How to Research a Company
“There’s no formula for understanding a company, nor any panacea” — Duan Yongping (2010-04-20)
💡 Core Insights
- The core of researching companies is understanding 企业文化 (corporate culture) and 生意模式 (business model); financial statements are auxiliary tools
- The most important thing about reading financial statements is excluding companies you don’t want to invest in, not finding companies to invest in
- The reasons for deciding to invest often lie outside the financial statements
- “Listen to their words and observe their actions” — look at what the company has said and done in the past
📋 Duan Yongping’s Research Framework
Step One: Corporate Culture Filter
I generally start by understanding corporate culture. If I feel I don’t trust the company, I won’t even look at its financial statements. (2010-06-04)
Filtering Criteria:
- Does the company operate based on right/wrong or profit/loss?
- How is management’s integrity?
- Are there 利润之上的追求 (pursuits beyond profit)?
Step Two: Business Model Assessment
My filter contains two items: business model and corporate culture. If they can’t pass, I probably won’t see value. (2019-05-19)
Assessment Criteria:
- Is there an 护城河 (moat)?
- Can it generate net cash flows consistently over the long term?
- Can competitors easily replicate it?
Step Three: Financial Statement Verification
I rarely read financial statements — strictly speaking, basically never. But I frequently have others help me read them, then I ask about data points I care about. (2011-01-27)
Key Numbers to Focus On:
- Debt
- Net cash
- Cash flow
- Reasonableness of expenses
- Real profits
- Net assets excluding goodwill
❓ Selected Q&A
Q: What’s most important when looking at financial statements?
A: I think what’s most important is eliminating companies you don’t want to invest in — same approach as yours. (2011-01-27)
Q: How important are financial statements in investing?
A: I rarely read financial statements — strictly speaking, basically never. But I frequently have others help me read them, then I ask about data points I care about. Personally, I think being able to read financial statements is very important, though rarely does simply reading them lead to investment decisions; however, reading statements is indeed the first step toward understanding an enterprise. If you feel you can’t understand a company through its financial statements, it’s best not to touch it. (2011-01-27)
Q: How should we understand “don’t be misled by my saying I don’t read financial statements”?
A: Don’t be misled by my saying I don’t read financial statements — you still must read them, otherwise there’s no way to do even rough “毛估估” estimation. (2010-12-10)
Q: How do you understand a company’s corporate culture?
A: Basically it’s listening to their words and observing their actions — seeing what this company has said and how they’ve acted in the past. For example, when I first became interested in Apple, I watched almost all of Apple’s product launches and everything I could find that Tim Cook and Jobs had said, plus I used many Apple products myself. (2020-10-19)
Q: Is field research useful?
A: If you’re interested but still feel uneasy about something, further investigation may be needed. Whatever you don’t understand, find ways to understand it. Field visits are just one approach. There’s no formula for understanding companies, nor any panacea. (2010-04-20)
Q: Can visiting enterprises reveal whether they’re good?
A: I can’t do this either — at least I can’t identify good companies just by visiting them, though sometimes I can tell some companies aren’t good. There are many enterprises where after visiting, you won’t want to invest. (2010-10-05)
Q: Is face-to-face contact with listed company CEOs necessary?
A: To understand a listed company’s CEO, face-to-face contact isn’t needed at all. The internet is so developed nowadays that listening to their words and observing their actions is extremely convenient. (2011-08-25)
Q: How do you read annual reports?
A: Look at whatever concerns or worries you. (2011-04-06)
Q: Is it necessary to go through reports word by word for companies you already understand?
A: Is it necessary to go through reports word by word for companies you understand? Just check key points, right? For companies you don’t understand, why would you have their stock? (2011-04-05)
💡 Core Principles for Researching Companies
- First look at culture, then business, finally price
- Financial statements are for exclusion, not selection
- Listen to words, observe actions — past behavior is the best predictor
- Use products — personally using company products is the most direct way to understand
- Find professionals to help read financial statements — you don’t need to be proficient in finance yourself
📊 Mao Gu Gu (Rough Estimation): Understanding Doesn’t Require Complex Formulas
If you need to press your calculator for half a day before figuring out a company is relatively cheap, then it’s not cheap enough. (Investment Logic Chapter)
段永平 believes genuine valuation should be done through “毛估估” (rough estimation) — qualitative judgment based on deep commercial insight, not precise mathematical calculation.
NetEase Case Study: When NetEase’s stock price fell to 0.60 or more. In other words, the business was essentially free. This kind of bargain doesn’t need complex DCF models — anyone who can do addition and subtraction can understand it. (Investment Logic Chapter)
Moutai Case Study: When Moutai suffered from the plasticizer crisis and its stock price was cut in half, Duan Yongping saw: Moutai had extremely high gross margins, extremely low production costs, didn’t need continuous massive R&D investment, didn’t need to worry about inventory depreciation (baijiu gets better with age), and possessed irreplaceable brand mindshare. The superiority of such business model is common sense — it doesn’t require calculus to prove. (Investment Logic Chapter)
🔗 Related Notes
Related Concepts 企业文化 · 生意模式 · 能力圈 · 毛估估 Related People 段永平 · 巴菲特 Related Topics 如何判断一家好公司 · 如何给公司估值
如何研究一家公司
“了解公司没有公式，也没有万灵药方” — 段永平（2010-04-20）
💡 核心观点
📋 段永平的研究框架
第一步：企业文化过滤
我一般会先了解企业文化，如果觉得不信任这家公司，就连报表都不会看的。（2010-06-04）
过滤标准：
- 企业行事是以利益还是以是非为标准？
- 管理层的诚信如何？
- 有没有利润之上的追求？
第二步：生意模式判断
我的过滤器里有商业模式和企业文化两项，过不去的我就大概看不到价值了。（2019-05-19）
判断标准：
- 有没有护城河？
- 能不能长期产生净现金流？
- 竞争对手能不能轻易复制？
第三步：财报验证
本人很少看财报，严格讲基本就没看过。但我经常会让别人帮我看，然后我会问一些我关心的数据。（2011-01-27）
关注的数字：
- 负债
- 净现金
- 现金流
- 开销合理性
- 真实利润
- 扣除商誉的净资产
❓ 精选问答
问：看财报最重要的是什么？
答：我觉得看财报最重要的就是剔除不想投的公司，和你的思路是一样的。（2011-01-27）
问：财报在投资中有多重要？
答：本人很少看财报，严格讲基本就没看过。但我经常会让别人帮我看，然后我会问一些我关心的数据。我个人认为能看财报还是很重要的，虽然一般很少有看了财报就能决定投资的机会，但看财报毕竟是开始了解企业的第一步。如果你觉得自己没办法看懂财报的公司，最好还是不要碰的好。（2011-01-27）
问：千万别被我说的不看财报误导了，这句话怎么理解？
答：千万别被我说的不看财报误导了，财报还是一定要看的，不然就无从毛”姑姑”了。（2010-12-10）
问：如何了解一家公司的企业文化？
答：基本上就是听其言观其行。看这家公司过去都说过啥都怎么做的。比如，当年我对苹果开始有兴趣后，几乎看了苹果所有的发布会以及能找到的Tim Cook和乔布斯讲过的东西，也用了很多苹果的产品。（2020-10-19）
问：实地调研有用吗？
答：如果对有兴趣但又觉得还有不踏实的地方，有可能要进一步了解。什么不明白就想办法了解什么。实地了解只是办法之一。了解公司没有公式，也没有万灵药方。（2010-04-20）
问：参观企业能看出好企业来吗？
答：这个我也不会，至少没办法通过参观企业看出好企业来，但有时可以看出来有些企业不太好。有很多企业你参观完了就不想投了。（2010-10-05）
问：需要面对面接触上市公司老板吗？
答：想了解上市公司老板根本不需要面对面接触，现在internet这么发达，想听其言观其行实在是方便的很啊。（2011-08-25）
问：怎么看年报？
答：关心什么看什么或者担心什么看什么。（2011-04-06）
问：对了解的公司有必要逐字逐句地去看报表吗？
答：对你了解的公司有必要逐字逐句地去看报表吗？看看关键点就行了吧？如果你不了解的公司，怎么又会有他们的股票呢。（2011-04-05）
💡 研究公司的核心原则
- 先看文化，再看生意，最后看价格
- 财报用于排除，不用于选择
- 听其言观其行——过去的行为是最好的预测指标
- 用产品——亲自使用公司的产品，是最直接的了解方式
- 找专业人士帮忙看财报——不需要自己精通财务
📊 毛估估：看懂不需要复杂公式
如果你需要用计算器按半天才能算出来一家公司比较便宜，那它就还不够便宜。（投资逻辑篇）
段永平认为，真正的估值应该是”毛估估”的——基于深刻商业洞察的定性判断，而不是精确的数学计算。
网易案例：当年网易股价跌到0.8美元时，段永平算了一笔最简单的账：公司账上的现金减去负债，分摊到每股还有0.6美元甚至更多。也就是说，公司的业务几乎是白送的。这种便宜不需要复杂的DCF模型，只要会加减法就能看懂。（投资逻辑篇）
茅台案例：茅台遭受塑化剂危机、股价腰斩时，段永平看到的是：茅台毛利率极高，生产成本极低，不需要持续投入巨额研发，也不需要担心库存贬值（白酒越陈越香），且拥有无可替代的品牌心智。这种生意模式的优越性，是商业常识，不需要微积分来证明。（投资逻辑篇）
🔗 相关笔记
相关概念 企业文化 · 生意模式 · 能力圈 · 毛估估 相关人物 段永平 · 巴菲特 相关主题 如何判断一家好公司 · 如何给公司估值