In-Depth Selected Q&A: Investing in Apple
💡 Key Quotes
- “OPPO and Apple actually share many genes, which is one of the reasons I was finally able to understand Apple”
- “An important reason I like Apple’s business model comes from my 20+ years of experience in consumer electronics — Apple is the business model I always dreamed of but seemed hard to achieve”
- “Is there any other way besides researching the product?”
- “Good companies don’t need to be sold!”
- “Apple is a very rare enterprise that can maintain long-term focus on doing the right things”
❓ Selected Q&A
Q: Why were you able to understand Apple?
A: OPPO and Apple actually share many genes, which is one of the reasons I was finally able to understand Apple. (2011-08-07)
Q: What’s the reason you like Apple’s business model?
A: An important reason I like Apple’s business model comes from my 20+ years of experience in consumer electronics. Apple is the business model I always dreamed of but seemed hard to achieve. (2013-01-22)
Q: How do you understand what it means to “understand” a company?
A: Let me give an example of so-called understanding: take Apple. When I bought Apple in 2011, its market cap was roughly 300 billion (stock price at the time was 310/7=44), with 100 billion in net cash on hand, and profits were probably under 20 billion then. Based on my understanding of Apple, I thought Apple’s profits would likely grow significantly over the next 5 years or so, so I guessed 50 billion (last year it was 59.5 billion). So what I was thinking was very simple: using roughly 200 billion market cap to buy a company currently earning nearly 20 billion/year, that would earn 50 billion/year or more in about 5 years (and would continue doing well beyond that). If you have this conclusion, buying Apple is just simple arithmetic — you only need to decide based on your own opportunity cost. But reaching this conclusion is not easy; for me, it took at least 20 years of work. Being able to reach this conclusion is called “understanding.” (2019-05-20)
Q: What’s most important when researching a company?
A: Is there any other way besides researching the product? (2012-02-04)
Q: How should we understand that “Apple has maximized both the benefits of openness and closedness”?
A: I also feel Apple has maximized both the benefits of openness and closedness. I just bought a MacBook and took a one-hour one-on-one class, and suddenly discovered that Apple computers are also very easy to use. If I had thought to take this class 10 years ago, I’d be rich now. This is the best consumer experience I’ve ever had using a computer. (2011-03-01)
Q: How should we understand that “Apple is very rare in being able to maintain long-term focus on doing the right things”?
A: Apple is a very rare enterprise that can maintain long-term focus on “doing the right things.” Most people, when investing, habitually look at whether someone is “doing things right,” which easily leads them into short-term performance. Even great enterprises may make mistakes during the process of “doing the right things,” because “doing things right” often takes time. So-called “long-term investment,” from one perspective, means being able to believe that capable companies persisting in “doing the right things” will eventually “do things right.” (2013-02-13)
Q: When should you sell Apple?
A: Good companies don’t need to be sold! (2018-09-30)
Q: How should we understand “At 400 Apple is cheap, at 500 it’s still cheap, and at 600 it’s still cheap”?
A: Long ago I said, Apple at 400 is cheap, at 500 it’s still cheap, and when it reached 600 I still said it’s very cheap (before the 1-for-7 split). Looking now, isn’t it easier to understand? (2019-05-20)
🔗 Related Notes
Related Concepts 买股票就是买公司 · 未来现金流折现 · 能力圈 · 生意模式 Related People 段永平 Related Companies 苹果 · OPPO · 步步高 Related Topics 段永平的经典投资案例 · 如何研究一家公司
苹果投资深度篇精选
💡 核心金句
- “OPPO和APPLE其实有很多相同的基因，这也是我最后能看懂APPLE的原因之一”
- “本人喜欢苹果生意模式的很重要的一点来自于自己在消费电子20多年的体验，苹果是我一直梦寐以求但似乎难以达到的生意模式”
- “不研究产品难道还有别的办法？”
- “好公司是不需要卖的！”
- “苹果是非常难见到的能够长期focus在做对的事情的企业”
❓ 精选问答
问：为什么能看懂苹果？
答：OPPO和APPLE其实有很多相同的基因，这也是我最后能看懂APPLE的原因之一。（2011-08-07）
问：喜欢苹果生意模式的原因是什么？
答：本人喜欢苹果生意模式的很重要的一点来自于自己在消费电子20多年的体验，苹果是我一直梦寐以求但似乎难以达到的生意模式。（2013-01-22）
问：怎么理解”懂”一家公司？
答：举个所谓懂的例子：比如苹果，我在2011年买苹果的时候，苹果大概3000亿市值（当时股价310/7=44），手里有1000亿净现金，那时候利润大概不到200亿。以我对苹果的理解，我认为苹果未来5年左右赢利大概率会涨很多，所以我就猜个500亿（去年595亿）。所以当时想的东西非常简单，用2000亿左右市值买个目前赚接近200亿/年，未来5左右会赚到500亿/年或以上的公司（而且还会往后继续很好）。如果有这个结论，买苹果不过是个简单算术题，你只要根据你自己的机会成本就可以决定了。但得到这个结论非常不容易，对我来说至少20年功夫吧。能得到这个结论，就叫懂了。（2019-05-20）
问：研究公司最重要的是什么？
答：不研究产品难道还有别的办法？（2012-02-04）
问：苹果把开放和封闭的好处都做到极致了，这句话怎么理解？
答：我也觉得苹果把开放和封闭的好处都做到极致了。我刚刚买了一台Macbook，去上了一个小时的一对一的课，突然发现原来苹果的电脑也很好用。如果10年前我想起来去上个这个课的话，我就发达了。这是我用电脑以来消费感受最好的一次。（2011-03-01）
问：苹果是非常难见到的能够长期focus在做对的事情的企业，这句话怎么理解？
答：苹果是非常难见到的能够长期focus在”做对的事情”的企业。多数人在投资时很习惯去看有没有”把事情做对”这点，从而会很容易掉进短期表现当中。即使是伟大的企业在”做对的事情”的过程当中也是可能会犯错的，因为”把事情做对”往往需要一个过程。所谓”长期投资”从某种角度上说，就是要能够相信坚持”做对的事情”的有能力的公司最后会”把事情做对”。（2013-02-13）
问：什么时候卖苹果？
答：好公司是不需要卖的！（2018-09-30）
问：苹果400块很便宜，500块也很便宜，到600时依然很便宜，这句话怎么理解？
答：很久以前我说过，苹果400块很便宜，500块也很便宜，到600时我依然说还是很便宜（在1/7之前），现在看是不是就容易明白了？（2019-05-20）
🔗 相关笔记
相关概念 买股票就是买公司 · 未来现金流折现 · 能力圈 · 生意模式 相关人物 段永平 相关公司 苹果 · OPPO · 步步高 相关主题 段永平的经典投资案例 · 如何研究一家公司