Selected Q&A: Risk Control and What Not to Do
💡 Key Quotes
- “Never forget Old Ba’s teaching: no shorting, no borrowing, don’t do what you don’t understand!”
- “Walk often by the river and you’ll eventually wet your shoes — once is enough for a lifetime”
- “Easy liquidity and convenient entry/exit are the #1 reason most investors lose money”
- “Personally, I’m generally reluctant to heavily invest in companies with debt”
- “No matter how confident you are, absolutely never use margin”
❓ Selected Q&A
Q: What is Old Ba’s teaching?
A: Never forget Old Ba’s teaching: no shorting, no borrowing, don’t do what you don’t understand! (2010-05-10)
Q: How should we understand “don’t engage in short-term speculation”?
A: Don’t engage in short-term speculation. Some say about something, “I don’t expect to make money, just treating it as consumption for fun,” but doing this repeatedly loses focus. Walk often by the river and you’ll eventually wet your shoes — once is enough to get them wet for a lifetime. (2018-09-30)
Q: How should we understand “Easy liquidity and convenient entry/exit are the #1 reason most investors lose money”?
A: Easy liquidity and convenient entry/exit are the #1 reason most investors lose money. (2011-12-13)
Q: Why not use margin (leverage)?
A: Personally, I’m generally reluctant to heavily invest in companies with debt. Also, no matter how confident you are, absolutely never use margin. (2013-02-19)
Q: What are the risks of loans and using margin?
A: With loans and margin, gains come fast but losses come faster. Walk often by the river — how can you not eventually wet your shoes? Once is enough for a lifetime. Why take that risk? Most of our past competitors have disappeared; we’re still here. The reason may lie right here. (2018-09-30)
Q: What’s the difference between borrowing for business operations and using margin to buy stocks?
A: Borrowing for business operations and using margin to buy stocks have essentially no difference — both commonly end in collapse. (2020-10-20)
Q: If you invest in a company with a very high debt ratio, does this count as using margin from an investor’s perspective?
A: It seems not directly using margin, so it won’t make you need to get rich twice. However, I don’t like buying companies with high debt ratios unless I especially understand them well. (2016-11-12)
Q: Is GE an exception regarding debt?
A: I also try to avoid it as much as possible. GE is an exception for me, but GE’s debt is somewhat like bank debt. (2010-04-04)
Q: What’s most important for being healthier and lasting longer?
A: To be healthier and last longer, beyond knowing what we should do, it’s more important to know what we should NOT do. We have quite a long Stop Doing List. Munger said if you know where you’ll die, resolutely stay away from there. Most companies ultimately die from broken capital chains. Our company basically has no loans, even though banks gave us credit lines long ago. The same goes for investing — no margin! (2016-11-10)
Q: What does it mean to have only truly made 5 moves in 10 years?
A: In these 4 years, Dadao (Duan Yongping) only made one real move — Apple. The previous move was GE. Perhaps this is why very few people can do it? If Dadao only dares to make a move on average every two years, on what basis can “retail investors” make more moves? (2012-07-17)
Q: How should we understand “Beyond a certain quantity, the more companies you invest in, the less you earn”?
A: In these 10 years, among companies I was interested in, I truly understood fewer than 10 companies (excluding those eliminated and wrong investments). I invested heavily in 5 companies — roughly one every two years. Not as hard as imagined, right? What, you’ve invested in many more companies than me? Then be careful — generally speaking, beyond a certain quantity, the more companies you invest in, the less you earn. (2012-06-24)
Q: What lesson came from getting short-squeezed when speculating on Baidu?
A: I never made mistakes in investing, but I did in speculating. When speculating on Baidu, I got short-squeezed and lost 100–200 million USD. I learned from Old Ba: if I can’t figure it out, I won’t touch it. I’ll definitely miss many good opportunities, but I guarantee everything I catch will be correct. (2018-09-30)
🔗 Related Notes
Related Concepts Stop Doing List · 本分 · 能力圈 · 集中投资的逻辑 Related People 段永平 · 巴菲特 · 芒格 Related Topics Duan Yongping’s Value Investing System · 段永平的错误与反思
风险控制与不做什么篇精选
💡 核心金句
- “老巴的教导千万别忘了：不做空，不借钱，不做不懂的东西！”
- “常在河边走，难免会湿鞋，湿一回鞋子就会湿一辈子”
- “变现容易，进出方便，是绝大多数人投资亏损的首因”
- “我个人一般对有负债的公司不太愿意重仓”
- “无论多有把握也绝对不要用margin”
❓ 精选问答
问：老巴的教导是什么？
答：老巴的教导千万别忘了：不做空，不借钱，不做不懂的东西！（2010-05-10）
问：不做短期的投机，这句话怎么理解？
答：不做短期的投机。有人说这件事我不指望赚钱，就当消费玩玩，一次一次这样就不聚焦了。常在河边走，难免会湿鞋，湿一回鞋子就会湿一辈子。（2018-09-30）
问：变现容易，进出方便，是绝大多数人投资亏损的首因，这句话怎么理解？
答：变现容易，进出方便，是绝大多数人投资亏损的首因。（2011-12-13）
问：为什么不用margin（杠杆）？
答：我个人一般对有负债的公司不太愿意重仓，另外就是无论多有把握也绝对不要用margin。（2013-02-19）
问：贷款和用margin的风险是什么？
答：贷款和用margin，赚的时候快，赔的时候更快。常在河边走，哪能不湿鞋，湿一回鞋就湿一辈子，为什么要冒这个险呢？我们过去的大部分竞争对手都消失了，我们还健在，道理也许就在此。（2018-09-30）
问：经营中借钱和买股票用margin有什么区别？
答：经营中借钱和买股票用margin没啥本质区别，常用最后大概率都会倒在上面的。（2020-10-20）
问：如果投了一个负债率很高的企业，对于投资者而言，这属于使用Margin吗？
答：似乎不属于直接用margin，不会导致你需要富两次。但是，我是不太喜欢买负债率高的企业的，除非我能特别懂。（2016-11-12）
问：GE是负债的例外吗？
答：我也尽量避开。GE对我来讲是个例外，但GE的负债有点像银行的负债。（2010-04-04）
问：要做到更健康更长久，最重要的是什么？
答：要做到更健康更长久，除了应该知道我们该做什么外，更重要的是需要知道什么不该做。我们是有个不短的Stop Doing List的。芒格说如果知道自己会死在哪里就坚决不去那里。多数企业最后都是死在资金链断裂上。我们公司是基本没有贷款的，虽然很久以前银行就给了我们不少额度。投资也一样，不用margin！（2016-11-10）
问：在10年里只真正出手了5次，这是什么意思？
答：大道这4年里只真正出手了一次，就是苹果，上一次出手是GE，大概这是其会成为极少数人的原因？如果大道只敢平均两年出手一次，凭什么”散户”可以出手更多？（2012-07-17）
问：超出一定量以后，投的企业越多赚的越少，这句话怎么理解？
答：在这10年里在有兴趣的企业里我大致看懂了不到10家企业（被排除的不算，投错的不算）重手投了5家，差不多两年一家，没想象的那么难吧？什么，你投的企业比我多多了？那你要小心了，一般而言，超出一定量以后，投的企业越多赚的越少。（2012-06-24）
问：投机百度被short squeeze，这是什么教训？
答：投资没犯过错误，投机犯过。投机百度的时候被short squeeze（夹空）了，亏了1亿~2亿美金。我学老巴：想不通的我不碰，肯定会错失很多好机会，但是保证抓住的都是对的。（2018-09-30）
🔗 相关笔记
相关概念 Stop Doing List · 本分 · 能力圈 · 集中投资的逻辑 相关人物 段永平 · 巴菲特 · 芒格 相关主题 段永平的价值投资体系 · 段永平的错误与反思