分红、回购与资本配置篇精选
Selected Quotes on Dividends, Buybacks & Capital Allocation
💡 Core Golden Quotes
- “Actually, every stock has only one real buyer who ultimately affects the stock price—everyone else’s impact is just noise. That real buyer is the company itself”
- “Truly profitable good companies will eventually return profits to shareholders through some channel or channels”
- “Good companies are those that know how to spend money”
- “Cash sitting on the books depreciates if not used”
- “In the long run, stock splits are meaningless except for slightly increasing transaction costs”
❓ Selected Q&A
Q: Are buybacks or dividends better?
A: Actually, whether a company buys back shares or pays dividends isn’t key to return rates. But truly profitable good companies will eventually return profits to shareholders through some channel or channels, unless they can use their excess money like Old Buffett to consistently achieve above-average returns on reinvestment. (2015-11-16)
Q: How should we understand that every stock has only one real buyer?
A: Actually, every stock has only one real buyer who ultimately affects the stock price—everyone else’s impact is just noise. That real buyer is the company itself; money for buying stocks comes from earnings. (2013-03-02)
Q: How should we understand “good companies are those that know how to spend money”?
A: Good companies are those that know how to spend money. On this point, Netease isn’t a good company—it has too much cash lying around. Cash on the books depreciates if not used! Moutai doesn’t do too well on this either, though compared to others they still have plenty of “surplus.” (2014-06-06)
Q: What’s the difference between Apple and Moutai in terms of capital allocation?
A: Moutai’s business model is good, but how it handles its earned money isn’t entirely satisfactory. Apple is perfect in this regard. You can see this from how completely differently these two companies behaved when buyback opportunities arose over the past two years. Moutai even had something ridiculous: dividends actually decreased because the stock price dropped. Apple’s explanation of its dividend and buyback strategy is very clear—as a shareholder you can basically predict it, while Moutai gets influenced by non-shareholder factors. (2015-04-09)
Q: Do stock splits have any meaning?
A: In the long run, stock splits are meaningless except for slightly increasing transaction costs! (2014-03-25)
Q: What’s Apple’s valuation logic?
A: My “valuation” of Apple is just an example with only two aspects—simple enough to explain in a few sentences (roughly):
- Over 300 billion market cap, over 100 billion net cash, 40 billion annual net profit, which will reach 50 billion or more in the future;
- Apple will return profits to shareholders in appropriate ways.
The second point is harder to understand in A-shares—that’s also why when blog readers asked whether I’d choose Apple or Moutai, I unhesitatingly chose Apple. (2014-11-15)
Q: What’s the best investment target in RMB investing?
A: I’ve mentioned this on my blog: among RMB investments I can understand, Moutai is the best target. (2014-11-15)
🔗 Related Notes
Related Concepts Discounted Future Cash Flow · Business Model · Moat Related People Duan Yongping · Warren Buffett Related Companies Apple · Moutai · Netease Related Topics How to Value Companies · Duan Yongping’s Classic Investment Cases
分红、回购与资本配置篇精选
💡 核心金句
- “其实所有的股票都只有一个真正的买家会最终影响到股价，其他人对股价的影响都是浮云。这个真正的买家就是公司自己”
- “真正能赚到钱的好公司最后都一定会通过某个或某几个途径将利润给到股东的”
- “好公司是知道怎么花钱的那些公司”
- “账上的现金不用是会贬值的”
- “长期而言，送股除了能增加一点交易费用外是没有任何意义的”
❓ 精选问答
问：回购和分红哪个更好？
答：其实是否回购或分红都不是回报率的关键，但真正能赚到钱的好公司最后都一定会通过某个或某几个途径将利润给到股东的，除非公司能像老巴那样用其多余的钱持续得到高于社会平均回报的投资。（2015-11-16）
问：所有的股票都只有一个真正的买家，这句话怎么理解？
答：其实所有的股票都只有一个真正的买家会最终影响到股价，其他人对股价的影响都是浮云。这个真正的买家就是公司自己，买股票的钱来自于盈利。（2013-03-02）
问：好公司是知道怎么花钱的那些公司，这句话怎么理解？
答：好公司是知道怎么花钱的那些公司。这点上网易不算好公司，账上躺太多现金。账上的现金不用是会贬值的！茅台在这点上做得也不太好，虽然他们比下还有很多”余”。（2014-06-06）
问：苹果和茅台在资本配置上有什么区别？
答：茅台的生意模式不错，但对赚到的钱的处理方式不尽如人意，苹果在这方面则是完美的。从这两年两个公司出现回购机会时两家公司完全不同的表现就可以看出这点。茅台甚至有些滑稽的地方是分红居然还因为股价掉了而下降了。苹果对分红和回购的策略的阐述是非常清晰的，作为股东基本可预期，而茅台则会受到非股东因素影响。（2015-04-09）
问：送股有意义吗？
答：长期而言，送股除了能增加一点交易费用外是没有任何意义的！（2014-03-25）
问：苹果的估值逻辑是什么？
答：我对苹果的”估值”就是个例子，只有两个方面，简单起来就几句话（大概）：
- 3000多亿市值，1000多亿净现金，一年净利润400亿，未来会到500亿或更多；
- 苹果会将利润以合适的方式还给股东。 第二条在A股比较难解，这也是当时博友问我会选苹果还是茅台时，我毫不犹豫选苹果的原因。（2014-11-15）
问：人民币投资里最好的标的是什么？
答：博客里说过了，人民币投资里我能理解的最好标的就是茅台了。（2014-11-15）
🔗 相关笔记
相关概念 未来现金流折现 · 生意模式 · 护城河 相关人物 段永平 · 巴菲特 相关公司 苹果 · 茅台 · 网易 相关主题 如何给公司估值 · 段永平的经典投资案例