原文信息：
- 标题：Rediscovering Berkshire Hathaway’s 1985 Annual Meeting
- 作者：Kingswell
- 发表时间：2023-08-29
- 链接：Kingswell
- 整理（机翻校译）：Terrellchen
再现伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司 1985 年年会
There’s just one drawback: CNBC’s archive of these Berkshire Q&A sessions only dates back to 1994. The University of Berkshire Hathaway, written by Daniel Pecaut and Corey Wrenn, fills in some of the gaps — but only back to 1986.
有个缺憾： CNBC 的伯克希尔问答会档案只能追溯到 1994 年。丹尼尔-佩科特和科里-沃伦撰写的《波克夏大學》填补了部分空白，但只追溯到 1986 年。
As such, I feared that any comprehensive accounts of earlier annual meetings had been irrevocably lost in the mists of time.
因此，我担心关于早期年会的任何全面记录都已在时间的迷雾中不可挽回地消失了。
But, happily, I was wrong.
但令人欣慰的是，我错了。
I recently stumbled upon an Omaha World-Herald story written about Berkshire’s 1985 annual meeting. It’s certainly not perfect — some of Warren Buffett’s answers are paraphrased by the author rather than quoting him directly — but it’s the most information about this “lost” annual meeting that I’ve ever seen gathered together in one place. Written by someone who was actually there.
最近，我偶然发现了一篇《奥马哈世界先驱报》关于伯克希尔公司 1985 年年会的报道。这篇报道当然并不完美—沃伦-巴菲特的一些回答是作者转述的，而不是直接引用他的话—但这是我所见过的关于这次 “失落 “的年会的最多信息。由亲历者撰写。
In the mid-1980s, Berkshire Hathaway’s annual meeting was an entirely different beast than today’s weekend-long “Woodstock for Capitalists”. Attendees didn’t have to book their hotel rooms months in advance or wake up before dawn just to get in line outside of an arena. There was no mad rush for seats once the doors opened.
20 世纪 80 年代中期，伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司的年会与今天的 “资本家的伍德斯托克音乐节 “完全不同。与会者不必提前几个月预订酒店房间，也不必为了在会场外排队而在黎明前起床。门一打开，也不会出现疯狂抢座位的现象。
It was a quieter, simpler chapter in Berkshire’s history.
这是伯克希尔历史上更安静、更简单的篇章。
So quiet, in fact, that 1985’s annual meeting was held on a Tuesday. And, instead of a cavernous arena, Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger opted for the Red Lion Inn in downtown Omaha. Approximately 250 shareholders attended the meeting and the ensuing Q&A session lasted only — only? — two hours.
While 250 attendees might sound laughably tiny by current standards, the growing crowd spurred Berkshire to move future meetings to a more spacious auditorium in Omaha’s Joslyn Art Museum. Just five years earlier, in 1980, the headcount was thirty.
虽然以现在的标准来衡量，250 名与会者听起来可能少得可笑，但越来越多的人促使伯克希尔将以后的会议搬到了奥马哈乔斯林艺术博物馆更宽敞的礼堂。而就在五年前的 1980 年，会议人数只有 30 人。
The most shocking difference, though, had nothing to do with location or attendance. As Warren Buffett fielded questions from shareholders that day, he sipped on a Pepsi (which, back then, was still his beverage of choice).
不过，最令人震惊的不同之处与会议地点或出席人数无关。那天，当巴菲特回答股东们的问题时，他喝着百事可乐（当时，百事可乐仍是他的首选饮料）。
Some things, though, never change:
不过，有些事情永远不会改变：
Buffett drew laughter with his quick wit. When Berkshire secretary Verne McKenzie tested his microphone with “one, two, three”, Buffett quickly spoke into his microphone: “One million, two million, three million.”
Here are some of the highlights from this (very) early episode of the Warren & Charlie Show…
以下是《沃伦与查理秀》早期节目的部分精彩片段…
HOW TO VALUE A BUSINESS
如何为企业估值
“Do a lot of reading,” replied Buffett.
“多读书，“巴菲特回答道。
Generally speaking, he recommended the writings of Benjamin Graham and Philip Fisher for those trying to sharpen their investment mindset — and annual reports and trade magazines for evaluating particular businesses and industries.
一般来说，他推荐那些试图提高投资思维的人阅读本杰明-格雷厄姆（Benjamin Graham）和菲利普-费雪（Philip Fisher）的著作，推荐年度报告和行业杂志来评估特定企业和行业。
Reading, he insisted, is more important than speaking with company executives or other investors. In fact, Buffett admitted that he had recently purchased a substantial amount of Exxon stock before talking to any of that company’s executives. “You’re not going to get any brilliant insights walking into the [Exxon] building,” he said.
他坚持认为，阅读比与公司高管或其他投资者交谈更重要。事实上，巴菲特承认，他最近在与埃克森公司的任何一位高管交谈之前，就购买了大量该公司的股票。“他说：“走进埃克森公司的大楼，你不会得到任何真知灼见。
And, at least in the money game, size matters.
至少在金钱游戏中，规模很重要。
It’s easier to determine the value of a large business than a small one, Buffett said. If someone buys a gas station, for example, another station opening across the street could have a major effect on the value of the first station.
巴菲特说，确定大企业的价值比确定小企业的价值要容易得多。例如，如果有人买下了一家加油站，那么街对面开张的另一家加油站可能会对第一家加油站的价值产生重大影响。
DIVIDEND DILEMMA
股息窘境
In 1985, it had been nearly twenty years since Berkshire Hathaway last paid a dividend. The company (wisely) reasoned that Warren Buffett could reinvest this excess capital at higher rates of return than shareholders could themselves, so any dividend would ultimately prove counterproductive.
Berkshire actually polled its shareholders on this subject and Buffett announced the results at the annual meeting.
The company, which has 3,100 shareholders, received 2,022 responses.
这家拥有 3100 名股东的公司收到了 2022 份回复。
88% of those responding said they favored the company’s current policy of reinvesting earnings rather than paying dividends to shareholders.
88%的受访者表示，他们赞成公司目前将盈利再投资而不是向股东分红的政策。
A similar percentage also approved of Berkshire’s policy towards charitable contributions — in which individual shareholders designate which charity receives their share of the overall contribution.
类似比例的人还赞成伯克希尔公司的慈善捐款政策，即由股东个人指定哪家慈善机构接收他们在整个捐款中所占的份额。
WHAT ABOUT INFLATION?
通货膨胀问题
Being the mid-1980s, the scourge of inflation was understandably a hot topic — leading one shareholder to ask Warren Buffett for his prediction on where inflation would go in the future.
Buffett conceded that there was a small chance — maybe 5% — of runaway inflation occurring at some point in the years ahead. “That shouldn’t happen,” he said, “but we can’t rule it out.”
Instead, Buffett predicted “moderate inflation” of about 7% as the most likely possibility. But, of course, he “stressed [that] he is reluctant to predict a precise inflation percentage”.
相反，巴菲特预测最有可能出现的是 7% 左右的 “温和通胀”。当然，他 “强调他不愿意预测一个精确的通胀率”。
THE POST-BUFFETT ERA
后巴菲特时代
If you listen to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders (or BPL partners before them), Warren Buffett has had one foot in the grave for decades. Almost no annual meeting goes by without a question (or two) about what will happen to Berkshire after Buffett shuffles off this mortal coil.
“If something happened to me tomorrow,” Buffett patiently replied in 1985, “Berkshire will not be sold and parts of it will not be sold.”
And, although he didn’t explicitly outline his succession plan, he reassured shareholders that Charlie Munger would step into the breach in his absence. “Charlie and I think alike,” said Buffett.
Other than that, it would be business as usual for Berkshire.
除此之外，伯克希尔公司一切照旧。
Buffett said he doesn’t want to anticipate his departure by having unnecessary people in his corporate office. “With lots of help, we’d do worse,” he said.
巴菲特说，他不想在公司办公室安排多余的人，以防他离开。“他说：“如果有很多人帮忙，我们会做得更糟。
CAPITAL ALLOCATION
资本分配
Does Warren Buffett prefer to buy whole businesses (like See’s Candies or Nebraska Furniture Mart) or blocks of common stock that represent partial ownership (like the Washington Post or Capital Cities/ABC)?
沃伦-巴菲特更喜欢购买整个企业（如 See’s Candies 或 Nebraska Furniture Mart），还是购买代表部分所有权的普通股（如《华盛顿邮报》或 Capital Cities/ABC）？
Buffett: “We would really like a collection of whole businesses that meet our [investment] standards.”
巴菲特：“我们真的希望拥有一系列符合我们投资标准的整个企业。
However, he said, there have been more investment opportunities in marketable securities in recent months. “[But] there are not many opportunities in either area right now.”
不过，他说，最近几个月可交易证券的投资机会更多了。“[但是]现在这两个领域的机会都不多。”
CAN BERKSHIRE KEEP UP THE PACE?
伯克希尔能否保持增长速度？
In 1984, Berkshire Hathaway’s growth in net worth slowed to 13.6% — far below the 20+% annual growth that shareholders had grown accustomed to over the previous two decades.
1984 年，伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司的净资产增长率放缓至 13.6%，远远低于股东们在过去二十年里已经习惯的 20% 以上的年增长率。
This led Warren Buffett to remind everyone of a fact that he had been repeating over and over since his partnership days: Berkshire will not grow as fast in the future as it has in the past.
(Of course, shareholders can be forgiven for treating Buffett a bit like The Boy Who Cried Wolf on this subject. He continually warned them about slowing returns dating all the way back to the 1960s, but then just kept on posting eye-popping gains year in and year out.)
Nevertheless, he once again cautioned the crowd to keep their expectations in check.
尽管如此，他还是再次告诫大家要控制好自己的预期。
“I can guarantee [that] we will not do as well as in the past,” said Buffett.
巴菲特说：“我可以保证，我们的业绩不会像过去那么好。”
There have been fewer undervalued companies and stocks to buy recently, Buffett said. He added that as his company has become larger, it has been harder to achieve the same percentage investment returns.
“I still think we may be able to do better than American industry as a whole.”
“我仍然认为，我们可能会比美国整个行业做得更好”。
And, on that last point, Buffett was right.
最后一点，巴菲特是对的。
Since May 21, 1985, Berkshire Hathaway has racked up a 15.9% annual return as compared to the S&P 500’s 11.1% mark. Not bad for a company that’s slowing down.
自 1985 年 5 月 21 日以来，伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司的年回报率达到 15.9%，而标准普尔 500 指数只有 11.1%。对于一家增长放缓的公司来说，这已经不错了。
A COUPLE OF LAUGHS & A ROUND OF APPLAUSE
轻松的笑声和热烈的掌声
No annual meeting is ever complete without some of that trademark Warren Buffett wit.
没有巴菲特标志性的机智，年会是不完整的。
- Will the federal deficit be substantially reduced? “I’ll believe it when I see it.”
- 联邦赤字会大幅减少吗？“我看到了就会相信”。
- What about so-called “junk” bonds? “I think they’ll live up to their name,” Buffett quipped.
At the end of the 1985 annual meeting, one shareholder stood up with a word of thanks for Messrs. Buffett and Munger: “On behalf of my children [who presumably will benefit from the increasing value of Berkshire Hathaway stock], I thank you two for working so hard.”
The rest of the crowd then joined in with a round of applause for the two men at the front of the room who had created such generational wealth for so many of them.
随后，在场的其他人一起为前面的两位先生鼓掌，他们为许多人创造了世代相传的财富。