Yahoo
Buying Yahoo was to get Taobao — American investors hadn’t started looking at Taobao yet; that’s where the cheap opportunity lies
🏢 Company Profile
Yahoo is one of Duan Yongping’s important US stock investments and also the case where he most thoroughly explained his 未来现金流折现 valuation method. The core logic for buying Yahoo wasn’t bullish on Yahoo itself, but indirectly holding 40% of Alibaba Group (including Taobao, Alipay) through Yahoo — these assets were essentially “free” at the time.
📅 Investment Timeline
| Time | Event | Duan Yongping’s Judgment |
|---|---|---|
| February 2010 | Bought Yahoo, market cap ~$21.5B | ”The reason Yahoo is cheap is very simple” — effectively only paying ~$7B |
| March 2010 | Added more positions | ”Worth 15 at the time |
| April 2010 | Detailed breakdown of valuation logic | Per share: net cash 6.7 + Yahoo itself 19.3; Taobao portion is “free” |
| During holding | Sold NetEase to swap into Yahoo | ”My reason for selling was needing to swap into GE and Yahoo” |
| Later | Sold Yahoo to swap into Apple | ”Later everything got switched to Apple again” |
💡 Why Duan Yongping Bought Yahoo
Core Logic: Buying Yahoo Was to Get Taobao and Alibaba Group
“I think I made it clear from the beginning: I bought Yahoo to get Taobao and Alibaba Group. So as long as Yahoo is okay, that’s fine.” (Source: Investment Logic Volume, 2010-06-01)
Valuation Breakdown (2010, when per-share price was ~$15):
| Asset | Per-share value (USD) |
|---|---|
| Net cash | 3 |
| Yahoo Japan (30%) + Alibaba HK listing (30%) | 6.7 |
| Yahoo itself (at 12x PE, EPS $0.8) | 9.6 |
| Subtotal (excluding Taobao) | 19.3 |
| Alibaba Group 40% (including Taobao, Alipay; Duan valued at $50B) | Free |
“No matter what everyone thinks about Taobao’s prospects, my understanding of most American investors is they haven’t even started looking at Taobao yet. Maybe that’s exactly why Yahoo can be cheap.” (Source: Investment Logic Volume, 2010-04-03)
💡 Core Value of This Case
1. Identifying Hidden Assets
Yahoo is one case Duan Yongping explicitly mentioned as a “listed company with hidden assets not reflected on the balance sheet.” The value of Alibaba Group (unlisted portion) was completely absent from Yahoo’s financial reports, yet this was precisely where the greatest value lay.
2. Complete Demonstration of 毛估估
In this case, Duan Yongping demonstrated his valuation method: not pursuing precision but only judging “this price is obviously cheap.” “I roughly estimate US Yahoo is worth about 15.” (Source: Investment Logic Volume, 2010-03-01)
3. Teaching Case for Discounted Cash Flow
Using Yahoo as a prototype, Duan Yongping created a fictional company called “US Tiger Tooth” to demonstrate in detail the 未来现金流折现 calculation method — the most complete valuation teaching example in the entire knowledge base.
4. Opportunity-Cost-Driven Swap Logic
Duan Yongping first sold NetEase for Yahoo, then sold Yahoo for Apple — each swap was based on 机会成本 judgment — hold whichever is cheaper, not because of being bearish on any particular company.
❓ Selected Q&A
Q: Have you invested in listed companies with hidden assets not reflected on their balance sheets?
A: Yes. Yahoo is one. U-Haul back then too.
Source: Duan Yongping Investment Q&A Record (Investment Logic Volume), 2010-03-27
Q: Does Yahoo have any advantages?
A: I think I made it clear from the beginning: I bought Yahoo to get Taobao and Alibaba Group. So as long as Yahoo is okay, that’s fine. Alibaba’s corporate culture is the best-written corporate culture I’ve encountered among Chinese enterprises to date. Possessing such excellent corporate culture combined with already finding such an excellent business model, it would be hard for Alibaba not to succeed! This is also the most important reason I’m willing to buy Yahoo!
Source: Duan Yongping Investment Q&A Record (Investment Logic Volume), 2010-04-04 / 2010-06-01
Q: If you had 20 billion, what would you do?
A: Hehe, if I had 20 billion right now I’d just buy out Yahoo.
Source: Duan Yongping Investment Q&A Record (Investment Logic Volume), 2010-03-26
💬 Excerpts from Original Text
“The reason I think Yahoo is cheap is simple: …by market cap, actually buying Yahoo only costs around 7 billion now… Oh right, forgot to mention Taobao and Alipay. I can’t say exactly how much Taobao and Alipay are worth, but it doesn’t seem that important because whatever they’re worth it’s all free. Though not entirely unimportant either, since this is my biggest reason for buying Yahoo.” (Source: Duan Yongping Investment Q&A Record (Investment Logic Volume), 2010-02-08)
“No matter what everyone thinks about Taobao’s prospects, my understanding of most American investors is they haven’t even started looking at Taobao yet. Maybe that’s exactly why Yahoo can be cheap. Wait a few years and maybe people will gradually start noticing that piece.” (Source: Duan Yongping Investment Q&A Record (Investment Logic Volume), 2010-04-03)
“Without Alibaba Group, Yahoo wouldn’t be cheap anymore.” (Source: Duan Yongping Investment Q&A Record (Investment Logic Volume), 2010-03-03)
📚 Investment Insights
- Hidden assets are the biggest opportunities: Market pricing often only looks at financial reports; invisible assets (unlisted equity stakes) are often where greatest value lies.
- 毛估估 doesn’t need precision: No need to calculate exactly how much Taobao is worth; just judging “whatever it’s worth it’s all free” is sufficient.
- Essence of swapping is 机会成本: Sold NetEase for Yahoo, sold Yahoo for Apple — each step asking “which is cheaper?” not “which will go up?”
🔗 Related Notes
雅虎
买雅虎是为了买淘宝，美国投资者还没开始看淘宝，这才是便宜的机会
🏢 公司简介
雅虎（Yahoo）是段永平在美股的重要投资案例之一，也是他最详细阐述未来现金流折现估值方法的案例。段永平买雅虎的核心逻辑不是看好雅虎本身，而是通过雅虎间接持有阿里巴巴集团（含淘宝、支付宝）40%的股份——这部分资产在当时几乎是”白送的”。
📅 投资时间线
| 时间 | 事件 | 段永平的判断 |
|---|---|---|
| 2010年2月 | 买入雅虎，市值约215亿美元 | ”Yahoo便宜的理由非常简单”，实际只花70亿就能买到 |
| 2010年3月 | 继续加仓 | ”怎么看都值30块钱”，当时股价约15块 |
| 2010年4月 | 详细拆解估值逻辑 | 每股净现金3美元 + 上市资产6.7美元 + 雅虎本身9.6美元 = 19.3美元，淘宝部分是”白送的” |
| 持有期间 | 卖出网易换入雅虎 | ”我卖的理由是需要换GE和Yahoo” |
| 后期 | 卖出雅虎换入苹果 | ”后来又都换了苹果” |
💡 段永平为什么买雅虎
核心逻辑：买雅虎是为了买淘宝和阿里巴巴集团
“我想我从一开始就说的很清楚，我买yahoo是为了买淘宝和阿里巴巴集团。所以yahoo只要过得去就可以了。“（来源：投资逻辑篇，2010-06-01）
估值拆解（2010年，每股约15美元时）：
| 资产 | 每股价值（美元） |
|---|---|
| 净现金 | 3 |
| Yahoo日本（30%）+ 阿里巴巴香港上市部分（30%） | 6.7 |
| 雅虎本身（按12倍PE，每股盈利0.8美元） | 9.6 |
| 小计（不含淘宝） | 19.3 |
| 阿里巴巴集团40%（含淘宝、支付宝，段永平估500亿） | 白送 |
“不管大家对淘宝的前景怎么看，我对美国大部分投资者的理解是他们根本还没开始看淘宝呢。也许这才是yahoo可以便宜的机会吧。“（来源：投资逻辑篇，2010-04-03）
💡 这个案例的核心价值
1. 隐性资产的识别
雅虎是段永平明确提到的”有隐性资产没有在账面体现的上市公司”案例之一。阿里巴巴集团（未上市部分）的价值完全没有反映在雅虎的财报里，但这恰恰是最大的价值所在。
2. 毛估估的完整示范
段永平在这个案例里展示了他的估值方法：不追求精确，只判断”这个价格明显便宜”。“我毛估估地认为美国Yahoo大概值15左右，其他投资价值也值15左右。“（来源：投资逻辑篇，2010-03-01）
3. 现金流折现的教学案例
段永平以雅虎为原型，创造了”美国虎牙”这个虚构公司，详细演示了未来现金流折现的计算方法，是整个知识库里最完整的估值教学案例。
4. 机会成本驱动的换仓逻辑
段永平先卖网易换雅虎，后卖雅虎换苹果，每一次换仓都是基于机会成本判断——哪个更便宜就持有哪个，而不是因为看空某个公司。
❓ 精选问答
问：您有投资过有隐性资产没有在账面体现的上市公司吗？
答：有。yahoo就是。当年Uhal也是。
来源：段永平投资问答录(投资逻辑篇)，2010-03-27
问：雅虎有什么优势么？
答：我想我从一开始就说的很清楚，我买yahoo是为了买淘宝和阿里巴巴集团。所以yahoo只要过得去就可以了。阿里巴巴的企业文化是我在中国企业里迄今见到的写的最好的企业文化。拥有这么好的企业文化再加上已经找到的这么好的生意模式，阿里巴巴想不成功都不容易啊。这也是我愿意买Yahoo的最重要的原因！
来源：段永平投资问答录(投资逻辑篇)，2010-04-04 / 2010-06-01
问：如果有200亿，你会怎么做？
答：呵呵，现在我有200亿我就把Yahoo买下来。
来源：段永平投资问答录(投资逻辑篇)，2010-03-26
💬 原文摘录
“我觉得Yahoo便宜的理由非常简单：……按市值算，现在买yahoo实际上只要花70亿左右。……对了，忘了说淘宝和支付宝。我说不清淘宝和支付宝值多少钱，但好像没那么重要，因为无论值多少都是白给的。不过也不是那么不重要，因为这是我买yahoo的最大理由。“（来源：段永平投资问答录(投资逻辑篇），2010-02-08）
“不管大家对淘宝的前景怎么看，我对美国大部分投资者的理解是他们根本还没开始看淘宝呢。也许这才是yahoo可以便宜的机会吧。等个几年之后，也许大家就慢慢注意到那一块了。“（来源：段永平投资问答录(投资逻辑篇)，2010-04-03）
“没有阿里巴巴集团的话，yahoo就不便宜了。“（来源：段永平投资问答录(投资逻辑篇)，2010-03-03）
📚 投资启示
- 隐性资产是最大的机会：市场定价往往只看财报，看不见的资产（未上市公司股权）往往是最大的价值所在。
- 毛估估不需要精确：不需要算清楚淘宝到底值多少，只需要判断”无论值多少都是白给的”，这就够了。
- 换仓的本质是机会成本：卖网易换雅虎，卖雅虎换苹果，每一步都是在问”哪个更便宜”，而不是”哪个会涨”。