所得税之后的净利润。从这些数字中可以看出，一年 365 天，包括周末和节假日在内，伯克希尔可以配置的资金，每天增加 1 亿多美元。我们和大家讲过很多次，我们争取把这些资金配置好，这是我们的职责所在。
请看下一张幻灯片。
And sometimes, if you’ll turn to the next page, well, you’ll see how that’s built up the shareholders equity so that Berkshire had March 31, 570 billion, and through retaining earnings. And we’ve been retaining earnings ever since we took control of Berkshire Hathaway, except one day, as I remember, I think it was maybe 1968, or 9 the directors declared a ten cent a share dividend, and I think I must have been in the restroom orsomething at the time.
随着留存收益的增加，截止 2024 年 3 月 31 日，伯克希尔的净资产来到了 5700 亿美元。自从我们收购伯克希尔·哈撒韦以来，我们一直留存收益。只有一次例外，忘了是 1968 年，还是 1969 年了，董事会宣布每股派息 10 美分。决定派息的时候，我肯定不在场，可能去洗手间了，要不怎么可能有这次例外。
So if you leave out that period of madness, we’ve been retaining. We’ve been saving your money, putting it to work, and sometimes we’ve done things that were big mistakes, but we never get close to fatal mistakes, and every now and then, we do something that really works. And as Charlie pointed out in the past, you know, it’s really, there’s probably been a half a dozen to a dozen over 57 or 58 or whatever it would be really important, big decisions, and there’s been nothing close to fatal. So that continues to be the guideline.
我们一直把利润留下来，我们把股东的钱存在公司，一直在存钱，一直在投资。在投资中，我们犯过比较严重的错误，但从来没犯过致命的错误。我们也抓住了一些好机会。查理以前讲过，我们做过的 57 笔、58 笔投资中，真正起到关键性、决定性作用的就那么五六笔。一方面是抓住难得的大机会，另一方面是坚决不犯致命错误。 我们将沿着这条路继续走下去。
And we have accumulated 571 billion. And I couldn’t help but look at who’s second. And JP Morgan had 327 billion at year end, and they’re up to 338, I believe, at the end of the quarter. But they pay significant dividends. They repurchase shares. They’ve got a business that earns better returns on equity, but they don’t pile it, and they shouldn’t. They don’t pile it back exactly like we have. And this does show what can be done, really,without any miracles, if you save money over time.
日积月累，我们的净资产已经达到了 5710 亿美元。按照资产负债表中的净资产，我们已经稳居全球第一。第二和我们的差距有多大呢？去年年末，摩根大通 (JPMorgan Chase) 的净资产为 3270 亿美元，一季度，增加到了 3380亿美元。与伯克希尔不同，摩根大通派息较高。摩根大通也回购股票。摩根大通的生意比较好，ROE 比伯克希尔高。摩根大通不像我们这样，把所有的利润都留下来。留或不留，各有各的道理，没有对错之分。伯克希尔能取得今时今日的成就，靠的不是什么奇迹，而是持之以恒的储蓄。
And we have a group of shareholders, we had a group of partners, originally, Charlie and I did, that wanted to save money and left their money with, like in that film you just saw. You saw Eddie and Dorothy Davis and the Davis family and the children and the grandchildren, periodically did some other things with the money, but they also basically left it with us.
今天伯克希尔汇聚的股东群体，最早源于一批合伙人，他们希望长期储蓄，希望把钱交给我们打理。在开场前影片中出现的戴维斯夫妇一家，他们就是我们最早的合伙人之一，他们在伯克希尔的投资一直传承到他们的子辈和孙辈。我们的合伙人、我们的股东，有时候，他们也需要动用资金，但基本上始终把钱留给我们管理。
And we were a savings vehicle and they were able to do, live very well, but they weren’t trying to live like the kings and queens of earlier capitalism and used to build the houses in New England and have a servant standing behind everybody eating and all that sort of thing. So we’ve had veryfew, what I would call, look at me type people that are attracted. There’s nothing wrong with it, but they just go someplace else. And they are spending sort of unbelievable sums after a while, by the standards of the past. And our people, nobody. We have nobody that’s a miser or a hoarder or anything like that in our group, they live very well. But the math of compounding and a long runway have done wonders. And we will talk a little later, right before lunch. We’ll give an illustration of that, of what can be done with that sort of philosophy.
我们的股东通过伯克希尔进行储蓄。在长期储蓄的同时，我们的股东过着富足的生活。他们不是那种有了钱就炫富的人，住进宫殿一般的房子，让佣人前簇后拥。我不是想指责那些“炫富”的人，说他们做的有什么不对。我只是想说，我们的股东与伯克希尔气质相符，基本没有炫富的。那些炫富的，和我们不是一路人。我们的很多股东，他们用几十年的时间储蓄，积累了大量财富。最后，他们会把一辈子的积蓄用出去。我们的股东不是吝啬鬼，也不是守财奴。我们储蓄，但我们也生活得很富足。是复利的威力，是长期储蓄的积累造就了巨额财富。在午休之前，我们将继续讲这个话题。我想通过一个具体的例子，告诉大家我们的股东拥有怎样的财富观。
So our cash and treasury bills were 182 billion at the quarter end. And I think it’s a fair assumption that they brought probably about 200 billion at the end of this quarter. We’d love to spend it, but we won’t spend it unless we think we’re doing something that has very little risk and can make us a lot of money.
言归正传，一季度末，我们的现金和短期国债为 1820 亿美元。二季度末，这个数字很可能接近 2000 亿美元。我们想把这些钱投出去，但必须有合适的机会才行。一个是风险必须非常低，另一个是能赚很多钱。
And our stock is at a level where it adds slightly to the value when we buy in shares. But we would. We would really buy it in a big way, except you can’t buy it in a big way because people don’t want to sell it in a big way, but under certain market conditions, we could deploy quite a bit of money in repurchases. And as you’ll see on the final slide, we have bought it in the last five years. We can’t buy them like a great many other companies because it just doesn’t trade that way. The volume isn’t the same because we have investors, and the investors, the people in this room, really, they don’t think about selling. They probably would hope. Many of you don’t even check the price daily or weekly. The people who check the price daily have not made the money that the people who have forgotten about it basically have over the years.
现在伯克希尔的股价水平，回购的话，并不能给股东创造什么价值。合适的话，我们愿意大笔回购。不是我们不愿意，而是我们买不到足够的量，没那么多人愿意卖。市场条件合适的话，我们会动用大笔资金回购。在最后一张幻灯片上，大家可以看到，在过去五年里，我们进行了回购。很多公司的回购力度比我们大多了。我们也愿意大力回购，只是伯克希尔的交易量没那么大。伯克希尔的股东大多是投资者，也就是像你们在座各位这样的人，你们不但不愿意卖，可能还想买呢。你们中的很多人，根本不会隔三差五地看股价。天天盯着股价的人，赚不了几个钱。心中没有股价的人，才是长期赚大钱的人。
And that’s sort of the story of Berkshire. We’ll try to increase operating earnings, and we will try to reduceshares when it makes sense to do so. And we will hope for an occasional big opportunity. And we’re quitesatisfied with the position we’re in.
So with that background, I think we’ll turn it over to Becky Quick, and we will alternate questions between Becky and those of you in the audience.
我讲完了。下面进入提问时间。贝琪·奎克 (Becky Quick) 和现场观众轮流提问。首先，有请贝琪。
(Becky Quick takes over for Q&A.)
04. Q&A（
上午场） 问题 1：我们看重股票背后的生意
BECKY QUICK: Thanks, Warren. Let’s start. Just given what you mentioned, there was some news that came out in the 10-Q this morning.
问题 1：谢谢，沃伦。如您所说，伯克希尔一季报发布之后，引起了广泛关注。
It shows that Berkshire sold another 115 million shares of Apple in this last quarter. That’s Berkshire’s largest holding. And I think in that vein, we’ll start with a question from Sherman Lamb. He is a 27-year-old Berkshire Hathaway Class B shareholder from Malaysia. And he asks, last year you mentioned Coca-Cola and American Express being Berkshire’s two long-duration partial ownership positions, and you spent some time talking about the virtues of both these wonderful businesses.And your recent shareholder letter, I noticed that you have excluded Apple from this group of businesses. Have you or your investment managers’ views of the economics of Apple’s business or its attractiveness as an investment changed since Berkshire first invested in 2016?
从一季报中可以看出，在第一季度，伯克希尔又卖出了 1.15 亿股苹果公司的股票。苹果是伯克希尔的第一大持仓。我选的第一个问题与此相关。提问者为 Sherman Lamb，他来自马来西亚，今年 27 岁，持有伯克希尔·哈撒韦 B 类股。他是这么问的：去年，您提到了伯克希尔长期持有可口可乐、美国运通。在今年的股东信中，您又谈到了这两家公司的生意多么好。我发现，您好像没谈到苹果公司。2016 年，伯克希尔开始投资苹果。请问苹果的生意发生变化了吗？是否不像以前那么值得投资了？
WARREN BUFFETT: No, I would… But we have sold shares, and I would say that at the end of the year, I would think it extremely likely that Apple is the largest common stock holding we have now. One interesting thing is that Charlie and I look at common stocks or marketable equities as businesses.
And so when we own a Dairy Queen or we own whatever it may be, we look at that as a business. And when we own Coca-Cola or American Express, we look at that as a business. Now, we can buy really wonderful companies in the market as businesses. We can’t buy all of them, I mean, all of their shares. We can’t buy 90% or 80% or anything like that. But when we look at Coca-Cola and American Express and Apple, we look at them as businesses.
DQ
冰淇淋没有上市，伯克希尔拥有 DQ 冰淇淋。在我们眼中，DQ 冰淇淋是一个生意。可口可乐、美国运通是上市公司，伯克希尔持有这两家公司的股票。我们看可口可乐、美国运通，看的也是它们的生意。从生意的眼光考虑，我们在股市中能买到一流的好公司。我们没办法把好公司的股份全部买下来，想买 80%、90% 都买不到。我们买了可口可乐、美国运通、苹果的股票。在我们眼中，我们买的是这些公司的生意。
Now, there are differences in taxes, factors, there’s a difference in managerial responsibility, a whole bunch of things. But in terms of deploying your money, we always look at every stock as a business, and we don’t… We have no way, no attempt is made to predict markets. We have no attempt made to pick stocks.
与直接拥有整个公司相比，通过买股票投资好生意，在税收、管理等方面存在很多差异。在进行资产配置的过程中，我们始终遵循买股票就是买公司的原则。我们不预测市场走势，也不猜测个股涨跌。
I went through many, many years doing the wrong thing. I got interested in stocks very early, and I was fascinated by them.I wasn’t wasting my time, because I was reading every book possible and everything else. But finally, I picked up a copy of The Intelligent Investor in Lincoln, and there were a few sentences in there that said, much more eloquently than I can say it, if you look at stocks as a business and treat the market as something that doesn’t tell you, isn’t there to instruct you, but it’s there to serve you, you’ll do a lot better over time than if you try to take charts and listen to people talk about moving averages and look at the pronouncements and all of that sort of thing. And so that made a lot of sense to me then, the way I’ve been allowed to deploy it. Charlie and I talked about this, of course, constantly.
开始时，我走了很多弯路。我还是一个小孩的时候，就对股票很着迷。我如饥似渴地把市面上所有关于股票的书读了个遍。直到有一天，在内布拉斯加大学林肯分校 (University of Nebraska-Lincoln) 读书的时候，我偶然翻开了《聪明的投资者》(The Intelligent Investor)，读到了其中的几句话，我瞬间就悟了。书里写的比我说的好多了，大概意思是这样的：用买公司的眼光买股票，不能听市场的，不能被市场牵着鼻子走，而要自己掌握主动权，将市场为我所用。看 K 线、看移动平均线、听消息都不是正道。读到了这段话，我终于知道了怎么做才是对的。
It’s changed over the years, the amount of capital we have has changed and all that. But the basic principle was laid out by Ben Graham in that book, which I picked up for a couple of dollars, and which basically said to me, “You’ve been wasting your time now, but maybe you can use what you’ve learned or been reading about and put it to better use.”
多年来，我们配置资金的方式发生了变化。主要是我们的资金量越来越大，查理和我一直在研究怎么才能更好地进行配置。基本的投资原则始终没有改变，本·格雷厄姆早就在《聪明的投资者》中阐述的很清楚了。我花了几块钱，买了《聪明的投资者》，这本书告诉我，我以前一直在走弯路。从那以后，秉承格雷厄姆的理念，我走上了投资正途。
And then Charlie came along and told me how to put it to even better use. And that’s sort of the story of why we own American Express, which is a wonderful business. We own Coca-Cola, which is a wonderful business, and we own Apple, which is an even better business.
后来，我遇到了查理。在他的启发下，基本的投资原则不变，但在具体应用方面，我达到了更高的境界。我认识到了买好生意的重要性。美国运通是好生意，伯克希尔将其收入囊中。可口可乐是好生意，伯克希尔将其收入囊中。苹果的生意比美国运通、可口可乐还要好，我们也将苹果收入囊中。没有极其特殊的情况，相信等到格雷格接班，伯克希尔将仍然持有苹果、美国运通和可口可乐。
And we will own, unless something really extraordinary happens, we will own Apple and American Express and Coca-Cola when Greg takes over this place. And it’s such a simple approach that it’s almost deceptive. Most things, if you keep working harder and harder at it, you learn a little more math or you learn a little more physics, but investments, you don’t really have to do that. You really have to have your mindset properly. So, we will end up, if something dramatically happens that really changes our capital allocation strategy, we will have Apple as our largest investment, but I don’t mind at all, under current conditions, building the cash position. I think when I look at the alternative of what’s available, the equity markets, and I look at the composition of what’s going on in the world, we find it quite attractive.
没有极其特殊的情况，相信等到格雷格接班，伯克希尔将仍然持有苹果、美国运通和可口可乐。我说的投资方法很简单，简单到说出来人们不相信。像数学了、物理了，可以一直往深了研究，越往深研究，探索到的新知识越多。投资则不然，投资没那么多新东西。做投资，关键在于思路要正。将来，真出现了什么重大突发事件，我们有可能改变资本配置策略。一切正常的话，苹果将一直是我们最大的投资。卖出一些苹果的股票，是因为我想增加现金储备。对比摆在我们面前的各种选择，考虑到股市的估值，考虑到世界局势，我认为现在增加现金储备对我们有利。
And one thing that may surprise you, but we… Almost everybody I know pays a lot more attention to not paying taxes, and I think they should. We don’t mind paying taxes at Berkshire, and we are paying a 21% federal rate on the gains we’re taking in Apple. And that rate was 35% not that long ago, and it’s been 52% in the past when I’ve been operating. And the government owns… The federal government owns a part of the earnings of the business we make. They don’t own the assets, but they own a percentage of the earnings, and they can change that percentage any year.
我想再谈一点我的想法，可能和大家想的不一样。我发现我周围几乎所有人都琢磨怎么能少交税，这没什么不对的。伯克希尔则不同，我们心甘情愿地纳税。这次出售苹果股票，我们缴纳了 21% 的联邦企业所得税。2018 年之前，联邦企业所得税税率为 35%。伯克希尔早期，企业所得税一度高达 52%。在我们经营企业赚取的利润中，有联邦政府的一份。虽然联邦政府不是我们的股东，但是我们每年赚取的利润，都要分给联邦政府一份。具体分多少，政府说了算。
And the percentage that they’ve decreed currently is 21%. And I would say, with the present fiscal policies, I think that something has to give, and I think that higher taxes are quite likely, and if the government wants to take a greater share of your income, or mine or Berkshire’s, they can do it. And they may decide that someday they don’t want the fiscal deficit to be this large, because that has some important consequences, and they may not want to decrease spending a lot, and they may decide they’ll take a larger percentage of what we earn, and we’ll pay it.
按照现行企业所得税税率，联邦政府分走 21%。依我之见，美国目前的财政政策无法持续，政府早晚要提高税收。政府必然要从你的收入中、我的收入中、伯克希尔的收入中多分走一些，政府有这个权力。将来什么时候，政府会发现，不能再让财政赤字这么高了，否则将导致严重后果。与此同时，政府又不愿大幅削减开支，那就很可能要求从我们赚取的利润中多分一些。政府让多交多少，我们就多交多少。
We always hope, at Berkshire, to pay substantial federal income taxes. We think it’s appropriate that a company, a country that’s been as generous to our owners… It’s been the place… I was lucky. Berkshire was lucky, was here. And if we… If we send in a check like we did last year, we sent in over $5 billion to the US federal government. And if 800 other companies had done the same thing, no other person in the United States would have had to pay a dime of federal taxes, whether income taxes, no Social Security taxes, no estate taxes. It’s open down the line now. That’s…
伯克希尔以多纳税为荣。美国是一块福地，它对我们的股东不薄。我能出生于美国是我的幸运。伯克希尔能诞生在美国是伯克希尔的幸运。去年，我们向联邦政府缴纳了 50 亿美元的税款。如果美国再有 800 家像伯克希尔这样的企业，那美国的所有人、所有公司都用不着交税了。无论是所得税、社保、遗产税，什么税都不用交了。
I would like to… I hope things develop well enough with Berkshire that we say we’re in the 800 club and maybe even move up a few notches. It doesn’t bother me in the least to write that check. I would really hope, with all America has done for all of you, it shouldn’t bother you that we do it. And if I’m doing it at 21% this year and we’re doing it at a higher percentage later on, I don’t think you’ll actually mind the fact that we sold a little Apple this year.
但愿伯克希尔基业长青，我们将来仍然是像现在一样的纳税大户，甚至再多交一些税。为国纳税，义不容辞。国家对你我不薄，我们依法纳税是应有之义。今年我卖了点苹果，交了 21% 的所得税。以后要是税率真涨了，大家回过头来想，可能就不怪我了。
Okay, let’s go to section one.
好，下面请第 1 区提问。
问题 2：伯克希尔的大笔投资基本会在美国进行
MATTHEW LAI: Hi, Mr. Buffett, this is Matthew Lai from China, Hong Kong. I’m running my listed company called FW, and we are so grateful to have learned from you, and you really inspire us. My question is, besides the electric car company, BYD, under what circumstances would you reinvest or reconsider investing in a Hong Kong or China company? Thank you.
**
问题 2：您好，巴菲特先生。我是来自中国香港的 Matthew Lai。感谢您向我们传授知识，给予我们指引。我的问题是这样的：您投资了新能源汽车公司比亚迪，请问在什么情况下，您会再次考虑投资香港的公司，投资中国的公司？谢谢。**
WARREN BUFFETT: Well, our primary investments will always be in the United States. We do think it… The companies we invest in the United States, American Express does business around the world. And no company hardly does business around the world like Coca-Cola. I mean, they are the preferred soft drink. You know, something like maybe 170 or 180 out of 200 countries. Those are rough approximations from a few years back, probably, but that degree of acceptance worldwide is, I think, almost unmatched.
巴菲特：我们的主要投资将始终在美国。我们的逻辑是这样的。我们投资的美国公司，例如，美国运通，它在全世界做生意。还有可口可乐，它的产品遍布全球的每个角落。人们爱喝可口可乐。大概几年之前，在全球 200 多个国家和地区中，可口可乐就已经覆盖了 170 个、180 个左右。我想不出来，还有哪家公司的产品在全球范围内如此受欢迎。
I can’t really think of any company that has it. American Express has a position in the credit card deal, which I think is extremely strong. And part of the reason for that is one of the directors we introduced a few minutes ago, Ken Chenault. But it has strengthened dramatically over the last 20 years for a lot of reasons. So we will…
The BYD investment was a… Well, we made the commitment in Japan, which I did five years ago, and that was just overwhelmingly, it was compelling. It was extraordinarily compelling. And we bought it as fast as we could, and we spent a year, and we got a few percent of our assets in five very big companies. But that’s the problem of being our size. But you won’t find us making a lot of investments outside the United States, although we’re participating through these other companies in the world economy.
具体说到比亚迪这笔投资……对了，五年前，我们投资了日本。那笔投资，机会非常好，特别有吸引力。我们赶紧进场扫货，花了一年时间，买入五家日本公司的股票，最后投入的资金只占我们投资组合的 1%、2% 而已。谁让我们规模这么大呢？通过我们投资的公司，伯克希尔可以分享全球经济发展的红利。但是，伯克希尔不会在美国以外大笔投资。
But I understand the United States’ rules, weaknesses, strengths, whatever it may be. I don’t have the same feeling for economies generally around the world. I don’t pick up on other cultures extremely well. And the lucky thing is, I don’t have to, because I don’t live in some tiny little country that just doesn’t have a big economy. I’m in an economy already that is, after starting out with half a percent of the world’s population, has ended up with well over 20% of the world’s output in an amazingly short period of time. So we will be American-oriented.I mean, if we do something really big, it’s extremely likely to be in the United States. I mean, if we do something really big, it’s extremely likely to be in the United States.
主要是我熟悉美国，我知道美国的法律法规，美国有它的优点，也有它的缺点，是什么，我很清楚。对于世界上其它国家和地区，我就不像对美国那么了解。别的国家有别的国家的文化，文化障碍，我真跨越不了。好在这并不影响我做投资。美国很大，经济体量足够大。美国的发展堪称奇迹。建国初期，美国人口只占全世界的 0.5%。如今，美国的生产总值占全世界的 20%。我们将以美国为中心做投资。我们的大笔投资基本上会在美国进行。
Charlie, in all those years, there are only two times he’s told me that this one is really… He would always go along with me and say, well, when I was suggesting something, he’d say, well, this is really not that great, but it’s probably the best you’ll come up with. So I’ll go along with the idea. But Charlie twice pounded the table with me and just said, you know, “Buy, buy, buy.” And BYD was one of them, and Costco was the other. And we bought a certain amount of Costco, and we bought quite a bit of BYD.
查理和我搭档几十年，只有两次，查理告诉我，绝对是好机会，一定要买。一般情况下，查理听我的。每次我向查理讲完我找到的机会，他一般这么说：“这机会不算特别好，但估计你也找不到更好的了，那就它吧。”只有两次，查理主动提出他找到的机会，他坚决看好，力主买入。其中一个是比亚迪，另一个是开市客 (Costco)。在查理的督促下，我们买了开市客，也买了比亚迪。开市客买的比较少，比亚迪买的多一些。
But looking back, he already was aggressive. But I should have been more aggressive in Costco. It wasn’t fatal that we weren’t. But he was right big time on both companies.
当时，查理主张大胆地买。开市客，我买少了。不能说买少了就造成了多大损失，但查理真是火眼金睛，这两家公司，他看得非常准。
I’m aware of what goes on in most markets, but I think it’s unlikely that we’ll make any large commitments in almost any country you can name, although we don’t rule it out entirely. And I feel extremely good about our Japanese position, and we’ll have that… I don’t know how many years. Greg will be sitting with that at some point, and we couldn’t be happier with that. But you really have to… We really have a different outlook in looking at… Well, we look at your money, which we couldn’t bear to lose, and we feel that we’re far less likely to make any truly major mistakes in the United States than in many other countries.
其实，大多数国家的股市如何，我一直关注着呢。但是，我们不太可能在美国以外的任何国家做大笔投资。也不是完全排除这个可能性，但基本上不太可能。伯克希尔投资了日本的几家公司，这笔投资我们将长期持有。将来，等格雷格接班了，我们将仍然持有对日本的投资，我们对这笔投资很满意。伯克希尔不在美国以外大笔投资，主要是因为我们肩负着股东的重托。我们为股东管理资金，我们始终想着千万不能把股东的钱亏了。在美国投资，我们不太可能犯大错。去其它国家和地区投资，那就不敢保证了。
Okay, Becky.
好的，贝琪，请提问。
问题 3：在私营公用事业方面，伯克希尔可能是最佳候选者
Becky: this next question comes from Stanley Holmes, who is a Berkshire shareholder from Salt Lake City. He asks: In his 2024 annual letter to shareholders, Chairman Buffett noted the severe earnings disappointment experienced at Berkshire Hathaway Energy last year and expressed concern about earnings and asset values in the utility industry. Recognizing that investors are worried about climate-change-related expenses and that new uncertainties cloud the regulatory environment, the chairman suggested that some jurisdictions may adopt the public power model. There are now signs that policymakers in Utah, citing state sovereignty, may already be poised to move in that direction.
**
问题 3：这个问题来自盐湖城的一位股东，Stanley Holmes。他的问题是：在 2024 年的股东信中，您指出，伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源 (Berkshire Hathaway Energy) 去年的业绩令人失望，您对公用事业行业的盈利能力和资产价值表示担忧。您谈到了，受气候变化影响，公用事业公司不得不承受额外开支，而监管政策仍不明朗。您认为有些地区倾向于由政府经营公用事业公司。目前，犹他州颁布了几项政策，有转为政府运营发展的趋势。**
The Utah legislature recently mandated the state’s right to serve as the sole purchaser of energy from an in-state power plant and, under some circumstances, purchase the power plant before it can be retired. The state utility regulator will be legally bound to prioritize public purchases of power and facilities that could include assets owned by Berkshire Hathaway Energy’s specific utility, Rocky Mountain Power. Will Berkshire, through BHE, continue to invest resources in jurisdictions where corporate assets may be subject to confiscatory state policies and actions? And how is Berkshire Energy working with officials in Utah to minimize potential corporate losses if and when state control is asserted over its electrical utility sector?
新政策规定，犹他州的发电厂所生产的电力只能由州政府独家购买，而且犹他州政府有权在发电厂关停之前，对发电厂进行收购。依据新的立法，犹他州政府有权优先收购电力和电厂，其中包括伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源下属的落基山电力公司 (Rocky Mountain Power)。考虑到将来可能被政府收购，伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源还会继续向公用事业公司投资吗？伯克希尔是否与犹他州政府进行了协商，电力公司真被收购的话，能否避免损失？
WARREN BUFFETT: I will let Greg join me in answering this, but I would say our feeling is that Utah is actually very likely to treat us fairly. Whether the action is in granting appropriate rates that give us the return we expect, generally expected in terms of our own properties, or if they decide, for some reason, to go to public power, I think they would compensate us fairly. In the 1930s, George Norris, a senator from Nebraska, just turned Nebraska into a public power state. And our experience in Iowa would indicate that free enterprise has its role and that we can run a privately owned utility company that will be more efficient for society than, at least in most states, people can do with public power.
**
巴菲特：一会儿，请格雷格回答这个问题。我先说一下我的想法。我认为，犹他州会公平地对待我们。我们在犹他州进行了投资，犹他州会允许我们赚取合理的收益。即使犹他州决定转由政府经营公用事业公司，也会公平合理地补偿我们。1930 年代，在内布拉斯加州参议员乔治·诺里斯 (George Norris) 的推动下，内布拉斯加州建立了由政府运营的电力体系。在爱荷华州，伯克希尔经营公用事业公司。我们的表现证明，与大多数州政府运营的电力公司相比，作为私营资本，我们能提供更高的效率。无论是政府运营，还是私人运营，公用事业公司都需要巨大的投资。政府如果选择私营模式，放眼美国，伯克希尔公司可能是最合适的候选者。**
But what has happened is that there are going to be enormous amounts of money, enormous amounts of money spent on power. And if you’re going to do it with private owners, there’s nobody better situated than Berkshire to satisfy a large portion of the needs of the country. And we will do it at a rate of return that is not, you know, it’s not designed to make us rich or anything like that. It’s a sensible rate of return, but we won’t do it if we think we’re not going to get any return. It would be kind of crazy. And we’ve seen actions in a few states where some of the costs associated with climate change, they’re not being regarded as costs the utility shouldn’t incur. Well, believe me, if it was publicly owned, they would have incurred it too.
我们愿意投资公用事业公司，但是我们要求获得合理的收益率。我们不是说狮子大开口，要赚多少多少钱，我们只是要求合理的收益率。如果根本赚不到钱，那我们不做。在几个州，气候变化导致公用事业公司产生了额外开支，但这部分开支并没有得到认可。我相信，即使是政府经营公用事业公司，照样会产生此类开支。
But we’ll do what society tells us, and we have the money and the knowledge to participate in something that is enormously important for the country. But we’re not going to throw good money after bad in the field. I don’t worry about… my understanding is, and Greg can elaborate on this now immediately, but I don’t regard Utah as being unfriendly to the idea of utilities being treated fairly. Charlie?
公用事业关系到国计民生。在经营公用事业公司方面，伯克希尔资金雄厚、经验丰富。我们愿意为社会效力。但是，如果不赚钱，甚至亏损，那我们不可能继续投资。其实，我不太担心，一会就请格雷格详细讲讲他的看法。我相信犹他州政府对伯克希尔没有恶意，我相信犹他州政府会公平合理地对待公用事业公司。查理，你说呢？
WARREN BUFFETT: Charlie, I’m so used to that. I had actually checked myself a couple of times already, but I’ll slip again.
我怎么叫查理了呢，说顺嘴了。（笑声）其实，已经好几次我要张口叫查理，都忍住了。口误，一时半会可能还改不过来。
GREG ABEL: That’s a great honor. Yeah. When we touched on it initially in your letter relative to the challenges in the industry, and then you’ve just alluded to the significant investment that has to go into the energy industry, the utility sector, for many years to come. And I think if we start there, if I think of our different utilities, it will definitely come to Utah and PacificCorp.
格雷格：完全可以理解，沃伦。沃伦，在股东信中，您讲到了公用事业公司面临的挑战。您刚才也说了，公用事业公司未来需要巨额投资。我想从这两方面出发，分析一下伯克希尔旗下的公用事业公司，特别是在犹他州经营的太平洋电力公司。
But if you look at the underlying demand that is building in each of those utilities and the amount of dollars that are going to have to go in to meet that demand, it’s absolutely incredible. So when you raised it in your letter, it’s a really important issue. We have to have a regulatory compact that works between, if it’s a public utility, it has to work in concert with the state, Utah being an example, or it ultimately becomes potentially a public power. So just to set the frame a little bit, if I think of Iowa, which you mentioned, and the underlying… we’ve made substantial investments there, it’s been very consistent with both the public policy that the state and legislators wanted, and they enacted very specific laws to encourage that. But that utility is more than 100 years old right now.
可以预见，伯克希尔旗下的公用事业公司，在不久的将来面临着电力需求的显著上升。为了满足急剧上升的电力需求，我们需要投入大量资金。正如您在股东信中所说，我们经营公用事业公司要投入大量资金。政府必须制定一套清晰明了的政策，让公用事业公司在政策的指导下为公众服务。犹他州也不例外，公用事业公司必须与政府的政策步调一致。以爱荷华州为例，伯克希尔在爱荷华州的投资规模很大，我们完全按照爱荷华州政府的政策和法律去投资，爱荷华州政府制定了清晰具体的法律法规，我们在法律框架内积极投资。爱荷华州的公用事业公司已经有 100 多年的历史了。
And if we look at the demand that’s in place for MidAmerican (Iowa utility) over the next, say, into the mid-2030s associated with AI and the data centers, that demand doubles in that short period of time, and it took 100 years plus to get where we are today, and now it’s going to double. And that will require substantial amounts of capital from MidAmerican and its shareholders. And how that will function is if we have a proper regulatory compact in place, which you’ve highlighted, if we then go to, say, Nevada, where we own two utilities there and cover the lion’s share in Nevada, if you go over a similar timeframe and you look at the underlying demand in that utility and say, go into the later 2030s, it triples the underlying demand and billions and billions of dollars have to be put in.
伯克希尔旗下的美国中部能源公司 (MidAmerican Energy) 在爱荷华州经营。随着 AI 的兴起、数据中心的增加，预计十年之后，爱荷华州的电力需求将翻倍。试想，用了 100 多年的时间走到今天，然后，在短短十年之内，将发电量翻倍。这需要美国中部能源公司的股东投入大量资金。这么大体量的投资，我们怎么能放心地去做？主要就是政府的政策要明确，给我们清晰的指引。我们再看内华达州，伯克希尔在内华达州经营两家公用事业公司，占据绝大部分市场份额。内华达州的电力需求上升速度更快，十年以后，预计发电量要达到现在的三倍，同样需要巨额投资。
Our rate base will literally go from, it’s not a modest level now, but you’re talking probably an incremental six to 10 billion at least of rate base going into that type of entity, which requires, again, alignment with the state and their policies and a proper recovery of our underlying both capital and a return on capital. So when we come to the wildfires, that’s been a substantial challenge because it’s the first time there’s been a lot of discussion around one of our utilities. One experienced significant losses associated with the wildfires. What portion of those costs will be recovered? And that’s really the dialogue we’re in. And does that properly work? When I think of the wildfires, there have been many claims, and a recent additional claim last week for $30 billion.
伯克希尔能源分部的费率基数 (rate base) 已经很大了。为了应对电力需求的上升，我们可能需要再投入 60 亿美元到 100 亿美元的资金。要投入这么多资金，政府必须给予我们政策支持，保证我们能实现资本的保值和合理的收益。电力公司面临山火受害者索赔，已有先例。这次伯克希尔旗下的太平洋电力公司因山火导致亏损，引起了广泛关注。对于山火造成的损失，要我们承担多少？我们正在和相关方协商。让我们承担的部分是否合理，现在还未可知。关于山火索赔，现在要求我们赔偿的案子已经有很多起了。上周，我们刚收到通知，有一起追加诉讼，要求我们赔偿 300 亿美元，这可不是小数目。
We don’t take that lightly, but it is an incremental claim to an already existing lawsuit that’s in place. And when I think of Pacifi Corp, we’re in a place where, first and foremost, all the litigation will be challenged because the basis for it, at least we believe, is in places unfounded, and we will continue to challenge it. And it will take many years to be resolved, as Warren highlighted in the letter. But if you think of PacifiCorp and the litigation there, number one, how we think and operate those assets has to change. Change because we have worked with the states across all our states for many years with the fundamental goal to be to keep the power on. And our teams and our employees worked incredibly hard to keep the power on, day in, day out, through storms.
首先，对于太平洋电力公司收到的所有起诉，我们将积极抗辩，坚决驳斥所有不合理的索赔。这个诉讼过程将持续很多年。其次，鉴于太平洋电力公司被告上法庭，遭受大量索赔，我们有必要改变我们的经营理念和经营方法。多年来，在各地政府的指导和监督下，我们始终把保证电力的持续供应作为重中之重。我们的团队、我们的员工，夜以继日的工作，克服飓风等恶劣天气的困难，始终致力于为千家万户持续稳定地供电。
Unfortunately, through the 2020 fires, the instincts were not to turn off the power. The instinct was to keep the power on, to keep hospitals, fire stations responding. It’s not in their mind, or at least culturally, it wasn’t in our minds to de-energize. So the first thing we had to do was step back and say, “We’ve got to fundamentally change the culture, not just at PacifiCorp, but across all our utilities.”
2020 年的山火发生时，我们第一时间想到的不是断电，而是保持电力持续供应，确保医院、消防站正常工作。我们一直以保供为使命，当时就没想到要断电。从今以后，我们必须做出改变，不光是在太平洋电力公司，而是我们的所有公用事业公司。
The first thing we have to recognize is that there are now going to be situations where we prioritize de-energizing the assets, and that’s completely different than we’ve operated those assets, as I’ve highlighted, for 100-plus years. So we start with the culture. We had to change that. The second thing is we’ve now changed our operating systems so that we can turn off the power very quickly. If there’s a fire that’s increasing, approaching, we will turn off our systems now, and the minute the conditions are safe again, we’ll re-energize it. But we’ve had to do that. And then the third thing is continuing to invest in a way that allows us to try to minimize the risk of fire.
现在，我们必须明白，在某些情况下，我们应该优先考虑断电。诚然，这是一种很大的转变，毕竟 100 多年来，我们始终以保供为最高目标。首先，从文化改起，不改不行。其次，在具体落实方面，我们已经改变了我们的运营机制，现在可以很快地切断电力供应。山火来袭，我们将关闭电力输送。等到安全了，再恢复供电。我们别无选择。第三，在防范山火风险方面，我们将加大投资。
But when you get back to Utah and PacifiCorp, the challenge we do have is within PacifiCorp, as we go through both litigation and through continuing to operate that entity, it generates a certain amount of capital and profits that will remain in that entity and be reinvested back into that business.
再说回到犹他州以及太平洋电力公司，我们的太平洋电力公司陷入了困局。在诉讼缠身的同时，我们继续经营太平洋电力公司，现在赚到的利润全部用于再投资。
But fundamentally, as we go forward, we need both legislative and regulatory reform across the PacifiCorp states if we’re going to deploy incremental capital, make incremental contributions into that business. As Warren said, we don’t want to throw good capital after bad capital, so we’ll be very disciplined there. But the reality is there are opportunities to both solve the legislative and regulatory solutions. And the best example we actually have, and I think it’s the gold standard across the country, is Utah.
今后，我们是否追加投资，继续为公用事业做贡献，关键取决于各州政府在立法和监管方面能否做出一些改变。正如沃伦所说，不赚钱，甚至亏钱的话，我们不可能继续投资。我们将仔细权衡其中的利弊。实际上，无论在立法方面，还是监管方面，我们都能看到光明的因素。特别是在犹他州，犹他州的一些做法值得其它州借鉴。
So, as Warren touched on, it’s a state we’re happy we’re investing in. It is part of PacifiCorp, so there’s a certain amount of balance there as to how we do it. But in the last legislative session that existed, Utah actually passed a bill that does a couple of very important things.
如沃伦所说，只要公平合理，我们非常乐意在犹他州投资。太平洋电力公司的业务范围包括犹他州。犹他州的经营环境有利有弊，需要我们综合考虑。三月份，犹他州议会通过了一项法案，其中有几项规定令人鼓舞。
One, it caps non-economic damages on wildfire claims. So, if you go back to the wildfires we have in Oregon and the claims you’re hearing filed for, there’s economic damages associated with them, and those harms should receive the economic damages associated with that. But unfortunately, and even though there’s legislature and case law in Oregon that says wildfire non-economic damages should not be awarded, there are very substantial non-economic damages being awarded there. Utah took a very proactive position to say, “We will cap those non-economic damages,” and it creates an environment… Again, it’s back to that: Is there an environment where you want to invest in? Yes. And then incrementally, they’ve created a very substantial fund. It’s literally called the Wildfire Fund for fires in Utah that will help facilitate both liquidity and the ability to resolve the situation.
第一，该法案规定了“非经济损失”赔偿的上限。在 2020 年俄勒冈州山火引发的索赔中，有些原告遭受了实际的“经济损失”，要求得到经济补偿，这有合理之处。还有一些原告，对“非经济损失”提出索赔。俄勒冈州的法律明确规定，山火造成的“非经济损失”不予赔偿。然而，俄勒冈州的法院仍然判决公用事业公司赔偿大量“非经济损失”。诉讼仍在进行之中，犹他州颁布了法案，限制“非经济损失”的赔偿金额，这是一种积极的态度，定了一个很好的调子。
So Utah, we believe, including the legislation, that a lot of other things came out of it, is the actual gold standard as we go forward. So, very important issue for Berkshire Hathaway Energy, but at the same time, it is a PacifiCorp issue. The risk of regulatory compacts not being respected is a much broader one that we will always evaluate, and be careful how we deploy our capital. But both PacifiCorp will manage through it. And I see other very good and significant opportunities in PacifiCorp.
说到底，还是要看当地的营商环境。犹他州的营商环境可以，并不排斥私营公用事业公司。另外，犹他州还提出了，建立山火专项基金，专门用于赔偿山火造成的损失。犹他州的做法让我们眼前一亮，值得其它州借鉴学习。伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源，具体而言，太平洋电力公司，都受到政策的影响。我们将密切关注政策动向，并审慎做出投资。相信太平洋电力公司能渡过难关。伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源、太平洋电力公司，既面临挑战，也有巨大的机遇。
Warren Buffett: I mean, in Berkshire Hathaway Energy, the return on equity investment that’s been promulgated and been achieved over the years has been, particularly in recent years, well below the return on equity that has been achieved by American industry generally. And so whether you earn x or x plus a half a percent or x minus a half a percent, that differs by state, and some states are more attractive than others. But whether you earn x or go broke is not an equation that works. And, you know, we won’t put our shareholders’ money… They didn’t give it to us to lose it all, and they might like it if it’s better when it’s plus a half a percent than minus a half a percent. But the electric utility industry will never be as good as, I mean, just remotely as good as, you know, the kind of businesses we own in other arenas. I mean, you look at the return on tangible equity at Coca-Cola or American Express or, to really top it off, Apple. It’s just, it’s, you know, it’s just a whole different game. But in utilities, the trade has been, the compact has been that you get a modest return.
巴菲特：近些年来，公用事业公司的净资产收益率远低于美国的其它行业。公用事业公司的净资产收益率是一个比较稳定的数字，有些州略高一些，有些州略低一些。赚取比较稳定的收益，我们能接受。让我们破产，那就不合理了。我们投资的是股东的钱，我们不能拿股东的钱打水漂。收益率在比较合理的范围内，略高一些，略低一些，我们都能接受。我们很清楚，公用事业公司的收益率与我们拥有的一些其它行业的公司没法比。拿净资产收益率来衡量，和可口可乐没法比，和美国运通没法比，和苹果更没法比了。公用事业这个行业决定了它的净资产收益率高不了。净资产收益率不高，但是比较稳，政府保证公用事业公司可以获得稳定的收益。
And climate change comes along, and it causes way more fires. That’s just the cost of doing business. And it doesn’t mean that we can’t do things to mitigate fires in the future. And you can make different policies on when you turn off the lights, but somebody’s going to do, somebody’s going to put up many, many hundreds of billions, maybe in the trillions, and climate change enters into that, and it can be done through public power or it can be done through private enterprise to quite a degree. And we would be certainly good for 100 billion or more, but we’re not going to throw good money after bad.
现在出现了一个变数，受气候变化影响，山火频发。山火造成的损失应当计为公用事业公司的成本。我们可以采取措施减少山火造成的损失。我们可以改变经营方式，该断电的时候就断电。这些都不成问题。关键在于，电力需求将增加，几百亿美元、上千亿美元的投资是必须的，这笔钱总要有人拿出来。应对气候变化的成本也要计算在内。政府投资可以，私营企业投资也行。让伯克希尔投资 1000 亿美元，我们也拿得出来。但不赚钱的话，我们是不会投的。
WARREN BUFFETT: Okay, let’s do station four.
请第 4 区提问。
问题 4：AI 是一把双刃剑
AUDIENCE MEMBER: Hi, Joe, visiting from San Francisco. How do you think about the role of technological advances, especially generative AI, on more traditional industries? Thank you.
**
问题 4：您好，我叫 Joe，来自旧金山。请问科技的发展，特别是生成式 AI 的诞生，将给传统行业带来怎样的影响？谢谢。**
WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah, I made a mistake in calling on four, but I’ll get back to two later on. I don’t know anything about AI, but I do have… that doesn’t mean I deny its existence or importance or anything of the sort. And last year I said that we let a genie out of the bottle when we, when we developed nuclear weapons, and that genie has been doing some terrible things lately. And the power of that genie is what, you know, scares the hell out of me. And then I don’t know any way to get the genie back in the bottle.
巴菲特：这次该第 2 区，我说错了，叫了第 4 区，一会再请第 2 区提问。
我知道 AI 现在很火，也知道 AI 的意义重大，但是我无法判断 AI 对未来的影响。去年，我讲了，二战时，美国人发明原子弹，把妖怪从瓶子里放了出来。幸好，过去几十年，这个妖怪没带来灾难。原子弹的破坏力让我惊恐忧虑。生米已经煮成熟饭，我真不知道如何消除原子弹的风险。我认为，AI 与原子弹有类似之处。
And AI is somewhat similar. It’s partway out of the bottle, and it’s enormously important, and it’s going to be [used] by somebody. We may wish we’d never seen that genie, or it may do wonderful things, and I’m certainly not the person that can evaluate that, and I probably wouldn’t have been the person that could have evaluated it during World War II, whether we [should have] tested a 20,000-ton bomb that we felt was absolutely necessary for the United States, and would actually save lives in the long run. But where we also had Edward Teller [J. Robert] Oppenheimer, I think it was, who was on a parallel with Einstein in terms of saying, you may, with this test, ignite the atmosphere in such a way that civilization doesn’t continue. And we decided to let the genie out of the bottle, and it accomplished the immediate objective. But whether, whether it’s going to change the future of society, we will find out later.
现在 AI 已经冒出头来了，必将产生重大的影响，早晚有人能发明出威力强大的 AI。将来，我们可能追悔莫及，也可能从 AI 的发展中受益。到底会怎样，我没能力判断。二战时，美国有必要研制 2 万吨 TNT 当量的原子弹吗？原子弹的问世，对人类的子孙后代有益吗？让我做这个决定的话，我不知道该怎么选择。在曼哈顿计划中，物理学家奥本海默[^1]（J. Robert Oppenheimer）发挥的作用不亚于爱因斯坦。在论证过程中，他说，原子弹爆炸的过程可能引爆大气中的氮，将人类文明完全摧毁。最终，美国决定把妖怪从瓶子中放出来，眼前的问题得到了解决，未来如何，没人知道。
Now, AI, I had one experience that does make me a little nervous, and I’ll just explain it. That very, very recently, fairly recently, I saw an image in front of my eyes on the screen, and it was me, and it was my voice. And [I was] wearing the kind of clothes I wear, and my wife or my daughter wouldn’t have been able to detect any difference. And it was delivering a message that [in] no way came from me. So it… When you think of the potential for scamming people, if you can reproduce images that I can’t even tell [aren’t me and say], “I need money, you know, it’s your daughter, I’ve just had a car crash. I need $50,000 wired.” I mean, scamming has always been part of the American scene, but this would make me, if I was interested in investing in scamming, [think] it’s going to be the growth industry of all time, and it’s enabled in a way… Obviously, AI has potential for good things, too, but I don’t know how you… Based on the one I saw recently, I practically would [have] send money to myself over some crazy [scheme].
关于 AI，我遇到过这样一件事，让我对 AI 更担忧了。前不久，在我面前的屏幕上，我看到了我自己，长得和我一样，声音和我一样，穿的衣服也和我的一样。我的妻子和女儿都看不出来屏幕中的人和我本人有什么区别。屏幕中的巴菲特说的话，根本不是我说的。AI 很可能成为电信诈骗的工具。它生成的视频让人真假难辨。比如说，有人给我发过来一段视频说，我是你女儿，刚出了车祸，需要 5 万美元，赶快打给我。在美国，电信诈骗一直相当活跃。我看有了 AI 的加持，电信诈骗行业倒是可能成为一个高成长的行业。AI 也有好的一面。我对 AI 不了解。就拿前不久我看到的那个视频来说，遇到类似的诈骗，我可能真会把钱汇到国外去。
So I don’t have any advice on how the world handles it because I don’t think we know how to handle what we did with the nuclear genie. But I do think, as someone who doesn’t understand a damn thing about it, that it has enormous potential for good, [and] enormous potential for harm. And I just don’t know how that plays out.
原子弹的难题，还没答案，AI 的难题，我更不知道如何解决。我对 AI 一无所知。我知道有利有弊，但我不知道未来如何演化。
I’d like to mention to Becky that Ajit will not be participating in the afternoon session, so if you could focus on any, if there are insurance questions you want to ask, that’d be a good one?
贝琪，提醒你一下，阿吉特只参加上午场。有关于保险的问题，可以现在就问。
问题 5：盖可保险的核心优势在于成本极低
BECKY QUICK: Yeah. This next question is for both Warren and Ajit. It’s from Ben Noll, who’s a Minneapolis shareholder who’s been a shareholder since 1995. And he says, in an interview this past year, Todd Combs said that in [his] first meeting [with] you in 2010, he told you GEICO is better at marketing and branding, Progressive is a data company, and data is going to win in the long run. But it appears you did not prioritize data analytics at GEICO until a decade later, when you made Todd CEO. As business units like GEICO age and need new strategic direction, I wonder if Berkshire’s hands-off management approach is a source of vulnerability. Will you please review your thinking on changes made at GEICO and explain how Berkshire is structured to react if the Berkshire CEO sees that a business unit is strategically off track? And Ajit, I hope you will continue to update us on yours and Todd’s progress at remedying the data analytics shortcomings at GEICO.
**
问题 5：好。这个问题请沃伦和阿吉特回答。提问者是 Ben Noll，来自明尼阿波里斯，1995 年的伯克希尔股东。问题是这样的：在去年的一次采访中，托德·库姆斯表示，2010 年刚加入伯克希尔时，他对您说过，盖可保险 (GEICO)以营销和品牌见长，而前进保险 (Progressive) 在数据分析方面更胜一筹，从长期来看，数据占优者将从竞争中胜出。然而，过了十年，您才在盖可保险推动数据分析，并任命托德负责此项工作。像盖可保险这样的公司，经过几十年的发展，可能有需要转型的时候，而伯克希尔一直采取放手的管理方式，这样的话，是否容易延误转型的时机？请问您后来怎么发现的盖可保险需要转型？如果旗下的子公司需要转型，伯克希尔的首席执行官能及时发现吗？另外，请阿吉特为我们讲讲，盖可在数据分析方面的短板弥补的如何了。**
WARREN BUFFETT: Ajit, would you like to?
巴菲特：阿吉特，你先回答啊？
AJIT JAIN: As Warren has pointed out in the past, one of the drawbacks that GEICO is faced with, it hasn’t been doing as good a job as matching rate with risk and segmenting and pricing product based on the risk characteristics. This has been a disadvantage at GEICO for a few years now. We are trying to still play catch up. Technology is something that is, unfortunately, a bottleneck. But there again, we are making progress. And equally importantly, we have hired people who are much better than what they inherited in terms of data analytics and pricing and slicing data. So, yes, I recognize we are still behind. We’re taking steps to bridge the gap, and hopefully by the, certainly by the end of ‘25, we should be able to be along with the best of players when it comes to data analytics, whether it’s pricing, whether it’s claims, or any other factor that drives the economics of the insurance business.
阿吉特：好的。沃伦以前讲过，在匹配费率和风险方面，在风险分级和产品定价方面，盖可保险没有竞争对手做得好。这个问题存在好几年了，我们一直在努力追赶。我们知道，我们在科技的应用方面存在不足，我们也清楚地看到了自己的进步。我们聘请了擅长数据分析和风险定价的人才，提升了我们在数据处理方面的能力。确实，我们仍然落后于竞争对手，但我们已经采取了实际行动缩小差距。预计到 2025 年末，我们将与竞争对手并驾齐驱，在数据分析方面跻身行业一流，在定价、赔偿等影响保险生意的方方面面实现提升。
WARREN BUFFETT: I would add, equating rate with risk obviously is important in every line of insurance business. I mean, that’s what you’re involved with, is deciding whether a given rate offers us the chance or the probability that we will make a little [bit] of money on it, and that sometimes we’re only risking losing a little and sometimes we’re risking losing huge amounts. But GEICO and Progressive has done a better job [at] that recently. But our fundamental advantage at GEICO, of course, is that we have lower costs than virtually anybody. And that cost advantage has been dramatic. We’ve driven our underwriting expense ratio below 10%, and there’s just very, very, very few companies that can compete with us.
**
巴菲特：我补充几句。在保险生意中，无论什么险种，评估风险与费率都至关重要。这是保险生意的核心。我们做保险生意，就是要分析费率是否合适，概率是否站在我们一边，承担了风险，能否赚取一些利润。有的保单，亏损的风险很小；有的保单，亏损的风险极大。就盖可保险而言，我们的竞争对手前进保险暂时领先。盖可保险的核心优势在于，我们在整个行业中成本最低。我们的成本优势无人能及。经过长期努力，我们已经把承保费用率 (underwriting expense ratio) 压到了 10% 以下。全行业中，能做到我们这个水平的，寥寥无几。**
So it isn’t, it’s not in the least a survival question, and it isn’t even exactly a profitability thing. But, you know, we would rather have x percent of the market than a half of x percent. But we roughly, I think in the month of March, we, we were just, we didn’t lose policyholders, and we got 16 million or whatever it is, of them, and we’ve got the lowest cost operations. So it’s not a threat. It’s not remotely a threat to survival, it’s not a threat to even profitability. But on the other hand, we would like to be growing with something that is the best model around in the insurance business of delivering at a low cost.
我们在数据分析上需要加强，但这个问题没那么严重。数据分析方面的欠缺，根本不至于影响盖可的生存，甚至都不怎么影响盖可的利润。当然了，我们一直在努力争取增加市场份额。我们的保单持有人数没有减少。截止三月份，我们拥有 1600 万保单持有人。盖可保险的经营成本全行业最低。问题没那么严重，盖可保险活得很好，利润水平也很好。盖可保险拥有保险行业的最佳商业模式，它的成本最低，我们将继续发挥盖可保险的优势，把盖可做大做强。
And we now have a recognition that we didn’t have back when Leo Goodwin started in 1936.But the same principle that worked then is that if you can offer somebody a good product, cheaper than the other guy, and everybody has to buy it, and it’s a big business you know, it’s very attractive to be in, and GEICO is a very attractive business and has got its lowest cost thing, and it does have to do a better job of matching rate to risk.
1936 年，利奥·古德温 (Leo Goodwin) 创建盖可保险的时候，它还只是一家名不见经传的小公司。但是，从创立的第一天起，盖可保险就确立了优秀的商业模式，并且一直持续到现在。简单说，车险是每个人必须买的，只要你提供的产品足够好，而且比别家便宜，大家就会买你的。另外，车险是一个庞大的市场，其中蕴藏着巨大的商机。盖可保险拥有良好的商业模式，它的优势在于成本最低。在匹配风险和费率方面，我们确实需要改进。
But our low costs have masked the fact that for a while that we could do without progressing as much as we should have in the matching of right to risk. And now Todd has been working intensively at that, and he’s made a lot of progress, but there’s still work to be done. But in the meantime, we’re not going to shrink, and we should make better underwriting profits than most companies in the auto insurance business.
但是，盖可保险通过低成本积聚了巨大的优势，即使在匹配风险和费率方面略有短板，也并不影响我们的发展，而且我们有充足的时间去弥补不足。目前，托德还在做这方面的工作，他投入了大量精力，取得了明显的成果。与此同时，盖可保险并没有停下发展的脚步。在车险行业中，就承保利润而言，盖可保险理应位列翘楚。
Okay, I’m going to back up and go to. I think I left station two out of it earlier. So do we have somebody there?
好的，刚才落了第 2 区，现在请第 2 区提问。
问题 6：信任身边人，但投资要有自己的主见
QUESTIONER: Yeah. Good morning. My name is Sebastian Sartre. I’m from Munich, Germany. Berkshire is a very respected company in Germany. And my question is, who are your most trusted advisors today? Is it Ted and Todd? Is it Greg and Ajit? Is it your wife, your children? And what do you value about them? Thank you.
**
问题 6：您好。我叫 Sebastian Sartre，来自德国慕尼黑。在德国，伯克希尔是一家令人尊重的公司。我想问您一下，现在您最信任的人是谁？是泰德和托德吗？是格雷格和阿吉特吗？还是您的妻子，或者您的子女？您信任的人为何能得到您的信任？谢谢。**
WARREN BUFFETT: Well, it depends whether they’re advising me on money or on other things. I trust my children and my wife totally, but that doesn’t mean I ask them what stocks to buy. In terms of managing money, there wasn’t anybody better in the world to talk to for many, many decades than Charlie. And that doesn’t mean I didn’t talk to other people. But if I didn’t think I could do it myself, I wouldn’t have done it. So to some extent, I talked to myself on investments, and I think my children have gotten a whole lot wiser over the years. And so I listened to them on a lot of things. I’ll listen to my daughter on who to vote for locally, because she knows a lot more about that than I do. And I’ll listen to my wife on a lot of things and I won’t get into details. So it is important.
巴菲特：那得看是在什么方面，是在投资方面，还是生活方面。我百分百信任我的子女和妻子，但是我不会和他们讨论买哪只股票。在投资方面，我和查理聊了几十年。我也和别人谈投资，但与查理谈的最多，我们之间最有共鸣。与别人交流探讨只是一方面，一笔投资，我自己没主见的话，我肯定不会做。可以这么说，在投资上，我自己和自己谈。我的子女，他们随着年纪增长，越来越成熟稳重。在很多事上，我听他们的。例如，在奥马哈本地的选举中该选谁，我听我女儿的，她比我更了解候选人的情况。在很多事上，我听我妻子的。具体是哪些事，我就不说了。（笑声）
If you don’t live a life where you surround yourself and limit yourself to people you trust, it won’t be much fun. I mean, I literally have been in the position ever since I was in my twenties of being able to have people I trusted around me. And I’ve made mistakes occasionally, but they filter out over time. You learn. And when I found Charlie, for example, in all kinds of matters, not just investment, I knew I’d have somebody that, well, I’ll put it this way. You can think about this, Charlie. In all the years we worked together, not only never once lied to me, ever but he didn’t even shape things so that he told half lies or quarter lies to sort of stack the deck in the direction he wanted to go. He absolutely considered, total, of utmost importance that he never lied. Now, that occasionally got him in trouble at dinner parties or something. If he said to the woman, I really prefer the way you used to do your hair, the way that somebody over across the room does.
人活着，要让自己的身边都是自己信任的人，只和自己信任的人打交道，这才能过得好。 我很早就明白了这个道理。从我二十多岁起，我身边一直都是我信任的人。偶尔也有看走眼的时候，不值得信任的人，我慢慢就把他们忘掉了。吃一堑，长一智。刚认识查理，我就看出来了他值得我信任，不只是在投资上，而是方方面面。我和查理合作这么多年，他从没说过谎，他甚至不屑于为了自己得利，而隐瞒或扭曲一丝一毫的事实。查理从不说谎，是因为他极其看重诚实这种品质。查理太诚实了，也有给自己带来麻烦的时候。例如，在宴会上，他对邻座的女士说，你今天的发型没以前的好看，没对面的那位女士的发型好看。
But in terms of having a partner, I simply cannot think of a conversation I ever had with Charlie that in the least he misled me or shaped it his way or anything of the sort. So when you get that in your life, you know, you cherish those people and you sort of forget about the rest.
作为一个合伙人，查理真是无可挑剔。我和查理交往这么多年，他从来没有为一己之私而说假话的时候。总之，遇到值得信任的人，要珍惜；遇到不值得信任的人，就远离。
Okay.
好的，贝琪，下个问题。
问题 7：提高保单价格以应对全球气候变化
BECKY QUICK: Again, this question is for Ajit comes from Meher Barucha. Climate change seems to be impacting the insurance industry heavily, with major players pulling out of markets like California because of wildfire and flooding risks combined with payouts increasing. How does Mr Jain see this risk expanding to other regions, and how has the thesis on insurance investments changed because of it?
**
问题 7：这个问题请教阿吉特。提问者是 Meher Barucha。气候变化对保险行业的影响巨大。山火频发、洪水泛滥，赔偿金额增加，很多大型保险公司甚至退出了加州等地。请问阿吉特先生，保险公司是否会从更多的州退出？在气候变化的大背景下，保险行业的投资价值是否大不如前？**
AJIT JAIN: Climate change. Climate risk is certainly a factor that has come into focus in a very, very big way more recently. Now, the one thing that mitigates the problem for us, especially in some of the reinsurance operations we are in, is our contractual liabilities are limited to a year in most cases. So as a result of which, at the end of a year, we get the opportunity to reprice, including the decision to get out of the business altogether if we don’t like the pricing in the business. But the fact that we are making bets that tie us down to one year at a time certainly makes it possible for us to stay in the business longer term than we might have otherwise. Because of climate change, clearly, prices need to go up. It is difficult to be very scientific about how much the prices need to go up. They need to go up a lot. And we keep increasing prices and hope we stay ahead of the curve. But that doesn’t happen in all cases.
阿吉特：近年来，在保险行业，气候变化、气候风险确实引发了广泛关注。我们受的影响比较小，特别是我们的再保险业务，因为我们承保的大多数合同，我们只签一年期限的。一年之后，保单期限到了，我们可以重新定价。价格不合适的话，可以拒绝续签。每次只签一年期限的保单，我们这才能把这个生意做得长一些，要不真做不下去。气候变化加剧，保单价格必然要提上来。具体提多少，很难说出一个准确的数字，但肯定要大幅度提高。我们一直在涨价，希望通过提价来覆盖日益严重的风险。然而，有时候我们仍然会亏损。
The regulators don’t make it any easier by tying our feet to the ground and making it difficult for us to withdraw from certain territories or to make dramatic changes in the pricing of certain products, as a result of which a number of insurance carriers, including ourselves, have decided to, to not write business in certain states. I think the regulators are getting a little more realistic about the, and they are waking up to the fact that the insurance carriers need to make some kind of a return, a decent return for us to keep deploying our capital.
监管机构对我们要求很严：有些地区，我们想退出，不让退；有些产品，我们想提价，不让提。很多保险公司，包括我们在内，已经决定不在某些州接受新业务。在我看来，监管机构逐渐认清了现实。他们意识到了，保险公司投入资金，理应获得公允合理的收益。
It’s a constant battle back and forth. It’s been against the capital providers these last few years, but I think we are coming back into balance. If you look at the results that have been recently announced by the insurance carriers, everyone’s now making record profits. Obviously that will not last, but certainly for the next several months, I think the insurance industry, in spite of climate change, in spite of increased risk of fires and flooding, it’s going to be an okay place to be in.
监管机构与保险公司之间始终在拉锯博弈。前几年，监管机构处于上风。最近，保险公司扳回一城。从最新披露的年报来看，保险公司的业绩普遍创出新高。气候变化加剧、山火频发、洪水泛滥，保险行业的利润不可能一直这么高，这个势头再保持几个月，应该不成问题。
WARREN BUFFETT: Climate change increases risks and in the end it makes our business bigger over time. But not if we, if we misprice them, we’ll also go broke. But we do it one year at a time, overwhelmingly. And I would say this, I would rather have Ajit assessing us than any thousand underwriters or insurance managers in the world.
巴菲特：气候变化导致风险增加，也让我们的保险业务越做越大。关键在于我们把保单价格估算准了，估不准，不但做不大，还会破产。另外，我们提供的大多数保单，只签一年期限。让阿吉特估算保单价格，我最放心。1000 个精算师或者 1000 个高管加起来，也顶不上一个阿吉特。
I mean, the factors aren’t, you know, we’ll take Atlantic hurricanes, which would be probably our biggest risk. There’s no question that you can measure the temperature of the water in the Atlantic and you know, what warm water does to hurricanes. But you don’t know necessarily whether that’s good or bad because it may cause them to turn faster, you know, and it may, it may change the path as well as the intensity and frequency of losses. But we’ll write it one year at a time and we’ll have Ajit underwriting it and, you know, we don’t have to tell you what’s going to happen fast five years from now or ten years from now.
来自大西洋的飓风给我们造成的损失最大，我们就以大西洋飓风为例。我们可以测量大西洋海水的温度，研究海水温度上升与飓风之间的关系。问题在于，很难得出什么有用的结论。海水温度上升，飓风的风速、路径、强度、频率都有可能发生变化。总之，我们只签一年期限的保单，由阿吉特来评估风险。五年之后、十年之后会怎样，我不需要做出判断。
And people who don’t have sort of analytical insurance minds that comment on this subject really don’t expand our knowledge.
We get a lot of letters from people that I’m sure have good IQs, but they don’t really know, they don’t understand the insurance business and they’re not wrong, I don’t think, in my mind about climate change. But if there was no risk, there’d be no insurance business. And we’re in the business of evaluating it and we do it one year at a time. And there’s some exceptions where you can’t do it, where your decisions extend for a long time in the future. We try to avoid those. But again, you don’t need a thousand people analyzing water currents. I think you need one very, very, very smart guy. And we’ve got him. Okay?
很多人纷纷发表他们对气候变化的见解，但是他们不懂保险生意的思维方式，他们讲的东西对我们没什么用。我们每年收到很多关于气候变化的信，写信的人智商肯定很高，他们对气候变化的看法未必不对，但是他们不懂保险生意。我根本不去研究气候变化。没有风险，就没有保险生意。 保险生意是评估风险的生意，我们评估气候变化带来的风险，每次只签一年。有的风险，我们无法评估，因为需要判断在未来很长的时间里会发生什么。这种情况，我们不做。总之，用不着大费周章地研究洋流温度。有一个擅长评估风险的人，就足够了。 在伯克希尔，我们有阿吉特坐镇。
Ajit Jain: Yeah. The only thing I’d add is that climate change, much like inflation done right, can be a friend of the risk bearer. And it has been for us.
WARREN BUFFETT: If you look at GEICO, it had 175,000 policies roughly in 1950, and it was getting roughly $40 a car. So that was 7 million of volume. You know, now we have, we’re getting over $2,000. Well, all the advances in technology and everything like that, if we had been wedded to some formula, what we did with $40, we’d have had a terrible business. But in effect, by making the cars much safer, they’ve also made it much more expensive to repair. And a whole bunch of things have happened, including inflation. So now we have a $40 billion business from something that was 7 million back when I called on it. So if we’d operated in a non inflationary world, GEICO would not be a $40 billion company. Okay, we’re now finally coordinated towards station three I believe.
巴菲特：没错。以盖可保险为例，1950 年，盖可有 175,000 份保单，每份车险的价格为 40 美元，保费收入规模为 700 万美元。现在，每份车险的价格涨到了 2,000 多美元。科技在进步，社会在发展，如果我们的保单没法提价，只能停留在 40 美元，那么我们的生意肯定做不下去。汽车更安全了，事故少了，但汽车也更复杂了，修起来更贵了。在通货膨胀等各方面因素的综合影响之下，我们有能力提高保单价格。从我最初接触盖可保险到现在，它的保费规模从区区 700 万美元增长到 400 亿美元。没有通货膨胀，盖可保险也不会有现在 400 亿美元的规模。
Okay, we’re now finally coordinated towards station three I believe.
好的，现在恢复正常提问顺序，该第 3 区了。
问题 8：如果机会合适，伯克希尔愿意在加拿大做大笔投资
QUESTIONER: Hello. Hey, everyone. I warren. I’m Liam. I’m 27, from Newmark, Ontario, Canada.
**
问题 8：大家好。沃伦，您好。我叫 Liam，今年 27 岁，来自加拿大安大略省 Newmark。**
I got invested in Berkshire, thanks to my dad, who brought me down to this meeting. I’m so excited to be here. Most 27 year olds had idols who are rappers, but instead, my idols are Warren, Charlie, who will miss forever, and also your cousin Jimmy, who unfortunately had to go this year, too. It’s been a tough year as a Canadian. Similar with Greg, I always wonder about our canadian economy and what you think about the canadian economy. We got some beat down bank stocks right now, and I don’t know what your opinions are on these.
在我父亲的带领下，我投资了伯克希尔。今天，我是和我父亲一起来的。参加此次股东大会，我感到很兴奋。对于大多数 27 岁的年轻人来说，他们崇拜说唱歌手。我不一样，我追的星是沃伦、查理。去年真是多事之秋，查理离开了我们，您的表弟吉米·巴菲特也走了。我和格雷格一样，也是加拿大人。我对加拿大的经济比较关心，我想知道您对加拿大经济的看法。现在有几家加拿大银行的股价很低，不知道您是否感兴趣。
And I also wonder at, in their nineties, if the rumors are true and you’re still able to eat McDonald’s. I like fast food myself, but I always wonder at 93, he’s still able to eat those and enjoy the Coca Cola. Thanks, Warren.
另外，您已经 90 多岁了，我听说您还吃麦当劳呢，这是真的吗？我也喜欢吃麦当劳。您 93 的高龄，还能吃麦当劳、喝可口可乐，我很佩服。我的问题讲完了。谢谢，沃伦。
WARREN BUFFETT: Okay, well, we’ve got a Canadian here, so we’ll let him answer the first part.
巴菲特：格雷格是加拿大人，第一个问题，一会儿请格雷格回答。
And if you watch me, you’ll see what I like to eat. Go to it, Greg.
至于我吃什么、喝什么，你看我前面放的这是什么[喜诗花生糖]，你就知道了。（笑声）格雷格，你回答吧。
GREG ABEL: Okay. Yeah. Well, we are fortunate to have a number of operations up in Canada. It goes across many of our operating entities. And then, as Warren touched on, all the businesses that we have, a piece of that we’re invested in are up in Canada. So the presence is significant where we’re always looking at making incremental investments there, because it’s an environment we’re very comfortable with. Warren touched on understanding the US environment, business environment, and I would put Canada equally in that bucket that we understand it and would be comfortable. And I would say the economy moves very closely to the US.
格雷格：好的。伯克希尔旗下的很多子公司在加拿大开展业务。另外，如沃伦所说，我们的很多生意遍布全球，其中包括加拿大。伯克希尔已经在加拿大有不少投资，我们也一直在寻找继续投资加拿大的机会。加拿大的营商环境，我们很放心。刚才沃伦讲了，我们非常熟悉美国、熟悉美国的营商环境。在这方面，加拿大与美国类似，我们也熟悉加拿大、熟悉加拿大的营商环境。就经济发展而言，加拿大的经济基本与美国同步。
So the results we’re seeing out of our various businesses that report both the US and canadian operations aren’t drastically different. And there’s a few that we’re on the energy side. For example, we make very substantial investments up there in Alberta. But again, it’s very consistent with how that economy is growing, and I would see it being very consistent with what we see here. Warren, anything to.
伯克希尔的一些子公司，在美国和加拿大都有业务，从按地区划分的经营数据来看，差异不是很大。以能源分部为例，我们在阿尔伯塔省 (Alberta) 投入了大量资金建设风电项目。我们在加拿大的投资，基本与加拿大的经济发展同步，基本与美国的业务发展同步。沃伦，您有补充的吗？
WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah, no, obviously there aren’t as many big companies up there as there are in the United States. But when we get. I got one from Canada just the other day that I sent over to Greg, too. When we see anything that’s suggesting an idea that’s of a size that would interstere and meets other requirements, we don’t have any hesitancy about political. Putting big money in Canada.
巴菲特：加拿大的经济体量没有美国这么大，加拿大的大公司比较少。有合适的机会，我们愿意在加拿大投资。前几天，我还看了一家加拿大的公司，也让格雷格看了。只要规模足够大，我们感兴趣，而且符合我们的投资条件，我们可以毫不犹豫地在加拿大做出大笔投资。
And there are things we actually can do fairly well that where Canada could benefit from Berkshire’s participation. We did it some years ago, not that many years ago, but there was a financial institution up there. They had a problem and they did, as I remember, 30 plus various other people that were kicking it around. And meanwhile, the place was getting close to the edge for not a fundamental problem. And Ted Weschler from our office went up there.
伯克希尔可以发挥所长，为加拿大的发展做出贡献。几年前，有一家加拿大的公司陷入了困境。我记得，30 多个相关方谈来谈去，犹豫不决。这家公司遇到了难题，被逼到了破产的边缘，但它的基本面良好。我们派泰德·韦施勒 (Ted Weschler) 去走了一趟。
I heard about it on a Monday or something. Ted Wesler went up there and we offered a solution in a couple of days to something that was getting close to the brink. So we do not feel uncomfortable in any way, shape or form putting our money into Canada. In fact, we’re actually looking at one thing now. But, you know, they still have to meet our standards in terms of what we get for our money.
大概是星期一，我听说了这家公司遇到问题。泰德·韦施勒去了一趟，只用了两三天时间，我们就拿出了解决方案，把这家濒临破产的公司救了回来。在加拿大投资，我们没有丝毫顾虑。刚才也说了，我们现在正在研究一家加拿大的公司。只要满足我们的条件，我们能获得公平合理的收益，我们愿意投资。
But they don’t have a, they don’t have a mental, we don’t have any mental blocks about that country. And of course, there’s a lot of countries we don’t understand at all. So Canada, it’s terrific. When you’ve got a major economy, not the size of the US, but a major economy that you absolutely give them, you feel confident about operating there.
很多国家，我们真不了解。加拿大则不然，对于加拿大，我们不存在文化障碍。加拿大的经济体量不如美国，但也是一个很大的经济体，我们在加拿大投资很放心。
Okay, Becky.
好的，贝琪。
问题 9：伯克希尔有阿吉特坐镇，足矣
BECKY QUICK: Warren, you just said that you’d rather have a jeet running risk assessment at the insurance operations than any other thousand insurance adjusters in the world.
问题 9：沃伦，您刚才讲了，1000 个精算师或者 1000 个高管加起来，也顶不上一个阿吉特。
WARREN BUFFETT: So I’d like to follow up with a question that came in from Mark Blackley in Tulsa, Oklahoma. He said, warren, for years you have spoken about the incredible impact Ajit has had on Berkshire. Often joked, if you and Ajit are in a sinking boat and we can only save one of you, swim to Ajit. While we often discuss plans for the next CEO of Berkshire, little is mentioned on who will one day replace Ajit. How should we think about the future of the Berkshire insurance operations, given how challenging it may be to find another Ajit?
俄克拉荷马州塔尔萨的 Mark Blackley 提了一个相关的问题。他问道：巴菲特先生，多年来，您一直表示，阿吉特对伯克希尔居功至伟。您开玩笑说，如果您和阿吉特同时落水，只能救上一个人来，一定要救阿吉特。伯克希尔的下一任首席执行官是谁，大家问过很多次了，但是谁来接阿吉特的班，却很少有人提及。像阿吉特这样的人才寥若晨星，伯克希尔的保险业务未来将何去何从？关于这个问题，我也想请阿吉特亲自回答一下。
WARREN BUFFETT: And I’d like to hear Ajit’s thoughts on this as well. Well, I would say we won’t find another Ajit, but fortunately, he’s a good bit younger than I am, so I hope you have to worry a little bit about me first before I start working about Ajit.
巴菲特：可以肯定地告诉大家，我们找不到第二个阿吉特。好在阿吉特比我年轻多了，我还健在呢，大家还用不着那么担心阿吉特。
We won’t find another Ajit, but we have an operation that he has created and that at least part of it, there are certain parts of it that are almost impossible for competitors to imitate. And if I was in their shoes, I wouldn’t try and imitate them. And so we’ve institutionalized some of our advantages, but Ajit is. Well, his presence allowed us to do it and he did it.
我们找不到第二个阿吉特了，但是阿吉特为我们打造了强大的保险业务。如今，在某些方面，我们的保险业务甚至令竞争对手望而生畏。我们的保险业务已经建立了独特的优势，竞争对手根本无法复制。阿吉特已经把他对保险生意的独特领悟注入了伯克希尔，形成了一套固定的机制体制。在领导伯克希尔保险业务的过程中，阿吉特很注重建立和完善制度。现在，阿吉特仍然在领导伯克希尔的保险业务，而且制度也建好了。
But now we’ve created a structure that didn’t exist when he came in 1986. Nothing close to it existed with us or with anybody else. And insurance is the most important business at Berkshire. Marketable securities are important, but they’re not in the class exactly as our insurance business.
1986 年，阿吉特加入伯克希尔，那时，我们的保险业务微不足道。经过他几十年的努力，现在我们的保险业务已经成为行业巨擘。保险业务是伯克希尔最重要的生意。投资业务也很重要，投资业务是一个引擎，保险业务是另一个引擎。
And Ajit. We won’t have the same business if Ajit isn’t running it, but we’ll have a very good business. And again, that’s thanks to Ajit.
全靠阿吉特，我们的保险业务才有今天的成就。将来，阿吉特不在了，我们的保险生意仍然会是好生意，但肯定比阿吉特在的时候要逊色。
I’d been in the business when he came in 1986. I first went to GEICO in 1950. We first bought national indemnity in 1957, and it was something that we’d made quite a bit of money in the stocks of insurance companies, but we needed an Ajit, unfortunately, he came into the office on a Saturday and he was tired of working at something where he really didn’t - it just challenges his intellect. And I said, well, we got a lot of challenges. Nobody’s perfect. So you’ve never seen an insurance policy or owned an insurance stock, but here are the keys, and that’s worked out very well.
1986 年，阿吉特加入伯克希尔之前，我已经接触保险生意有一段时间了。1950 年，我初次拜访盖可保险。1957 年，我们买入了国民赔偿公司 (National Indemnity)。我们投资保险公司赚了不少钱，但是我们不懂如何经营保险公司，我们需要一个像阿吉特这样的人。那是一个星期六，阿吉特来到了伯克希尔。他觉得之前的工作没什么挑战性。我对他说，我们这份工作非常有挑战性。我问他：“有保险行业的经验吗？”他说：“没有。”我说：“没关系，以后保险生意就交给你管了。”从那以后，伯克希尔的保险业务蒸蒸日上。（掌声）
AJIT: Thank you very much, Warren. Thank you very much, everyone. But the fact of the matter is, nobody is irreplaceable. And we have Tim Cook here in the audience, I believe, who has proved that and has set an example for a lot of people who follow.
**
阿吉特：谢谢你，沃伦。谢谢各位。实际上，没有谁是无法取代的。今天，蒂姆·库克 (Tim Cook) 也来到了现场。我想，库克就充分地证明了继任者一样能做得非常出色。**
WARREN BUFFETT: That’s a great observation.
巴菲特：有道理。
AJIT: Now, having said that, I will also add that our board is conscious of the succession issue, not only at Warren’s level, but also at my level. And every year they have me sitting in front of them answering questions and having me share my ideas with them in terms of what would happen to the operations if I get hit by a truck.
阿吉特：另外，伯克希尔的董事会非常重视接班人的问题，不只是谁来接沃伦的班，也包括谁来接我的班。每年，董事会都安排我参加一次专门的会议，询问我关于接班的问题，让我告诉他们，如果我遭遇不测，无法继续履职，如何保证继续正常经营。
We go through the various operations we have. I review with them a short list of people I think ought to be candidates for replacing me. And in addition to that, I go a step further and identify a particular individual as the person I would hand over the keys to if something were to happen to me. Obviously that would be subject to change. But we take this issue fairly seriously. And I think at the end of the day, as Tim Cook has proved to us, it will be the biggest non issue of the day. The earth will still keep revolving around the axis.
我们讨论多个解决方案。我给他们列出一份接班人候选名单，并介绍每个人的特点。另外，我还会具体指定一位接班人，如果我发生了意外，可以让这个人立即接班。当然了，我们只是在准备和安排，并没有定下来。大家可以放心，我们非常重视这个问题。就像蒂姆·库克做的非常出色一样，终于有一天，大家会发现，接班的问题完全用不着担心。离了谁，地球都照样转。
WARREN BUFFETT: Okay, we know what we will do. We know it’s a good answer, but we know it isn’t. It isn’t. We won’t have another Ajit. Station five.
巴菲特：我们相信，我们能解决好接班的问题。阿吉特回答得很好，但我们知道，阿吉特只有一个。请第 5 区提问。
问题 10：如果能再和查理共度一天……
QUESTIONER: Hi, my name is Ange Andrew Nickes and I’m wondering, if you. Had one more day with Charlie, what would you do with him?
**
问题 10：您好，我叫 Andrew Nickes。我想知道，如果您能再与查理共度一天，您会做些什么？（掌声）**
Warren Buffett: Well, it’s kind of interesting because, in effect, I did have one more day. I mean, it wasn’t a full day or anything, but he. We always lived in a way where we were happy with what we were doing every day. I mean, Charlie liked learning. He liked, as I mentioned in the movie, he liked a wide variety of things. So he was much broader than I was. But I didn’t have any great desire to be as broad as he was. And he didn’t have any great desire to be as narrow as I. But we had a lot of fun doing anything. And, you know, we played golf together, we played tennis together, we did everything together.
巴菲特：其实，查理去世前，我和他一起待了一段时间，不到一天，但确实见面了。
我们俩的生活方式一样，我们每天都做自己喜欢的事。查理活到老，学到老。我在开场前的短片中提到了，查理的兴趣非常广泛。他比较“博”，我比较“钻”，我们各有所长，但多年来，我们一直相处的很融洽。 我们一起打高尔夫球、打网球，一起度过了很多快乐的时光。
And this you may find kind of interesting. We had as much fun, perhaps even more to some extent, with things that failed, because then we really had to work and work our way out of them. And in a sense, there’s more fun having somebody that’s your partner in digging your way out of a foxhole than there is just sitting there and watching an idea that you gotten years ago just continually produce more and more profits. So it wasn’t, you know, he really fooled me, though. He went to 99.9 years. I mean, if you pick two guys, you know, he never publicly said he never did a day of exercise except where it was required when he was in the army. He never did a day of voluntary exercise. He never thought about what he ate.
我们一起赚钱，有时候，我们找到的一个好机会，让我们在以后十多年的时间里躺着赚钱，我们能不高兴吗？我们一起患难，甚至可以说，患难更让我们体会到友谊的宝贵。在我们齐心协力克服困难的过程中，我们更加亲密无间。那种感觉，就好像在战场上兄弟之间形成的过命的交情。查理的生活方式，大家知道。他说过，除了年轻当兵的时候，必须得训练，他从来不刻意锻炼身体。他也从来不认为这不能吃、那不能吃的。然而，他竟然活到了 99.9 岁。一个比他生活方式更健康的人，未必比他活的时间长。
You know, we started every day, and Charlie had. He was interested in more things than I was, but we never had any doubts about the other person, period. And so if I’d had another day with him, we’d probably have done the same thing we were doing the earlier days and we wouldn’t have wanted another.
我和查理有不同之处，他的兴趣比我广泛，但是我们之间的信任那是铁打的。如果我和他能再次度过一天的时间，我们可能还是像从前一样。其实，不知道最后一天来临更好一些，不知道自己哪天会死去更好一些。
We only had one day. There’s a great advantage in not knowing where you’re going, what day you’re going to die. And Charlie always said that, just tell me where I going to die, so I’ll never go there. Well, the truth is he went everywhere with his mind, and therefore he was not only interested in the world at 99, but the world was interested in him. It’s remarkable, you know. I told him toward that. In the last few years, I’d never seen anybody that was peaking, you know, in 99 and where the world wanted to come and see him. I mean, they actually wanted to go out to 351 North Yune street. And whether it was, well, I could name a whole bunch of names, but just. I’ll start with Elon Musk, but go down the list. And they all wanted to meet Charlie, and Charlie was happy to talk with them. And the only person I could think of otherwise was the Dalai Lama. I don’t know that they had a lot else in common, but it was, he lived his life the way he wanted to, and he got to say what he wanted to say. He, like I, loved having a podium again.
查理经常讲，他想知道自己可能死在哪，这样他就知道不去那些地方了。其实，在精神世界中，查理走遍了世界的每个角落。99 岁高龄的查理，仍然关注着世界，而世界也关注着查理。很少有人能像查理这样，在自己的晚年达到人生的巅峰。查理，一位 99 岁的老人，登门拜访求教者络绎不绝，北六月街 351 号 (351 North June Street) 门庭若市。人们排着队要见查理，其中包括埃隆·马斯克 (Elon Musk) 等名人。大家都想找查理请教，而查理也乐于分享他的智慧。查理并不信奉佛教，但晚年的查理犹如一位高僧大德，得了大自在，一言一行，了无滞碍。我乐于传经布道，查理也乐于传经布道。
I can’t remember any time that he was mad at me or I was mad at him. It just didn’t happen. And calling him was fun back when long distance rates were high and we didn’t talk as often as the years, in recent years, as we used to be on daily for long periods. And we did keep learning and we liked learning together, but, you know, we tended to be a little smarter because as the years went by, because we had mistakes and we had other things where we learned something.
我刚才讲了，我们搭档这么多年，从来没红过脸。以前，打长途电话很贵，但我和查理天天打，一聊就聊个没完。近些年，我们打电话不像以前那么频了。不过，我们活到老学到老的劲头丝毫不减。几十年来，经过无数次成败的历练，我们的智慧与日俱增。
And the fact that he and I were on the same wavelength in that respect meant that the world was still a very interesting place to us when he got to be 99 and I got to be 93. So I don’t have a perfect answer for you there, but I can tell you the ingredients that would go into.
我们相互砥砺、共同进益，一个 99 岁，一个 93 岁，仍然对世界充满好奇。说来说去，我没法具体告诉你我会做哪些事，只能给你一个大致的回答。
Sometimes people would say to me or Charlie at one of these meetings, you know, if you had only have lunch with one person that lived over the last 2000 or so years, you know, who would you want to have it with? Charlie says, I’ve already met all of them. You know, because he read all the books. I mean, he, and he eliminated all the trouble of going to restaurants to meet him or anything like that. He just went through a book and he met Ben Franklin. And he really, he was remarkable. He said he really had no one else to meet because he’d read all their stuff and he liked Ben Franklin’s stuff better than he liked mine. But with Ben Franklin, he just had to read about it. He didn’t have to go have lunch with him or anything of the sort.
在以前的股东会上，有人问我或者查理，如果能和过去 2000 年里的一个人共进午餐，我们会选择谁。查理的回答是，“我想见的人，我全都见过了。”查理博览群书。用不着约饭那么麻烦，一本书读完，他就和本·富兰克林相谈甚欢。查理就是这么倜傥不群。他说过，他想见的人都见过了，书里都有。他最欣赏本·富兰克林。想见本·富兰克林，查理读他的书就行了，用不着亲自见到本人。
But it’s an interesting question. What you should probably ask yourself is who do you feel that you’d want to start spending the last day of your life with? And then figure out a way to start meeting them, or tomorrow, and meet them as often as you can, because why wait a little last day and don’t bother with the others? Okay, Becky.
把这个问题换个问法，可能更有意义。你可以问自己，如果你的生命只剩一天，你希望谁来陪你度过。回答完这个问题，想好了这个人是谁，就尽快和他/她在一起，也许从明天就开始，多和他/她在一起，为什么非要等到最后一天呢？别把生命浪费在不值得的人身上。（掌声）
好的，贝琪，下一问题。
Becky Quick: this question comes from Carol de Gend in Switzerland, in Europe, and this is for both Mr Buffett and Mr Jain. As political instability in the world is growing with a rise in the number of armed conflicts and trade tension, there is also increasing risk of cyberattacks. What are your views on cybersecurity insurance? Asking this question in general, for retail, small businesses and large companies, including critical key infrastructure such as power plants, harbors, airports, nuclear plants, etc. Do you see a potential for profit making in cybersecurity insurances, and what are the key challenges?
**
问题 11：这个问题来自瑞士的 Carol de Gend，请巴菲特先生和阿吉特先生回答。如今世界动荡不安，多地发生武装冲突，贸易战频发，网络攻击的风险也日益加剧。请问你们如何看待网络安全保险业务？针对零售业、中小企业、大型企业，包括发电厂、港口、机场、核电厂等大型基础设施，开展网络安全保险业务是否有利可图？面临哪些困难？**
AJIT JAIN: Okay, let me start. Cyber insurance has become a very fashionable product these days over these last few years. It is at least a $10 billion market right now globally, and profitability has also been fairly high. I think profitability is at least 20% of the total premium has ended up as profit in the pockets of the insurance bearers.
阿吉特：好的，我先答一下。近年来，网络安全保险业务很流行。经过几年的发展，现在这块业务的全球规模已经不低于 100 亿美元，利润率也非常可观。我估计，在总保费中，至少有 20% 作为利润进了保险公司的口袋。
Now, having said that, we at Berkshire tend to be very, very careful when it comes to taking on cyber insurance liabilities. Actually for two reasons. One is it’s very difficult to know what is the quantum of losses that can be subject to a single occurrence, and the aggregation potential of cyber losses, especially if some cloud operation comes to a standstill. That aggregation potential can be huge, and not being able to have a worst case cap on it is what scares us.
尽管如此，在网络安全保险业务方面，伯克希尔的态度慎之又慎。原因有两点：第一，一次大型网络安全风险爆发，可能造成的损失总量有多大，我们难以判断。网络攻击可能引发聚合风险，例如，云服务中断可能导致风险集中爆发，触发巨额损失。损失的上限难以估计，所以我们心怀畏惧。
Secondly, it’s also very difficult to have some sense of what we call loss cost, or the cost of goods sold could potentially be. It’s not just for a single loss, but for losses across over time, they have been fairly well contained out of 100 cents of the dollar. The premium losses over the last four or five years, I think, have not been beyond forty cents of the dollar, leaving a decent profit margin. But having said that, there’s not enough data tobe able to hang your hat on and say what your true loss cost is.
第二，承保网络安全风险，我们的损失成本是多少，也很难估量。不只是单一案例造成的损失，而是所有案例加起来可能造成的损失。最近四五年，保额损失率很低，大概不到 40%，保险公司赚到了保费中的很大一部分。近期的利润虽高，但是从现有数据中，无法确切知道损失成本到底是多少。
So in our insurance operations, I have told the people running the operations is, I’ve discouraged them from writing cyber insurance to the extent they need to write it so as to satisfy certain client needs. I have told them, no matter how much you charge, you should tell yourself that each time you write a cyber insurance policy, you’re losing money. We can argue about how much money you’re losing, but the mindset should be you’re not making money on it, you’re losing money. And then we should go from there. So it is good. It’s projected to be a huge business. My guess is at some point it might, it might become a huge business, but it might be associated with huge losses. And our approach is to sort of stay away from it right now until we can have access to some meaningful data and hang our hat on data.
在我们保险分部，我告诉我们的员工，最好别接网络安全保险。如果客户提出了这方面的要求，不能不满足，那就要慎之又慎。我告诉我们的员工，接网络安全的单子，不管你把保费定多高，你都要告诉自己，这个单子是亏钱的。首先把基准定好，亏钱是肯定的，区别只在于亏多亏少。这是我们做网络安全保险业务的出发点。大家都觉得，网络安全保险是一块很大的蛋糕。我觉得，有可能做得很大，也有可能引发巨亏。由于尚未掌握可靠的数据，对于网络安全保险，我们持保留态度。
WARREN BUFFETT: Well, you’ve just made, you’ve just heard why Ajit is invaluable. Because when you insure something, you really want to think of what, how much can you lose? And the question, I remember the first time it was, happened, I think in 1968 when there were the riots in various cities, because I think it was the Bobby Kennedy death that set it off for the Martin Luther King death. I’m not sure which one.
**
巴菲特：听完阿吉特讲的这一番话，大家应该明白阿吉特有多难得了。做保险业务，必须首先清楚损失成本是多少。我第一次深刻认识到这个问题是在 1968 年。那年，先是马丁·路德·金 (Martin Luther King) 遇刺，美国多座城市陷入骚乱。一波未平一波又起，接着罗伯特·肯尼迪(Robert Kennedy) 遇刺，又引发了大规模的骚乱。**
But in any event, when you write a policy, you have a limit in that policy. But the question is, what is one event? So if somebody is assassinated in some town and that causes losses at thousands of businesses all over the country, if you’ve written all those thousands of policies, you have one event, or do you have a thousand events? And there’s no place where that kind of a dilemma enters into more than cyber. Because if you think about it, if, you know, let’s say you’re writing $10 million of limit per risk, and that’s fine, if you lose 10 million for some event, you can take it. But the problem is if that one event turns out to affect 1000 policies and somehow they’re all linked together in some way and the courts decide that way, you’ve written something that in no way we’re getting the proper price for and could break the company.
就每一笔保单而言，都设有赔偿上限。问题在于，每一笔保单的风险是孤立的吗？一位公众人物在一座城市被暗杀，全国几千家企业被迫中断经营。如果这几千家企业在一家保险公司买了保险，这家保险公司在接每笔业务的时候，以为每笔风险是孤立的，没想到却一下子集中爆发了。这种风险在网络安全业务中尤其难以判断。假设一家保险公司，为每笔保单设置了 100 万美元的赔偿上限。如果真是孤立事件，出险了，赔偿 100 万美元是赔得起的。怕就怕风险集中爆发，原以为孤立的风险聚合到一起，1000 笔类似的保单同时出险，而法院判决保险公司赔偿所有损失。在这种情况下，保险公司忽视了聚合风险，把保单价格定得太低了，可能直接陷入破产。
And I will tell you that most people want to be in anything that’s fashionable when they write insurance. And cyber’s an easy issue. You can write a lot of it. The agents like it. You know, they’re getting the commission on every policy they write. And you’ve got to have somebody in charge of things that understands that you may get an aggregation of risks that you never dreamt of and maybe worse as, and some earthquake happening someplace just because you have a whole bunch of policies with a million dollar limit. And I would say that human nature is such that most insurance companies will get very excited and their agents will get very excited, and it’s very fashionable and it’s kind of interesting, and as Charlie would say, it may be rat poison.
我很清楚，在保险行业，只要单子好签，总会有很多人趋之若鹜。网络安全保险很好签，签的单子越多，收到的保费越多。每签一单，就能得到提成，保险代理人何乐而不为。所以说，保险公司的高层必须严格把关。否则的话，你以为自己接的大量保单都有风险上限，以为它们之间没有关联，一旦风险集中爆发，就傻眼了，造成的损失可能比一场地震还大。 就网络安全保险而言，大多数保险公司和它们的代理人怎么可能放着眼前的钱不赚，这是人性使然。查理一定会说，“彼之蜜糖，我之砒霜。”
Okay, well, that cheerful view. We’ll go to station six.
下一问题，第 6 区。
问题 12：能源行业的转型不可能一蹴而就
QUESTIONER: Good morning. This question is for Warren Buffett and Greg Abel. My name is Maria Preenas. I am a retiree from Las Vegas, Nevada. I am here today as a member of (inaudible) Nevada, a group of developed Latin leaders for the environment of justices. I am almost here representing many Latin families in Nevada who are struggling to pay their utility bills and want access to affordable, clean electricity. I want to add today, why is NV Energy, which is owned by the Berkshire Hathaway, building new gas plants instead of investing in solar energy? With Nevada one and the sunniest state in the country, can I expect to see future leadership take dangerous investments in the fossils levels more seriously? Thank you.
**
问题 12：您好。我的问题请沃伦·巴菲特和格雷格·阿贝尔回答。我叫 Maria Preenas，来自内华达州拉斯维加斯。我代表内华达州的一个拉美裔环保组织出席此次会议。我想在此为内华达州众多的拉美裔家庭表达诉求。我们承受不起高昂的电费，我们希望能用上便宜的清洁能源。在内华达州，伯克希尔·哈撒韦旗下的 NV 能源公司 (NV Energy) 正在建设天然气发电厂。内华达州的光照充足，我想知道，你们为什么不建设太阳能发电厂？伯克希尔的管理层能否对削减化石燃料提高重视？谢谢。**
WARREN BUFFETT: And thank you, Maria. Greg, you?
**
巴菲特：谢谢你的提问，Maria。格雷格，你来回答啊？**
GREG ABEL: Sure. Thank you. So, as we touched on with NV energy even earlier, there’s a lot going on there.
When I think of, there’s no question solar is a great opportunity for nv energy, and we’ll continue to utilize that as a resource and continue to invest in it in that utility and the other utility we have in Nevada. We’re also in a point where, when you think of a transition that’s going on within the energy sector, we are transitioning from carbon resources to renewable resources, as was noted, but it will not occur overnight. That transition will take many years. And as we use, be it renewable resources such as solar or wind, they are intermittent, and we do try to combine it with batteries. But at this point in time, we cannot transition completely away from the carbon resources.
太阳能是 NV 能源公司很重要的一个电力来源，我们将继续在内华达州投资包括太阳能在内的多种发电方式。目前，能源行业正处于转型阶段，从化石能源逐步过渡到可再生能源，这个转型过程不可能一蹴而就，需要很多年才能完成。光电和风电等新能源具有“间歇性”的特点，储能是解决这个问题的关键。目前，技术还不够成熟，我们无法完全摆脱对化石能源的依赖。
So if I think of Nevada in the next two years, our last two coal units are. Well, actually, in the next year, our last two coal units will retire, but we are replacing them with a new gas unit, which is truly needed to make sure that system remains reliable and available to, to our customers. And that’s done in conjunction with our, with the state representatives and our regulatory agencies to make sure we can serve those customers every day and every minute.
明年，我们将在内华达州关闭我们的最后两座火电厂，以一座天然气发电厂取而代之，在转型的同时保证可靠稳定的电力供应。建设天然气发电厂，是出于保供的考虑，得到了内华达州监管部门的授权和许可。
We have great examples in Iowa where at times, 100% of our energy comes from wind. And we’re thrilled with that. And I believe we hit that, for example, on earth day. We had enough wind that we could meet the demand of that state. But the next day, if the wind’s not blowing, we need our gas resources, our gas plants, to fill that gap. And really, that’s the situation we still have in Nevada. So we’ll continue the transition to renewable resources, be it solar in Nevada. And wind and other areas combined with batteries. But for the foreseeable future, we do see gas being a very important resource to help maintain reliability and meet our customer needs. And to meet it in an affordable way is also an important piece of that. So thank you for your comments.
我们积极投资新能源。在爱荷华州，我们甚至有发电量 100% 来自的风能的时候。我记得，地球日那天，我们就达到了这个目标。爱荷华州的风力资源丰富，足以满足该州的电力需求。但是，当风力减弱的时候，我们需要天然气发电顶上来。这就是为什么我们要在内华达州建设天然气发电厂。我们将继续向新能源转型，无论是内华达州的太阳能，还是其它州的风能，与储能技术结合起来，都能做出巨大贡献。与此同时，在未来的很长一段时间里，天然气发电厂仍然必不可少，保证电力的稳定供应，并将电费维持在较低的水平。谢谢你的提问。
WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah, we’ve got the capital to do whatever makes the most sense in a place like Nevada and the Nevada, I don’t know. Each state calls their ruling commission something different, but they probably call it the public service commission or something like that. And they’re making the decision as to what they think can and should be done in terms of getting from where a vastly complicated utility business moves towards something different without messing things up in the meantime and having the lights go off. And they, I think they would probably agree with you very much, Maria, that they what they where they want to get, but they can’t do it tomorrow because of the intermittent problems. And their job is to make sure the lights stay on. And their job is also to move toward better sources. But solar will never be the only source of electricity because, well, Greg may know more about this, but barring some real breakthroughs in storage and that sort of thing. Right?
**
巴菲特：伯克希尔有足够的财力，支持内华达州向新能源转型。各州有各州的监管机构，在向新能源转型方面，各州有各州的做法。公用事业行业规模庞大，在转型的同时必须保证电力的稳定供应。Maria，我觉得你想要的，也是监管机构追求的。但是，太阳能存在“间歇性”问题，不可能一下子全换成太阳能。一方面是向新能源转型，另一方面是保供，二者必须兼顾。太阳能还无法作为主要电力来源，特别是储能的问题还没解决。对于这方面，格雷格比我更了解。是这样吧，格雷格？**
GREG ABEL: Yeah. Yeah. Generally a battery right now to do it in an economical way is a four hour battery.
格雷格：您说得对。目前，比较经济的电池可以储能四小时。
And when you think of the time without the sun being available, that’s a challenge. Now there’s a lot of technology advancements and that’s stretching out and you throw dollars, a lot of things, you can accomplish things, but the reality is that there’s a careful balance of the reliability and also balancing, as it was noted, the rates do matter and how much customers are paying. So delicate balance of both delivering reliability but doing it in an affordable way.
考虑到整个夜晚都没有光照，四个小时显然不够。现在的技术进步很快，只要投入资金，可以做到储存更长时间。问题在于，即使技术上能实现，成本太高也不行。电费高了，公众接受不了。所以说，这里有个平衡的问题。
WARREN BUFFETT: My friend Bill Gates, he’s working on shortening up that, lengthening the time the battery works on.
巴菲特：我的朋友比尔·盖茨，他投资了储能电池项目，正在研究如何延长储能时间。
And so you got some very smart people working on it, but it isn’t something that you actually do overnight. And I can understand why people want it done overnight, but it is going to take a lot of money. It’s going to take a lot of good ideas and smart people like Bill and Greg, not me. I don’t understand why the damn lights go on when I even turn the switch, but those, those fellas really do. And there’s plenty of them working on it and we got plenty of money to implement it. But there are certain things that just take a certain amount of time. My daughter hates it when I use this example, but it’s really true that you can’t create a baby in one month by getting nine women pregnant. I mean, you may want a baby, so there are certain laws of nature that you have to work with.
现在，很多一流的人才在研究这个问题，只是不可能一夜之间就取得突破。很多人希望一夜之间变成现实，这种心情我很理解。向新能源转型，需要大量资金，需要大量人才，需要比尔和格雷格这样的人。我是不行，我连电灯怎么亮的都弄不明白。我不行，没关系，有人行。现在很多人在朝这个方向努力。伯克希尔财力雄厚，等技术成熟了，我们可以出钱投资。
总之，有些事需要时间。有个比喻很形象，我以前讲过。我女儿说不得体，不让我讲。一个女人十个月生一个娃，那是不是十个女人一个月就能生一个娃？不是你想一个月生出来，就能一个月生出来的，万事万物的发展有其自身的规律和节奏。
Okay, Becky.
贝琪，下一问题。
问题 13：佛罗里达州的保险市场很难做
BECKY QUICK: this question comes from Rich. McCloskey in Dunedin, Florida. He says, Warren and Ajit, would you let us know what you think about the car and property insurance situation in Florida as a resident? Both seem out of control since the Florida market seems to be so mismanaged. Is this an opportunity for Berkshire?
**
问题 13：这个问题来自佛罗里达州达尼丁市的 Rich McCloskey。他的问题如下。 沃伦、阿吉特，请问你们如何看待佛罗里达州的车险和财险行业？作为一个本地人，我发现佛罗里达州的保险市场管理混乱。这是否可能成为伯克希尔的机会？**
AJIT JAIN: Yeah. The Florida market, both for auto insurance and for homeowners insurance, has had a few tough years. The two problems we face in Florida and all the risk bearers face in Florida, one is the lawyers and the amount of corruption that takes place in the Florida market keeps skyrocketing, making it difficult for us to price the product and make a profit. And secondly, the amount of activity in terms of storms, both the frequency and the severity, is also so severe that the losses in Florida tend to make it very difficult for a risk bearer to make money.
阿吉特：确实，佛罗里达州的保险市场，无论是车险，还是房屋保险，前几年一直很难做。在佛罗里达州，包括我们在内的保险公司主要面临两个困难。第一，在佛罗里达州，虚假索赔太多，过度诉讼严重，我们保险公司难以合理定价，难以获得利润；第二，在佛罗里达州，高强度飓风频发，这也让我们保险公司很难赚钱。
Having said that, we fortunately had a very good run at Florida last year. We increased our exposure in Florida as we talked about last year, and fortunately nothing bad happened. So a lot of our premiums that were in the top line flew straight to the bottom line. Florida is a large market. Florida is the market that’s subsidized by the rest of the country. I don’t think those that’s going to stand the test of time.
尽管如此，我们去年运气比较好，在佛罗里达州收获颇丰。去年，我们增加了佛罗里达州的业务量，恰好没发生巨灾，我们很走运。我们收取的保费，很大一部分直接变成了利润。
The Florida market, the legislators are trying to improve it. They have passed law that is bringing down the amount of fraud that takes place in Florida. And I hope Florida will be a fairly buoyant insurance market because at the end of the day, they do believe in the free market more than some of the other states that have an insurance crisis, like California and New York. So, yes, Florida has a problem. Prices will go up fairly substantially, but at the end of the day, I think we’ll achieve a degree of balance so that the risk bearers can make a decent profit and will be deploying capital out there.
佛罗里达州的市场很大。过去，保险公司在佛罗里达州是亏损的，靠着其它州赚来的钱贴补，才能在佛罗里达州继续开展业务。我相信这种情况不会一直持续下去。佛罗里达州的立法机构正在采取措施改变现状。目前，佛罗里达州已经通过了法律，打压欺诈诉讼行为。相对而言，佛州的情况比加州和纽约州要好。佛州的监管机构比较支持自由市场竞争，佛州的保险市场能兴盛起来。佛州的保险市场以前存在弊端，这才导致如今的保费大幅上扬。相信经过一段时间的发展，佛州的保险市场能进入平稳健康的状态。让保险公司获得公允合理的利润，保险公司才能放心地开展业务。
WARREN BUFFETT: Okay. Station seven, please.
巴菲特：好的，请第 7 区提问。
问题 14：沃伦给出一个值得任何人倾听的建议
QESTIONER: Hi, Warren. My name is Christine Hone Garcia and I’m from Agora Hills, California. Thank you for being an excellent teacher and imparting your wisdom to us throughout the years. What advice would you like to share today that you believe everyone needs to hear?
**
问题 14：沃伦，您好。我叫 Christine Hone Garcia，来自加州阿古拉山市。您是一位优秀的老师，多年来无私地向我们分享您的智慧。您能否给所有人提出一个他们都需要倾听的建议？**
WARREN BUFFETT: Well, too bad you added that, what the rest of us would like to hear. I would say that if I had one piece of advice, I would try to. Well, and you’re lucky to live in this country just to start with, because you’ve got opportunities here that wouldn’t exist in much of the world.
巴菲特：我可以提建议，但未必所有人都愿意听。
什么建议呢？我尽量试着回答啊。首先，我想说，出生在美国就很幸运了。在这个国度，我们有很多机会，换成在别的国家，可能根本没有。（掌声）
But I would like, I would like to really sort of use Charlie’s advice of thinking how you like your obituary to read, and then start selecting the educational pass, the social pass, whatever, that your particular situation in terms of associating, and perhaps certainly in my day, it would have been marrying the person that would best help you do that. Well, Charlie would say you were offering some similar benefit to the partner.
关于人生建议，查理讲过，“反着来，想想自己死的时候要得到怎样的结果，按照那样的结果倒推着生活。”以终为始，琢磨自己该受什么样的教育、选择什么样的职业路径、选择什么样的人交往。就我个人而言，我年轻时选择的伴侣对我帮助最大**。** 不过，查理也说了，你要找到优秀的伴侣，你自己也得配得上人家。
But the opportunity in this country is basically limitless. When you think of going back not that many centuries, if you were going to be a shepherd or something like that, 100 years from now, your grandson or granddaughter, was going to be a shepherd, nothing really happened. And what has happened in the last 200 years with the combination of the industrial revolution, whether it’s science or education or health, you name it. We are so lucky to be born when we were, the people in this room, and many of us were lucky enough to be born in the United States as well.
可以说，美国机会遍地。把时间倒退几个世纪，世界一成不变，你是放羊的，100 年后，你的孙子孙女还是放羊的。过去 200 年里，随着工业革命的发生，科学、教育、健康等方方面面取得了突飞猛进的发展。生于这个时代，就已经很幸运了。能出生在美国，那更幸运了。
You’re entering the best world that’s ever existed, and you want to find the people to share it with and the activities to participate in that fit you. And if you get lucky, like Charlie and I did, you find things that interest you young. But if you don’t find them right away, you keep looking. And I always tell students to take the job. I mean, find the job that you would like to have if you didn’t need a job.
别辜负这最好的时代，何不与志同道合的人一起，发挥自己的才华，开创一番事业？我和查理运气好，我们年轻的时候就找到了自己人生的方向。年轻人，现在还没找到人生目标的话，没关系，继续找。在与年轻学子交流时，我总是告诉他们，做自己喜欢的工作，别计较太多别的。
And sometimes you can find that very early, and sometimes you go through various experiences, but don’t forget what you actually are trying to do, and there’s no place to do it like this country. Find the person that you like to share your life with in many cases. And, you know, sometimes you get lucky into that early, and sometimes you make mistakes. But I would try to, in a very, very general way, I would try to figure out how you’d want to look back on your life and think about yourself and start today to go on the path that leads to that goal and expect some difficulties along the way. But if you’re thinking that way, you’re more likely to get there.
有的人，很早就找到了心之所向。有的人，走了一些弯路，才知道了自己想要的是什么。无论如何，别迷失自我。 美国的舞台足够大，机会足够多，总有属于你的一片天。在你的人生之路上，选择与谁携手同行，也非常重要。同样地，在选择伴侣方面，也是有人比较幸运，有人要经历一些波折。
总之，如果我是一个年轻人，我会反着来，想想自己死的时候要得到怎样的结果，按照那样的结果倒推着生活，并且做好充分的准备，迎接人生路上的种种困难。 像我说的这样想、这样做，可能更容易过好一生。（掌声）
Becky.
贝琪，下一问题。
问题 15：格雷格和阿贝尔将伯克希尔经营得很好
BECKY QUICK: This question comes from Axel Mayerseek in Hamburg, Germany. What has changed for Berkshire’s operating CEO’s since Greg Abel and Ajit Jain became vice chairman, for example? Can and do the operating CEOs still reach out to Warren Buffett directly?
**
问题 15：来自德国汉堡的 Axel Mayerseek 问道：“自从格雷格·阿贝尔和阿吉特·贾因升任董事会副主席以来，伯克希尔子公司的高管汇报情况是否发生了变化？子公司的高管仍然向沃伦·巴菲特直接汇报吗？”**
WARREN BUFFETT: The answer might surprise you, but they overwhelmingly, the operating executives, well, they prefer to talk to Greg or to Ajit. And that’s understandable because I don’t really do much and I don’t operate at the same level of efficiency than I would have 30 years ago or 40 years ago. I don’t know the managers as well as I would have when we were smaller and when I could get more accomplished in a day than I can now.
巴菲特：说出来，大家可能不信，现在子公司的高管已经直接向格雷格和阿吉特汇报工作了。其实，这完全可以理解。我现在能做的事很少。我早就不像三四十年前那么年富力强了。我和伯克希尔现在的高管没那么熟，不像伯克希尔早期，我们规模小的时候，我经常和子公司的经理人打交道。再说我也老了，精力不如从前，不像以前那么能干了。
And you’ve got. When you’ve got somebody like Greg and Ajit, why settle for me, basically? So it’s worked out extremely well. And I almost can’t imagine anything working better because Greg in a year accomplishes. I mean, he sees more of them, understands more about their problems, you know, can give them suggestions. He’s got incredible amounts of energy and nobody has more wisdom than Ajit about insurance. And they’ve got access in insurance to him now. They had it before we stuck some of those titles on in insurance.
有格雷格和阿吉特在，也用不着我了。现在的安排非常好，伯克希尔的经营很顺畅。我对现在的安排非常满意。格雷格精力充沛，他的工作效率比我高多了，他经常与高管见面，了解他们的问题，为他们提供建议。在保险方面，阿吉特的智慧是独一档的存在。伯克希尔旗下保险公司的高管有什么问题，可以请教阿吉特。
Whereas with Greg, he much expanded things when he became the vice chairman in charge of really everything except insurance. If you polled our managers that fall under his jurisdiction, which would be a lot of them, they would much prefer, unless like a few, they weren’t paying as much attention to their business and I wouldn’t do anything about it, but Greg would. And they still like it when he does it. He can deliver news very well to people.
其实，早在我们宣布任命阿吉特为副主席之前，他就一直在领导保险分部。格雷格当选为副主席之后，主管保险以外的所有其它业务，他的管辖范围扩大了很多。在格雷格管辖范围内，各子公司的高管直接向格雷格汇报。有些伯克希尔的经理人，工作做得不够尽职尽责。面对这种情况，我没什么办法，格雷格却能出手解决。格雷格的方法很高明，他知道如何与人沟通，把问题解决了，还不伤感情。
There will be some people. If you have. If you have 20 children and you’re very rich, you’ll have some that will be go getters anyway, and you’ll have some that won’t. And we are a very, very rich company and we don’t - we haven’t had a history of being very tough on people that coasted. And we’ve had some that would do that. And Greg will do something about it. And Charlie and I wouldn’t have. Not because we didn’t know it should be done, but because we were doing so well ourselves. We wouldn’t make the effort. We didn’t want to change our lives that way. Plus, we slowed down in various ways, ways physically and everything.
一个富裕的大家庭，有 20 个子女，其中肯定有奋发向上的，也有甘于平庸的。伯克希尔是一个财力雄厚的大集团，在我们的众多子公司中，也有得过且过的。按照以前伯克希尔的行事风格，对于得过且过的高管，我们从来不会严加管束。我们不管，但格雷格管。我和查理睁一只眼闭一只眼，不是因为我们不知道存在问题，而是我们不愿打破我们平静的生活，我们不愿指出别人的错误，不想和别人起冲突。再说了，我们年纪也大了，精力体力也不如从前了。
So I would say that the number of calls I get from managers is essentially awfully close to zero. And Greg is handling those. I don’t know quite how he does it, but we’ve got the right person, I can tell you that. And with Ajit, he does less physical moving and the insurance people are more used to working with Ajit, obviously, over the years. So I wouldn’t say that changing the title really changes as much there because he was in charge of insurance anyway. You can go to a business school and they can give you way better answers than I’ve just given you, but that’s the way we do it at Berkshire.
这么说吧，现在几乎没有高管给我打电话了。一切由格雷格全权处理。如此繁重的工作，做得这么好，格雷格具体怎么做到的，我不清楚，但我可以明确的告诉大家，我们已经找到了合格的接班人。阿吉特现在出差少了，但多年来保险分部的高管们一直在阿吉特的领导下工作。阿吉特升任董事会副主席，只是头衔变了，他仍然像以往一样领导保险分部。商学院的管理理论高高在上，远非我的回答所能及，但这就是我们伯克希尔的做法。
AJIT JAIN: Yeah. If I can add a comment. From my perspective, the transition has worked out very, very well, but I think the credit really goes to how Warren has handled the situation. And what I mean by that is, after the transition was announced, and a lot of the operating managers used to be. They were used to calling Warren directly on some issue or the other.
阿吉特：请允许我补充一下，我想从我的角度说几句。在我看来，接班工作非常顺利，主要归功于沃伦的推动。多年来，很多子公司的高管早已习惯了与沃伦直接沟通。正式宣布接班任命之后，他们遇到了问题，仍然直接给沃伦打电话。
After the transition, when they would continue to do so, Warren would very skillfully, in his manner, handle them such that he would not answer what they were looking for, but at the same time made them feel good and told them that he sort of enjoyed hearing from them and talking to them. So as a result of which, you know, the transition took place, people got the message. They got the message and were very responsive to it. And it’s a non issue as far as today is concerned.
沃伦巧妙地应对，他仍然热情地与打来电话的高管交谈，但并不直接回答他们的问题。这样一来，高管们心领神会，再不找沃伦，而直接找我们了，接班工作也就顺利推进了。接班的问题，现在大家完全没必要担心。（掌声）
GREG ABEL: I would probably add. Yeah, the only thing I would add is we do have an exceptional set of managers across both the non insurance and insurance. And, yes, Warren made it incredibly easy, but so did they. It was a very easy transition because they cared deeply about Berkshire, they cared deeply about the culture, and they very much wanted it to be a success. And we’re fortunate to have those managers in insurance and non insurance.
格雷格：对于接班，我最大的感受是，无论在非保险业务中，还是在保险业务中，伯克希尔确实拥有一批出类拔萃的经理人。接班得以顺利进行，与沃伦的推动密不可分，但也是因为我们的经理人本身就很优秀。他们对伯克希尔拥有强烈的归属感，他们认同伯克希尔的文化，希望伯克希尔成功。这些优秀的经理人是伯克希尔的财富。谢谢。（掌声）
WARREN BUFFETT: Thank you. Yeah. What Greg is talking about is they really wanted more direction in some cases than I gave them. You know, I mean, I just sat there reading the Wall Street Journal or whatever, and Greg is. You know, one way or another, there are more than 24 hours in his day, and I just don’t know how he covers the ground. He does, but he knows more about the people.
**
巴菲特：我的管理风格是放手，有时候，从格雷格那里，高管们能得到更多实际的帮助和指导。我的管理方式就是坐在办公室读《华尔街日报》(The Wall Street Journal)，格雷格则不同。格雷格的工作效率特别高，我不知他怎么做到的，他的一天好像不止 24 小时。格雷格与我们的经理人非常熟悉。**
We got the same feeling in terms of judging the attractiveness of businesses and making capital decisions and that sort of thing. He’s willing to work. I mean, I, you know, I, you know, and I couldn’t get as much done anyway. You know, what I could do in a couple of hours, you know, may take 8 hours now. I just don’t read as fast and everything. But it’s working very well.
在判断生意好坏方面，在资本配置方面，格雷格和我的看法一致。格雷格年富力强，正值当打之年。我已经老了，不中用了。以前 2 个小时就能做完的工作，现在 8 个小时也做不完。阅读速度比年轻时差远了。我虽然老了，但接班已经安排好了。
And this place, if anything happened to me, it would be working extremely well the next day. I don’t get any phone calls. You can actually. We can. We can rig something up so we got some answering machine that people think I’m still around, you know, or something.
就算哪天我走了，第二天伯克希尔照常运转。我现在也接不着电话了。甚至可以在电话里设置个语音留言，装成我还活着，也不会有人发现。（笑声）
So, anyway, that’s. That’s much, much less than you’d learn in business school, but that’s the way we do it at Berkshire.
总之，我讲的没商学院讲的那么高深，但我们伯克希尔有我们的做法。
Okay. Station eight.
好的，下面请第 8 区提问。
问题 16：只要善于寻找，印度肯定有好机会
QUESTIONER: Dear Warren, Greg and Ajit, thank you for having us. Your teachings have not only made us better investors, but more importantly, better people. Thank you for that. My name is Rajiv Agarwal, and I am from New Jersey. I run an India focused fund called Do Darshi India Fund. My question is related to India. Indian economy and Indian equities have done quite well in the last 5, 10, 20 years. It is the fifth largest economy and will be the third largest in the next few years. My question is, is Berkshire actively looking for opportunities in the Indian equity market and what will allow you to buy anything meaningful there? Thank you.
**
问题 16：沃伦、格雷格、阿吉特，你们好。谢谢你们举办此次盛会。你们不但教我们投资，还给了我们很多关于人生的启示。谢谢。我叫 Rajiv Agarwal，来自新泽西州。我管理一家投资印度的基金，DoorDarshi印度基金。我的问题是关于印度的。在过去 5 年、10 年、20 年里，印度经济增长迅速，印度股市气势如虹。印度现在是全球第五大经济体，几年之后，将上升到全球第三。请问伯克希尔是否关注了印度股票市场？在什么情况下，伯克希尔将在印度做出大笔投资？谢谢。**
WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. Well, that’s a very good question. And obviously India, you know, I’m sure there are loads of opportunities in a place like India. And the question is, do we have any advantage in either insights into those businesses or contexts, it will make possible some transaction that might what the parties in India would particularly want us to participate.
巴菲特：在印度，我相信一定有很多机会。问题在于，我们有什么优势。我们能看懂当地的企业吗？有合适的印度公司邀请我们参与交易吗？
Now, Berkshire is known, not like it’s known in the United States, but it’s known around the world. And, you know, our Japanese experience has been fascinating in that respect. So there may be an unexplored or unattended to opportunity in that area. I’m not the one to do it, but that may be something that in the future, it might be opportunities.
是否有合适的机会，这要交给伯克希尔新一代的接班人评估了。伯克希尔声名远播，我们的声誉已经从美国走向了世界。最近，我们在日本做了投资，其中，伯克希尔的声誉发挥了很大的作用。印度可能有适合我们的机会，我不行了，这项工作要交给将来的伯克希尔管理层了。
There are opportunities. The question is, does Berkshire have some kind of advantage in actually pursuing those opportunities against, particularly against people that are using other people’s money, that where they get paid based on assets managed or something of this sort. I mean, there are plenty of people in the game who are buying and running businesses that do not really have our philosophy. I mean, they’re going to get rich no matter what happens, and their payment may be based on how much they buy rather than what they buy.
机会肯定有，但伯克希尔未必能竞争得过别人，特别是那些拿着别人的钱投资的人。拿别人的钱投资，管理的资金量越大，拿到的薪酬越高。很多基金，它们为什么要收购一家公司，它们买下来之后怎么经营，它们的做法和我们伯克希尔完全不一样。很多掌管基金的人旱涝保收，不管买基金的人赚不赚钱，他们作为基金经理一定是赚大钱的。规模越大，赚得越多，业绩是其次。
So we’ll see how the next management plays the game out at Berkshire. Fortunately, you don’t have too long to wait on that. Generally, I feel fine, but I know a little bit about actuarial tables, and I just. Well, I would say this. I shouldn’tbe taking on any four year employment contracts like several people doing in this world in an age where you can’t be quite that sure where you’re going to be in four years.
很快，新一代管理层将登上舞台，他们将带领伯克希尔寻找新的机会。我身体很好，但是我对寿险精算中的生命表略有了解。这么说吧，一个人年事已高，四年后是否健在都不知道，还去签四年的聘用合同，那就不应该了。（掌声）
Okay. But you’re absolutely right about, if you were energetic, had some way to become a buyer or a party that people particularly wanted to do business with. Japan was great, and India could be great, but India and Japan aren’t the same. I mean, I don’t adapt myself terribly well to different cultures, and some people are really good at it, and almost anybody’s better than I am. But I stumbled into one or two, but that could happen in act two of Berkshire Hathaway.
印度肯定有好机会，只要善于寻找，只要遇到合适的合作伙伴，是能找到的。在日本，我们找到了好机会。在印度，也可能有好机会。印度和日本又不一样。不同文化之间存在差异，有的人善于接受新的文化。我不行。对我来说，文化障碍很难跨越。我只是偶然在外国碰到了一两个机会。将来，在伯克希尔·哈撒韦的第二幕中，新一代管理层可能会在外国发现更多机会。
Becky.
贝琪，下一问题。
问题 17：伯克希尔已安排好未来 20 年的接班问题
BECKY QUICK: this is a question from Rafael DePino from Spain. Berkshire has grown tremendously thanks to, and among other things, its architect, Mr Munger, and you, its general contractor, were all tremendously thankful to you for taking us along the way. We are aware that both of you and many others have spent an enormous amount of time ensuring Berkshire’s culture provides a solid footing on which to grow the building. You also currently have a very talented bench of what we may label as subcontractors. Mr Abel, Mr Jain, Mr Combs, and Mr Weschler. However, for a long time, you’ve had the advantage that talented subcontractors have wanted to work with a once in a generation architect and general contractor.
**
问题 17：这个问题来自西班牙的 Rafael DePino。伯克希尔取得今时今日的成就，在很大程度上归功于总设计师芒格先生、总建筑师巴菲特先生。有你们的带领，与你们同行，是我们所有股东之幸。我们知道，你们尽心尽力地培育伯克希尔的文化，为伯克希尔打牢发展的根基。我们也知道，如今的伯克希尔人才济济，包括阿贝尔先生、贾因先生、康姆斯先生、韦施勒先生，他们将继续为伯克希尔这座大厦添砖加瓦。长期以来，仰仗巴菲特先生和芒格先生的美名，大批人才纷至沓来，愿意为伯克希尔效力。**
How do you envision Berkshire will overcome the loss of said advantage when the contractor bench needs to be renewed again? And what are potential renovation works in this great building that may necessitate a new architect?
WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah, well, that’s a great question, which Charlie and I obviously talked a lot about over time. And of course, Berkshire, to the extent it remains the sort of entity that it is, will not need to attract people very often. It would be absolutely crazy for anybody, for our board of directors to ever pick anybody to run this business that thought, you should retire at 65.
巴菲特：这个问题问得很好。关于伯克希尔的接班问题，我和查理谈过很多次。伯克希尔的业务非常稳，这可以保证我们的管理层同样具有稳定性，用不着频繁更换。伯克希尔的董事会负责挑选未来的领导者，我们有一个标准，任何打算 65 岁就退休的人，直接排除。
It may be that they should retire the next day when you learn what they’re really like managing something, or it may turn that you want to keep them around till they really start being affected by old age. Which hits different people at different times, but it hits everybody eventually. It’s very likely if the directors, and it’s very tough, because they will be acting against conventional wisdom, which is always difficult.
不称职的管理者，不能让他干到退休，应该马上让他走人；优秀的管理者，不能让他退休，一定要把他留住，直到他真的老了才放他走。人的衰老有快有慢，最终谁都有老去的一天。但是，对于优秀的管理者，一定要多留，能留多久，就留多久。我们的董事会肩负着重大任务。我们选择领导者的标准不囿于流俗。 跳出俗套绝非易事，但我相信，我们的董事会能做到不走寻常路。
But I think we’ve got the group on that, and they will not have to make a decision very often. If they pick the right CEO, that’s 99% of the job of the directors. And if they. The other 1% is, do you have a good method to correct it if you’ve made a wrong decision? And that’s extremely hard to do in our present system.
选择合适的领导者很难，好在我们的董事会用不着经常选。只要选对一次，董事会就完成了任务的 99%。剩下的那 1% 在于，如果选错了，董事会要想办法换人。按照当前美国的董事会制度，更换公司的领导者非常难。
It’s not impossible, but it’s just not something that happens. It’s too good a job to be a director, to try and throw over somebody, particularly if you can use the money from directorships and you want to be on other boards and everything. We do not have a perfect system in terms of boards or directors at all. And it’s. It doesn’t operate at all, well, I shouldn’t say at all, but it doesn’t operate as people may think. It generally operates.
不是说换不了，但是阻力重重。担任上市公司的董事是一个美差。试想，一位董事，他能拿到袍金，他需要用这笔钱，而且还希望被推荐到其它公司当董事，怎么可能指望他把公司的首席执行官赶下台？在这方面，美国上市公司的董事会制度存在缺陷。董事们不可能轻易得罪首席执行官。更换不称职的首席执行官没那么容易。
We’ve really got the problem solved for the next 20 years unless something untoward happens. And if something untoward happens, then. Then the directors need to find, probably within our own organization, somebody that they’ve got confidence in to maintain the special advantages we have over another 20 years period. There’s various things that are low probabilities, but you still have to think about them, and we are in that position now.
未来 20 年的接班问题，我们已经安排好了，除非发生什么意外。真发生意外的话，我们的董事会就要行动起来，找到一位新的领导者，很可能是从伯克希尔内部寻找，带领我们再走 20 年。很多事情发生的概率很小，但不能不考虑在内。总之，伯克希尔已经准备好了。
Now, if you asked me whether, if something happened to Greg today, everybody says, don’t travel on the same plane. The thing to do is not travel in the same auto. Planes don’t go down that often. Autos crash all the time. I’ve seen all these corporate policies on that, which are kind of crazy when you think about the real risk.
万一格雷格明天发生意外，怎么办？有些公司规定，高管不能同时乘坐一架飞机。在我看来，这样的规定没什么道理。飞机坠毁的概率很小，车祸倒是经常发生。不同时乘坐一辆汽车才对。
But in any event, Greg is going to have to tell the directors about what if something happened tomorrow. He has to tell the directors about what should be done if anything happens to him. And that’s not an easy thing to do, and I don’t have - well, it will be his decision, and then the director’s really to decide whether he’s made the right one, but he will make the right one. And what you really have to hope is that you get lucky on how long managers stick around. I mean, you might need three in the century, and you might need six or seven, but the answer is you need a little luck, and you need some break in the mortality tables.
言归正传，格雷格会告诉董事会，万一他遭遇意外，谁来接替他。做这样的安排，并不容易。我不参与其中，选择谁，由格雷格自己决定，并最终由董事会决定。我相信格雷格会做出正确的选择。但愿今后的伯克希尔领导者待机时间超长。在这个世纪之内，可能需要三个领导者，也可能需要六个或七个。未来的领导者任期越长，对股东越有利。
But we’ve got an entity that if you really aspire to be a certain kind of manager, of a really large entity, there’s nothing like it in the world. So we’ve got something to offer the person who we want to have. It’s sort of like Charlie said about marrying the best person that will have you. Well, we’ve got something that the right person would want to marry, basically, in terms of Berkshire.
伯克希尔是一家超大型公司，对于志存高远的经理人来说，伯克希尔正是他们施展才华的舞台。我们寻找优秀的领导者，我们也能为优秀的领导者提供用武之地。正如查理所说，谈恋爱是双向选择，你看上人家，人家也得看上你才行。伯克希尔秀外慧中，我们与贤明的领导者可谓佳偶天成。
And if we get the wrong person, then the directors have to do something about it, and that probably won’t happen. But it’s always a contingency, a possibility, I should say. Greg, having been put on the spot like that, you don’t have to name anybody now, but I’m sure the crowd would love it and make news.
如果将来的伯克希尔领导者不称职，董事会必须采取行动。需要换人的情况，基本不会发生，但我们必须把所有情况考虑在内。我们一直在谈接班人的问题，格雷格，你的压力很大吧？公众一定很好奇，新闻媒体也在关注你，他们非常想知道你会指定谁做接班人，好在你现在用不着公开。
GREG ABEL: Well, the only thing I would add, Warren, is, and it’s really how the comment started, was around culture. The culture we have at Berkshire and that being our shareholders, being our partners and our managers of our business, having that ownership mentality, that’s never going to change and that will attract the right managers at every level. So I think, as Warren said, we have a very special company in Berkshire, but it’s that culture that makes it special, and that’s not going to change.
格雷格：沃伦，我只想说一点。正如提问者所说，伯克希尔的文化是它的魂。在伯克希尔，我们的经理人始终把股东视为合伙人。公司属于股东，我们的经理人也是公司的主人翁。伯克希尔的文化永不褪色，将始终把志同道合的经理人凝聚在一起。如沃伦所说，伯克希尔是一家超大型的公司，我们之所以发展到这么大的规模，是因为我们有独具一格的文化。伯克希尔的文化将继续引领它不断向前。（掌声）
WARREN BUFFETT: Okay, station nine. I’m never sure where nine is.
巴菲特：好的，请第 9 区提问。
QUESTIONER: Hi, I’m Sherman Lam, a Berkshire shareholder, and I work for family office in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Just really happy to see you, Warren and the team. And where I come from, you’re a hero. And both you and Charlie have positively transformed mine and many, many other Malaysians and Southeast Asians lives, not only financially, but also in how we navigate our lives and relationships. Thank you very, very, very much.
WARREN BUFFETT: Thank you. Thank you. That makes us feel good.
**
问题 18：您好，我叫 Sherman Lam，是伯克希尔的股东。我在马来西亚吉隆坡的一个家族办公室工作。沃伦，见到您很荣幸。在马来西亚，您是很多人的偶像。您和查理对许多马来西亚人、东南亚人的生活产生了积极影响，包括金钱方面，也包括人生观、价值观方面。**
QUESTIONER: Question is, what have your team’s greatest learnings been on business, capital allocation, stock picking and portfolio allocation throughout the COVID-19 pandemic period over the last five years? And, Warren, appreciate it if you can get your views, as well as your representations on Ted and Todd, as well as directly from Greg and Ajit, too, on their respective businesses.
我的问题是这样的。请问在新冠疫情三年中，在过去五年中，在经营、资本配置、选股、投资组合配置等方面，你们获得的最重要的经验是什么？沃伦，请您谈谈您的看法，也希望您代表泰德和托德说几句。我也想请格雷格和阿吉特回答这个问题。谢谢。
WARREN BUFFETT: Thank you. Yeah, I don’t think I want to give individual appraisals, but really what you’re doing is in terms of capital allocation, which is my job, I don’t go out and sell insurance policies or anything of the sort.
And you represent a group of shareholders like we do represent. We are totally clear on our mission. And, you know, it may be that other people don’t agree with them, but I would say that in a great many places, you know, I just don’t agree with their mission.
I would say that, for example, that anybody that wants to retire at 65 would be disqualified from being CEO of Berkshire. They might get retired the next day if they were the wrong person. But there’s just certain things we don’t want, and we’re well fixed now. And that the odds are very good, but far from certainty that that takes care of the next 20 years. But you have to provide for the contingency. And there are several people on the board that know what I would do on that, but it’s up to Greg. But if Greg and I go at the same time, then you’ll move into making another decision.
例如，在伯克希尔，盼着 65 岁就退休的人不适合担任我们的首席执行官。不称职的人，别等到 65 岁，第二天就别干了。有些事，我们就不想像一般的公司那么做。现在，我们的接班工作已经安排好了，运气好的话，未来 20 年将平稳发展。但是，我们必须做好应对意外情况的预案。我们已经安排好了，真出现意外，在伯克希尔董事会中，有几位董事知道该怎么做。我希望格雷格平安健康。万一我和格雷格一起没了，伯克希尔董事会将启动紧急预案。
There are a few people who know my thoughts on that, but the job of the director is then to come up with the right CEO, and the right CEO can’t make a terrible business great. Tom Murphy, who was the best, he was the best business manager I’ve ever known. And Tom Murphy, you know, he said the real key was buying the right business. And now Murph brought a million other attributes to it after that. But, you know, Charlie said, what was this? He had a saying on that.
我已经向几位董事会成员面授机宜。伯克希尔的董事会将挑起重担，选择合适的首席执行官。无论首席执行官多能干，公司的生意不好，也白搭。汤姆·墨菲是我一生中见过的最优秀的企业管理者。汤姆·墨菲说过，收购的生意好，管理者的工作才做得好。墨菲强调好生意的重要性，但他的管理才能让好生意如虎添翼。
But basically, we could have brought in Tom Murphy and told him his job was to run the textile business, and it would have done a little bit better, but it still would have failed. And one of the reasons I stuck with the textile business as long as I did was that I liked Ken Chase so much, and I thought he was a terrific guy, and he was a very good manager. If he’d been a jerk, you know, we’d have quit the textile business much faster, and we’d have been better off.
就拿一家纺织厂来说，把汤姆·墨菲请来，或许能多支撑一段时间，最后还是难逃破产的命运。当年，我迟迟不愿退出纺织生意，主要是舍不得管理纺织生意的肯·切斯 (Ken Chace)。他人品好、业务能力也强。如果肯·切斯品性恶劣，我就不会拖那么久，早把纺织生意关了。
So the answer was for him to get in the TV business, like Murph had done and had supported. You know, Murph figured that out early, and he started with a pathetic operation, which was a VHF in Albany, New York, competing against GE and everything. And he was operating out of a home for retired nuns, and he only painted the side that faced the street. He had one car dashing around town, and he called it news truck number six. But from that, he built an incredible company, and he built it because he was the best manager I’ve ever met. But beyond that, he was in a good business. And the key will be to find another Tom Murphy and then hand them a bunch of good businesses, and he or she will know what to do with it.
像肯·切斯这样有才干的经理人，应该去管理好生意才对。就像墨菲一样，他进入了广播电视行业，靠广告赚钱。墨菲入对了行。一开始，他在纽约州奥尔巴尼市 (Albany, New York) 经营 UHF 电视台。他的电视台很小，面对的是 GE 等强大的竞争对手。他的公司总部设在一所养老院。为了省钱，他只把办公楼朝向大街的一面刷了油漆。他的电视台只有一辆小破车，他称其为“六号新闻转播车”。凭借他杰出的管理才能，他把这样一家微不足道的小公司做成了大都会/美国广播公司 (Capital Cities/ABC)。墨菲的经营能力是一方面，很重要的另一方面在于，他做的是好生意。我们从中可以得到一个启示：找到一位像汤姆·墨菲一样优秀的经理人，让他管理伯克希尔的众多好生意。这就是成功的配方。
Now, that’s not as precise as you would get in most companies, but you really can’t get more precise than that. I mean, you can have committees and management consultants and everybody. But it wasn’t a management consultant that hired Tom Murphy. And I forget whether he was doing. His sales volume was a couple thousand a week at first. And then as soon as he hit, that was his goal. It got to 2000, he says. Now my goal is 3000. He kept doing that, surpassed all these people, like CBS and ABC, that only had the world by the tail.
我们的方式比较模糊，不像大多数公司那么精确。模糊的正确胜过精确的错误。大多数公司又是设置专门的委员会，又是从外部聘请顾问公司。汤姆·墨菲这么优秀的经理人，是顾问公司找来的吗？具体的数字，我记不清了，只能大概举例说明。刚开始做广播电视生意时，第一个星期，墨菲把销售目标定在了 2000。达到了 2000 之后，墨菲就把目标提升到 3000。就这样，他步步向前，很快超越了哥伦比亚广播公司 (CBS)、美国广播公司 (ABC)。
And it was just a wonderful lesson in life to get. Just to be able to view something like that. I learned an awful lot from what he said to me, but I just learned by watching somebody like him operate. I mean, it’s like watching a great golfer, a great tennis player, then you ought to learn something about the kind of swing you’re trying to develop or something of sort.
看到汤姆·墨菲一步步走向成功，从他身上，我学到了很多。从与他的交流中，我学到了许多。看他经营企业，我也学到了很多。看他经营企业，就像看一位伟大的高尔夫球运动员、一位伟大的网球运动员打球，他们的每次挥杆，一举手一投足，都让人凝神静气、认真观看、领悟模仿。
So that’s not a great answer for you. But so far, it’s worked, and I think it works. I’m very sure it works with Greg, and it’s up to people in the future when, you know, I’m underground or wherever they put me, to really make a decision every 20 years or something like that. On average, it’s the right decision, but correct it if it turns out to be the wrong decision. That’s what a board of directors is for. And we’ve got the people on the board that really understand that responsibility. They take it seriously, but they don’t take themselves too seriously, and so therefore, they don’t necessarily wanna do a lot of things just to look busy.
我说的比较宽泛、模糊，大家可能希望得到更具体的回答。但是，我相信我们的接班方案没问题。格雷格，我很放心。将来等我作古了，伯克希尔的董事会只需每过 20 年左右选一次领导者。我们的董事会基本上能做出正确的选择，一旦选错了，董事会将采取行动换人。这是我们的董事会职责所在。我们的董事会成员一定不负所托。我们的董事深知肩上责任重大，他们不带任何私心杂念，只是默默守护伯克希尔。他们不会为了刷存在感而无事生非。
And they aren’t using us as a stepping stone to get on other boards, but we’ve got people that really believe in what we’re doing, and they’re the ones that are going to have to make this place work. And if they got lucky on Greg’s mortality, they can do just what everyone else did and go to sleep for 20 years or so and then make another decision. And Berkshire has every tool in the world available to be what it is now and continue to be what it is now.
他们也不谋求以伯克希尔为跳板进入其它公司的董事会。我们的董事与我们价值观一致。伯克希尔的未来，全靠他们维系。如果格雷格健康长寿，我们的董事会可以高枕无忧，只需 20 年后再做一次选择。以伯克希尔今时今日的实力，足以基业长青，实现平稳发展。
I mean, we’ve gotten from 20 million of net worth to 570 billion. And, you know, we. There aren’t as many things to do, but we can do a few big things better than anybody else can do. And there will be occasional times when we’re the only one willing to act. And at those times, we want to be sure that the US government thinks we’re an asset to the situation and not a liability or a supplicant, as the banks were in say in 2008 and 2009, they were all tarred with the same brush. But we want to be sure that the brush that determines our future is not tarred. And I think we’re in the. I don’tthink anybody’s got a better position to do it than Berkshire.
我们的净资产，从最初的 2000 万美元，积累到今天，已经高达 5700 亿美元。我们的规模大了，机会少了，但是当一些少有的大机会出现时，或许没人能比伯克希尔做得更好。大机会真出现时，可能只有伯克希尔愿意挺身而出。到那时，我们希望美国政府把我们当成中流砥柱，而不是累赘或负担。就像 2008 年、2009 年，大型银行名誉扫地，夹着尾巴向政府求救。我们希望，将来无论到什么时候，伯克希尔始终是一块金字招牌。在大机会中敢于出手、有能力出手的，非伯克希尔莫属。（掌声）
Becky?
贝琪，下一问题。
问题 19：没有好机会，就不要出手去投
BECKY QUICK: This question’s from Johan Halen, who writes, you’re sitting on $168 billion of cash, which he told us today is now more than $182 billion. His questions are, one, what is Buffett waiting for? And two, why not at least deploy some of it?
**
问题 19：这个问题来自 Johan Halen。他问道：伯克希尔坐拥 1680 亿美元现金。刚才，您说了，一季度末，我们的现金和短期国债为 1820 亿美元。请问沃伦在等什么？为什么不拿出一部分进行资产配置？**
WARREN BUFFETT: Well, I think that’s pretty easy to answer. I don’t think anybody sitting at this table has any idea of how to use it effectively. And therefore, we don’t use it. And we don’t use it now at 5.4%. But we wouldn’t use it if it was. If it was at 1%. Don’t tell the Federal Reserve that, but prefer it.
巴菲特：这个问题很简单。我们台上坐着的这三个人，都不知道往哪投，所以我们就不投。现在利率 5.4%，我们不投。即使利率降到 1%，我们该不投还是不投。没有藐视美联储的意思啊，只是我们认为现在持有现金更合理。
We only swing at pitches we like. And if anybody tried to swing at every pitch, or felt that because they hadn’t swung at a pitch for the last two pitches, they ought to swing at the third one or something like that. There are times, and obviously.
就像打棒球一样，只有对手扔过来的球好打，我们才挥棒击打。不能来个球就打，或者放过两个球没打，手就痒痒了，投资不是那么做的。
But I would say this, I would not like to be running 10 billion now. 10 million. I think we could. I think Charlie or I could earn high returns on, because I think there are just a few things that happen on a very, very small scale.
这么说吧，现在给我 100 亿美元，我都觉得很难投资。1000 万美元，还可以。管理 1000 万美元的资金，查理和我能实现较高的收益率，一些比较小的机会，还是能找到的。
But if we had 10 billion, I wouldn’t basically see many more opportunities than we found now. It’s true that something like Japan, we could have done, if the company had had a 30 or 40 billion, and we’d make. We’d have had great returns on equity. But if I saw one of those now, I’d do it for Berkshire. It isn’t like I’ve got a hunger strike or something like that going on.
管理 100 亿美元的话，就基本找不到合适的机会了，更何况伯克希尔这么大的资金量。前几年，我们投资了日本的五家公司，这是一笔较大的投资。只有市值在 300 亿、400 亿美元以上的公司，才可能成为我们的投资对象。大家觉得好像我在绝食一样，其实不是。真有好机会，我能不为伯克希尔投资吗？
It’s just that things aren’t attractive, and there’s certain ways that can change, and we’ll see whether they do.
事情不是一成不变的，现在没有好机会，不代表将来没有， 咱们拭目以待吧。
Okay. Station ten.
好，请第 10 区提问。
问题 20：产经纪人提供的服务物有所值
QUESTIONER: Mr Buffett, this is an incredible meeting that you host every year. My name is Sean Cawley. I am a real estate agent with Berkshire Hathaway Home Services in Arizona and California. My mother, Cindy, my brother, and my two sisters all sell real estate with Berkshire Hathaway Home Services for many years. We love being a part of the Berkshire family, and along with the 70,000 other agents that sell real estate for the company.
**
问题 20：巴菲特先生，首先，感谢您每年举办如此盛大的股东大会。我叫 Sean Cawley，是伯克希尔·哈撒韦家庭服务公司（Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices）的一名房地产经纪人。我的母亲、哥哥、两个姐姐都是伯克希尔·哈撒韦家庭服务公司的老员工了。能成为伯克希尔大家庭的一份子，作为公司 7 万名房地产经纪人中的一员，我深感荣幸。**
Mr Buffett, Home Services of America recently settled our class action lawsuit, regarding commissions, for $250 million last week. This dollar amount is about 100 million more than Keller Williams’ 166.5 million, more than Anywhere Real estate, which is Better Homes and Gardens and Coldwell Banker.
巴菲特先生，上周，在关于中介佣金的集体诉讼中，家庭服务公司被判赔偿 2.5 亿美元。我们的赔偿金额比凯勒·威廉姆斯房地产经纪公司 (Keller Williams Realty) 多了 1 亿美元，比美好家园房地产经纪公司多了 1.66 亿美元。
As a realtor with Berkshire Hathaway home services in multiple markets, and a shareholder who’s been coming to this meeting for 15 straight years, that’s one of the reasons I got involved with real estate, is because of this meeting. What are your thoughts on buying and selling a home in light of this recent settlement?
我是伯克希尔·哈撒韦旗下家庭服务公司的员工，也是伯克希尔的股东，已经连续 15 年参加股东大会。正因为参加了伯克希尔股东大会，我才与伯克希尔结缘，并进入伯克希尔的房产经纪公司工作。请您结合最近的这笔赔偿，谈谈您对房产经纪业务的看法。
And maybe ask the note to Greg and Ajit, too. Would you consider a Berkshire agent when buying your next home?
另外，我还想问一下格雷格和阿吉特，你们需要换房吗？需要的话，伯克希尔旗下的经纪人乐意效劳。（笑声）
WARREN BUFFETT: I don’t buy them that often, as some people have noted. I certainly would consider him but I say the probability of that happening is low. And I really appreciate the fact you’ve joined up with us, but I’m going to. In terms of the settlement, I mean, Greg kept me informed, but I turned it over 100% to him. So, Greg, you want to talk about it?
巴菲特：我本人很少买房。有需要的话，我会请你帮忙。不过，基本上不太可能。还是谢谢你加入我们。至于赔偿这件事，格雷格和我讲过，但我让他全权处理了。格雷格，你来回答一下吧。
GREG ABEL: Sure. So, thank you for you and your family for being an agent and working for our company, Berkshire Hathaway Home Services. I think there’s a few questions in there. One, there’s no question the industry will go through some transitions because of that settlement. Ours and the every other major player in the industry settled.
格雷格：好的。谢谢你和你的家人为伯克希尔·哈撒韦家庭服务公司做出的贡献。你提到的赔偿，这里面涉及几个问题。首先，毫无疑问，由于此次判决，整个行业必然发生一些变化，包括我们以及其它同行，大家都会受到影响。
The National Association of Realtors settled for more than 400 million. So effectively everybody was swept up in that settlement, and it did set the grounds for both home services and for the industry to move forward. There’s a lot of changes that happen in, or are being proposed associated with that settlement.
全美房地产经纪人协会 (The National Association of Realtors) 被判赔偿 4 亿美元。此次判决席卷整个行业，必然影响我们的家庭服务公司以及整个房地产中介行业的经营方式。很多变化已经发生，或者正在酝酿之中。
The one thing that I think you hopefully would absolutely agree with, the real estate agent, is still an important part of these transactions. It’s the one time in our lives where we make these massive investments, and having that counsel and guidance is critical. And that’s really what our business and those other businesses rely on. How the commission structures change and how it’s negotiated, which is really what the settlement was. It was no longer that a buyer would automatically pay a commission agent to the to the selling agent. That now has to be negotiated. That’ll impact things, but I think the realtors will continue to be a very important part of that. And I think home services and the industry will remain very relevant.
但是，有一点，我相信不会变：在房产交易中，经纪人将仍然发挥重要作用。买房是一件人生大事，要花一大笔钱。在买房的时候，房产经纪人提供的咨询服务不可或缺。这是房产经纪生意赖以生存的基础。此次判决，主要是改变了佣金的分配方式。原来，买方直接向卖方经纪人支付佣金。现在，双方的佣金必须经过协商确定。佣金的分配方式将发生变化，但房产经纪人的重要作用没有变。我们的家庭服务公司以及整个房产中介行业的基本面不会变。
And then the only thing I would share with our shareholders on a broader basis is that obligation resides with Home Services and can be met by Home Services. And that was an important condition because they were also pursuing Berkshire and Berkshire Hathaway Energy. And we said, you can pursue us separately, but that settlement will reside with Home Services and be an obligation of that. And they decided the ultimate settlement.
在此，我想向各位股东说明一下。这笔赔偿将完全由家庭服务公司承担，而且家庭服务公司完全具备承担这笔赔偿的能力。在此次集体诉讼中，法院也起诉了伯克希尔·哈撒韦以及伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源。我们向法院表示，你们可以起诉伯克希尔、伯克希尔能源，但是最终的赔偿肯定完全由家庭服务公司独自承担。现在，法院已经做出了判决。
And. We’ll go forward from there. So, Warren, any other comments?
我们将一如既往地把我们的生意做好。沃伦，您有补充的吗？
WARREN BUFFETT: Well, yeah, I’ve sold two houses in the last, well, the last 93 years, and I’ve bought one that I still have, but I obviously bought the other two, and I have not negotiated down the commission, even though the last one sold for 7 million or something like that.
巴菲特：我今年 93 岁了。我买过三次房，卖过两次房。最后一次买的房子，现在还住着。这几次买房、卖房，交给经纪人的佣金，我一点没讲价。包括最后一次卖房，房产总价 700 万美元，我也没在佣金上讲价。
People do negotiate down commissions to some extent, but I can tell you, I’ve looked at the figures and I think the system has really worked out very well. When I got out of school, they had what they called FSBO for sale by owner and so I’ve been involved to some degree in watching the whole system operate, and I know what our average agent makes. I know how long they work on things sometimes that don’t materialize.
我知道，为了少交佣金，很多人和中介讲价。其实，我心里有一本账，我觉得佣金的价格是合理的。大概在我大学毕业的时候，出现了一种“房主直卖”的方式，房主直接卖房，不需要中介参与。我观察了有中介和没中介两种模式的差异，我也很清楚我们的房产经纪人的收入水平。我知道，很多时候，房产经纪人付出了大量时间和精力，最后却没有成单。
I don’t think we’ll end up with a better system, but it’s up to Greg and the people at Home Services we work through here. But I like our agency group, and we’ve got a very large number of real estate agents, and I’ve encouraged the expansion we’ve done in the real estate brokerage business. It was just one or two operations when we bought Berkshire Hathaway Energy, and we really built up quite a company. And I think it’s a very fundamental business. You need help - 90% of the people need help in buying a home or selling one. And I’ve watched it operate all my life and been involved with lots of people who have been in the business. But there was a decision in court, and I told Greg to handle it, whatever seemed best to him.
其实，现在的房产经纪模式比较合理。今后如何发展，就看格雷格和家庭服务公司的了。伯克希尔的房产经纪业务是好生意，我们拥有数量众多的房产经纪人。我鼓励伯克希尔的房产经纪业务做大做强。当年，收购伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源时，房产经纪业务只有一两家小公司，如今伯克希尔家庭服务公司已经做得很大了。房产经纪业务是一个与民生息息相关的生意。90% 的人在买房、卖房时离不开房产中介的服务。几十年来，我见证了房产经纪业务的发展，我认识很多做房产经纪这一行的人。没想到法院起诉了我们，我让格雷格全权处理。在我看来，格雷格办的很好。
And I’m quite. I’m perfectly happy with the way we’ve handled - I think I’m surprised at the decision, but we get surprised in decisions in the insurance business lots of times. I mean, just think of the various things we faced, and when 911 came along, we never thought something like that could happen, but it happened, and then we didn’t know what was one event or more events. If they closed down the New York Stock Exchange, a bunch of brokers. Well, all kinds of people lose their jobs or lose their income for a while. Is that one event or multiple events? There’s all kinds of things come up in business, and we just play the ball wherever we find it. And I was surprised by the decision. Was it in Missouri?
最终法院的判决，让我感到出乎意料。其实，在保险生意中，让人出乎意料的法院判决，我们见过很多了。以 911 为例，祸从天降，恐怖袭击造成了巨大损失，是一次事件，还是多次事件，根本说不清楚。受恐怖袭击影响，纽约股票交易所关闭，一些交易所工作人员暂时失去了收入。一次事件波及范围很广，对于保险公司来说，到底应该按一次事件赔付，还是按多次事件赔付？
做生意总是要面对种种不测，我们只能见招拆招。此次佣金赔偿的判决，让我感到出乎意料。是密苏里州判的吧？
GREG ABEL: Missouri, yes.
格雷格：对，密苏里。
WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. But we’ve gotten surprised by some other decisions, and we’ll keep doing sensible things as we move forward. Greg, do you want to.
巴菲特：嗯。法院判决让我们出乎意料也不是一次两次了。我们将继续把我们的生意做好。格雷格，还有什么补充的吗？
GREG ABEL: No, I think the only thing I would add back, maybe to how the model has changed. And he asked one. Yes, we’ll always, I can’t speak for Ajit, but we’ll always use Home Services agents. But it’s interesting. I have bought a home abroad. I lived over in the United Kingdom, in Newcastle, running our utility over there.And it is a completely different experience to buy a home outside of the US. Our agents take great responsibility for the whole transaction.
**
格雷格：没了。关于房产经纪的佣金模式，我想讲一个我的个人经历。刚才提问者问了，我可以肯定地说，我买房的话，会始终选择家庭服务公司的经纪人。我在国外买过房。有段时间，我住在英国的纽卡斯尔 (Newcastle)，管理我们的一家公用事业分公司。在英国买房的体验，与在美国买房完全不同。我们的经纪人全程跟到底。**
In the US, they put, as Warren said, time and capital at risk to ensure the transaction closes. And when you do close, they make sure what you bought, you actually what you thought you were purchasing, you end up with, and that’s not the way it is always around the world. And there are more affordable models, but it’s the old saying, you get what you pay for. So I think our real estate agents still provide incredible value within our business, and as Warren touched on it, it’ll survive. The form may be a little bit different, but there’s no question it’ll continue to thrive.
如沃伦所说，在美国，房产经纪人投入大量时间和精力跟单，直到交易完成为止，确保客户买到自己满意的房子。这可比一些国外的房地产经纪人强多了。在美国，也有更便宜的买房方式。俗话说得好，一分钱一分货。我们的房产经纪人提供的服务物有所值。如沃伦所说，房产经纪生意与民生相关，能一直做下去。 佣金的分配方式可能会变，但房产经纪生意能一直做下去。
WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah, we still will want to buy real estate brokerages at the right price, and I hope we’re bigger in the industry ten years from now and 20 years from now than we are currently. And I did sell a house for 7 million. I did not negotiate the 6% down, and I feel I got my money’s worth and then some. And I’m cheap by nature, so it isn’t that I’m careless about it. I just. I got my money’s worth.
巴菲特：是啊。价格合适的话，我们愿意继续收购房产经纪公司。希望 10 年、20 年之后，我们的房产经纪业务越做越大。刚才讲了，我卖过一个房子，总价 700 万美元。6% 的佣金，我没讲价。我是一个吝啬的人，不是我不在乎这笔钱，而是我认为这笔钱花得值。
And so let’s move on to becky.
好的，请贝琪继续提问。
问题 21：自动驾驶能否减少交通事故？
BECKY QUICK: This question’s for Warren and Ajit. It’s from Jeff Oyster. As a Berkshire and Tesla shareholder, I would like to hear your thoughts on the potential financial effects to GEICO, assuming Elon Musk delivers on his fully autonomous driving goal. On Tesla’s most recent earnings call, Elon said, if you’ve got, at scale, a statistically significant amount of data that shows conclusively that the autonomous car has, let’s say, half the accident rate of a human driven car, I think that’s difficult to ignore. Assuming Elon succeeds in reducing accidents by 50% versus human drivers, wouldn’t auto insurance rates fall to reflect the reduced underwriting risks, thereby adversely impacting GEICO’s revenues and float and perhaps margins, too?
**
问题 21：这个问题请沃伦和阿吉特回答，提问者是 Jeff Oyster。**
他说：我既是伯克希尔股东，也是特斯拉股东。埃隆·马斯克要实现“完全自动驾驶”，这是否会影响盖可保险的业绩？在特斯拉最近的电话会上，马斯克表示，有足够的统计数据表明，与人类驾驶汽车相比，自动驾驶的汽车可以将事故率降低 50%。如果马斯克成功了，事故减少，车保的价格是否会下降？盖可保险的收入、浮存金和利润率是否会受到影响？
WARREN BUFFETT: Well, yeah. Well, let’s just take the extreme example. Let’s say there are only going to be three accidents in the United States next year for some crazy reason that anything that reduces accidents is going to reduce costs. But that’s been harder to do than people have done before. But obviously. But if it really happens, the figures will show it, and our data will show it, and the prices will come down. There have been a lot of people talk about doing that in the past. I mean, General Motors used to be very big in the insurance business, and when Uber first started, they used some firm, which now is, I think Ajit will confirm they’re close to bankruptcy now, aren’t they? Because of taking things on at the wrong prices. Is that true?
**
巴菲特：我们可以举一个极端的例子。假设明年全美国只发生三起交通事故，事故减少，保险公司的赔付成本随之减少。其实，发展到今天，想要显著减少交通事故的数量，已经不像从前那么容易了。交通事故的数量真下降了的话，我们会从数据中看出来，保费的价格将随之下调。过去，很多人要颠覆车险行业。通用汽车在保险生意上砸了不少钱。优步 (Uber) 也曾试图进军车险行业。优步采取了与一家保险公司合作的方式。我没记错的话，那家保险公司差不多破产了，因为它们的定价有问题。阿吉特，我说的没错吧？**
AJIT: Yep. Yeah. Yeah.
阿吉特：没错。
WARREN BUFFETT: Insurance always looks easier than it is, and it’s so much fun because you get the money at the start, you know, and then you find out whether you’ve done something stupid later on. But it’s a very tempting business when somebody hands you money and you hand them a little piece of paper. But really knowing whether you’re - I mean, if accidents get reduced 50%, it’s going to be good for society and it’s going to be bad for insurance companies’ volume. But, you know, but for society is what we’re looking for so far.
巴菲特：嗯。保险生意看起来容易、做起来难。做保险生意，先收钱、后赔付。把钱拿到手之后，过一段时间，才知道自己是不是亏了。开一张保单，就能换来真金白银，很多人禁不住诱惑。如果事故率降低 50%，那是社会之幸。保险公司的营收当然会下降。我们希望交通事故减少，希望社会越来越好。
You might find it kind of interesting. I mean, the number of people killed per 100 million passenger miles driven. I think it actually, when I was young, it was like 15, but even post world war two, it only fell like seven or thereabouts and Ralph Nader probably has done more for the american consumer than just about anybody in history because that seven or six has now come down to under two. And I don’t think it would have come down that way without him. There have been some kind of fluke figures of what people did during the pandemic, which are quite interesting because they, they didn’t drive immediately, they didn’t drive as many miles, but they drove more dangerously, didn’t they? Is that right, Ajit?
咱们对比几个数字。车辆每行驶 1 亿英里的死亡人数，在我出生的 1920 年代，这个数字是 15 人。二战后，降到了 7 人左右。1960 年代，在拉尔夫·纳德 (Ralph Nader) 的推动下，政府颁布了一系列关于汽车安全的法律，汽车厂商也开发了更多安全功能。得益于拉尔夫·纳德的努力，汽车安全程度明显提升，现在每 1 亿英里的死亡人数已经从 7 人降到了 2 人以下。疫情期间，路上行驶的车辆少了，人们的驾驶行为却更危险了，交通事故死亡人数竟然有所上升。阿吉特，是这样吧？
AJIT: Yeah. Yeah. So the point I want to make in terms of Tesla and the fact that they feel that because of their technology, the number of accidents do come down, and that is certainly provable. But I think what needs to be factored in as well is the repair cost of each one of these accidents has skyrocketed. So if you multiply the number of accidents times the cost of each accident, I’m not sure that total number has come down as much as Tesla would like us to believe. Tesla has been toying with the idea of writing insurance directly or indirectly. And so far it hasn’t really sort of been much of a success. Time will tell. But I think, you know, automation just shifts a lot of the expense from the operator to the equipment provider.
阿吉特：是的。特斯拉认为，凭借自动驾驶技术，它可以把交通事故的数量降下来，这完全有可能。但是，还有一个因素需要考虑在内，即每起事故的维修成本也大幅上升了。用事故数量乘以每起事故的维修成本，总保险成本未必像特斯拉想的那么低。特斯拉考虑做保险生意，不是一天两天了，它试过自己做，也试过与别的公司合伙。到现在为止，还没成什么气候。未来能成吗？我们拭目以待。在我看来，实现汽车自动驾驶，最大的变化在于，损失成本的主要承担者将发生变化，从汽车驾驶人变成提供自动驾驶技术的汽车厂商。
WARREN BUFFETT: Okay, we’re getting close to noon when we’re going to break for lunch. I just want to tell everybody that I would appreciate it very much if they will get in their seats and be ready at 1:00 when we reconvene, because we will have another very short little movie and we’ll just have a little explanation of something that I think will be of interest, certainly of interest to me. So I would like to. We will break promptly at 12, and I would like everybody to really make an attempt to be in their seat and quiet at 1:00 and if you can’t do that, if you’ll wait a few minutes and watch in the halls and all that. But we do not want to be seating people and have people milling here at 1:00 and just like a play in New York or something. It’ll take a few minutes and only a few minutes to cover what. We’re going to it at 1:00 but we don’t want to be seating people during that period. But now let’s. We’ll go on till 12:00 and then we’ll have a break until 01:00 and we will go to station 11.
巴菲特：好的，快到午休时间了。有一个小小的要求，请各位注意。请各位在 1 点之前在座位上做好。我们将在 1 点准时播放另一个短片。播放完短片，我会简单讲几句话。我们将在 12 点准时休息。1 点之前，请各位务必就坐并保持安静。1 点钟还没进入会场，请在大厅中观看。我们不希望影片已经播放，人们还在找座位或来回走动。现在我们继续问答，12 点结束。请第 11 区提问。
问题 22：气候变化的问题太难解决
QUESTIONER: My name is Humphrey Liu, and I am from Charlottesville, Virginia. I asked the question last year and wish to pose it again. It can be considered a follow up. There is something to be said for traditions.
**
问题 22：我叫 Humphrey Liu，来自弗吉尼亚州夏洛茨维尔。去年，我请教了您一个问题，今年我还想再问您一遍。我想知道您的最新看法。**
It is the same question, but it is a changing and different world we are in. Looking at global trends, it increasingly does seem that zero emission vehicles may have finally reached the cusp of massive adoption. Do you see any opportunities in this space, either in specific vehicle manufacturers or in related technologies? As an addendum, I will note that Berkshire has very relevant interests in energy, pilot, flying J and BYD.
问题还是去年的问题，只是现在的世界又发展变化了。从全球趋势来看，零排放的新能源汽车终于突破临界点，即将大规模普及。请问你们是否在新能源汽车领域发现了投资机会？是否有新能源汽车制造商或研究新能源相关技术的公司值得投资？据我所知，伯克希尔已经投资了领航旅行中心 (Pilot Flying J) 和比亚迪公司。谢谢。
WARREN BUFFETT: Thank you. Yeah, well, we will. I hope you’re right. And massive adoption has been sort of a moving target so far, but I hope we get there.
But Berkshire would not be, I don’t think that we bring any special talent to that field. You’ve got vehicle manufacturers, and I would certainly not know how to pick the winners in an industry like that. But I’ll be delighted if there are some winners. But don’t count on us foreseeing who the winners will be, and don’t count on us for predicting when something will happen.
在新能源汽车方面，伯克希尔一无所长。众多汽车厂商你追我赶，在竞争如此激烈的行业，我真不知道谁是最后的赢家。如果有汽车厂商胜出，我们乐见其成。但是，我们真没能力预测谁是赢家，也没能力预测新能源汽车何时大规模普及。
It obviously has been a moving target so far, and it is an incredible problem that society faces, and it may be that governments are not very good at solving it for a while.
面对气候变化，我们只能被动应对。气候变化是威胁人类社会的严重问题，从过去这些年来看，政府的应对措施不尽如人意。
All of climate change, it’s got a terrible problem just in the fact that the United States particularly has been the one that’s caused the problem the most. And then we’re asking poorer societies to say, well, you’ve got to change the way you live, because we live the way we did. But that really hasn’t been settled yet. It’s a fascinating problem to me, but I don’t have anything to add to how you really slice through the world.
气候变化的威胁很大，美国是全球累计排放温室气体最多的国家。我们自己过上了优裕的生活，却让发展中国家改变生活方式，要求发展中国家加大减排力度。这样解决不了问题。我关注气候变化，但我真不知道如此重大的全球问题，该如何解决。
When I was born in 1930, there were just essentially 2 billion people in the world population statistic. Now there’s 8 billion. Now, if you’d asked anybody in 1930, if you take the 50 smartest people in the world and you said, what’s the optimum population for the world. When you’re 93 years old, they would have not said 8 billion.
1930 年，我出生的时候，全世界只有 20 亿人。现在，全世界有 80 亿人。1930 年，即使是当时最聪明的人，恐怕也想不到，93 年之后世界会有 80 亿人。
There wouldn’t be anybody close to it. But we did it. Now we’re reaping some of the consequences of having done that, and we got the benefits in the United States. I’m exaggerating here to some extent, but the developed world basically got it. And then we’re telling a whole bunch of other people that we want them to change the way they live because of the way we lived. So we will see what happens with it. But that’s a problem that is very, very, very hard to solve among a couple hundred countries. And I really don’t have anything to contribute on it.
人口增长到 80 亿，一些严重的问题摆在了我们面前。世界发展到现在，得到最大甜头的是美国，是发达国家。我们自己过好了，却不让别人过好。全世界 200 多个国家，气候变化的问题太难解决了。在这方面，我说出不来什么有用的东西。
05. 卡萝尔的小秘密
And now I’ve got instructions from the thing, the monitor in front of me. I would like to introduce one person here that has, you all know, because she’s been here so many times, but my friend Carol Loomis, who is now, well, she’s going to be 95 on June 25. You can send presents, care of our office.
我面前有一个屏幕，屏幕上出现提示了。现在，我要介绍一个特别的人。她是伯克希尔股东大会的常客，大家应该对她很熟悉，她就是我的朋友卡萝尔·卢米斯。6 月 25 日，卡萝尔将迎来 95 岁生日，大家别忘了送卡萝尔生日礼物。
And Carol has edited the Berkshire annual report since 1977.
从 1977 年起，卡萝尔就开始为伯克希尔的致股东信做编辑润色工作。（全场掌声，卡萝尔站起致意）
There we are. And there’s, there are two points I’d like to mention. Every year I give Carol a little item for a bracelet that is a replica of the front page of the report that year and their different colors and all of that sort of thing. And so she now has, what, since 1977, what, 47 of them. I think she’s putten on each one. But I’ve always wondered if she put them all on one arm, whether one arm would now be four or five inches longer than the other. But I’m sure she foresaw that.
在这里，我想说两件事。第一件事，每年我送卡萝尔一个手镯作为编辑股东信的纪念品，手镯上有一个小卡片，上面印着当年年报的封面，五颜六色的。从 1977 年起到现在，她已经有 47 个纪念手镯了。她应该左右手各戴 10 个，戴在一个手上肯定戴不下。
But I want to reveal one other. Well, I want to ask one more question while Carol was here, because I’m sure most everybody in this audience grew up like I did, knowing that Ty Cobb’s lifetime batting average was 367. I mean, he’s the leader among everyone, and it may be that that record is never broken. And Ty Cobb, 367’s immortal.
第二件事，我想公开一个小秘密。趁卡萝尔在场，我想问她一个问题。像我这个年纪的人，一定是看棒球长大的。我们知道，在棒球明星泰·柯布 (Ty Cobb) 的职业生涯中，他创造了 367 的打击率。这是棒球打击率的最高记录，至今没人能打破。泰·柯布的 367 已经封神了。
But Carol has a distinction that probably most of you don’t know, but she dated Ty Cobb.
卡萝尔有个小秘密，大家可能不知道，泰·柯布请她吃过饭。（笑声）
And Carol was officed at 6th Avenue and 50th street in the Time Life building. And NBC was right across the street in, in Rockefeller center. And the quiz shows became the hit of tv. And Carol, being the kind of person she is, walked across the street at lunchtime and went on the quiz show of the late 1950s. And they gave her the, they gave her the questions regarding baseball. And Carol answered them all correctly, of course, she was encyclopedic on all kinds of things. So she knew all the answers. And she proceeded. And she was single at the time. And she proceeded back to her office at fortune.
当年，卡萝尔的工作地点位于第 50 大街、第 6 大道的时代生活大厦 (Time & Life Building)，与坐落于洛克菲勒中心的全国广播公司 (NBC) 只有一街之隔。那正是电视的黄金年代，知识问答节目收视率火爆。1950 年代，一次午休，天生聪慧的卡萝尔穿过大街，来到电视台，参加了一次知识问答。主持人问的全是关于棒球的问题，卡萝尔对答如流。她聪明的头脑如同一部百科全书。卡萝尔答对了所有问题，并成功晋级。当时，她还是单身。录完节目，卡萝尔就回到《财富》杂志的办公室工作了。
And at some point she got a phone call from, sounded like a fairly young man in Georgia. And he said, my uncle is Ty Cobb, and he would like to take you to lunch at 21. And so Carol went to lunch with Ty Cobb at 21. And I think he subsequently had one more lunch. And then she decided to call it off.
后来，她接到了一个电话，是一个年轻人从佐治亚州打来的。电话里说，“我的叔叔泰·柯布想请你去 21 俱乐部 (21 Club) 吃饭。”于是，卡萝尔应邀前往。后来，泰·柯布又请她吃了一次饭。再后来，卡萝尔就不去了。
But those of you who follow baseball may have noticed that in the 1990s, they found that the statistics had been faulty when Ty Cobb played. And that he actually only batted 366, that there were a couple of bad bats that didn’t count.
如果你是像我一样的棒球迷，你可能知道，在 1990 年代，人们发现泰·柯布的统计数据有误。他的击球次数少算了。因此，泰·柯布实际的击打率应该是 366。
So the real question I want to know from Carol, and I think she should maybe tell us, is that would she have dated Ty Cobb if she not - I mean, I know she wouldn’t have. I know she wouldn’t have dated Ty Cobb if his batting average had been 300 or something like that. But where was the cut off point at which she would have told Ty Cobb to stay in Atlanta and forget about coming up to New York? And if Carol would. If anybody has a microphone, Carol would care to express herself on that question.
如果泰·柯布的击打率只有 300，卡萝尔应该不会答应和他一起吃饭。我希望卡萝尔告诉我，是不是因为泰·柯布是棒球击打率记录的保持者，才答应和他一起吃饭。我想问一下卡萝尔，泰·柯布的击打率降到多少，就不会答应和他一起吃饭？请把麦克风递给卡萝尔。
It’s the unanswered question that I’ve had and all inquiring minds have had, and only she knows the answer.
这个问题，我一直很好奇，一直萦绕在我的脑海里，所以特别想借此机会向卡萝尔问个究竟。
And she’s with her daughter. She married a wonderful guy, John Lewis. And Barbara’s. Barbara’s with her. I’m sure Barbara’s been always wanting to ask this question, but it’s kind of tough when you’re in the family. But I’m sort of a non anxious guy. Older, in front of a lot of people. Carol.
坐在卡萝尔旁边的是她的女儿，芭芭拉。芭芭拉嫁给了一位优秀的男士，约翰·刘易斯 (John Lewis)。估计芭芭拉也想问这个问题，只是她不好开口。（芭芭拉以手掩面）我脸皮厚，当着这么多人的面都好意思问。卡萝尔，能告诉我吗？
卡萝尔：即使他的击打率降到 0，我也会接受邀请。
WARREN BUFFETT: Or are we gonna have Barbara’s guests?
巴菲特：芭芭拉，你说呢？
BARBARA: Either one will. She would have been happy to go either.
芭芭拉：我母亲说了，与他的击打率无关，无论击打率高低，都会接受邀请。
CAROL: Right.
卡萝尔：是的。
BARBARA: Thank you.
芭芭拉：谢谢你，沃伦。（掌声）
WARREN BUFFETT: Carol is the best business writer. She comes from a town of called Camp, Missouri. I don’t know, around a thousand, probably. She never took an accounting course. And she ended up becoming the best business writer in the United States.
**
巴菲特：卡萝尔是最优秀的财经作者。她来自密苏里州的科尔营 (Cole Camp)，一个只有 1000 人口的小镇。她没在学校学过会计课，却成为了全美国最优秀的财经作者。**
You know, she didn’t want to be an editor, actually. I mean, she could have done other things at Fortune, but she just plain liked writing business stories. And like I say, that nobody came close to her.
在《财富》杂志，卡萝尔有很多升迁机会，但是她始终舍不得她钟爱的财经写作。卡萝尔凭借自己的努力，取得了了不起的成就。
And she started from scratch. But in 1977, I asked her to edit my report, and she turned out to be just a good an editor as she was a writer. And all the way through this year, including this year, Carol has edited the Berkshire report. And to the extent anybody enjoys reading them. Let’s give a hand to Carol.
1977 年，我请卡萝尔编辑和润色伯克希尔的致股东信。卡萝尔文笔了得，做编辑更是一把好手。从 1977 年一直到今年，伯克希尔的致股东信都经过了她的润色。有了卡萝尔的帮助，股东们获得了更好的阅读体验。我们把掌声送给卡萝尔。（掌声）
06. 股东露丝向医学院捐款10亿美元
Okay. And I’ve been told to show a video right before you go to lunch, because it’s only 30 some seconds, and then we’ll talk a little bit about more about it when we come. So if we’ll dim the lights, we will have showing what a Berkshire shareholder did when she sold us a billion dollars worth of stock the other day. And you’ll meet somebody that I hope is, I know she is the prototype. She may have more zeroes, but she’s the prototype of a good many Berkshire Hathaway shareholders. It’ll be the first thing we talk about when we come back. But some of you may have noticed whenever it was a few weeks back, when Ruth Gottesman gave $1 billion to Albert Einstein to take care of all of us, and Ruth doesn’t like a lot of attention drawn to herself.
工作人员提示我，让我在午休之前播放短片，因为短片只有 30 秒钟的时间。我们先看短片，下午回来再谈。请把灯光调暗。前段时间，一位伯克希尔股东向我们出售了她持有的伯克希尔股票，变现 10 亿美元。在短片中，我们将看到她把这 10 亿美元花在了什么地方。短片中这位伯克希尔股东是我们很多其他股东的一个缩影。她可以积聚更多财富，但是她没有那么做。
But here’s how they felt at Albert Einstein when they announced that Ruth Gottesman had just made a decision to take care of all of the costs of education at Albert Einstein, and it’s going to be in perpetuity. So let’s just show the film.
几周前，有一则新闻，露丝·戈特斯曼 (Ruth Gottesman) 向阿尔伯特·爱因斯坦医学院 (Albert Einstein College of Medicine) 捐款 10 亿美元，用于支付该医学院未来所有学生的学费。（掌声）露丝很低调，丝毫不求名。当她宣布向阿尔伯特·爱因斯坦医学院捐款，未来该医学院所有学费全免的时候，现场的反响如何，请看短片。
VIDEO: I’m happy to share with you that starting in August this year, the Albert Einstein College of Medicine will be tuition free.
WARREN BUFFETT: And that’s why Charlie and I have had such fun running Berkshire. She transferred a billion dollars to other people. She happened to do it with Berkshire stock, and, you know, they offered to rename the school after and everything like that. But she said, Albert Einstein. That’s a pretty good name to start with. So there’s no ego involved in it, no nothing.
巴菲特：查理和我悉心经营伯克希尔，有这样的股东，我们深感欣慰。（掌声）露丝捐了 10 亿美元。她捐出了伯克希尔的股票。校方提出更改校名，用露丝·戈特斯曼的名字给学校命名。露丝说，“阿尔伯特·爱因斯坦这名字多好，不要改。”她没有一点私心，毫不求名。
She just decided that she’d rather have 100 plus, closer to 150 eventually, of students be able to start out debt free and proceed in life. And she did it happily, and she did it without somebody asking, you know, name it, you know, put my name on for all four sides of neon lights, and I salute her. So let’s all have lunch, and we’ll come back and talk a little bit more about that. Thanks.
她就是想让医学院的 150 名学子毕业后能轻装前进，不必背负沉重的债务负担。她是发自内心的行善，根本不想把自己的名字刻在大楼上之类的。露丝·戈特斯曼，我向您致敬。（掌声）
午休时间到了，下午回来我再讲两句。谢谢。
07. 下午开场：伯克希尔个体股东以己之力，回馈社会
WARREN BUFFETT: So please take your seats. We’re going to finish at three, so the sooner we start, the sooner more chance we’ll have to talk about various questions you may have. I just like to follow on, however, with that film we showed just before we left for lunch, because it says something about Berkshire.
There are all kinds of public companies and wealthy public companies throughout America. And there are certainly cases where in one family, somebody has made a very large amount of money and is devoting it to philanthropy, or much of it to philanthropy, such as the Walton family would be the number one thing in Walmart. And certainly Bill did the same thing, Bill Gates did the same thing at Microsoft. But what is unusual about Berkshire is that a very significant number of Berkshire shareholders located all over the United States, not just in Omaha, but the number of different Berkshire holders who have contributed $100 million or more to their local charities, usually with people not knowing about it. I think it’s many multiples of any other public company in the country. It’s not more multiples than those put a whole lot into philanthropy, and I don’t know the details of the family, but clearly there’s a huge sum of money that the Walmart family, I’m sure, has done all kinds of things philanthropic and will continue to do it.
美国有很多财力雄厚的上市公司，有的上市公司的控股股东为某个家族，他们积聚了大量财富，并且将财富用于慈善事业，例如，沃尔玛的沃顿家族，还有微软的比尔·盖茨也可以归为此类。伯克希尔是一家上市公司，也拥有巨额财富，我们的不同之处在于，我们的股东遍布美国各地，不仅仅是在奥马哈，大量伯克希尔股东，他们通过单独的个人行为，默默地捐赠了 1 亿美元以上的资金，支持本地慈善事业的发展。（掌声）以个人股东捐款达到 1 亿美元以上的案例计算，伯克希尔远超任何其它上市公司。按捐赠总额计算，我们或许比不过其它上市公司的大股东家族。具体的数字，我不了解，但我相信，沃顿家族向慈善事业捐赠的资金数额巨大，而且他们将继续致力于慈善事业。
But I don’t think you’ll find any company where a group of shareholders who aren’t related to each other. So many of them have done something along the lines of what Ruth did a few weeks ago, just to exchange a little piece of paper that they’ve held for five decades, and they’ve lived well themselves. They haven’t denied their family anything, but they don’t feel that they have to create a dynasty or anything, and they give it back to society. And a great many do it anonymously. They do it in many states to some extent. We see some concentration of it in Nebraska, because generally, when you’re giving away a lot of money, they call it, in the philanthropic world, they call it absorption capacity. And the truth is, it’s very hard to give away a billion dollars to $10 at a time to people who are needy or something of the sort. And so large institutions have this absorption capacity, which tend to be universities or colleges or that sort of thing. And some philanthropies are much more imaginative than others. But the one thing I’ve never.
**
我想说的是，没有一家上市公司像伯克希尔这样，在股东群体中，素不相识的个体股东纷纷做出了同样的善举。 就像露丝几周前做的那样，他们把自己持有几十年的股票换成现金，捐了出去。我们的这些股东，他们过着优渥的生活，他们没亏待自己的家人。但是在他们看来，巨额财富不应留给子孙后代，而应回馈社会。我们的很多股东做慈善不留名，在内布拉斯加州捐赠的比较多，但全美各地都有伯克希尔股东行善的身影。谈到巨额资金的捐赠，慈善界有个术语叫“吸收能力” (absorption capacity)。要捐出 10 亿美元，不可能一次给每个需要帮助的人 10 美元。高等学府等大型机构具备“吸收能力”。我们的很多股东向高等学府捐款，也有通过其它方式回馈社会的。**
Well, most of them want to do it anonymously, so I can’t tell their specific stories. But I have to say one thing that was astounding is that the same day we bought a billion dollars worth of Berkshire class A stock from Ruth. So that. And I guess we were actually buying it from the school at that point because he’s just given them. So the transaction was with them. But Mark Millard in our office bought a billion dollars from them, but he also bought $500 million worth of stock from somebody else that nobody will ever have heard of and in a different state.
大多数伯克希尔股东选择匿名捐赠，因此我不知道他们捐赠的具体情况。特别巧的是，就在我们买入露丝那 10 亿美元伯克希尔 A 类股当天，我们的财务总监马克·米勒德 (Mark Millard) 还从另一位股东手中买入了 5 亿美元的股票。这位股东来自另一个州，他不希望透露姓名，我只能说这么多。
And I won’t elaborate beyond that, but we have had a very significant number of people, and there’s more to come. And obviously, they had to be people that came in early, or their parents did, or their grandparents did, but they’ve all lived good lives. They haven’t denied themselves anything. You know, they have second homes, and they. But they generally, in fact, I would say almost universally, they - people knew them in the community, everything. But they’ve used what they accomplished, what they saved.They denied themselves consumption. That’s what savings are, is consumption deferred. And they’ve given, they’ve financed everything all over the country. And usually they like to do it anonymously.
总之，大量伯克希尔股东将自己的财富捐赠给慈善事业。显然，他们能积累巨额财富，一定是很早就加入了伯克希尔的老股东，也许他们的父母或祖父母就是股东。他们的生活富足，并没有亏待自己。所谓储蓄，就是延迟消费。他们不花钱，把钱攒下来。最后，他们把自己一生积累的财富捐出去，深藏功与名。
I outed my sister when I wrote about her in the annual report, but Bertie’s here today. I told her she should wear a T-shirt or something, said no solicitors allowed or something, but they just do it. And it’s really both, Charlie and I felt it’s really fun to work for a group of people like that rather than for index funds or for hedge funds or whatever it may be. I mean, you’re just seeing what people actually - it sort of restores your faith in humanity, that people defer their own consumption within a family for decades and decades, and then they could do something like. And they will. I think it may end up being 150 people to pursue different lives and talented people and diverse people to become a dream of being a doctor and not have to incur incredible debt to do it, or whatever may be the case. There’s a million different examples.
在致股东信中，我经常提到我的妹妹伯蒂 (Bertie)，她今天也来到了现场。我和她说过，她应该穿一件 T 恤衫，在上面写上“请勿索捐”。找她捐款的人太多了。能为你们这样的股东工作，查理和我很自豪。与管理指数基金或者对冲基金相比，我们的工作更有意义。伯克希尔股东的善行让我们感到温暖，让我们重新燃起对人性的信念。我们的股东延迟消费，数十年如一日，最后，取之于社会，用之于社会。就像露丝所做的，在她的支持下，150 位学子得以安心求学，为了成为医生而努力，不必再为学费贷款而忧心。像露丝这样的股东，伯克希尔还有很多很多。
And I want you to know that you’re a unique, actually, group of shareholders among public companies, as far as I know, in terms of the way you’ve deferred your own consumption while living fine to help other people. And it takes a lot of years, but it can really amount to something very substantial. And what Ruth did, was roughly my age, she looked at a little piece of paper which actually was a claim check on the output of others in the future. And she said instead of the output being for her, that the output would be for a continuing stream of people, for decades and decades and decades to come, that we’re having a different life in the pursuit of becoming doctors than they otherwise would have.
在这里，我想对大家说，在众多上市公司中，你们是一个特殊的股东群体。没有哪家上市公司的股东，像你们这样延迟消费、回馈社会。通过几十年的时间，你们积累了大量财富。露丝与我是同龄人。她原来持有的是伯克希尔的股票。股票是一张凭证，握在手里，将来可以获取别人生产的产品或提供的服务。露丝不想自己去消费，她更愿意把这笔钱留给医学院未来的一批又一批莘莘学子，在他们学医的路上助他们一臂之力。
And Berkshire has been, of course, her husband Sandy contributed substantially to Berkshire’s record. Sandy was a wonderful partner to have. So it was both input by him, and then there was deferred consumption by his family. And then there was ultimately this final gift to Albert Einstein.
露丝的丈夫是桑迪·戈特斯曼 (Sandy Gottesman)。桑迪为伯克希尔的发展做出了很大的贡献。早年间，我们一起投资，有过愉快的合作。这笔捐赠归功于桑迪和露丝以及他们的家人。
And like I say, the same day, there’s only 500 million it’ll go to in a different way. But it’s happening all over, and I don’t think any, any companies like that. So I just want to tell you that it’sinspiring to work for a group of shareholders.
And Becky, go to it.
贝琪，请继续提问。
08. Q&A（
BECKY QUICK: All right, the next question comes from Slavin Vucelbrot. As CEO, will Mr Abel be in charge of the portfolio of common stocks that Mr Buffett has been managing, or will this function be exercised by Mr Combs and Mr Weschler? As investing could be defined as the discipline of relative selection, can major capital allocation decisions, such as large acquisitions, be separated from the common stock selection process?
**
问题 23：好的。这个问题来自 Slavin Vucelbrot。我们知道，伯克希尔的股票投资组合一直由巴菲特先生管理。等到将来阿贝尔先生出任首席执行官，股票投资组合由谁管理？是阿贝尔先生吗？还是康姆斯先生和韦施勒先生。投资是一个通过对比选择机会的过程。在资本配置决策中，将大型收购与投资股票分割开来，可能并不合适。**
WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah, I would say that decision actually will be made when I’m not around, and I may try and come back and haunt them if they do it differently. But I’m not sure the Ouija board will get that job done. So that job, I’ll never know the answer on whether it get covered, but I feel very comfortable about the fact that it will be made by a board, that they’ve got loads of brainpower, they’ve got a dedication to an unusual institution, and they will figure things out. But I would say that if I were on that board and were making the decision, I would probably, knowing Greg, I would just leave. I would leave the capital allocation to Greg.
巴菲特：我想这个决定要交给未来的董事会了。无论如何，伯克希尔的资本配置方式和风格不会变。我不知道将来董事会如何决定。我们的董事会成员富有经验和智慧，他们高度认同伯克希尔的价值观，他们知道该怎么做。假如我是董事会成员，让我做这个决定，以我对格雷格的了解，我将把资本配置工作交给格雷格。格雷格对各行业的公司有深刻的理解。
And heunderstands businesses extremely well. And if you understand businesses, you understand common stocks. I mean, if you really know how business works, you are an investment manager. How much you manage, maybe just your own funds or maybe other people. And if you really are primarily interested in getting assets under management, which is where the money is, you know, you don’t really have to understand that sort of thing.
能看懂公司，就能看懂股票。真正理解了公司，做好投资不在话下。 管理的资金有大有小，可能是只管自己的钱，也可能是管别人的钱。有些基金经理，他们追求的是管理资产的规模，规模越大，他们赚的管理费越多。这样的人，他们的心思没放在研究公司上。
But that’s not the case with Ted or Todd, obviously. But I think the responsibility ought to be entirely with Greg. The responsibility has been with me, and I farmed out some of it. And I used to think differently about how that would be handled, but I think the responsibility should be that of the CEO. And whatever that CEO decides may be helpful in effectuating that responsibility. That’s up to him or her to decide at the time they’re running the money.
当然了，我们伯克希尔的泰德和托德绝不是那种基金经理。但是，我认为资本配置工作应该交给格雷格全权负责。以前，伯克希尔的资产配置工作，一直是我一个人在做。后来，我分出去了一些。现在我的想法变了，我觉得应该把资本配置工作交给首席执行官。由首席执行官全权负责可能更有利于资本配置策略的执行。资本如何配置，应该由首席执行官说了算。
So I would say that my thinking on that has developed to some extent as the sums have grown so large at Berkshire, and we do not want to try and have 200 people around that are managing a billion each of just doesn’t work. And I think that when you’re handling the sums that we will have, you’ve got to think very strategically about how to do very big things, and I think Greg is capable of doing that.
伯克希尔的资金规模今非昔比，如何安排未来的资本配置工作，我也重新进行了考虑。把资金分给 200 个基金经理，每人管理 10 亿美元，肯定是不行的。管理伯克希尔这么大规模的资金量，必须具备战略眼光，能抓住大机会。我认为格雷格有这个能力。
I think I’ve missed a lot of stuff in the past, so I’m actually wiser about doing that now. But I, you know, I would do it better this time around in 2008 and 9, if something akin to that happened. But it won’t be exactly like 2008 or 9, you can be sure of that. But you also can say that there will be times when having huge sums available extremely quickly.
过去，我错过了很多机会，也因此变得更有经验了。如果类似 2008 年、2009 年的场景重现，我肯定能做得更好。
Maybe it will be once every five years, probably be more like once every ten years or something. But as the world gets more sophisticated, complicated, and intertwined, more can go wrong. And there’s no sense going through here exploring the possibilities of the different things that could happen.
也许是五年一周期，也许是十年一周期，将来肯定有危机发生的时候。到那时，手握重金的伯克希尔可以迅速出手。当今世界的复杂程度日益增加，各种因素相互交织，各种关系错综复杂，发生风险的可能性也随之增加。我们没必要在这里列举可能发生的各种风险。
But you do want to be able to act when it happens. And I think the chief executive should be somebody that can weigh buying businesses, buying stocks, doing all kinds of things that might come up at a time when nobody else is willing to move. It wasn’t that people didn’t have money in 2008. It’s that they were paralyzed. And we did have the advantage of having some capital and a willingness and eagerness, even, to act, and a government that, in effect, looked at us as an asset instead of a liability.
关键是风险来临时，我们要敢于出手。当风险发生时，各种机会涌现，别人不敢动弹，这时候是收购公司，还是买入股票，应该由首席执行官定夺。2008 年，人们兜里有钱，但他们被吓得石化了。当时，我们的优势立刻显现。我们有钱，敢出手、乐于出手，而且深得政府的信任。
And I think that all of those qualities will be even more important as our capital pile grows. So I think Greg may have even more fun than I had in a period when extraordinary things were happening and we were the logical place to go. You never know whether it’ll be next week, next year, next decade, but you won’t be, you know, it won’t be a century from now, that is for sure, and be more intertwined. It’s sophisticated. The world financial situation gets the more vulnerable it gets in a certain sense. It solves a lot of small problems, but it leaves it more vulnerable to large problems.
随着伯克希尔的资金规模增加，再次发生危机时，我们的优势将更加明显。将来，当危机出现时，格雷格力挽狂澜，可能有比我更精彩的表现。危机什么时候到来？谁都不知道。可能是下个星期，可能是明年，也可能是十年之后，但肯定不是 100 年之后。世界的联系更紧密了，各种关系更复杂了。可以说，在整个世界的金融体系中，风险点也越来越多了。更加紧密的联系，可以解决很多小问题，但也容易引发大危机。
Greg, does that bother you at all or not?
格雷格，你准备好了吗？
GREG ABEL: Without directly answering the question, I think there’s one important thing, is I think as we go through any transition, it’s important to know that the capital allocation principles that Berkshire lives by today will continue to survive, Warren. And I think that’s the thing I’d want to communicate, that we have our operating businesses, insurance, non insurance, we’re going to cap that. We’ll provide them the capital necessary to be successful and grow, if it’s appropriate. At the same time, we’re expecting return of capital from them when they have excess cash.
格雷格：我先不说自己准备的如何，我只想谈一点：在接班的过程中，伯克希尔今天恪守的资本配置原则将一直传下去。我们有众多子公司，包括保险业务、非保险业务，我们将为旗下的子公司提供充足的资金，同时要求各子公司实现合理的资本收益率。
And then, as we’ve discussed, or you’ve touched on always looking at potentially new businesses as a whole or in a piece, and as you’ve always highlighted, and I fully agree, it’s, we’ll always look at equities as we’re investing in a business, either 1% or 100%, but we’re looking at the business, we’re looking at the economic prospects of that business, how sustainable it is, and what it will look like ten years from now. And is our, the capital we originally put in at exponential risk, or where’s that risk set, that profile.
此外，如您所说，我们既可以收购整个公司，也可以通过买股票获得部分股权。您讲的，我完全认同，买股票就是买公司。无论是买 1%，还是买 100%，我们的眼中看到的都是公司。我们要研究公司的盈利能力如何、竞争优势能否持续、十年之后的前景如何。我们要判断单个一笔投资的风险，也要判断整个投资组合的风险。
And then, of course, and then we’ll obviously continue to always put excess cash in the safest investment there is in us treasuries, knowing we want to maintain that fortress of a balance sheet for two reasons. One, to act, but also to always protect our shareholders. We want to maintain the position Berkshire is in now, realistically for to ensure it endures.
WARREN BUFFETT: Well, when he says that, it makes me wish I’d stayed around to be number two instead of number one in this process over the years. It’s, you know, it doesn’t get more fun than what we’re doing, and we’re better positioned than ever before.
We’re not positioned though, however, to earn extraordinary returns versus what american business generally earns. I would hope we could be slightly better, but nobody’s going to be dramatically better over the next century. It gets very hard. It gets very hard to predict who the winner will be. If you look back, as we did a few meetings ago, as the top 20 companies in the world at ten year intervals, you realize the game isn’t quite as easy as it looks.
然而，我们的规模已经很大了，不可能继续取得远高于平均水平的资本收益率。只要略高于平均水平，我就知足了。未来一百年里，没有哪家公司能始终遥遥领先。谁将独占鳌头，难以预料。在 2021 年的股东大会上，我们对比了 30 年前后世界最大的 20 家公司，从中可以看出，没几家公司能经得起时间的考验。
Getting a decent result actually is reasonably, should be reasonably easy if you just don’t get talked out of doing what has works in the past, and don’t get carried away with fads, and don’t listen to people who have different interests in mind than the interests of our shareholders.
伯克希尔不可能继续获得超额收益，但实现良好的收益应该比较容易。只要未来的领导者不听谗言，坚持过去的成功经验，不跟风，不随波逐流，远离怀有私心之人，始终以股东利益为重，我们就能做到。
Okay, we’ll go to station number one.
好的，请第 1 区提问。
问题24：我们有个原则：只出一次价
QUESTIONER: Hello, Mr Buffett, my name is Tomo Drge. I’m from Dusseldorf, Germany. This is my first time out here in Omaha, so thank you for having us here. Today. So my question is directed to you, Mr Buffett and Mr Abel. In 2019, you reportedly made a bid for the IT distribution business, tech data, and commented that you understand its role as a middleman. I wonder if you could kindly elaborate on the criteria you look at when evaluating IT distribution businesses like tech data and their competitive position. Thank you.
**
问题 24：您好，巴菲特先生，我的名字是 Tomo Drge。我来自德国杜塞尔多夫 (Dusseldorf)。这是我第一次来奥马哈，感谢您举办此次盛会。我想向巴菲特先生和阿贝尔先生请教一个问题。2019 年，您参与竞购 IT 分销公司 Tech Data。有媒体报道，您表示，您了解 Tech Data 的生意，它是一家中间商。请两位详细讲一下，对于 Tech Data 这样的分销生意，应该从哪些方面分析，如何判断它们的竞争力？谢谢。**
WARREN BUFFETT: Well, we had some experience with distribution businesses, and we know their potential to a degree and their limitations. And, Greg, you were involved in that more than I was.
**
GREG ABEL: Yes.
格雷格：是的。
WARREN BUFFETT: I mean, that was a case where there had been a bid made and there was a go shop provision, and I think the management probably would have preferred that we buy it. And when we went in with a better bid, the original party raised their bid, and we never make the same offer twice, so. Greg, tell.
**
巴菲特：在 Tech Data 这笔交易中，开始时已经有一家公司出价收购。由于存在“竞价条款”(go shop provision)，管理层找到伯克希尔，希望我们把它买下来。我们给出了一个更高的价格。但是，最初的收购方随即提高报价。我们有个原则，只出一次价。于是，我们就放弃了。格雷格，你再讲讲吧。**
GREG ABEL: Yeah, so, absolutely. In 2019, we saw tech data as a unique opportunity. When we saw the other bid and the underlying value of that distribution business, we did. Warren and I were talking, others made the conclusion we should talk to management. We talked to the team. They were very interested in Berkshire being their long term owner, and we still saw good value in the opportunity. And we had a good understanding of distribution businesses.
**
格雷格：好的。2019 年，我们发现 Tech Data 公司这个机会不错。我们分析了这家公司的价值，也看到了另一家公司的出价。沃伦和我觉得可以和管理层谈谈。管理层表示，他们希望加入伯克希尔。我们也觉得这个机会值得投资。我们比较熟悉分销生意。**
We have TTI. It’s not exactly identical to Tech Data in that they’re very specific to the, who their customers are and who they serve and supply and who they purchase from. Because on the distribution side, it’s important to have that input coming in from folks who want their product. And, you know, it’s needed on the other side that there’s demand for it. And they had an excellent model.
伯克希尔旗下有一家子公司 TTI。TTI 公司与 Tech Data 公司不是完全一样，但生意的本质差不多。它们一头连着最终客户，一头连着上游厂商。它们与客户联系密切，了解客户的需求。它们是厂商不可或缺的合作伙伴，帮助厂商把产品销售出去。它们的生意模式非常好。提起 TTI 公司，沃伦经常讲它的创始人保罗的故事。
If you think of TTI, for example, that Warren talked about Paul many times and the person who founded this business. But it’s a unique business in that our revenues on that business is approximately $10 billion. The average part they sell is a little over nine cents. Ninety five billion parts go through their warehouse every, every year. But it’s a model that if you have the right people on both sides of the equation and you understand that, well, there’s, there’s a unique opportunity there. And, and that is something we saw in Tech Data.
TTI
公司很特别。它的营收将近 100 亿美元，但是它销售的每个零部件的平均价格只有 9 美分多一点。它每年卖出 950 亿个零件。分销生意，能把供求两端的工作做好，是值得投资的。我们认为 Tech Data 是一家合格的分销商。
And as Warren highlighted, we made our bid. Unfortunately, it was then topped by the original bidder and we moved on. But we thought very highly of it.
如沃伦所说，我们给出了报价，但最初的收购方随即加价，我们就不再参与了。我们仍然认为 Tech Data 是一家好公司。
Warren Buffett: We’ve probably seen at least five of them in aggregate, over the last three or four, five years. It’s not a business that you can dream about because it’s a decent business.
巴菲特：过去三四年，做分销生意的公司，我们至少看了五家。分销生意算不上梦寐以求的，可以说是中规中矩的。
But, for example, many of the items that the manufacturers just, they don’t want to tie up their capital. If you have, you know, a million plus skus, they go stock keeping units, it’s like selling jelly beans or something like that. And you do. You’re serving a purpose to a degree, but you don’t. You don’t really. It isn’t your product, in effect.I mean, you’re just a good system for the producer of the equipment to get it to the end user without tying up a lot of capital. Being in a business they don’t want to be in. We understand, but there’s no magic to it.
很多厂商，它们自己不愿让存货占用大量资金。它们不愿自己维护存货，特别是 SKU（最小存货单位 ）数量多如牛毛的情况下，更不愿意自己做这份差事。厂商不愿意做，经销商来做。经销商本身不生产产品，只是充当销售渠道。这样一来，厂商自己就用不着占用大量资金了。所以说，经销商干的是厂商自己不愿干的活。我们能看懂这个生意，但这个生意算不上一流的生意。
With TTI, you had a marvelous man running things, and when you get a marvelous person running something, to some extent, that’s selects for better people underneath. Greg and I went to Paul Andrews funeral a few years ago, and there were 300 people or so there, and there wasn’t one person that had to say something particularly nice, but stretched a little bit about the deceased. I mean, everybody. Paul Andrews was the real McCoy, and he was an amazing man. He behaved wonderfully with Berkshire. I mean, he wanted to do more for Berkshire than Berkshire would do for him. I mean, it was very simple. And you run into those people, as I say, you run into people that bend over backwards for us and then some bend over forwards. But that’s just the way it is in this world, and we’ve had quite a few that have been over backwards for us.
一提起 TTI 公司，我就想起它的创始人保罗·安德鲁斯 (Paul Andrews)。保罗是一位优秀的经理人。保罗优秀，他手下的人也非常能干。几年前，我和格雷格参加保罗的葬礼，现场 300 多人，大家对保罗的怀念深情而真挚。保罗·安德鲁斯是一位名副其实的正人君子。在与伯克希尔的生意往来中，他体现出了高风亮节。他给予伯克希尔的，远比伯克希尔给予他的要多。生活中，有人甘于奉献，也有人一味索取。幸好，伯克希尔遇到了很多像保罗这样的人。
The distribution business is not a wonderful business, but it is a business, and it’s a business that, if it’s big enough, it’s one we would look at and we would buy additional, and TTI makes some smaller acquisitions on its own all the time. I don’t even. I don’t even hear about them until I read the quarterly reports.
And so we. We want to build up. We want to build our businesses in every area that we operate, and we’ve got unlimited capital to do it. So we’re willing to have small acquisitions take place if they fit in with something we already have. But we’re not in the business of going out after small acquisitions, and if we did, we would. We just don’t have the people for it, and it wouldn’t move the needle anyway. At Berkshire, we may or we would have been happy doing the deal with the questioner asked about.
我们愿意把分销生意做大。伯克希尔旗下的所有生意，我们都希望能做大，我们可以提供源源不断的资金支持。我们的子公司，只要觉得合适，它们可以做小规模的收购。但是，在伯克希尔整个公司的层面，小规模的收购，不在我们考虑范围之内。 其一，我们没那么多精力；其二，对伯克希尔的整体业绩影响甚微。像 Tech Data 公司这笔收购，规模可以，能做成的话，我们会很高兴。
But if we don’t do it, you know, it just doesn’t make that much difference. We want to do it. If we do it, we’ll do it well. We’ll do it right. They’ll make the right decision. If they don’t, you know, we will find something else to do with the money in the end. And we can always buy a little more of TTI for you, the shareholders, by just buying in our stock, too.
GREG ABEL: Exactly.
格雷格：确实。
WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. Okay. Let’s see. We need Becky next, don’t we? Yeah, Becky.
巴菲特：好的，该到贝琪提问了吧？对，贝琪，请提问。
问题 25：只聚焦于当下的机会
BECKY QUICK: All right, Warren, earlier you talked about selling some of the apple shares in order to build up your cash supply. And I think it’s had a lot of people wondering where you see opportunities or what might be coming or market valuations. So I’ll ask this question from Foster Taylor. At the 1999 annual meeting, you mentioned that if you owned all of America’s 500 businesses, you would be making $334 billion while paying $10.5 trillion. You emphasize that this was not a good return on investment. Today, by my math, the S&P 500 has a market capitalization of around 44 trillion, with profits of around 1.45 trillion. This is a very similar return on investment to the 1999 levels. Do you see similarities in the market today and the 1999 levels?
**
问题 25：沃伦，上午，在回答为何卖出苹果股票时，您表示是为了增加现金储备。很多人想知道，您如何看待当前的投资机会，如何看待市场的估值。我挑选了一个来自 Foster Taylor 的问题。他问道：在 1999 年的股东会上，您说，如果把标普指数中的 500 家公司买下来，需要付 10.5 万亿美元，而一年的利润只有 3340 亿美元。您认为，这个投资收益率不合适。现在，标普 500 指数中的公司总市值为 44 万亿美元，一年的利润为 1.45 万亿美元。现在的收益率与 1999 年的水平不相上下。请问今天的市场是否与 1999 年相似？**
WARREN BUFFETT: Well, one thing has changed dramatically from. Well, from 1990. I misunderstood on the 1999, but there have been times in my life that I’ve been awash in so many opportunities that I could have invested everything by nightfall. And then there’s other times when the year goes, well, not in the early days, but now we just - we haven’t seen anything that makes sense that moves the needle.
巴菲特：现在和 1999 年不一样了。在我的投资生涯中，我见过好机会遍地都是的时候，我甚至可以在一天之内把子弹全部打光。我也有过，眼看着一年过去，没一个好机会的时候。在我投资的早期，从来没有找不到机会的时候。现在不一样了。我们已经很长时间没看到大象了。
Now, we’ve made small acquisitions during the year. Our companies have made acquisitions. And we. You know, Greg and I may talk about something that involves a $300 million purchase or something like that. And, you know, if it fits well enough, we do it.
And if our managers see things that fit them, we want to look at them, because our managers do not have necessarily the same equations in mind that we do. But there’s some managers which we would have just say, you know, whatever you decide to do. And then there’s other managers that would not know how to allocate capital, particularly, and that they don’t have to be able to be great capital allocators. If they happen to be great at serving customers and understand their own industry and all of that, they can be great managers. A good many of them are capital allocators and others are.
子公司的经理人有合适的收购目标，有时候我们要看一眼。毕竟，经理人更多从业务的角度考虑，而我们主要从投资回报的角度考虑。有些经理人懂资本配置，我们完全放权，他们做收购，不需要我们审批。其他经理人，资本配置不是他们的专长。他们善于了解客户的需求和经营企业，这就足够了。需要做收购的话，我们可以给他们把关。
But this is not a time when the phone is going to be ringing often. But there are times from that, and Greg will know how to handle them as well or better than I have. Over time, Charlie and I, we missed a lot of things, and what we really regretted was missing something that turned out to be very big. We never worried about missing something that we didn’t understand. Why should we be able to predict the future of every business any more than we can predict what wheat yields are likely to be in Illinois next year? Well, not wheat in Illinois, wheat in Kansas, but corn in Illinois.
总之，现在伯克希尔的电话基本上很安静。将来会有铃声响个不停的时候。到时候，格雷格知道该怎么做，甚至能比我做得更好。我和查理错过了很多机会。我们最后悔的是，明明能看懂的机会，而且是大机会，眼睁睁错过了。要是看不懂的话，错过就错过了，没什么可惜的。 明年伊利诺伊州的小麦产量如何，我们无法预测。明年各家公司的经营业绩如何，我们也无法预测。哦，应该说伊利诺伊州的玉米产量，小麦的主产地是堪萨斯。
So I don’t really think of whether it’s similar to 1999 because I’m not that good on chronology anyway. Unless something really dramatic happened at the time. I mean, I remember things from 2008 and ‘9 much better than I remember whether something happened in 2015 or. Or 1987 or well, 1987 I remember because of October 19. But I just don’t think that way. I just look at what I can do every day. Greg.
其实，在我的思维方式中，我并不考虑现在的市场与 1999 年有何相似之处。我不是很留意每年的股市走势，除非那一年比较特殊。2008 年、2009 年，我印象很深刻。2015 年、1987 年，市场走势如何，我基本不记得了。哦，1987 年，我也记得，那年的10 月 19 日发生了股灾。
我不把当前的市场与过去哪年的市场做比较。这不是我的思维方式。我只关注和研究当下的机会。格雷格，有什么补充的吗？
GREG ABEL: I’m gonna have to use it. Nothing. Sorry. Nothing to add.
格雷格：请允许我借用查理的经典台词。我没什么补充的。（笑声）（掌声）
WARREN BUFFETT: Okay, well, we’ll go to station two. I mean, it’s nice to know what lines you can get an applause for. Station two.
巴菲特：好，请第 2 区提问。
查理的金句是个好包袱。（笑声）
问题 26：在伯克希尔的投资组合中，并非所有股票都是非卖品
QUESTIONER: Hello. My name is Stefan Wuernbacher. I am a shareholder from Hamburg, Germany.
**
问题 26：大家好。我叫 Stefan Wuernbacher，来自德国汉堡。**
I’ve been coming to Omaha since 2007, and I’m deeply grateful for all the things I could learn here, both about investing and about life, in particular, creating circumstances that will enable me to lead a productive life during my entire healthy lifespan. So thank you for that.
我从 2007 年开始来奥马哈，从每年的股东大会中我学到了很多，包括投资方面和人生方面，我感觉自己得到了全面的提升。谢谢。
My question to Warren, your favorite holding period is forever. Holding American Express or Coca Cola for decades. Berkshire recently went in and out of Markel, and you, I believe, sold and later bought Oxy, which I think happens to everyone all the time. But can you maybe to us, give examples of your thoughts process when you exit positions? Thank you.
沃伦，我想请教您一个问题。您希望持有您买入的股票，永远不卖，例如，美国运通、可口可乐，您都持有了几十年。最近，伯克希尔刚买入马克尔集团 (Markel) 没两年，就卖出了。另外，在买入西方石油 (Occidental Petroleum) 的过程中，您也有过卖出的操作。买入卖出是投资中的一部分，很正常。但是，我想向您请教一下，在什么情况下，您会决定卖出？谢谢。
WARREN BUFFETT: Well, there are various reasons for exiting positions. One is if you need the money, but that doesn’t happen very often with us. But it used to happen on every decision I made when I started when I was 20 years old, which I consider the post graham period, although I actually started in 1942, if you just talk about buying stocks.
巴菲特：卖出可能有多种原因。其中一种是因为需要资金。现在伯克希尔持有大量现金，我们基本不可能因为需要资金而卖出。在我 20 岁的时候，我的每一笔卖出都是因为需要资金，我需要变现来做下一笔投资。早在 1942 年，我就买了人生第一只股票。20 岁的时候，我从哥伦比亚大学毕业，凭借从老师格雷厄姆那里学到的知识，我正式走上了投资道路。
But in any event, the decision process is really quite interesting in certain ways because we made - charlie and I made decisions extremely fast. But in effect, after years of thinking about the parameters that would enable us to make the quick decision when it presented itself.
至于说卖出的决定是怎么做的，说真的，查理和我做决定的速度非常快。做了几十年投资，投资中的各种因素，我们玩味已久。什么情况一出现，该做什么，我们能当机立断。
People have speculated on how I’ve decided to really put a lot of money into Apple, and for a reason I can’t - one thing that Charlie and I both learned a lot about was consumer behavior. That didn’t mean we thought we could run a furniture store or anything else. But we did learn a lot when we bought a furniture chain in Baltimore. And we quickly realized that it was a mistake.
人们一直在猜测，我为什么决定大举投资苹果公司。多年来，查理和我对消费者行为的认识越来越深刻。我只是说我们懂消费者行为，这并不代表我们有本事去亲自经营零售企业，例如，家具店之类的。早年间，收购巴尔的摩的一家百货公司，我们学到了很多。我们很快就发现，这笔投资做错了。
But having made that mistake, made us smarter about actually thinking through what the capital allocation process would be and how people were likely to behave in the future with department stores and all kinds of things that we wouldn’t have really focused on. So we learned something about consumer behavior from that. We didn’t learn how to run a department store.
犯错之后，我们吸取了教训，学到了东西。资本配置该怎么做？百货公司的未来如何？还能得到消费者的青睐吗？对于这些问题，我们进行了深入的思考，得出了全新的认识。通过百货公司这笔投资，我们对消费者行为有了初步了解。让我们亲自经营百货公司，我们经营不好，但这并不妨碍我们从中学习消费者行为。
Now, the next one was See’s candy. And See’s candy was also a study of consumer behavior. We didn’t know how to make candy. You know, we didn’t. There were all kinds of things we didn’t know. But we’ve learned more about consumer behavior as we go along. And that sort of background, in a very general way, led up to the study of consumer behavior in terms of Apple’s products.
后来，遇到了喜诗糖果（See’s Candies）。通过喜诗这笔投资，我们对消费者行为有了更深刻的认识。我们不懂糖果是怎么生产出来的。具体的生产、经营，我们一窍不通。但是，在投资喜诗糖果的过程中，我们对消费者行为有了更深的领悟。
And in that case, while I watched what was happening at the furniture mart, in terms of people leaving the store, even though we were selling Apple at a price where we weren’t even making any money, but it was just so popular that if we didn’t have it, people left the store and went to best buy or someplace. And if you know the Blumkins, they can’t stand anybody leaving the store, so they behave accordingly.
在消费者行为方面，我们已经有了很多年的研究和积累。苹果产品对消费者有巨大的吸引力，这引起了我们的注意。在内布拉斯家具城(Nebraska Furniture Mart)，我们顺便售卖苹果产品。我们卖苹果产品，没什么利润。但是，苹果产品特别受欢迎。我们不卖的话，顾客就不来了，就去别的家具店了。内布拉斯加家具城的管理层，布朗金家族，他们怎么可能眼看着顾客离开，所以，他们就继续在店里售卖苹果产品。
But then you learned that had the interest in the brand, and then you had a million different inputs. But I think the psychologists call this apperceptive mass. But there is something that comes along that takes a whole bunch of observations that you’ve made and knowledge you have and then crystallizes your thinking into action. Big action in the case of Apple.
看到苹果品牌如此强大的吸引力，我脑中千丝万缕的线索汇集到了一起。在心理学中，有个“统觉团”(apperceptive mass) 的概念。经过长期的观察、大量的知识积累，在某一瞬间顿悟，所有过去的思考形成智慧的结晶，该怎么做，一下子变得很清晰。 在我想明白之后，我们斥巨资买入苹果。
And there actually is something, which I don’t mean to be mysterious, but I really can’t talk about, but it was perfectly legal, I’m sure, you know, that. It just happened to be something that entered the picture that took all the other observations. And I guess my mind reached what they call apperceptive mass, which I really don’t know anything about, but I know the phenomenon when I experience it. And that is, we saw something that I felt was, well, enormously enterprise.
我不是故作神秘，也没什么不能说的，但确实很难表达出来。就是在长期观察积累的基础上，一下子豁然开朗。我觉得，在那一刻，我经历的就是心理学上说的“统觉团”现象。对于这个心理学现象，我没什么研究，但我觉得我有亲身体会。总之，我感受到了苹果的价值，发现它的价格实在太便宜了。
Maybe I’ve used this example before, but if you talk to most people, if they have an iPhone and they have a second car, the second car cost them 30 or $35,000, and they were told that they never could have the iPhone again, or they could never have the second car again. They would give up the second car. But the second car cost them 20 times. Now, people don’t think about their purchases that way, but I think about their behavior.
我以前举过这样一个例子。大多数人，有一部 iPhone，还有一台 6 万元的备用车。让他们二者选其一，他们会放弃备用车。备用车的价格可是 iPhone 的 10 倍。选择 iPhone，放弃第二台车，苹果的消费者甚至不考虑价格。
And so we just decide without knowing. I don’t know. There may be some little guy inside the iPhone or something. I have no idea how it works. But I also know what it means. I know what it means to people, and I know how they use it. And I think I know enough about consumer behavior to know that it’s one of the great products, maybe the greatest product of all time. And the value it offers is incredible. And I think it has, and Tim Cook, I think it has somebody that, in his own way, is the equivalent of a partner, partner with Steve Jobs that could do one thing extraordinarily well and more than one application, but one thing. And Tim was the perfect partner to serve sequentially with him. So it’s, you sort of know it when you see it.
苹果消费者的行为，引起了我的关注。于是，我们决定买入苹果。我完全不懂 iPhone 是怎么运行的。是不是有个小人儿在 iPhone 里面？我完全不懂。但是，我看懂了苹果产品对用户的吸引力，我知道消费者离不开苹果产品。凭我多年对消费者行为的理解，我发现，苹果是最伟大的产品之一，称其为最伟大也不为过。苹果产品能为消费者提供巨大的价值。史蒂夫·乔布斯 (Steve Jobs) 把一件事做到了极致。蒂姆·库克 (Tim Cook) 有自己的长处，他是乔布斯最合适的继任者，他对苹果的贡献可与乔布斯比肩。有的公司，基本上是一见钟情，看到了，就爱上了。我对苹果是一见钟情。
I actually saw it with GEICO when I went there in 1950. I didn’t know exactly what I was seeing, but Lorimer Davidson on a Saturday, in 4 hours, taught me enough about what I understood what auto insurance was, and I knew what a car was, and I knew what went through people’s minds. I knew they didn’t like to buy it, but I knew they couldn’t drive without it. So that was pretty interesting. And then, but he filled in all the blanks in my mind as I sat there on that Saturday afternoon.
我对盖可保险也是一见钟情。1950 年，一个星期六的下午，我敲开了盖可保险的大门，洛里默·戴维森 (Lorimer Davidson) 仍然在公司上班，他拿出了四个小时的时间，无私地向我讲授关于保险的知识。遇到他之前，我知道什么是车险，我知道人们买车险的心理，不想买，又不得不买。但是，戴维森解答了我的很多疑问，让我对保险生意有了更深的认识。
And, you know, every now and then it happens. You know, why do you have this, the person you met? You know, there are all these different potential spouses in the room, and then something happens that you decide that this is the one for you. You know, I think Rogers and Hammerstein, that some enchanted evening, wrote about that.
一见钟情，可遇而不可求。茫茫人海中，你为什么会与你的伴侣牵手？数不尽的俊男靓女与你擦肩而过，却有一个人让你眼前一亮，你知道了，你遇到了自己的真爱。罗杰斯与哈默斯坦 (Rodgers and Hammerstein) 在他们创作的《迷醉如梦夜》(Some Enchanted Evening) 中描述了这种一见钟情的感觉。
Well, our idea of an enchanted evening is to come up with a business, Charlie and me, and there is an aspect of knowing a whole lot and having a whole lot of experiences and then seeing something that turns on the light bulb. And that will continue to happen. And I hope it happens a few times to you, but you can’t make it happen tomorrow, but you can prepare yourself for it happening tomorrow, and it will happen sometimes.
查理和我，我们与好公司一见钟情。积累大量的知识，积累大量的经验，看到好公司时会怦然心动。今后，我们还会遇到让我们一见钟情的公司。希望你也能一见钟情。一见钟情，不可强求，只能自己多做准备，什么时候机缘到了，自然就来了。
GREG ABEL: Hey, Warren, he mentioned Oxy, which I think is a great example where you made the original decision basically on a weekend with some thought. But as the more you learned about Oxy and the asset position, they had their ability to operate in an exceptional manner, and then a strong CEO around capital allocation. I think your confidence, which was reflected in continuing to acquire more shares, is sort of that type of process.
格雷格：对了，沃伦，问题中提到了西方石油公司，这笔投资可能是一个很好的例子。起初，在一个周末，经过考虑，您决定买入西方石油。买入之后，您对西方石油的了解逐渐深入，它的资产状况稳健、经营有方、管理层优秀、公司的资本配置合理。于是，您决定买入更多西方石油的股份。
WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah, it’s exactly to the point. I mean, I just learned more as I went along. I learned enough. You know, I’d never, I’d heard of Occidental Petroleum. Occidental petroleum happens to have been a descendant, not a descendant, but it’s a continuation of city service, which was the first stock I bought.
**
巴菲特：确实。买入之后，随着对西方石油的接触增多，我对这家公司有了更深的了解。买之前，我就知道西方石油这家公司。它的起源可以追溯到城市服务公司 (Cities Service)，而城市服务公司是我买的第一只股票。**
And, of course, I knew a lot about the oil and gas business, but I didn’t know anything about geology, so I knew the economics of it. I had a lot of various things stored in my mind about the business, but I never heard of Vicki until, I guess, it was a Friday or Saturday, and we met on Sunday morning. We made a deal, but that was one sort of deal. And then as time passed, all the kinds of different events happened. You know, Icahn came in.
我对石油和天然气行业非常熟悉。具体的地质勘探知识，我不懂，但是我知道油气行业是怎么赚钱的。投资西方石油公司之前，我已经积累了大量关于油气行业的知识。在一个星期日的上午，我见到了西方石油的首席执行官维琪·霍勒伯 (Vicki Hollub)。我们达成了初步的投资协议。后来，发生了很多事，包括卡尔·伊坎 (Carl Icahn) 买入 10% 的股票。
I mean, there are a million things you couldn’t predict at the start, and I formed certain opinions as I went along, but then I learned more as I went along. And then at a point when I heard an investor call that it put things together for me in a way it didn’t mean I knew I had a sure thing or anything like that.
刚买的时候，哪能想到后来发生的许多变故。与西方石油一起经历了许多事，我对它的了解增加了，也形成了一些自己的想法。记得那是一次投资者电话会议，听了维琪的一席话，我先前形成的各种想法穿成串了，我确定西方石油这笔投资值得做。
I don’t know what the price of oil was going to be next year, but I knew that it was something to act on. So we did, and we’re very happy we did, and we still don’t know what the price of oil is going to be next year. Nobody does, but I think the odds are very good that it was, but not a cinch that it was a good decision, and we’ve got options to buy more stock, and when we get through with it, it could be a worthwhile investment for Berkshire. We’re in it, and we’re in it for keeps. There are other things that we own that we aren’t in for keeps.
我不知道明年的油价是多少，我只知道西方石油值得投资。这笔投资，不能说板上钉钉了，一定成功，但是我比较有信心。伯克希尔还持有西方石油的认股期权，我们可以买入西方石油更多的股票。西方石油可能成为伯克希尔的一笔重大投资。西方石油的股票，我们不会卖。在我们的投资组合中，有些股票我们会卖，但不是所有的股票都是非卖品。
Oh, incidentally, I should just throw this out, since there’s been speculation on it. We’ve sold. A, I was 100% responsible for the paramount decision. I read speculation that either Ted or Todd had some involvement in that. No, it was 100% my decision, and we sold it all, and we lost quite a bit of money, and that happens in this business, too.
顺便说一件事，我想在此澄清一下，我们清空了派拉蒙 (Paramount) 的股票，这笔投资的责任完全在我。有人猜测这笔投资是泰德或托德做的。不是他们，完全是我做的。我们清空了派拉蒙，亏了不少钱，这在投资中在所难免。
But actually owning Paramount made me think even further. I like to think deeper, but I certainly thought harder even about the whole question of what people do with their leisure time and what the governing principles are of running an entertainment business of any sort, whether it’s sports or movies or whatever it might be.
我喜欢深入思考。持有派拉蒙的股票，我也进行了大量思考。人们如何打发空闲时间？影视、体育等休闲娱乐公司，怎么才能经营好？
And I think I’m smarter now than I was a couple years ago. But I also think I’m poorer because I acquired the knowledge in the manner I did. But I just want to be very clear that, a, we lost money on Paramount, and, b, and I did it all by myself, folks, I don’t know whether I’ve anticipated one of Becky’s questions now, but we will find out. Let’s see now.
与两三年前相比，这些问题我想得更清楚了，钱包也瘪了一些。我花真金白银买来了教训。我想明确地告诉各位两点：第一，我们投资派拉蒙公司亏钱了；第二，责任完全在我。贝琪可能问这个问题，所以我先答了。
Yeah, you’re next, Becky.
好，请贝琪继续提问。
问题 27：为何BNSF 铁路的利润不如其他五家铁路公司？
BECKY QUICK: Yes, you did anticipate one of the questions. Let’s go to another one. This question comes from Vincent James in Munich, Germany. In the chairman’s letter, Warren points out that the profit margins for BNSF have slipped relative to all five other railroads. However, Warren comments in the letter, BNSF carries more freight and spends more on capital expenditures than any of the other five major railroads, and has a vast service territory second to none. Given the comments from Warren about the clear strengths of BNSF, what explains the decline in revenue and profit, and in particular, the profit margins relative to the other five railroads? What are the issues relative to the other railroads, and what is being done to address them? Please be specific. Okay.
**
问题 27：您说得对，确实有人想问派拉蒙。我们提另一个问题，关于 BNSF 铁路的。提问者是来自德国慕尼黑的 Vincent James，问题如下。**
在股东信中，沃伦指出，与其它五家铁路公司相比，伯灵顿北方圣太菲铁路运输公司铁路的利润率有所下滑。沃伦表示，与其它五家铁路公司相比，BNSF 铁路的货运量更大、资本支出更高、服务地域更广。既然 BNSF 铁路这么有优势，它的营收和利润为何会双双下降？它的利润率为何不如其它铁路公司？BNSF 铁路的问题出在哪里？已经采取了什么解决办法？请详细回答。
WARREN BUFFETT: And I will. Well, how specific we get depends on what Greg wants to say. But Greg is that. It’s Greg’s responsibility. It’s my responsibility for the purchase and for the operation up till Greg took over. But I think I’ll let Greg answer that.
**
GREG ABEL: Sure. Yeah, the Warren touched on it. And the comments as reflected there are very accurate. If you look at this quarter’s results or our last year’s results, they were both. - they’re disappointing as shareholders and disappointing relative to the other class one railroads. And as highlighted in the question, there’s five other class one railroads. So it’s pretty easy to understand how you’re performing versus the others. And there’s a lot of other variables, but there’s some very simple things to look at.
**
格雷格：好的。提问中说的情况属实。无论是本季度的业绩，还是去年的业绩，BNSF 铁路的表现都落后于其它一级铁路公司，无法让股东满意。如问题中所说，除了 BNSF 铁路，一级货运铁路公司，还有另外五家。各家的业绩如何，很容易比较。铁路公司的运营数据很多，但只看其中最简单的几个，业绩高低一目了然。**
When we look at where we’ve been on with, associated with Burlington, I would. I would just back up a little bit, because if you go back to 2021, the Burlington team and management team and the group, we’re making excellent progress on a lot of fronts when it comes to our operating in both being efficient and effective in how we’re operating the railroad. And I remember very specific comments from myself in 2022, where I commented that that was the year there was all the supply chain issues, a lot going on in the west coast ports. Our trains were backed up in a variety of places, and we called that a reset year. And I think we did need a reset year on the operational side.
就伯灵顿铁路 (Burlington) 而言，把时间退回到 2021 年，当年，伯灵顿铁路的经营和管理卓有成效，我们在很多方面取得了明显的进步。2022 年，供应链阻塞、西海岸港口大量货物积压，我们的车辆在多地滞留。我讲了，2022 年是重整之年。在经营方面，我们确实需要重整。
But as we moved into 23, the business cost level, cost structure, we didn’t reset it to the underlying demand we were seeing. We anticipated more demand, and we did not reset our cost structure. And the team’s working very hard as we speak, to both reset the cost structure and allocate the cost resources where they need to be.
然而，进入 2023 年，在需求与成本的匹配方面，我们没做好。我们把需求高估了，没把成本降下来。现在，我们的整个团队正在努力压缩成本，并合理分配资源。
And when you go through something like that, what we’ve recognized as an organization, yes, the demand of the rail will drive a certain amount of the cost, but the reality is that the rail industry, if you go back many, many years, it’s flat. There’s not a lot of growth in the industry. There’s opportunities become more efficient, effective, and our margins can go up.
过去几年，在短期内，铁路货运需求上升，导致成本随之上升。然而，从长期来看，铁路货运需求量保持平稳，并没有明显的增长。我们有改善空间，我们能把经营效率提上来，把利润率提上来。
But the reality is the demand is going to be flat. But it does move within different sectors of the rail. It can be in the consumer products, it can be an industrial, it can be in Ag. But overall, it’s generally going to be relatively flat. So we need to get our cost structure right, and we need to get it right, both for the coming year, but for the long term. And that means it’s going to be a continuous exercise. We can’t stop. We can’t say we, we’ve gotten far enough. Because our competitors, and we compete with the other rails, but we also do compete with the truck industry. We have to have a cost structure, allows us to compete both within our rail industry and within the transportation sector as a whole.
在铁路运输的货物中，消费品、工业品等不同类别的货运量可能存在波动起伏，但整体的铁路货运量保持平稳。在今年以及未来的很长时间里，我们将努力保持合理的成本结构。这是一项长期的工作，任何时候我们都不能放松。因为我们要与其它铁路公司竞争，还要与卡车行业竞争。我们的成本结构必须具备足够的竞争力，不但要在铁路行业内领先，还要在整个交通运输业中领先。
So the team at Burlington is working very hard to address the cost structure, just like we have in the past. I think one thing we do recognize, when the other railroads have implemented precision scheduled railroading, there’s other metrics that we have to continue to pay attention to and challenge ourselves. If we’re not at their level, what are the things that are driving it? So we’re gonna.
目前，伯灵顿铁路正在全力以赴调整成本结构。另外，我们很清楚，其它铁路公司采取了“准确时刻铁路运输机制”(precision-scheduled railroading)。我们将全面关注各个指标，找到与竞争对手的差距，努力赶上来。
When they ask for specifics, I’ll give you a few. We have to look at our rail yards and understand how we’re managing that. We have to look at our locomotive fleet, both the size and how we’re utilizing that, and challenge ourselves. And we have to then go back to how we’re using our employee resources and allocating them across the business. So there’s a lot to be done there. Our team’s 100% committed to driving to the right cost structure that’s going consistent with the underlying demand in the business, and then we can’t stop there is the answer. So, a lot to be done, but we have a team that’s absolutely engaged and committed to it, and we’re going to make good progress in this current year.
提问者要求详细回答，那我就说一些具体的。我们要仔细研究机车库的情况，车队中的机车规模是否合理、利用率如何，该优化的要优化。我们要研究员工资源的情况，效率如何、分配是否合理。我们有大量的工作要做。我们的团队将全力调整成本结构，使其与需求匹配。这项工作没有止境。我们的任务很艰巨，但我们的团队有决心、有信心，预计今年就能取得显著成效。
WARREN BUFFETT: At Berkshire, we want everybody to have the idea that there’s a lot to be done with every business, you know? So, I mean, it is. We built a remarkable, remarkable company and Omaha building company, really remarkable. And there’s this question, after everything they did, that was something that was done particularly well, you know, digging a tunnel under the East river or something, said it couldn’t be done. He would say he would be. He was pleased, but not satisfied. And that is exactly the way we want the attitude to be at Berkshire forever.
**
巴菲特：在伯克希尔，我们希望每一位员工都能保持一往无前、开拓进取的姿态。奥马哈有一家著名的建筑商，基威特公司 (Kiewit Corporation)。它是彼得·基威特 (Peter Kiewit) 创建的。每次完成一项不可能完成的任务，而且干得很漂亮，例如，在纽约东河 (East River) 之下挖掘了一条隧道，彼得·基威特总是会说，“满意，但不满足。”(Pleased, but not satisfied.)我们希望伯克希尔也永远保持这种心态。**
Omaha is a railroad town. If President Lincoln, in 1862, I think it was, had decided to pick St. Joe or Plattsmith or anyplace else to build the transcontinental railroad, Omaha would probably build a little town of 20,000 or something on the banks of the Missouri. But making, with Lincoln’s desire to make this the eastern connection and make a transcontinental railroad, Omaha just took off. So it’s been it’s been railroading at its base. The. You know. And anybody that was interested in financial matters had to think about railroads. Plus they had a certain glamor to them anyway.
奥马哈是一座因铁路而兴的城市。1862 年，林肯总统决定建设一条横贯东西的铁路大动脉，并选中奥马哈作为枢纽。如果当初选的不是奥马哈，而是圣约瑟夫 (St. Joseph) 或普拉茨茅斯 (Plattsmouth)，现在的奥马哈可能只是密西西比河畔一座 2 万人的小城。随着铁路的建设，奥马哈逐渐兴旺起来。毕竟，那个年代，铁路是最先进的交通方式，而且铁路能带动经济的发展。
But the interesting thing is that UP, which is our main competitor themselves, fell way behind 20 or 25 years ago. Before Jim Young came in, in 2000, whenever it was ‘08 or so, I started buying three railroad stocks in Union Pacific, BNSF and Norfolk Western, I believe. I don’t know why I wasn’t buying C and O, but in any event, Jim Young had done a marvelous job with Union Pacific. So we owned all three stocks.
我们最主要的竞争对手是联合太平洋铁路公司 (Union Pacific)。别看它现在领先，20 多年前，它可是最差的。后来，在吉姆·杨 (Jim Young) 的带领下，它才逐渐有了起色。2008 年，我买入铁路公司的股票。起初，买了三家，包括联合太平洋、BNSF 和诺福克西方铁路 (Norfolk Western)。为什么没买切萨皮克与俄亥俄铁路 (Chesapeake and Ohio Railway)，我忘了。总之，在吉姆·杨的领导下，联合太平洋经营得很出色。开始的时候，我们买了三家铁路公司的股票。
But what we did in 2009 is we were able. Well, we already owned 22% of it, but overall, it was $35 million a billion dollars, which was a significant part of our capital. We were able to put it to work in a business we liked. And there’s certain tax advantages that come in terms of making money in something that’s more than 80% owned. We call it 100% owned, in this case, versus making it through stocks. So it has a net benefit to us from making the same amount of money owning one of the other railroads, by owning all of the railroads, and we got 35 billion outduring a recessionary period.
2009 年，在已经持有 BNSF 铁路 22% 股份的基础上，我们宣布以 350 亿美元的估值收购 BNSF 剩余的所有股份。350 亿美元，这对我们来说是一笔很大的投资。我们把这笔资金用到了合适的地方。与持有股票相比，收购整个公司，在税收方面，我们更有利。分散持有几家铁路公司，不如把 BNSF 整体收购下来，一个是税收更优惠，另一个是在经济危机中我们抓住了一个 350 亿美元的大机会。
I think that was the worst quarter, the third quarter of 2009, maybe the rails had had for a long time. So it’s worked out. Actually, it’s worked out very well, but it’s because we were putting out capital in 2008 and nine, and if we put money in anything, we’d have made a lot of money. But it’s more satisfying, and it’s actually better in certain ways, tax wise, to make it from something that’s 100% owned and a bunch of 5% or 10% owned businesses.
我没记错的话，那是 2009 年第三季度，铁路行业的至暗时刻。现在看来，这笔投资做得不错，相当不错了。主要是因为我们出手的时候是 2008 年、2009 年。那时候出手，买什么都能赚大钱。当时，我们也可以买入一批公司的股票，每家持有 5%、10% 的股份。显然，把 BNSF 100% 收购下来，在税收等方面我们更适合。
As I mentioned in the annual report, railroads are absolutely essential to the country. That doesn’t mean they’re on the cutting edge of everything. They’re just essential to the country. And that’s why the government, I think they took them over one time, and they negotiate what our labor settlements will be and everything. And if you shutdown the railroads of the country, it would be incredible, the effects, but.
我在股东信中写了，铁路是国家关键性重大基础设施。铁路不是高精尖的行业，但它是国民经济的大动脉。在历史上，美国曾经将铁路收归国有。另外，政府还参与铁路行业的劳资谈判。这都是为了保证铁路的平稳运行。铁路一旦停运，经济将遭受巨大的冲击。
And they would be impossible to construct now. I mean, look at what’s happening in California when they’re trying to build a line. I mean, you know, everybody’s worried about the environmental effect of every mile, and, you know, and what will happen to the various species of birds. Can you imagine the rail system of the United States being built? It would take decades, unless the war was on and the government took over things and just ordered them. You can’t create it.
现在新建一条铁路太难了。加州想建一条高铁，因为种种原因，一拖再拖，十几年了也没建成。例如，很多人担心环保，担心修建高铁破坏鸟类的生存环境。高铁建设，举步维艰。除非政府发布行政命令，强力推动，否则想在美国建一条铁路，非得几十年不可，根本建不成。
So we love owning a business like that. It’s going to be around 100 years from now, won’t be the best growth business in the world at all during that period, but it will be essential. And what it earns in its relation to its replacement value is a pittance. But we’ll do fine in terms of what we paid for it. And we’ll distribute substantial amounts in relation to what we paid to Berkshire in a very tax efficient way. So it’s when.
我们喜欢我们的铁路生意。铁路生意没有成长性，但铁路是关键性重大基础设施，未来 100 年，铁路生意能一直做下去。以重建价值作为基数，铁路公司的盈利微乎其微。好在我们买的价格低，按我们的买入成本计算，我们每年的盈利水平还可以。BNSF 铁路的大部分盈利上交到伯克希尔总部，我们用不着交很多的税，就能把资金收集上来。
The question is, what are the issues relative? The other railroads. It wouldn’t have been the end of the world at all if we bought the Union Pacific and Jim Young had stayed alive to run it for us. That would have been great, too. But we had the opportunity to buy BNSF, and it’s been good for them, and it’s been good for us. And we think it’s been a very important asset to the country. And I just hope we can find something in other industries that makes as much sense as that, where we can put a whole bunch of money to work at an advantageous time. So, let’s go on to station three. Is that correct or not?
有的股东很关注为什么我们的 BNSF 不如其它铁路公司。2008 年、2009 年，要是能把联合太平洋铁路收购下来，而且有一个像吉姆·杨那样的首席执行官，也没什么不好的。关键是当时 BNSF 铁路给了我们收购的机会，BNSF 铁路与伯克希尔实现了双赢。铁路是国家关键性重大基础设施。但愿我们在其它行业也能找到类似的好机会，在有利的时机，把大笔资金投出去，实现公允合理的盈利。
Yeah. Okay.
请第 3 区提问。
问题 28：凡事有兴趣，才能做得好
QUESTIONER: Kia ora, good afternoon. Mr. Buffett, Mr. Abel. My name is Sirapob Wu. A resident of New Zealand but originally from Thailand. This is my first time in America and first time attending the meeting. The journey was rough, but it was all worth it because I can now personally thank you, Mr. Buffett—and the late Charlie Munger, were he still with us—for organising such a wonderful event and, most importantly, for being such exceptional role models and sharing your wisdom with us all these years. So, thank you.
**
问题 28：下午好，巴菲特先生、阿贝尔先生。我叫 Sirapob Wu，我是泰国人，现在居住在新西兰。这是我第一次来美国，第一次参加股东大会。一路上很辛苦，但值得。我终于有机会亲自向您巴菲特先生和已故的查理·芒格先生道谢。感谢你们组织如此盛大的股东会。感谢你们多年以来的言传身教。谢谢。**
Here’s my question for you, Mr. Buffett. Towards the end of 2018, you mentioned that you guarantee you could make a 50% annual return if you had to start again with under $1 million. The question is: if tomorrow you woke up in the body of a 20-year-old American, your name was now Warren a la carte, and you had some money to invest on a full-time basis, what method or methods would you use to achieve that return? Would it involve flipping through 20,000 pages of Moody’s Manual and similar publications to find cigar butts? Or would it be hunting for great companies at a fair price, as Mr. Munger would? Or would it be a combination of both, with opportunity cost serving as the final arbiter of which method to use, given that your investing universe had now broadened significantly? Thank you. Kob khun krab.
巴菲特先生，我想向您请教一个问题。2018 年，您说过，如果您重新开始做投资，只管理 100 万美元，您保证能做到每年 50% 的收益率。我的问题是：如果您明天一早醒来，发现自己变成了一个 20 岁的美国小伙，您的新名字是沃伦二世，您有一些小资金，可以全职做投资，请问您如何实现 50% 的收益率？您具体会选择什么投资方法？是一页一页地翻 2 万多页的《穆迪手册》(Moody’s Manual) 寻找烟蒂吗？是像芒格先生那样以公允的价格买入好公司吗？还是把两种方法结合起来，根据机会成本综合考虑，从大量的机会中筛选最合适的。谢谢。Khob Khun Ka。（泰语，谢谢）
WARREN BUFFETT: Good question. I’m glad you came. The answer would be, in my particular case, it would be going through the 20,000 pages. And since we were talking about railroads, you know, I went through the Moody’s transportation manual a couple of times. That was 1500 or 2000 pages or probably 1500 pages.
**
巴菲特：很好的问题。欢迎你来参加股东会。我的答案是，我还会翻遍 2 万多页。在上一个问题中，我们讨论了铁路公司。《穆迪交通行业手册》(Moody’s Transportation Manual) 大概 1500 页，我翻看过两三遍。**
And I found all kinds of interesting things when I was 50 or when I was 20 or 21. And I don’t imagine there’s anybody here that knows about the Green Bay and Western Railroad Company, but there were hundreds and hundreds of railroad companies, and I like to read about every one of them.
20 岁的时候，我翻的兴致盎然，50 岁的时候，我仍然能从中找到很多乐趣。在座的诸位，我相信没一个人知道绿湾-西部铁路公司 (Green Bay and Western Railroad)。过去，美国有成百上千家铁路公司，读到每一家，我都觉得很有意思。
The Green Bay and western, in those days, everybody had a nickname for railroads. I mean, that was just what northern Pacific was, the Nipper. And, you know, Phoebe Snow was one of them in the east that used to go up to Cornell and the green band, Western was known as grab baggage and walk and GB&W. And they had a bond that was actually the common stock, and they had a common stock that was actually a bond.
那个年代，很多铁路公司有自己的绰号。北太平洋铁路 (Northern Pacific Railroad)，人们经常说它的简称 NP，后来就管它叫“Nipper”了。特拉华-拉克瓦纳-西部铁路 (Delaware, Lackawanna & Western Railroad) 设计了一个名为“白菲比”(Phoebe Snow) 的代言人，她身着一袭白衣，宣传无烟煤更清洁，人们就管这条铁路叫“白菲比”。绿湾-西部铁路公司的首字母缩写正好是“GB&W”，它的客运服务令人无语，于是，人们称其为“Grab Baggage and Walk”（拎起行李自己走）。有一家铁路公司，它的债券其实是股票。还有一家铁路公司，它的股票其实是债券。
And, you know, that that could lead to unusual things, but they wouldn’t lead to unusual things that would work for you with many millions of dollars, but if you collected a whole bunch of those, which I set out to do. And actually, that’s what impressed Charlie when I first met him, because I knew all the details of all these little companies on the west coast that he thought I would never have heard of, but I knew about the Los Angeles Athletic Club, or whatever it might be, and he thought he was the only one that knew about that. And that became an instant point of connection.
对于小资金来说，在小公司里多翻翻，可能找到赚大钱的机会。资金量到了几千万美元，就容纳不下了。在我做投资的早期，我就把精力用到在小公司里寻宝了。与查理第一次见面的时候，我对西海岸的众多小公司如数家珍，查理对我刮目相看。他完全没想到，我的脑子里装了那么多犄角旮旯里的小公司。每次他提到一家小公司，他以为只有他自己知道，没想到我竟然也看过。我和查理找到了共同话题，越聊越投机。
So to answer your question, I don’t know what the equivalent of Moody’s manuals or anything would be now, but I would try and know everything about everything small, and I would find something. And with a million dollars you could earn 50% a year.
我那个年代，我用的是《穆迪手册》，现在应该有了可以替代《穆迪手册》的东西，具体是什么，我不知道。总之，今天重新再来，我仍然会翻遍所有小公司，把每一家小公司挨个看、研究透 (try and know everything about everything small)。从小公司里面，一定能找到好机会。100 万美元，一年赚 50%，可以做到。
But you have to be in love with the subject. You can’t just be in love with the money. You really got to just find it like a true, you know, essentially, like, you know, people find other things in other fields because they just love looking for it. A biologist looks for something because they want to find something, and it’s built into. I don’t know how the human brain works that much, and I don’t think anybody understands too well how the human brain works. But there’s different people that just find it exciting to expand their knowledge in a given area.
但是，只为了赚钱不行，必须要有一颗热爱投资的心。在投资行业，我们因为爱投资，而寻找便宜的股票。同样的道理，在其它行业，人们因为爱那个行业，而寻找别的东西。例如，在生物学中，生物学家因为爱生物，而不断地在生物领域探寻。热爱或许是天生的。人脑如何工作的，我不清楚，似乎也没人能说清楚。我们看到，在现实生活中，不同的人对不同的领域感兴趣，投身于自己感兴趣的领域，有使不完的劲。
I know great bridge players, I know great chess players. Actually, Kasparov came to. Oh, mom met Mrs. B. I’ve had the luck of meeting a lot of people that are unbelievably smart in their own arena and do some unbelievably dumb things in other areas. So all I know is the human brain is complicated, but it does its best when you find out what your brain is really suited for, and then you just pound the hell out of it from that point.
我见过打桥牌的高手，也见过国际象棋大师。国际象棋世界冠军卡斯帕罗夫 (Kasparov) 曾经到访奥马哈并与 B 夫人会面。我有幸见过很多天赋异禀的人，他们在自己擅长的领域所向披靡，离开了他们擅长的领域，却幼稚的令人难以置信。我不知道为什么会这样，不知道人脑是如何工作的。我只知道，做自己最擅长的事，大脑才能发挥出它的威力。所以说，找到你的大脑最擅长的事，剩下的就是一门心思干到底了。
And that’s what I would be doing if I had a small amount of money and I wanted to make 50% a year, but I also wanted to just play the game. And you can’t do it if you really, if you don’t find the game of interest, whether it’s bridge, or whether, you know, whatever it may be, chess, or in this case, finding securities that are undervalued. But it sounds to me like you’re on the right track. I mean, anybody that’ll come all the way to this annual meeting has got something in their mind other than bridge or chess . So I’m glad you came and come again next year.
我讲了我重新来过，只有很少的钱，用什么方法能一年赚 50%。除了方法，很重要的一点在于我对投资本身的喜爱。无论是桥牌，还是国际象棋，没兴趣的话，成不了。不喜欢寻找低估的股票，也做不好投资。听了你的问题，我感觉你现在的路子走得对。另外，你能千里迢迢来参加股东大会，也说明你对投资有兴趣。欢迎你的到来，希望你明年再来。（掌声）
And now we move. Now we move to Becky.
下面该贝琪提问了。
问题 29：把人性想明白了，你就比大多数人强很多了
BECKY QUICK: This question comes from Denny Poland, a shareholder from Pittsburgh. When describing the principal agent problem, Mr Munger said that capitalism often works best when the people managing the property also own the property. In recent years, agents of pension funds and asset management firms who do not have significant personal ownership stakes in Berkshire have forwarded proposals that were not in the economic interest of shareholders. What can be done to limit the negative influence of these agents in the decades after you’re no longer able to cast significant votes against them?
**
问题 29：这个问题来自匹兹堡的股东 Danny Poland。在谈到“委托-代理问题”(principal agent problem) 时，芒格先生说，公司的经营者也是产权所有者，在这种情况下，资本主义的效率最高。一些退休基金和资产管理公司买了伯克希尔的股票。这些大基金由代理人管理，代理人自己并不是伯克希尔的股东。最近几年，在我们的股东大会上，基金公司提出的多项提案并不符合伯克希尔股东的利益。现在您持有大量股票，可以通过占大多数的投票权否决不合理的提案。将来呢？几十年后，您不在了，如何避免代理人的干扰？**
WARREN BUFFETT: Well, that’s a very perceptive question, and it’s been answered in a temporary manner, but who knows how the situation will develop in the future? All I know is that you have a wonderful hand at Berkshire Hathaway, but you have to be able to think your way. I mean, obviously, you have to think your way through political realities. You have to think your way for what will cause a. You want to be on. You want to be regarded as an asset to the country because you’ll find more solutions. If you are an asset, you owe to the country anyway. But beyond that, you’ll find more solutions than if you’re regarded as evil or something, and worse yet, if you deserve it.
巴菲特：这个问题很有远见。短期之内，我们完全有能力解决这个问题。至于几十年后，那就不好说了。我们伯克希尔·哈撒韦手握主动权。将来，我们一定要三思而后行。我们必须看透政治现实，带领伯克希尔走一条阳光大道。我们要做国家的顶梁柱。只有国家信任我们，当危机出现时，我们才能成为一股中坚力量。这既是为了伯克希尔的长远发展，也是因为我们对国家怀着感恩之心。如果我们自己不行，名声差、财力弱，危机发生时，只能成为国家的累赘，还谈什么为国效力。我们应时刻谨记，做国家的顶梁柱。
So it’s something that’s constantly in our mind, and it needs to be in the mind of the directors, and they need to think for themselves on this rather than bow to conventional wisdom, which, you know, in a sense, you don’t want to become a cynic about life, but almost everybody that approaches you, if you have tons of resources that’s got some interest in figuring out how to use your resources to their advantage, and that’s true whether they’re in politics or whether they’re in investment banking or whether they’re selling you, well, whatever it may be that they’re selling, I don’t want to do any injury to anybody, but life insurance agents see the advantage of buying life insurance, and investment managers who get paid based on assets managed to get interested in selling you their services.
各位董事，伯克希尔该怎么做，你们应当独立思考，自拔于流俗。人生不能凡事总看到负面，但是，确实存在这样一种现象：如果你有钱有势，接近你的所有人，他们都或多或少地琢磨，如何利用你的权势为自己谋利。无论是从政的、还是经商的，概莫能外。我说这番话，没有想批评任何人的意思。很多人向你做推销，卖保险的劝你买保险，做理财的劝你买基金。
Imagine if everybody in this room were following the investment advice of somebody that said, you know, for 1% a year, I’ll tell you how to invest your money. And in 1950, when we started in 1965, they would have said, well, buy Berkshire Hathaway, and if they were around now and they saw the 1% deal, they’dbe collecting $8 billion a year from people who aren’t getting any dividends from us. So they would have a different interest in the kind of contract they worked out with you than you would have.
假设在座的各位股东，你们听了一位投资顾问的建议，让他帮你们投资，每年收 1% 的费用。投资顾问让你们买了伯克希尔的股票。从1965 年到现在，按照每年 1% 的费用，投资顾问把 80 亿美元装进了自己的口袋。伯克希尔一直不分红，你们作为股东没拿到一分钱股息，投资顾问却分走了 80 亿美元。投资顾问多赚的，恰好是你们少赚的，投资顾问考虑的是他们自身的利益。你们不如自己直接买伯克希尔的股票，只需交一次佣金，未来的所有收益都是你们自己的。
And best thing to do was just pay them a commission one time and own the stock. But you have to be alert to how what human nature does to both other people and to you. And then, you know, if you think it through well and actually listen to what Charlie has told you, you’ll have a big head start on most people. Charlie - there’s one thing that I should mention that really is terribly interesting about Charlie. Charlie knew the importance of psychology and human behavior and incentives and all of that.
总之，我们要对人性保持警觉，在人性的驱使下，别人会做什么，你会做什么，心中要有数。多听查理的教诲，把人性想明白了，你就比大多数人强很多了。谈到了人性，提起了查理，我想多讲几句。从年轻时起，查理就认识到了心理学的重要性。
He figured that out very early. And, of course, he gave some talks, even on 25 or so ways, whatever it happened to be. I don’t remember the exact number, but the different ways that one person could take advantage of another by understanding how humans behave. And then after doing a magnificent job of explaining it. He believed in understanding what others would do, but he thought it was beneath him to actually use those methods to manipulate people.
他很早就开始研究人类行为及其背后的动机。我们知道，查理做过一个题为《人类误判心理学》(The Psychology of Human Misjudgment) 的演讲。他列出了 25 种人类误判心理倾向，揭示了种种利用心理学知识操纵别人的伎俩。查理把人类行为讲得很透，他对人类行为有很深的洞察，但他自己不屑于利用心理学知识操纵别人。
Really interesting human being that thinks through the psychology of human behavior and figures out, you know, how you become a great insurance salesman or manager on Wall Street, or accumulate assets under management or whatever it may be. And you get very rich by understanding the weaknesses of others to some extent, and then decide that it’s very important for you to recognize these when they occur. It’s very important for you to know them better than the person that actually is using them, but not that you don’t have to stoop to using them yourself. And Charlie told me that in his lifetime after he figured this out, there were a couple of times when he used them. He wasn’t proud of it, but he also never lied to me. So he explained to me that there were a couple times when he used some of these techniques, but he didn’t plan on using them anymore.
查理真是一个特立独行的人。他把人类行为背后的心理学研究透了，他知道卖保险的怎么卖保险，做基金的如何拉客户。很多人发了大财，靠的正是利用他人的弱点。查理告诉我们，我们要能识破别人的手段，甚至比对方更懂他们的套路，但是我们自己犯不着耍这些心眼。
查理告诉我，在发现人类误判心理倾向之后，他自己用过一两次心理学的招数。查理觉得这不是什么光彩的事，但他从来不向我隐瞒什么。查理告诉我，他自己用过一两次，再也不想用了。
Also wanted me to know that if I ever did something like that, I wasn’t really behaving terribly, that he allowed for the fact that humans may misbehave. So I’m sure that I behaved somewhat better before my marriage than I did afterwards in my enthusiasm for different activities, like dancing or something. And he said, we all do it, but don’t do it again.
他还对我说，如果我也用过类似的招数，我不应该自责，不是我的人品有问题，人非圣贤，孰能无过。我心里明镜似的，很多事儿，例如跳舞，结婚之前，我装的可积极了，结婚之后，就装不下去了。查理说，知错能改，善莫大焉。（笑声）
So that’s part of acquiring human wisdom. And speaking of human wisdom, we’ve just got that one book out there by Charlie, I mean, poor Charlie’s Almanac, and that’s worth reading three or four times. I think I read Ben Graham’s book about five or six times. And each time I read it, I realized that I just needed to think a little more deeply about certain things. They weren’t complicated or anything. But, you know, it’s better to. If you’ve got some great instruction, like you get with Charlie, it’s better to read it several times than to just figure you’ll just read every book once it’s in the library.
理解人性、完善自己，这正是一个汲取智慧的过程。谈到智慧，在今年的股东大会现场，我们只为大家准备了一本书，《穷查理宝典》(Poor Charlie’s Almanack)。这本书值得读三到四遍。本·格雷厄姆的书，我读了五六遍。每读一遍，都发现自己先前的认识存在不到位的地方。不是说他们讲的东西多复杂、多难懂，我的意思是，读经典如同聆听大师的教诲，最好多读几遍、反复琢磨。现在的书很多，因为书多，就追求数量，浮光掠影地泛泛而读，不如多读经典。
Okay, let’s go to section four.
好的，请第 4 区提问。
问题 30：父亲是巴菲特心中的好榜样
QUESTIONER: Jeff Rabelir from Tulsa, Oklahoma. And I’m thinking of Doctor Graham, Mr Munger, your father. And my question is, for all of us, but it’s probably especially for the younger people in the room, the importance of picking the right heroes in life. Choosing friends wisely, and maybe tell us, a story, if you could, about each of those folks. Thank you, sir.
**
问题 30：我叫 Jeff Rabelir，来自俄克拉荷马州塔尔萨。对于我们所有人来说，尤其是在座的年轻人，在人生中选择正确的榜样非常重要。 本·格雷厄姆、芒格先生、您的父亲，他们是很好的人生榜样。请您谈谈您的人生榜样，如果可以的话，请给我们讲两个小故事。谢谢。**
WARREN BUFFETT: Well, there’s no question you’re 100% right in terms of having the right heroes. And, you know, you’re lucky if you get them. I mean, Charlie had them, I had them. And the interesting thing, my sister is here today, my younger sister, with the two survivors. And we both experienced having the same hero, even though as we grew older, we saw that we didn’t agree with plenty of his ideas, but we did agree with his values and motivation. And that’s, that’s a better lesson than having somebody that reading to you from a catechism, that has got a lot of rules in it, which are pretty good rules, but, but there’s a special, special place for somebody that is going to continue loving you even if you break some of the rules. And that’s what Charlie had in his life, was what Bertie and I had in our life.
巴菲特：您说的没错，有一个好的榜样，确实非常重要。有好榜样的人，是幸运的人。查理很幸运，我也很幸运。今天，我的妹妹也来到了现场。我们兄妹三个，现在还剩我们俩。我们俩的榜样是我们的父亲。随着我们长大，我们发现，在很多问题上，我们的见解与父亲相左。但是，我父亲的价值观和出发点，我们完全认同。我的父亲对我们管教甚严，但是，即使我们犯了错，他对我们的爱也丝毫不减。我们因此而更愿意听从他的教导。现在一想到他，我们仍然觉得心里很温暖。我们兄妹俩有这样一位父亲，查理也有这样一位父亲。
So I would just repeat what you said. I don’t need to give you a bunch of, well, when I ran away from home, I’ll give you a specific example with me. When I ran away from home and went and we hitchhiked up to Hershey, Pennsylvania, and got picked up by the state police and everything. And I talked these other two guys into it and we lied like crazy to the state police, you know, saying we had our parents permission. Some kid at the place where we stayed had tipped them off that we’d run away from home. And we started, like I said, state police picked us up. We decided two things. You know, we decided to tell them a bunch of lies about the fact we had our parents permission. And we decided we better get out of Hershey because these cops were going to find out sooner or later. And so anyway, we end up back in Washington after a couple days.
你在提问中说的，我完全赞同。我讲一件我亲身经历的事。十几岁的时候，有一次，我离家出走了。我和几个同学搭车跑到了宾州的好时小镇 (Hershey, Pennsylvania)，是我怂恿另两个同学离家出走的。在好时小镇，我们住进了一家旅馆。旅馆里有个孩子报了警，说我们是从家里跑出来的。警察来了以后，我们满口谎话，说我们得到了家长的允许。我们商量好了，赶快离开好时小镇，躲开当地的警察。两三天后，我们还是被送回了华盛顿。
And when I walked in the door, well, one of the boy’s mother and this other kid was the congressman, Roger Bell. And his mother was in the hospital over this whole thing. He’d taken out his cash and his savings bonds. And so she was sick. And Judge Bell, her husband, was all concerned and everything. And I walked in the door in Washington and my mother said, how come he came back so soon? And my father said, he said, I know you can do better.
和我一起离家出走的一个男孩，他父亲是国会议员罗杰·贝尔 (Roger Bell)。这个男孩从家里偷了现金和储蓄债券，他母亲气的生病住院了。他父亲大法官贝尔，也急得够呛。
And I just paid more attention to my father than my mother. So you want to have the right heroes and you don’t have to have them. It’s not the heroes based on what they’ve accomplished. It’s the people that you want to be yourself. And if you copy the right people, you’re off to a great start. And I don’t mean great start about making money. I mean a great start about living your life.
当我回到华盛顿推开家门时，我母亲说：“他怎么这么快就回来了？”我父亲说：“我相信，你不会再做这样的事了。”我父亲的话，我往心里去了。人生要找到好的榜样。你选择榜样，不要看他取得了多大的功名，而要看你自己是否想成为他那样的人。选对了榜样，向榜样学习，你就高人一等了。我这里说的高人一等，不是说赚钱比别人多，而是真正知道该如何生活。
So you can check with my sister Bertie who’s here, and see if I’ve told the story correctly. She ran away from home, too, incidentally, but she didn’t get as far as I got. She was running away to go over to my grandfather’s house, which was about 2 miles away. But I don’t want to denigrate her runaway abilities because she was much more accomplished than I am in all kinds of other things. But when it comes to running away, I definitely outclassed her.
我妹妹也在现场，我讲的这件事，你们可以问一下我妹妹。她也离家出走过，但没我走得远。她只跑到了我爷爷家，离我家才 3 公里。我妹妹在很多方面比我强，但是要说离家出走，还是我的本事比较大。
Okay, let’s go to Becky.
好，下一问题，请贝琪提问。
问题 31：就收购领航旅行中心公司而言，收获了什么？
BECKY QUICK: This question comes from Vedant Sharma in India. Warren, you and Charlie have often said that you were able to identify the people you want to go into business with and have had an exceptional record in that. However, in the case of Pilot, we noticed that the final stake purchase ended up in a dispute and had a sense of smart accounting, to put it one way, to squeeze a little more out from the deal than was deserved by the seller. Knowing well that this has been settled out of court, and needs due confidentiality, I would like your views on some of the lessons learned that may be beneficial for future deals to watch for and for coming leadership to look out for as well.
**
问题 31：这个问题来自印度的 Vedant Sharma。-沃伦，您和查理讲过，你们看人很准，在商业中，你们能看得出来对方是否值得合作。然而，在领航旅行中心公司 (Pilot Travel Centers) 这笔交易最后阶段的收购中，双方出现了争议。领航旅行中心有粉饰业绩的嫌疑，它想从与伯克希尔的交易中获得更多利益。伯克希尔已经与领航旅行中心达成了庭外和解，具体内容保密。我想请您谈谈，从这件事中，您学到了什么？对未来的收购有什么可以借鉴的？未来的领导层在做收购时应当注意什么？**
WARREN BUFFETT: Well, I’ll make two comments on that. A couple of the directors had their doubts about going in, and in any event, Pilot is working out well for us. And my friend Sam Butler one time said to me that, and he was talking in general about certain kinds of situations, but he said, well, Warren, he said, all is well that ends, and that’s where we are.
**
巴菲特：关于这笔收购，我只想谈两点。第一，有几位董事一开始就不太同意收购领航旅行中心，好在这笔收购的整体结果令人满意。第二，以前，在一次闲聊时，我的朋友萨姆·巴特勒 (Sam Butler) 和我讲过一句话，他说：“沃伦，了了就好。(All is well that ends.)”借用他这句话来形容我们现在的状态，再恰当不过了。（笑声）**
So we’ll go to station five.
请第 5 区提问。
Well, while we’re getting to station five, I’ll tell you a little bit more about the fellow that is now running Pilot. I knew you may have met here that Greg had known for a long, long time. And he grew up in Omaha and came from a poor family and was raised by his mother. And went to the same high school, public high school that my wife went to, North High. Went to University of Omaha, set an all time record in rushing yardage playing there. He was a bouncer, yes. Drafted by the New York Giants, as I remember.
第 5 区提问之前，我想讲一讲领航旅行中心公司的现任首席执行官。他参加过我们的股东大会。他在格雷格的手下工作过很多年。他出生于奥马哈，家境贫寒，全靠母亲把他抚养成人。他就读于奥马哈北方高中 (Omaha North High)，我的妻子也是那所高中毕业的。后来，他去了奥马哈大学 (University of Omaha) 读书。大学期间，他在橄榄球校队中司职边锋，创造了球队的冲球记录。我没记错的话，他后来被纽约巨人队 (New York Giants) 选中了。
GREG ABEL: Right.
格雷格：没错。
WARREN BUFFETT: But then injured, actually, in spring training, I remember, in some way. And so he ended up being an intern. Not an intern, but a trainee, you might say, for mid American before I was there.
And now here he is, still relatively young, and he’s running a huge company, and we’ve got incredible confidence in what he will do. And we like very, very, very much the business that was created by Big Jim Haslam. And it really is almost an only in America type story, but it does show you with somebody with some real stuff and with a mother that believes in them and with bad breaks along the way. I mean, imagine how you’d feel if you were drafted by the New York Giants and then you suffered some injury in spring training or something. I mean, you spend your life, it just, it hurts, but it’s not an experience I would have ever had. I was the last guy chosen.
如今，他仍然很年轻，但已经成为了一家大型公司的领导者。我们很看好他。另外，我们也非常看好领航旅行中心公司的生意，创始人哈斯拉姆家族 (the Haslams) 把一份好生意交给了伯克希尔。领航旅行中心公司的现任首席执行官，他的故事是典型的美国励志故事。他品行兼优，出身寒门，在母亲的抚养下长大。他遭受过重大挫折。试想，明明已经被著名球队选中，却突然遭遇伤病，职业球员的道路戛然而止。换了谁，都难以接受。好不容易有机会成为职业球员，却中途梦碎，那是多大的折磨。反正我不可能有这样的经历，因为选中谁，也不可能选中我。
But to see that he’s running a company depends on the price of deal, but it’s a huge company. What does he have, 25,000 or something? And he’s got many, many, many years to go. So I couldn’t be more pleased about not only the acquisition of Pilot, but just what it tells you about America. You can, what do you have to look up to? Read about them in Google or an interview with Adam?
如今，看到他成为一家大公司的领导者，我们甚感欣慰。领航旅行中心是一家有 25,000 多名员工的大公司。他还很年轻，小伙子前程无量。收购了领航旅行中心公司，我很高兴。有这样优秀的管理者，我也很高兴。怎么了解亚当·莱特 (Adam Wright) 的经历？在谷歌中搜索吗？
GREG ABEL: Yeah, I try and think if it’s. A podcast.
**
格雷格：我想想啊，他在一期播客节目中讲了自己的经历。（译者注：网址https://wrjz.com/podcast/bob-bell-show-guest-adam-wright-ceo-of-pilot-corporation/）**
WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah, he’s got a podcast. Podcast that will just blow you away. And if you don’t think this is a great country, it has a lot of great people. All you got to do is read that podcast. So.
巴菲特：对，是一期播客的采访。大家可以去听一听，听了之后，你一定像我一样对他赞不绝口。我们的国家很伟大，出了很多了不起的人才。大家去听听那一期播客吧。
GREG ABEL: But we do have a great set of assets.
格雷格：另外，领航旅行中心拥有大量的资产。
WARREN BUFFETT: Oh, yeah.
巴菲特：没错。
GREG ABEL: You know, if you look at Pilot, we have 800, more than 800 stations, travel centers, and just so everybody knows, I mean, the beauty of that, and there’s a question regarding this morning around fuel choices at Pilot. And the exciting thing is, in the end, pilot’s going to serve whatever fuel our customers need. It can be electric, it can be renewable diesel, it can be diesel or any of the various sustainable fuels. But the point is, it has exceptional locations that are on the interstate highways.
格雷格：领航旅行中心公司经营 800 多个服务区。在每个服务区，顾客需要什么燃料，我们都可以满足，包括充电、柴油、可再生柴油。
我们坐拥州际高速公路的黄金地段。
WARREN BUFFETT: Hundreds of them.
巴菲特：是啊，好几百个服务区。
GREG ABEL: And we bought an incredible franchise and now we have a great leadership team in both Adam and his team that’s around him. So we’re pleased where that opportunity will go.
WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah, we’ve got probably the average one might be ten or twelve acres or something like that zoned commercial on interstates throughout the whole United States.
Who knows? But what was created there is amazing, too. You had a fellow that played at University of Tennessee, and undefeated and came away from this football team and you think, well, another football player, you know, maybe he goes out and, and there may be some intermediate parts in the story a little bit, but he buys a gas station and he turns it into something that is huge. So we’re really delighted with it.
巴菲特：确实，领航旅行中心的服务区遍布美国各地，我们在州际公路的黄金地段拥有商业地产，平均每个服务区的占地面积六七十亩。
领航旅行中心的创始人也非常有故事。他曾经在田纳西大学 (University of Tennessee) 橄榄球队打球，这是一只冠军球队。球员生涯结束后，他走上了创业之路，买下了一家加油站。从一家加油站做起，经过不断地扩张，缔造了一个遍布全国的大企业。我们喜欢这样的故事。
And it’s another kind of only in America story. You know, how many of us can become an all american, number one ranked team, let alone start a business that goes on these sort of heights. So we feel very good about it.
吉姆·哈斯拉姆 (Jim Haslam) 也为我们书写了一个典型的美国励志故事。先是帮助球队夺得全国总冠军，之后又带领一家小公司站上行业之巅。几个人能有这么大的本事？因此，我们对这家公司只有敬佩。
Becky?
贝琪，下一个问题。
GREG ABEL: No, I think they’re ready for five now.
格雷格：第 5 区的问题还没问呢。
WARREN BUFFETT: Oh, I see.
巴菲特：哦，对。
GREG ABEL: He’s up there now, ready to go.
格雷格：提问的人应该已经准备好了。
WARREN BUFFETT: Okay, go do it.
巴菲特：好，请提问吧。
问题 32：努力和运气共同加持，才能取得成就
QUESTIONER: Hello, Mr. Buffett. My name is Zhang Yabo. I came from micro City, Hainan, China. So I want to express my sincere gratitude for you, for the extraordinary value you generated for shareholders and the positive influences you’ve had on younger generation of investors like us. And my question relates to the concept of maximizing the duration of compounding. As individuals age, the quality of compounding inevitably diminishes. What are your secrets in maintaining your sharp man? Extraordinary judgment and great physical condition. We wish you well. Thank you.
**
问题 32：您好，巴菲特先生。我叫 Zhang Yabo，来自中国海南 Micro City。首先，感谢您为股东创造的卓越价值，感谢您对我们年轻一代投资者的指引。我想向您请教一下，如何才能将复利积累的时间尽可能拉长？进入老年阶段，人的身体逐渐衰弱，复利积累的效果也必然大不如前。然而，您如此高龄，却仍然保持着敏锐的头脑、精准的判断力和良好的身体状况，请问您有什么秘诀吗？最后，祝您健康长寿。谢谢。**
WARREN BUFFETT: Well, you don’t know me well, but that’s. I like. Just keep talking.
巴菲特：你把我夸的太好了，我很开心。（笑声）
You know, you have to be just plain lucky. I mean, there’s no question about it that there’s 100 or a thousand. You know, multiply a number of times that some drunk could have pulled out of the car and broadsided me, or, you know, just the bad luck you can have in life. And I can say my great skill has been avoiding bad luck, but that isn’t a skill. That’s luck or bad activities. And then to get to be. I would not have been if you’d taken my high school class. And you say a couple of you are going to live to be 90. Men are going to live to be 93, maybe I’ve got. You know, I wouldn’t. I would not have been a heavy favorite, I can tell you that. And I wouldn’t have bet on myself. But you just. Now, you should make the most of your luck when you get it.
其实，运气很重要。在我这一生中，可能有 100 次、1000 次，我完全可能被一辆大卡车撞上。正所谓，人有旦夕祸福。我最大的本事可能就是躲开霉运。这不能算是本事，只能说是命好。人生可能遭遇很多厄运。回到我的高中时代，你去问我们全班同学，“你们班有两三个人能活过 90 岁，猜猜他们是谁？”大家不会选我，连我自己都不会选我自己。如果上天眷顾，好运相随，就不能辜负了上天的美意。
And sometimes I’ve done that and sometimes I haven’t.
老天给的好机会，有的我抓住了，有的我没抓住。
I mean, it is absolutely true that if I had to do over again, there’d be a lot of different choices I would make, whether they would have ended up working out as well as things that worked out. It’s hard to imagine how they could have worked out any better. So. But it is interesting how many mistakes you can make if you just keep going. And Charlie, you know, when he used to talk about that, that you just soldier through, you just keep going, and.
让我重新活一次，有很多事儿，我可以不像当初那么做。但是，改变了选择，我能否比现在过得更好，那还两说呢。所以说，人生这条路，你就迈开步子往前走吧，犯错是难免的。在讲到人生的时候，查理经常说“迎难而上”(soldier through)。无论如何，我们要一直往前走。
But you still need luck, you know, you don’t want to. Anybody that says I did it all myself is just kidding. I mean, it’s just. They’re delusional and, you know, actually living in a country with a life expectancy is pretty darn good, you know, so that alone is a huge plus.
努力是一方面，运气也很重要。那些取得一些成就的人，没有哪一个是只靠自己努力就成了的。谁要说自己的成功全靠自己，纯属痴人说梦。出生在美国，不说别的，就说这么长的预期寿命，就已经是巨大的运气加持了。
I was born, if I’d been born, my sister’s here, and she was born female, and she’s just. Just as smart as I was and everything. But even my own family, who really did well, particularly my dad, love us all equally in a terrific manner. But he still told me that this is, well, was born ten years after the 19th amendment was past, but he basically told my sisters that marry young, well, you still have your looks.
我一出生就是男孩，我妹妹是女孩。我妹妹和我一样聪明，一点不比我差。我们的父母对我们兄妹三人算是一碗水端平，特别是我父亲，他对三个子女都是无私的爱。尽管如此，我还是能察觉到父亲对待男孩和女孩有不一样的地方。我出生的时候，第十九修正案 (19th Amendment) 已经颁布了十年，法律已经赋予了女性选举权。
And he told me that the world, that power in you is new in nature and you really could do anything. Well, I found there were a lot of things I couldn’t do, but the message given to females and males was incredibly different by the most well meaning and loving of parents.
然而，我的父亲告诉我姐姐、我妹妹，结婚要趁早，趁着年轻赶快找对象。我的父亲和我说的话则不同。他告诉我，你天生就很了不起，你将来做什么都能做成。后来，长大以后，我发现很多事我根本做不来。在那个年代，即使最开明的父母，他们传递给女孩和男孩的信息也完全不同。
You know, like I say, in 1930, I mean, it’s been that way for millions of years. It’s changed quite dramatically, but obviously not completely, but during my lifetime, but it’s been during the latter half of my lifetime. If you take my sisters, if they’d been born even five or ten years later, they still would have been getting instructions when they went away to college, to be sure, and get married while we get arranged so that you’re going to be married while you’re in school, because after you get out, all the good ones are taken.
在我出生的 1930 年，男女仍然像之前的几千年一样不平等。在我的前半生中，女性的地位仍然很低。到了我的后半生，女性地位才有了明显的改善。我的姐姐和妹妹，就算她们晚个五年、十年出生，父母照样会告诉他们，上了大学要早点找对象、嫁人，晚了就找不到好人家了。
Bertie was telling me that was a message that that basically had been imparted to a lot of the women she had met, obviously. So it really, it’s extraordinary how much progress we’ve made, but it’s unbelievable how long it took to get it made. I mean, it really does make you wonder about, you know, we’ve got all these heroes from american history and all the wonderful things they did, but how could they say all men are created equal and then write a constitution that women, you know, allowed women not to be able to own property and depending on the state.
我妹妹伯蒂告诉我，她们那一代女孩，父母都是这么教的。如今，女性地位显著提高了，但这已经过了多少年啊？我很难理解，我们美国历史上的那些大英雄，他们立下了赫赫功绩，但是他们竟然在宪法中禁止女性拥有财产，这算什么人人生而平等？想想我就觉得太不公平了。
I mean, just terrible conditions. But anyway, that’s how you learn about what the humans can do.
人啊，有时候真的很难理解。（掌声）
And I feel, and you’ve got to feel better about the future for your kids than you would have felt 100 years ago, no matter what the situation is. Anyway, we’ll move to Becky.
幸好我们的子孙后代，他们不必像 100 年前一样了，他们能过上更好的生活。好，请贝琪提问。
问题 33：巴菲特的遗嘱
BECKY QUICK: This question comes from Linda Frazier in Westport, Connecticut. Dear Mr Buffett, in the past, you’ve specified that 90% of your wife’s inheritance be invested in a low cost S&P 500 index fund and 10% in short term government bonds. But the market cap of the magnificent seven tech stocks now represents more than one quarter of the market cap weighted S&P 500 index, which seems like a big bet on the tech sector. I was wondering if you would now recommend investing some portion of the funds in a low cost, equal weight S&P 500 index fund, rather than having all of the equity exposure in a tech heavy market cap weighted fund.
**
问题 33：来自康涅狄格州西港市的 Linda Frazier 提出了以下问题。巴菲特先生，您说过，您留给您妻子的遗产，90% 将用于投资标普 500 指数基金，10% 用于投资短期国债。目前，在以市值加权的标普 500 指数中，“美股七雄”(Magnificent Seven) 的市值已经占据了四分之一。现在买标普 500 指数，无异于押注高科技板块。在这种情况下，为了规避高科技板块占比过高的风险，是否应该选择一只等权重加权的标普 500 指数基金？**
WARREN BUFFETT: Well, that’s an interesting question. And I will tell you that I revise my will about every three years or so, and I get little thoughts from time to time, and then you don’t change it. Every time you do it, you get a tiny thing. But the one section I haven’t changed is that, that with my wife, that she got left a huge amount of money by practically anybody’s measurement, except a pittance, compared to what I’ve accumulated in total.
巴菲特：大概每三年，我修改一次遗嘱。有什么新想法，我就在遗嘱中调整一下。不是每次都改，只是做一些小的调整。关于我留给妻子的遗产如何安排，那部分的内容，我从来没动过。与我积累的全部财富相比，我留给我妻子的只是九牛一毛。当然，按普通人的标准来说，我留给我妻子的财富已经非常多了。
And it won’t make one bit of difference to her in life whether she beats the S&P or anything else. All I want to leave is plenty of money to take care of way beyond anything she’ll ever spend, and at the same time, give her as much peace of mind as possible and really make sure that the trustee who administers it doesn’t really have to worry about whether, it just doesn’t make any difference whether she beats the S&P or not. And the main thing is that she feels that. She feels that she’s in a financial position, which, of course, she will be, that she doesn’t even need to think about it. And the trustee doesn’t have to worry about getting sued or anything else. So it’s simply not an economic condition.
对我妻子来说，能否跑赢什么标普指数无关紧要。我只想给她留下足够的钱，让她这辈子怎么花都花不完，而且让她安安稳稳的，用不着操一点心。按我的安排，管理遗产的信托人要做的很简单，用不着和指数比收益率高低。最主要的是，我想让我的妻子在财富方面拥有安全感，她甚至用不着考虑钱。信托人也用不着担心业绩不达标之类的。在安排留给妻子的遗产时，我考虑的不是赚多少钱的问题。
Now, obviously, with 99% plus of what I have going to philanthropy, and I’ve got my three children. The one good thing is that at the age of 70, 69 and 65, they have matured remarkably, probably more than their father. But at the same time, they’ve got less time to work with the money than they would have. You know, they were 50 or something like that.
我 99% 以上的财富将用于慈善事业。这件事，我将交给我的三个子女处理。他们现在分别是 70 岁、69 岁、65 岁。一方面，他们已经很成熟了，可能比我还要有想法、有头脑；另一方面，他们的年纪也不小了，留给他们的时间也不是很多了。
So you do, you do the best in accomplishing your objectives in your will, and, and in the end, you know, you can’t, you don’t know what’s going to happen after you die, but you make sure that, that to the extent that you leave, you have a lot of money to leave. You take. Obviously, you want to say thanks to a lot of people and quite a few people in terms of specific requests, you want to take care of your family.
在遗嘱中，只能尽量想办法实现自己的遗愿。百年之后，谁知道怎样呢？一个人，积累了大量财富，在离开这个世界的时候，如何安排遗嘱？要感谢很多人，专门向他们赠予财富。要把自己的家人照顾好。
But in my case, that requires practically no money and a fair amount for taxes. But I have, and my children are in charge of what happens to the funds that are left. But like I say, the problem is when you live as long as I have. And the kids get older, who knows what happens with mortality tables? And they’re the ones that I really want to see handle the distributions. And they will, and they’ll be very good about it.
我的家人要求不高，何况把太多的钱留给子女，还要交大量的遗产税。总之，我把我积累的财富交给我的子女分配。刚才我说了，我年纪这么大了，我的子女也老了，年龄是个很大的问题。我的财富如何分配，我全交给我的子女了。我相信他们能把这件事干得很漂亮。
And they will, and they’ll be very good about it. But if we’re all alive three years from now, they’ll be three years older. So everything, you can’t solve everything in life. You do the best you can with it.
如果三年后，我还活着，我的子女也老了三岁。人不是万能的，总有解决不了的事，只能尽力而为。
People do interesting things. I’ve been around probably as many rich people as almost anybody, and a fair number of, I know what they’re doing or have done with their funds. And the idea that you can have a huge amount of money and leave everybody very rich and have people liking each other less when it all happens. Humans are really, they are interesting to watch. Some of them handle it beautifully and others are terrible.
人真是很奇怪。我见过很多有钱人，我看到了他们如何安排自己的财富。很多有钱人，他们给子女留下了巨额财富，却让子女反目成仇。其中的道理耐人寻味。有些人把遗产安排得很妥当，有些人却留下了一团乱麻。
The one thing lawyers will always tell you is don’t use codicils. In other words, you know, when you change your mind on a will, just write a new one, but tear up the old one. Don’t do it by just adding codicils. But I believe I’m correct.
律师说，立遗嘱的时候，最好不要用“附则”(Codicils)。按照律师的建议，有什么修改或补充的，不要添加附则，应该重新写一份，把原来的撕掉。我觉得我的做法是对的。
Certainly read it. That Paul Getty, who was the richest man in the world, presumably at one point in the 1950s or 60s, and it was a very interesting guy to read about, and he had five wives, and he’s the one whose grandson was kidnapped, and they sent Paul Getty an ear of the child and everything. I mean, it’s not a happy life when you get through it.
我读过保罗·盖蒂 (Paul Getty) 的传记。1950 年代、1960 年代，他坐上了世界首富的宝座。他的一生非常有意思。他结过五次婚。他有一个孙子被绑架了，绑匪给他送来了一只耳朵。读完他的传记，就知道了，他的一生并不幸福。
But the one, one thing he did that was kind of interesting, he actually liked to use codicils because I think he had like 25 of them. And it was kind of his way of writing, well, I’m taking you out of the will because, you know, and so he sort of delighted in explaining through his will how he felt about all these people.
保罗·盖蒂的遗嘱很另类，他在遗嘱后面加了 25 条附则。在有的附则中，他写道，我把你从遗嘱中排除在外是因为……他经常通过修改遗嘱的方式，表达自己对别人的好恶。
I mean, you really get some strange things revealed in a will. I just read about a will of a fellow that made a whole lot of money and was leaving it to his, I don’t know whether it was children, grandchildren, whatever it may have been, but in any event, his opening line and his will is, and this was done some years ago, but I know something about the family. His opening line, in effect, said, I’m writing this will while I am writing in the economy section of Eastern Airlines, number such and such. I mean, he believed in getting right to the point of what the people who were recipients, how they should live, and he was going to be judging them.
有的遗嘱非常有个性。我读过这样一个遗嘱，也是一位有钱人写的，他把自己的财富留给了子女。在遗嘱开头，他是这么写的，“立下此份遗嘱之时，我正坐在东方航空 (Eastern Airlines) 某某次航班的经济舱中。”这个人我认识。他很直接，自己的后代该如何生活，他的要求很明确。
It’s just sodamned interesting to watch people’s wills. But one guy left a lot of money to his wife on the condition that she remarry, so that at least one man would mourn his passing.
人们立的遗嘱真是千奇百怪。有这样一个人，他给自己的妻子留下了一大笔钱。但是他在遗嘱中规定，只有她的妻子再婚，才能继承这笔钱。这样一来，他妻子的新丈夫就会悼念他了，想着他要是活着该多好。（笑声）
Well, I’m not giving legal advice here, as I always say, but I feel very, very, very good about how things have turned out.
我只是在讲我自己对遗嘱的理解，不是给大家提法律建议。我对自己的一生非常知足、非常满意。
And I wish I could figure out ways better to use the really vast resources I’ve got into some of the really important questions of the world, but I haven’t been able to do that. I had a few goals when I was 30 or 40, and may have written them in the wills then, in terms of what the world needed done and how the money could be used. And unfortunately, I decided that they weren’t feasible to accomplish. And of course I was setting out to accomplish things that were important. Nobody’s solved yet, so you got to expect that why should I be able to solve them?
我曾经想利用我积累的巨大财富解决一些重大的世界问题，但是我发现我做不到。三四十岁的时候，我心中有几个宏大的志向，我以为可以用自己的财富，为解决世界难题出一份力。可惜，后来我发现，我的想法行不通。毕竟，我要解决的是世界难题，至今还没人给出解决办法，我解决不了也很正常。
But nevertheless, it’s an interesting - and the one thing about it is everybody here, I don’t know about the ones who’ve come from other countries, but you should have a will, because if you don’t have a will, you still have a will, and it’ll be whatever the state says. And it’s amazing. Four american presidents died intestate without wills. Four, you know, we’ve only had 45.
在座的各位，我不知道其它国家的情况，但是在美国，每个人都应该立一份遗嘱，你自己不立遗嘱的话，你的遗产将按照法律继承顺序分配，未必符合你的意愿。令人想不到的是，美国有四位总统死后没留下遗嘱。一共 45 位总统，其中有 4 位没立遗嘱。
And imagine becoming president of the United States and not having a will. But you can look up somebody recently, I think, Lincoln, I’m certain Lincoln was one of the four. And here’s a man, I mean, I don’t know what you can always say. Well, he didn’t get around to it, but that’s hard to imagine why Abraham Lincoln would have died intestate. I’m sure we’ve got some Lincoln scholars out there that will write me after this and explain why, and I’ll be interested to receive their letters.
身居美国总统的高位，竟然没立遗嘱。我没记错的话，林肯总统就是其中一位。显然，用没时间这个理由解释，很牵强。我想不明白，为什么亚伯拉罕·林肯 (Abraham Lincoln) 没留遗嘱。如果有研究林肯的专家，知道其中的缘由，请写信给我。
But human beings are human beings, and we all have weaknesses and peculiarities and everything else. And don’t be too hard on yourself, because you have some of those. But don’t be totally forgiving either. You can change the future. You can’t change the past, but you can change the future.
人无完人，谁都难免有些缺点和毛病。别对自己太苛刻，也别对自己太松懈。过去就过去了，无法改变，但未来在你手中。
Okay? Station six.
好，第 6 区。
问题 34：谁都无法预料AI 未来将如何演化
QUESTIONER: Good afternoon. My name is Caroline and I’m a lawyer in San Diego. Please don’t hold that again with me. Remember, Mr Munger was once an attorney too. First, I’d like to sincerely thank you, Mr Buffett, for your business integrity, tireless leadership, and generous contribution to philanthropy. My question for the distinguished panel of two is, now that the AI genie is out of the bottle, as someone astutely put it earlier today, what business in Berkshire Hathaway may be most at risk with AI.
**
问题 34：下午好。我叫 Caroline，我是一名律师，来自圣地亚哥。首先，巴菲特先生，我向您表达敬意，您在商业中恪守道德，您为股东勤恳工作，您把绝大部分财富捐赠给慈善事业。上午，您说了，AI 已经冒出头来了。我想请教两位，伯克希尔·哈撒韦的哪些生意最容易受到 AI 的冲击？**
WARREN BUFFETT: Well, that’s a wonderful question. The problem is I really don’t know anything about AI, obviously, anything that’s labor intensive and that it can create an enormous amount of leisure time. Now, what the world does with leisure time is another question, whether more leisure time. I know an awful lot of people think when they go to work at first what they want is leisure time. And what I like is actually having more problems to solve. But AI is profound. That’s what makes it, makes it a genie. Is what going to happen?
**
巴菲特：你提的问题很好，可是我并不了解 AI。也许劳动密集型的行业可能受到影响。AI 可能给人们带来大量闲暇时间。有了闲暇时间之后，人们怎么用，那就不知道了。我只知道很多人不愿意工作，从上班的第一天起，就一直盼着什么时候能休息。我则不然，我对工作的态度是乐在其中。AI 的威力很大，所以把它比喻成瓶子中的妖怪。将来如何，谁都无法预料。**
I could tell a few genie jokes but I better not. I guess. When we probably, I don’t know what, you know, in terms of our businesses, they’ll figure things out. I mean, we’ve got smart people. Obviously, if it’s used in a pro social way, it’s got terrific benefits to society. But I don’t know how you make sure that that’s what happens any more than I know how to be sure that when you use two atomic bombs in World War Two that you knew that you hadn’t created something that could destroy the world later on.
我想起了几个关于妖怪的笑话，还是不说为妙。至于说伯克希尔的生意会受到什么影响，我们的管理层知道该怎么做，他们非常有能力。显然，AI 用好了的话，能给社会带来巨大的好处。二战时扔了两颗原子弹，是福是祸，尚未可知。今天的 AI 也是一样，谁也不敢保证将来一定能用好。
GREG ABEL: Yeah, I think when we think of AI at a lot of the business units, I mean, we’re truly one, trying to think how does it make us more efficient, more effective? I mean, it results in more idle time. And we’re probably not thinking of the iterative AI where we’re looking at very specific processes where our people can implement it. And either at times it displaces the labor, but then hopefully there’s other opportunities for them within the business. But I think when you think of all our businesses, I mean, we do have a heavy labor workforce and a lot of them, but I think at the stage we’re at as a company and maybe where it’s at right now, it’s really around how do we do things more effective, more efficiently, more safely, if it involves dangerous processes? So we’re early innings.
**
格雷格：在我们的很多业务分部，我们主要用 AI 来提高工作效率。我们现在还没使用具备迭代能力的 AI。我们只是把 AI 用于实际工作中，简化某些流程。AI 有可能导致工作岗位减少。对于受影响的员工，我们尽量在公司内为他们寻找其它工作机会。伯克希尔的很多子公司确实拥有大量员工，属于劳动密集型。在现阶段，我们主要利用 AI 让工作更高效、更安全。在利用 AI 方面，我们才刚起步。**
WARREN BUFFETT: John Maynard Keynes was just wonderful to read and incredible mind. But in around the time I was born, he wrote a book about what could happen. I don’t know whether it was in the next hundred years or whatever. And he predicted correctly that that output per capita would grow at this incredible rate that it has. But in terms of speculating as what people would do with that, I mean, this guy was unbelievably smart, but it hasn’t developed exactly the way he predicted. He was right about what was going to go into the equation, but he wasn’t. He didn’t have it figured out exactly what at all, what would be the result?
**
巴菲特：约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯 (John Maynard Keynes) 可谓智商超群，他写的书，我很爱读。1930 年左右，也就是我出生的那年，他写了一篇文章预测未来，文章的名字是《我们后代的经济前景》(Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren)。凯恩斯预测出了经济的高速发展，他对人均国内生产总值增速的预测完全准确。然而，经济高速发展给社会带来了哪些变化，他的预测与现实却有很大出入。凯恩斯，一个智商如此之高的人，都没预测对。他对经济发展的预测是对的，但是由此带来的社会变化，他没预测对。他根本没想到，经济高速发展之后，社会发生了现在这样的变化。[译注：例如，他的预测之一是，随着经济的发展，人们的工作时间将减少，有更多时间用于休闲和艺术。但是，从现在的情况看，生产力大幅提高后，人们的工作时间仍然很长。]**
So it is really, well, we didn’t know when we were developing the bomb that there would probably be this very soon nine countries, three of whom we should worry about plenty that will have what they have, but we didn’t really have any choice.
当初，研究核武器的时候，我们也没想到未来的后果。现在已经有 9 个国家掌握了核武器，而其中 3 个国家让人担忧。
And you could have had all kinds of papers written on and everything else, but we were going to do it anyway. We needed to do it. And if you haven’t read it, it’s fascinating to go to Google and read the letter by Leo Szilard and Albert Einstein to President Roosevelt, written about a month before, almost exactly a month before Germany moved into Poland. And it laid out well, Leo Szilard knew what was going to happen or had a good hunch of what was going to happen in terms of nuclear bomb development.
当时，我们别无选择。那时候也不是没经过考虑和研究，但已经迫在眉睫，容不得迟疑了。大家可以去谷歌搜索一下利奥·西拉德 (Leo Szilard) 和阿尔伯特·爱因斯坦 (Albert Einstein) 写给罗斯福总统的信。写完那封信之后一个月，德国就闪击了波兰。那封信逻辑清晰、论证严密。利奥·西拉德知道，一旦德国先开发出原子弹，后果不堪设想。为了引起罗斯福总统的重视，他请爱因斯坦联名上书。这封信，意义重大，我读了很震撼。正是因为这封信，我们启动了曼哈顿计划。可以说，这封信对历史进程产生了深刻的影响。
And he couldn’t get through to Roosevelt. But he knew that a letter signed by Albert Einstein would. So it’s probably the most important letter ever written and you can read it, which is just fascinating to me, but that started the Manhattan project. That started it. Just everything flowed out of it. And I’ll bet anything that Roosevelt didn’t understand it, but he understood that Albert Einstein sent a letter and he probably knew what he was talking about. And he better get, he better start the Manhattan project. It is just unbelievable what happens in this world.
我相信罗斯福总统也不懂原子弹，但是他知道，爱因斯坦写信来了，一定事关重大，毕竟爱因斯坦是大物理学家。于是，他就启动了曼哈顿计划。谁能想到，一封信改写了历史。
Anyway, let’s move on to Becky, I guess, is next, right?
好了，继续。该贝琪了吧？
问题 35：美联储应控制通货膨胀
BECKY QUICK: Yep. Randy Jeffs from Irvine, California. The March 25, 2024 Wall Street Journal reported that the treasury market is about six fold larger than before the 2008-2009 crisis. Do you think that at some point in time the world market will no longer be able to absorb all of the US debt being offered?
**
问题 35：是的。以下问题来自加州尔湾市 (Irvine) 的 Randy Jeffs。根据 2024 年 3 月 25 日《华尔街日报》(Wall Street Journal) 的报道，目前的美国国债市场规模已经达到了 2008 年金融危机之前的七倍。美国国债的规模如此之大，将来是否可能有一天，全球的投资者不愿再购买美国国债？**
WARREN BUFFETT: Well, I would say the answer, of course, I don’t know, but my best speculation is that US debt will be acceptable but for a very long time because there’s not much alternative. But it won’t be the quantity. The national debt was nothing to speak of for a long, long time. It won’t be the quantity. It will be whether in any way inflation would get let loose in a way that really threatened the whole world economic situation.
巴菲特：我不知道。我估计，在未来的很长时间里，美国国债将仍然被广为接受。毕竟，美元拥有不可替代的地位。关键不是国债的数量。在过去的很长时间里，美国的负债水平很低。关键不在于负债数量。主要看我们能否控制得住通货膨胀，避免美国通胀给全球经济造成冲击。
And there really isn’t any alternative to the dollar as a reserve currency. And you get a lot of people who give you a lot of speeches on that, but that really is the answer. And Paul Volcker worried about that back in 1979, before 1980, but he had threats on his life.
美元作为储备货币的地位不可取代。关于美国国债的讨论众说纷纭，其实关键就两点：第一，控制通货膨胀；第二，保持美元的储备货币地位。在控制通货膨胀方面，保罗·沃尔克 (Paul Volcker) 做出过重大贡献。1979 年，他出任美联储主席，为了遏制通货膨胀，实施了空前紧缩的货币政策，甚至因此遭到了人身安全威胁。
And I happened to have a little contact with him at that time. He was an amazing amazing fellow that, in effect, decided that he had to act or really the financial system would fall apart in some way that he couldn’t predict. And he did it and he had people threatening his life and do all kinds of things, but he was the man for that crisis. But it wasn’t the quantity of US debt that was being offered that threatened the system then. It was the fact that inflation and the future value of the dollar, the cash is trash type thinking that turned, that was setting up something that could really affect the future of the world in terms of its economic system. And Paul Volcker took it on and he was (inaudible) as could be. And if you haven’t read a book or two about him or the one he last wrote, you really ought to take a look at it.
我与沃尔克有过一面之缘。保罗·沃尔克很坚决，他知道，如果自己不采取严厉的措施，后果很严重，整个金融体系可能土崩瓦解。他毅然决然地祭出霹雳手段，即使收到了人身威胁，也毫不畏惧。多亏了他挺身而出，1970 年代的大通胀才得以平息。在那场危机中，真正威胁经济的，不是美国国债的数量，而是通货膨胀高企，美元面临贬值风险。随着通货膨胀加剧，现金可能成为垃圾，这才是当时世界经济面临的最大风险。保罗·沃尔克挺身而出，力挽狂澜。市面上有几本关于沃尔克的书，他自己也写了一本自传，我建议大家找来读一读。
But it is, I don’t worry about the quantity, I worry about the fiscal deficit, but I’m not a worrier just generally, I mean I think about it, but I don’t sit and get up, work myself into a stew about it in the least. But I, but I can’t help thinking about it and that’s, we’ve got a, we’ve got a great attention. It’s interesting, I think media enters into this and focuses on the Fed and they, you know, they just love it because things are always happening and economists are always saying what’s going to happen with the fed and everything else. But the fiscal deficit is what should be focused on. And Jay Powell is not only a great human being, but he’s, he’s a very, very wise man, but he doesn’t control fiscal policy.
让我担忧的不是国债规模，而是财政赤字。我不是一个自寻烦恼的人。我琢磨这些问题，但不至于把自己搞到忧心忡忡的地步。我对这些问题还是很关心的。新闻媒体总是盯着美联储。美联储一有什么风吹草动，媒体就铺天盖地的报道，并找来各路经济学家解读。真正应该关注的是财政赤字。杰伊·鲍威尔 (Jay Powell) 论品格、论能力，都没的说，但是财政政策不在他的管辖范围之内。
And every now and then he sends out a kind of a disguised plea for please pay attention to this because that’s where the trouble will be if we have it. As one of the comics used to say, there was a stand up comic used to say, who have I forgotten to offend after this talk? And I always feel like that after these meetings. But we’ve got time for at least one question and maybe two. But let’s go to station seven.
他只能偶尔旁敲侧击，恳请有关方面关注财政赤字。将来真出问题的话，问题一定出在财政赤字。（掌声）以前有个说相声的，他讲完之后，说了这么一句话：“还有我没得罪的人吗？”每次开股东会，我在台上夸夸其谈。讲完之后，我总觉得得罪了很多人。还剩一点时间，再来一两个问题。请第 7 区提问。
问题 36：不要因为悔恨过去而蹉跎岁月
QUESTIONER: Hello, my name is Dennis from Giffon, Germany.
**
问题 36：您好，我叫 Dennis，来自德国吉夫霍恩 (Gifhorn, Germany)。**
By my first time here, I’m here with my friend who would, by the way, love to invite you to dinner. You talked about the importance of heroes, and we are very happy to and thankful that we have you as our hero with great values and thank you for that. First of all, my question is, it is clear that you achieved great success in life. Earlier you talked about every investment having opportunity cost. From what I’ve learned in life, that does not only apply it to investing your money, but also to investing your time.
这是我第一次参加股东大会。我和我朋友一起来的。我朋友很想请您吃饭。您刚才讲到了榜样非常重要。我们很幸运，有您作为榜样，您的价值观值得我们学习，请允许我向您表示感谢。我的问题是这样的。众所周知，您在生活中取得了巨大的成功。您告诉我们，每笔投资都有机会成本。从我个人的经验来讲，投资中有机会成本，生活中的时间安排也有机会成本。
Every hour you spend in your office is an hour you cannot spend with your spouse or children. With the life experience you have now, if you had the possibility to start all over again, would you set your priorities any different? If yes, how and why? And what’s the best way to invite you to dinner?
同样一个小时，用来工作了，就没办法陪伴家人了。您的一生阅历丰富，如果您再活一次，您会把什么看的最重？您会重新安排您的追求吗？另外，请问如何才能请您吃饭？（笑声）
WARREN BUFFETT: That definitely won’t be one of my priorities if I figure out how to do that. But don’t take it personally, because you can figure out at the maximum all the period I’ve got.
巴菲特：你说的请我吃饭这件事，如果我真懂机会成本的话，我肯定不会把这件事排在前面。（笑声）别介意啊，毕竟我这把年纪了，剩下的时间是有数的。
I don’t think, I mean, I can figure out all kinds of things that should have been done differently, but so what, you know, I mean, I’m not perfect. I don’t believe in lots of self criticism or being unrealistic about either what you are or what you’ve accomplished or what you’d like to do. You do the, you know, you do a lot of things and who knows whether somewhat different trade offs. You know, you just can’t, you can’t.
很多事，不像当时那么做，我可以做得更好。但又能怎样呢？我不是一个完人。自己是一个什么样的人？取得了多大的成功？将来要做什么？面对这些问题，还是现实一些比较好，别太自责，别太苛求。很多事，重新来过，换一种做法，结果就更好吗？未必。
You don’t know what the paths would have led. I feel. I don’t think there’s any, any room in beating up yourself over what’s happened in the past. It’s happened and you get to live the rest of the life and you don’t know how long it’s going to be. And you keep trying to do the things that are important to you.
当站在岔路口时，选择了其中的一条路，我们并不知道这条路将通向何方。过去的事，就让它过去吧。人的精力有限，总想着自己怎么做错了，就没法干别的了。生活还要继续，没人知道自己的时间还剩多久。别停下脚步，继续做你觉得重要的事。
If I was a doctor or if I was all kinds of different professions, I might do different things, but I really enjoy managing money for people who trust me. I don’t have any reason to do it for financial reasons. I’m not running a hedge fund or getting an override or anything, but I just like the feeling of being trusted. Charlie felt the same way.
如果我没有做投资，而是成了一名医生，或者从事了其它职业，我的人生可能完全不同。我还是最喜欢做投资，为信任我的人管理资金，我觉得很快乐。我早就不缺钱了，没必要为了钱而工作。我管理的不是对冲基金，也不收管理费。我仍然在工作，是因为我喜欢这种被信任的感觉。查理也是如此。
You know, that’s a good way to feel in life and it continues to be a good feeling. So I’m not really looking to change much. And, you know, if I’m very lucky, I get to play it off for six or seven years and it could end tomorrow. But that’s. That’s true of everybody. Although the equation isn’t exactly the same.
被别人信任是一种非常好的感觉，心里一直觉得很温暖。我现在过得很好，没什么想改变的。运气好的话，我还能干个六七年，也可能明天就结束了。谁都有这一天，就是早晚不同而已。
But I don’t believe in beating yourself up over anything you’ve done in the past. And I don’t believe in, well, I believe in trying to find what you’re good at, what you enjoy. And then I think the one thing that you can aspire to be, because this can be done by anybody and it’s amazing, doesn’t have anything to do with money. But you can be kind.
总之，不要因为悔恨过去而蹉跎岁月。珍惜时间，找到自己擅长的事、喜欢的事。还有一点，人人可以做到，和钱毫无关系。追求做一个善良的人。
You can be kind if you’re. And then the world’s better off.
因为你的善良，世界将变得更好。（掌声）
I’m not sure that the world will be better off if I’m richer, but there’s no question that. I mean, you know, kind people, and in the end, aspire to be more. Or I’m sure many of you are yourself, but just aspire to be more.
我钱再多，世界未必变得更好。善良的人却能让世界变得更好。我相信你们中的很多人非常善良，大家不妨在今后的生活中再多一些善良。
So. And I guess we can take one more question from Becky, and then we’d wind up.
我们应该还可以回答一个问题，请贝琪提问。答完之后，本次会议结束。
问题 37：责任感的传承重于财产
BECKY QUICK: This question comes from Devon Spurgeon. On March 4, Charlie’s will was filed with the county of Los Angeles. The first codicil contained an unusual provision. It reads, averaged out, my long life has been a favored one, made better by duty, imposed by family tradition, requiring righteousness and service. Therefore, I follow an old practice that I wish was more common now, inserting an ethical bequeath that gives priority not to property, but to transmission of duty. If you were to make an ethical bequest to Berkshire shareholders, what duties would you impose and why?
**
问题 37：以下问题来自 Devon Spurgeon。3 月 4 日，查理的遗嘱进入法院认证程序。在查理的遗嘱中，第一条附则很特别。查理是这么写的：“总的来说，我这漫长的一生美满而幸福。因为我懂得责任感，我的生活更加幸福。我的责任感源于家族传承，我的长辈要求我懂得正义和奉献。在此，秉承家族传统，我首先要赠予后代的是道德。我把责任感传给你们，责任感的传承重于财产。”如果您要向伯克希尔的股东传承一项道德，请问这个道德是什么？**
WARREN BUFFETT: I’d probably say read, Charlie. I mean, he’s expressed it well, and I would. Well, I would say that if they’re not financially well off, if you’re being kind, you’re doing something that most of the rich people don’t do, even when they give away money. But that’s on the question of whether you’re rich or poor. And I would say, if you’re lucky in life, make sure a bunch of other people are lucky, too. Okay. Just in case. You know what my advice to myself would be has been during this period.
**
巴菲特：我可能会说，读芒格。查理已经说得很好了。我想说，没钱也没关系，只要你善良，你就比很多有钱人强。 哪怕有钱人捐再多的钱，他们也比不上你的善良。其实，善良与否，和钱多钱少没关系。上天给了你好运气，别忘了分一些给别人。（掌声）给大家看一下，今天开会，我送给自己的两个字是什么。[译注：巴菲特翻开展示牌的背面，上面写着“闭嘴”(Shut up)。]（笑声）**
So we only got 33 questions, or whatever it is. But thank you very, very much for coming, and I not only hope that you come next year, but I hope I come next year.
今天只回答了 30 多个问题。非常感谢大家。希望你们明年再来，希望我也能再来。（笑声、掌声、欢呼声）
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译者注：文中采用英文版本为Julius Robert Oppenheimer。RANRAN采用的英文版本为Edward Teller ，这里采用前一个版本。1942年，奥本海默受命主持曼哈顿计划，1943年以后领导位于新墨西哥州的洛斯阿拉莫斯实验室。在他的主导下，曼哈顿计划取得重大成功。1945年7月16日，他见证人类史上首次核试验“三位一体”核试验在新墨西哥州进行。最终，美国以原子弹轰炸日本广岛及长崎，结束第二次世界大战，这是原子武器唯一一次投入实战使用。