Complete Stanford 53 Questions Transcript (2018-09-30)
September 30, 2018 — Duan Yongping exchanged and shared with Chinese students at Stanford campus. This is the complete transcript of all 53 questions — the most important primary source for understanding Duan Yongping’s philosophical system.
💡 Key Quotes
- “All our success comes from doing the right thing + equanimity”
- “Talking about value-for-money is just making excuses for yourself”
- “Shortcut is the fastest way to get lost”
- “Working at Apple for 30 years yields better results than jumping to most startups”
- “Tesla is a company worth zero; it’s doomed sooner or later”
📋 Complete Q&A Transcript
1. What is most important to you?
The answer varies by age. Right now it’s family, kinship, and friendship. Do I still need to explain why?
2. Without a sales department, what is your pricing decision mechanism?
Conduct market research and set prices as accurately as possible at launch; adjust promptly if wrong. The essence of competition in (electronics) products lies in product differentiation — provide what others can’t. Without differentiation, you become a commodity and can only compete on price, making it hard to earn money.
3. Have you ever tried to change your personality or way of thinking?
I don’t think so. Personality is hard to change. CEIBS has a statistic: among Fortune 500 CEOs, there are all kinds of personalities, but they share only one common trait — integrity.
4. How should Chinese private enterprises respond to trade war challenges?
It mainly depends on the enterprise itself. If you do well, it doesn’t matter whether there’s a trade war or not. Many poorly-run enterprises use the trade war as a fig leaf. For good enterprises, when crisis comes, it’s actually an opportunity. We don’t have loans and have ample cash flow, so every time crisis comes, it’s an opportunity.
5. What’s your logic for investing in early-stage companies?
I don’t invest in early-stage companies; I only invest in public ones. I invested in Huang Zheng for personal reasons — he’s my friend, I understand him and trust him. Huang Zheng is one of the few highly perceptive people I know; he focuses on the essence of things.
6. Talk about marketing methodology?
There’s a misconception (externally) that we attach great importance to marketing. Actually for us, marketing doesn’t matter at all — what matters most is still the product. No company fails because of marketing failure. When companies fail, it’s essentially because of product failure. Marketing means using the simplest language to communicate what you want to convey (to your users). Advertising can influence at most 20% of people; the remaining 80% are influenced by that 20%.
9. Phone companies have two models: Xiaomi gathers users first while Apple makes money from products. Which is better?
First, in terms of gathering customers, Apple is more formidable than Xiaomi. Second, in the long run, no enterprise makes money by being cheap. Value-for-money talk is just making excuses for yourself. You must focus on users — do well what you’re capable of, satisfying the needs of a certain group of people.
11. With so many phone companies, why is Apple the most successful?
Apple is rare in its ability to focus on what it does. Apple has aspirations beyond profit — making the best products. Apple’s culture is very strong with a strict “Stop Doing List” — must satisfy users, must make the best products.
13. Why say “dare to be last among all, yet strive to be first among those who come late”?
All masters dare to be last among all; they simply do better than others. “Daring to be last among all” refers to product categories — because guessing market demand is often very hard, but once others have clarified demand, going to satisfy it becomes more certain. (“Daring to be last among all” means “doing the right things”; “striving to be first among those late” means the ability to “do things right.“)
14. Have you made any investment mistakes?
I’ve never made mistakes in investing, but I have in speculating. When speculating on Baidu, I got short-squeezed and lost 100–200 million USD. I learned from Old Ba: if I can’t figure it out, I won’t touch it. I’ll definitely miss many good opportunities, but guarantee everything I catch will be correct. 95% of investors focus on the market — that’s not understanding investing. You must focus on the business.
15. When should you sell Apple, and why?
Good companies don’t need to be sold!
16. After coming to the US, how has your circle of competence improved?
Circle of competence is not like drawing a circle with a golden hoop staff telling yourself to stay inside because there are monsters outside. Circle of competence means: be honest with yourself — know what you know, know what you don’t know. With this attitude, if you can understand something, it’s within your circle of competence; otherwise it’s not.
20. You advocate no loans and no margin. What about missed opportunities?
With loans and margin, gains come fast but losses come faster. Walk often by the river — how can you avoid getting your shoes wet? Once is enough for a lifetime. Why take this risk? Most of our past competitors have disappeared; we’re still here. Perhaps the reason lies right here.
22. Suggestions for career development for workplace newcomers?
Do your job well; don’t jump around. Many in Silicon Valley like job-hopping, but working at Apple for 30 years yields better results than jumping to most startups.
24. Corporate culture?
Corporate culture is Mission, Vision, and Core Values. “Mission” is why you were founded; “Vision” is where we want to go; “Core Values” are what’s right and what’s wrong. Hiring involves qualified people and suitable people. Suitable means cultural match; qualified means capability. People whose values don’t match are firmly rejected.
25. How do you view Chinese enterprises’ love for overtaking on curves?
In Alaska there’s a saying: shortcut is the fastest way to get lost. There’s no such thing as overtaking on curves. Focusing on essence is most important!
26. How do you judge if stock price is cheap or expensive?
This is a question only asked by those focusing short-term and watching the market. I don’t consider this question. I focus on the long term and stay away from what I don’t understand. Any attempt to time the market may be wrong. I don’t watch the market; I watch the business. You say a certain stock is expensive — how do you know? Standing now looking back 10 years, everything seems expensive.
27. How do you understand “Stop Doing List”?
It’s mainly about doing the right things. It’s not a skill or formula but a way of thinking: if you discover something wrong, stop immediately because cost is lowest at that moment. “Stop Doing List” has no shortcuts — you must accumulate, build up, and realize it yourself. Stop doing means discovering something wrong and stopping — over time the effect becomes obvious.
28. How to raise children better in Silicon Valley?
Most importantly, give children security. How? By giving quality time — high-quality companionship, being friends with them. Give unconditional love. Chinese people tend to give conditional love — “You got first place, Daddy loves you so much!” These two sentences absolutely cannot be said together.
29. What do you think of Old Ba (Buffett)?
Old Ba is a very good person. He treats people well and sincerely from his heart. He is very wise — any complex question, he gets to the essence in one or two sentences. He is so wise, so successful, and treats people so well. I’ve basically never seen such a person among Chinese entrepreneurs, and very few among American entrepreneurs too.
30. Why did you sell Netease (网易)?
Because Ding Lei is like a big kid — I didn’t feel comfortable leaving so much money in his hands, though the stock price proved I might have sold wrongly.
31. What do you think of Tesla?
Munger says Musk is a proven genius. His IQ might be 190, but he thinks it’s 250. But to run a company, you must be rational! In my eyes, Tesla is a company worth zero — it’s doomed sooner or later. Its corporate culture is terrible.
37. What’s most important in (value) investing?
Right business, right people, right price. (The right business, the right people, the right price — Old Ba said this.) “Right business” refers to business model; “right people” refers to corporate culture. Price isn’t as important — business and people matter most.
39. What do you think of Bitcoin/blockchain?
I’m not interested in things that don’t generate cash flow. I don’t understand blockchain — if I don’t understand it, I won’t look at it, and without understanding I can’t bet heavily. But me not understanding doesn’t mean you don’t understand — invest in what you can understand.
40. How do you discover and maintain equanimity (平常心)?
Maintaining isn’t hard because it’s already there (something within your heart). Jack Ma also said: “Ordinary people find it hard to have equanimity, so equanimity is actually extraordinary!” Discovery comes through suffering. Because without equanimity, the moment you become irrational, you’ll take a tumble.
41. How do you find work you love doing?
If you always stay where you dislike, you may never know what you truly love. So when you discover you’re doing something wrong, stop. Keep trying, keep searching. When you do what you love, there’s no concept of overtime because you’ll find every way to work.
42. I feel failure is inevitable and success is accidental. Is that right?
Success definitely has its reasons.
45. How do you discover what’s right/wrong?
You need time to think. You may think for a long time, then suddenly one day have an epiphany and realize what’s wrong/right. Many people are busy all day long with no time to think — they may never understand.
49. Men fear entering the wrong profession. Among fields that will boom, what you’re good at, and what you love — which to choose?
If you know: booming + good at + love it, then definitely choose that field. The problem is it’s very hard to know, so prioritize what you love. Having too much money isn’t good because earning money itself is great fun — with too much money, you lose an important source of joy. Money roughly enough is fine; doing what you love is more important.
51. What’s the next breakthrough in human-computer interaction?
I don’t know. But machines will definitely get stronger. Humans have already lost at Go. In speculation, you also can’t beat machines. But in investing, machines can never beat humans because machines can’t understand companies.
53. What advantage of Huang Zheng’s made you invest in him?
I’ve been friends with Huang Zheng for over 10 years. I understand him and trust him!
🔗 Related Notes
Related Concepts Stop Doing List · 本分 · 平常心 · 企业文化 · 能力圈 Related People 段永平 · 巴菲特 · 黄峥 Related Companies 苹果 · OPPO · 拼多多 Related Topics Duan Yongping’s Value Investing System · 本分
斯坦福53问完整实录（2018-09-30）
2018年9月30日，段永平在斯坦福校园与华人学生进行了交流和分享。这是完整的53问实录，是理解段永平思想体系最重要的一手资料。
💡 核心金句
- “我们所有的成功，都来自于本分+平常心”
- “性价比，都是给自己找借口”
- “shortcut is the fastest way to get lost（捷径是迷路的最快的办法）”
- “在苹果干30年，比跳去大多数创业公司结果都要好”
- “特斯拉是一家价值为零的公司，迟早要完”
📋 完整问答实录
1. 对你来说什么东西是最重要的？
不同年龄答案是不同的。现在是家人、亲情、友情。这还需要说为什么吗？
2. 没有销售部，那你的价格决策机制是什么？
做市场调研，在上市的时候就尽可能定准价，错了及时调整。（电子产品）竞争的本质在于产品差异化，要做别人提供不了的东西。没有差异化，就成了日用基础商品，只能靠价格来竞争，很难挣钱。
3. 你有没有试图改变过性格和思维方式？
我觉得没有，性格很难改。中欧有个统计，世界500强的CEO中什么样的性格都有，而他们只有一个共性，就是integrity（诚实）。
4. 中国民营企业应该怎么应对贸易战的挑战？
最主要的是取决于企业本身，做的好，有没有贸易战都无所谓。很多做的不好的企业，会拿贸易战当遮羞布。好的企业，危机来的时候，反而是机会。我们不贷款，有充裕的现金流，所以每一次危机来的时候都是机会。
5. 投资早期企业的逻辑是什么？
我不投早期，只投上市企业。投黄峥是因为个人原因，他是我朋友，我了解他、相信他。黄峥是我知道的少见的很有悟性的人，他关注事物本质。
6. 谈一谈营销方法论？
（外界）有个误解，以为我们很看重营销。其实对于我们来说，营销一点儿都不重要，最重要的还是产品。没有哪家公司的失败，是因为营销失败。公司失败，本质都是因为产品的失败。营销，就是用最简单的语言，把你想传播的信息传播出去（给你的用户）。广告最多只能影响20%的人，剩下80%是靠这20%影响的。
9. 手机企业有两种模式，小米先圈用户，苹果靠产品赚钱，哪种好？
首先，圈客户的角度，苹果比小米厉害；其次，长远来看，没有什么企业是靠便宜赚钱的。性价比，都是给自己找借口。 一定要把重心聚焦在用户上，把自己能做的事情做好了，满足了一部分人群的需求。
11. 这么多手机公司，为什么苹果最成功？
苹果很难得，focus（聚焦）在自己做的事情上。苹果有利润之上的追求，就是做最好的产品。苹果文化的强度很强，有严格的”Stop Doing List”，一定要满足用户，一定做最好的产品。
13. 为什么说”敢为天下后，后中争先”？
所有的高手都是敢为天下后的，只是做的比别人更好。敢为天下后，指的是产品类别，是因为你猜市场的需求往往很难，但是别人已经把需求明确了，你去满足这个需求，就更确定。（敢为天下后指的是”做对的事情”，后中争先指的是”把事情做对”的能力。）
14. 有没有过一些投资错误？
投资没犯过错误，投机犯过。投机百度的时候被short squeeze（夹空）了，亏了1亿~2亿美金。我学老巴：想不通的我不碰，肯定会错失很多好机会，但是保证抓住的都是对的。95%的人投资都是focus在市场上的，这就是不懂投资。一定要focus在生意上。
15. 什么时候卖苹果，为什么？
好公司是不需要卖的！
16. 你来美国后，能力圈有什么提升？
能力圈不是拿金箍棒在地上画个圈，说待在里面不要出去，外面有妖怪。能力圈是：诚实对自己，知之为知之，不知为不知。有这样的态度，然后如果能看懂一个东西，那它就是在我能力圈内，否则就不是。
20. 你主张不贷款，不用margin，错过了机会怎么办？
贷款和用margin，赚的时候快，赔的时候更快。常在河边走，哪能不湿鞋，湿一回鞋就湿一辈子，为什么要冒这个险呢？我们过去的大部分竞争对手都消失了，我们还健在，道理也许就在此。
22. 对职场新人职业发展的建议？
做好本职工作，不要跳来跳去。硅谷很多人喜欢跳槽，但是在苹果干30年，比跳去大多数创业公司结果都要好。
24. 企业文化？
企业文化就是Mission、Vision和Core Values。“Mission”是为什么成立；“Vision”是我们要去哪里；“Core Values”是哪些事情是对的，哪些事情是不对的。招人分合格的人和合适的人。合适是指文化匹配，合格是指能力。价值观不match（匹配）的人，坚决不要。
25. 怎么看待中国企业爱弯道超车？
Alaska有句话，shortcut is the fastest way to get lost（捷径是迷路的最快的办法）。不存在什么弯道超车的事情，关注本质最重要！
26. 怎么判断股价便不便宜？
这是关注短期关注市场的人才会问的问题。我不考虑这个问题。我关注长期，看不懂的不碰。任何想市场，想时机的做法，可能都是错误的，我不看市场，我看生意。你说某只股票贵，how do you know？站在现在看10年前，估计什么都是贵的。
27. 怎么理解”Stop Doing List”？
主要讲的是做对的事情。它不是一个skill（技巧）或者formula（公式），而是思维方式：如果发现错了，就立刻停止，因为这个时候成本是最小的。“Stop Doing List”没有shortcut（捷径），要靠自己去积累，去攒，去体悟。stop doing就是发现错，就要停，时间长了就效果很明显。
28. 在硅谷怎么更好地带娃？
最主要的，要给孩子安全感。怎么给？就是给quality time，就是高质量的陪伴，跟他们交朋友。要无条件的爱。中国人容易有条件的爱，“你得了第一，爸爸很爱你啊”，这两句话绝对不能放一起说。
29. 怎么看待老巴？
老巴是一个很好的人。他是发自内心的对人好对人诚恳。他很睿智，任何复杂的问题，他一两句话就说到本质了。他这么睿智这么成功又对人这么好，中国企业家里我基本没见过这样的，美国企业家里也极少。
30. 为什么卖网易？
因为丁磊就是个大孩子，那么多钱放他手里不放心，虽然股价证明我可能卖错了。
31. 怎么看待特斯拉？
芒格说，马斯克是个被证明了的天才，他的IQ可能是190，但他自己认为他是250。但是run a company，you must be rational（经营一家公司，你必须要理性！）。在我眼里，特斯拉是一家价值为零的公司，迟早要完。他的culture（企业文化）很糟糕。
37. （价值）投资最重要的是什么？
right business，right people，right price。（对的生意，对的人，对的价钱。这是老巴说的。）对的生意说的就是生意模式，对的人指的就是企业文化。price没有那么重要，business和people最重要。
39. 怎么看比特币/区块链？
我对不产生现金流的东西，不感兴趣。区块链我不懂，不懂不看，不懂没法下重注。但是我看不懂，不代表你看不懂，你要投自己能看懂的。
40. 怎么发现并保持平常心？
保持不难，因为它就在那儿（是内心已经有的东西）。马云还说过一句话”平常人是很难有平常心的，所以平常心也是不平常心！“发现嘛，靠吃亏。因为没有平常心，一不rational就会栽跟头。
41. 怎么找到喜欢做的事？
你如果总是待在自己不喜欢的地方，你可能永远都不会知道自己真正喜欢什么。所以发现错的事情，就要停。多去尝试，去寻找。做自己喜欢的事，就没有加班的概念了，因为你会想尽办法工作。
42. 我觉得失败是必然的，成功是偶然的，对吗？
成功肯定是有原因的。
45. 怎么发现对/不对的事情？
要有时间想。可能会想很久，有一天突然灵光一现，想明白是错的/对的。很多人一天到晚忙，根本没时间想，可能永远都不会明白。
49. 男怕入错行。将来会火的、自己擅长的，自己喜欢的，选哪个？
如果你知道：会火的+擅长的+喜欢的，那肯定做那一行。问题是这很难知道，所以优先做自己喜欢的。钱多不是好事，因为挣钱是一个很大的乐趣，钱多你就失去了一个很重要的乐趣。钱差不多就可以了，做自己喜欢的事更重要。
51. 人机交互的下一个突破口？
我不知道。但是机器肯定越来越强，人已经在围棋上输了，做投机你也打不过机器。但是在投资上，机器永远打不过人，因为机器看不懂公司。
53. 黄峥的什么（优势）让你投他？
我和黄峥10多年的朋友了，我了解他，我信任他！
🔗 相关笔记
相关概念 Stop Doing List · 本分 · 平常心 · 企业文化 · 能力圈 相关人物 段永平 · 巴菲特 · 黄峥 相关公司 苹果 · OPPO · 拼多多 相关主题 段永平的价值投资体系 · 本分