Selected Stanford 49 Questions (2018)
September 30, 2018 — Complete transcript of Duan Yongping’s exchange with Chinese students at Stanford campus
💡 Key Quotes
- “All our success comes from doing the right thing + maintaining equanimity”
- “Talking about value-for-money is just making excuses for yourself”
- “Working at Apple for 30 years yields better results than jumping to most startups”
- “Shortcut is the fastest way to get lost”
- “Right business, right people, right price”
❓ Complete Q&A
1. What is most important to you, and why?
Duan Yongping: The answer varies by age. Right now it’s family, kinship, and friendship. Do I still need to explain why?
2. Without a sales department, what is your pricing decision mechanism?
Duan Yongping: Conduct market research and set prices as accurately as possible at launch; adjust promptly if wrong. The essence of competition in (electronics) products lies in product differentiation — you must provide what others can’t. Without differentiation, you become a commodity and can only compete on price, making it hard to make money.
3. Have you ever tried to change your personality or way of thinking?
Duan Yongping: I don’t think so. Personality is hard to change. CEIBS has a statistic: among Fortune 500 CEOs, there are all kinds of personalities, but they share only one common trait — integrity.
4. How should Chinese private enterprises respond to the challenges of the trade war?
Duan Yongping: It mainly depends on the enterprise itself. If you do well, it doesn’t matter whether there’s a trade war or not. Many poorly-run enterprises use the trade war as a fig leaf. For good enterprises, when crisis comes, it’s actually an opportunity. We don’t have loans and have ample cash flow, so every time a crisis comes, it’s an opportunity for us.
5. What is your logic for investing in early-stage companies?
Duan Yongping: I don’t invest in early-stage companies; I only invest in public companies. I invested in Huang Zheng for personal reasons — he’s my friend, I understand him and trust him. Huang Zheng is one of the few highly perceptive people I know; he focuses on the essence of things.
6. Talk about marketing methodology?
Duan Yongping: There’s a misconception (externally) that we attach great importance to marketing. Actually for us, marketing doesn’t matter at all — what matters most is still the product. No company fails because of marketing failure. When companies fail, it’s essentially because of product failure. Marketing means using the simplest language to communicate what you want to convey (to your users). If marketing is poor, you just sell slower, but as long as the product is good, 20 years later the result will be the same regardless of marketing quality.
9. Currently there are two models for phone (companies): one is Xiaomi’s approach of first gathering users, then monetizing through other means; the other is Apple’s approach of making money from the product itself. Which is better?
Duan Yongping: First, in terms of gathering customers, Apple is more formidable than Xiaomi. Second, in the long run, no enterprise makes money by being cheap. Talking about value-for-money is just making excuses for yourself. You must focus on users — not about whether we must go high-end or low-end, but simply doing well what you’re capable of, satisfying the needs of a certain group of people. Even Apple hasn’t satisfied everyone.
11. With so many phone companies, why is Apple the most successful?
Duan Yongping: Apple is rare in its ability to focus on what it does. Apple has aspirations beyond profit — making the best products. Apple’s culture is very strong with a strict “Stop Doing List” — must satisfy users, must make the best products. We don’t compare ourselves to Apple because having some features out of 1000 that are stronger than Apple proves nothing. It’s like saying CBA basketball can’t beat NBA so “we know kung fu” — isn’t that nonsense?
13. Why say “dare to be last among all, yet strive to be first among those who come late”?
Duan Yongping: All masters dare to be last among all; they simply do better than others. Our company’s success is no accident. Persisting with our own “Stop Doing List,” screening partners, screening suppliers — slowly you build up a good circle, which is very valuable in the long run. “Daring to be last among all” refers to product categories — because guessing market demand is often very hard, but once others have clarified the demand, going to satisfy that demand becomes more certain.
14. Have you made any investment mistakes?
Duan Yongping: I’ve never made mistakes in investing, but I have in speculating. (I actually made mistakes in investing too, but they were small and I probably didn’t think of them then.) When speculating on Baidu, I got short-squeezed and lost 100–200 million USD. I learned from Old Ba: if I can’t figure it out, I won’t touch it. I’ll definitely miss many good opportunities, but I guarantee everything I catch will be correct. Investing follows Old Ba’s logic: first look at business model, understand how the company makes money. 95% of investors focus on the market — that’s not understanding investing. You must focus on the business. Companies exist to make money.
15. When should you sell Apple, and why?
Duan Yongping: Good companies don’t need to be sold!
16. After coming to the US, how has your circle of competence improved?
Duan Yongping: Circle of competence is not like drawing a circle on the ground with a golden hoop staff, telling yourself to stay inside because there are monsters outside. Circle of competence means: be honest with yourself — know what you know, know what you don’t know. With this attitude, if you can understand something, it’s within your circle of competence; otherwise, it’s not. Apple’s $1 trillion market cap? I never care about that. I only care about its ability to make money. When buying a company, I don’t plan to sell unless its earning power changes or there’s a better target that I understand well and whose price is very low.
17. How do you view the tension between entrepreneurship’s “persistence brings hope” and “Stop Doing List”?
Duan Yongping: “Stop Doing List” is about doing the right things. If you know something is wrong, change immediately. This applies to entrepreneurship too. (You must persist in right things, and quickly correct wrong ones!) As for how to do things right, that’s a method-level issue solvable through learning. If you don’t know right from wrong, you lack moral standards, and it’s hard to achieve much in life. Moral standards must be cultivated and persisted in by yourself — there are no shortcuts.
19. You advocate not borrowing and not using margin. What if you miss opportunities?
Duan Yongping: Borrowing and margin mean gains come fast but losses come faster. Walk often by the river — how can you avoid getting your shoes wet? Once is enough for a lifetime. Why take that risk? (Some opportunities will always be missed. As long as you guarantee that what you catch is correct, that’s sufficient.) Most of our past competitors have disappeared; we’re still here. Perhaps the reason lies right here.
21. Suggestions for career development for workplace newcomers?
Duan Yongping: Do your job well; don’t jump around. Many people in Silicon Valley like job-hopping, but working at Apple for 30 years yields better results than jumping to most startups.
23. Corporate culture?
Duan Yongping: Corporate culture is Mission, Vision, and Core Values. “Mission” is why you were founded; “Vision” is where we want to go; “Core Values” are what’s right and what’s wrong. Hiring involves qualified people and suitable people. Suitable means cultural match; qualified means capability. People whose values don’t match are firmly rejected. Those who cause trouble for the company are often qualified but unsuitable. A group of suitable ordinary people working together with one heart can accomplish great things.
24. How do you view Chinese enterprises’ love for overtaking on curves?
Duan Yongping: In Alaska there’s a saying: shortcut is the fastest way to get lost. There’s no such thing as overtaking on curves. Focusing on essence is most important! Otherwise even if you overtake, you’ll be overtaken back.
25. How do you judge if stock price is cheap or expensive?
Duan Yongping: This is a question only asked by people who focus on the short term and watch the market. I don’t consider this question. I focus on the long term and stay away from what I don’t understand. Any attempt to time the market may be wrong. I don’t watch the market; I watch the business. You say a certain stock is expensive — how do you know? Standing now and looking back 10 years, everything seems expensive. Stand 10 years from now looking at today — if you understand it and it’s cheap, just buy it.
26. How do you understand “Stop Doing List”?
Duan Yongping: It’s mainly about doing the right things. It’s not a skill or formula but a way of thinking: if you discover something wrong, stop immediately because costs are lowest at that moment. “Stop Doing List” has no shortcuts — you must accumulate, build, and realize it yourself. Stop doing means discovering something wrong and stopping — over time the effect becomes obvious. Many people can’t let go of immediate temptations and are still stuck there 30 years later. When wrong, you must stop and resist short-term temptation.
27. How to raise children better in Silicon Valley?
Duan Yongping: Most importantly, give children a sense of security. How? By giving them quality time — high-quality companionship, being friends with them. High-quality companionship means being together with your phone hidden away. Love unconditionally. Chinese people tend to give conditional love — “You got first place, Daddy loves you so much!” These two sentences absolutely cannot be said together.
28. How do you view Old Ba (Buffett)?
Duan Yongping: Old Ba is a very good person. He treats people well and sincerely from his heart. He is very wise — any complex question, he gets to the essence in just a sentence or two. He is so wise, so successful, and treats people so well. I’ve basically never seen such a person among Chinese entrepreneurs, and very few among American entrepreneurs too.
29. Why did you sell Netease (网易)?
Duan Yongping: Because Ding Lei is like a big kid — I didn’t feel comfortable leaving so much money in his hands, though the stock price proved I might have sold wrongly.
34. What’s most important in (value) investing?
Duan Yongping: Right business, right people, right price. (The right business, the right people, the right price. This is what Old Ba said.) “Right business” refers to business model; “right people” refers to corporate culture. Price isn’t as important — business and people matter most. Culture has a lot to do with the founder.
36. What do you think of Bitcoin/blockchain?
Duan Yongping: I’m not interested in things that don’t generate cash flow. I don’t understand blockchain — if I don’t understand it, I won’t look at it, and without understanding I can’t bet heavily. But me not understanding doesn’t mean you don’t understand — invest in what you can understand.
37. How do you discover and maintain equanimity (平常心)?
Duan Yongping: Maintaining it isn’t hard because it’s already there (it’s something within your heart). However, Jack Ma also said: “Ordinary people find it hard to have equanimity, so equanimity is actually extraordinary!” Discovery comes through suffering. Because without equanimity, the moment you become irrational, you’ll take a tumble.
38. How do find work you love doing?
Duan Yongping: If you always stay where you dislike, you may never know what you truly love. So when you discover you’re doing something wrong, stop. Keep trying, keep searching. When you do what you love, there’s no concept of overtime because you’ll find every way to work.
42. How do you discover what’s right/wrong?
Duan Yongping: You need time to think. You may think for a long time, then suddenly one day have an epiphany and realize what’s wrong/right. Many people are busy all day long with no time to think — they may never understand.
45. Men fear entering the wrong profession. Among fields that will boom, what you’re good at, and what you love — which to choose?
Duan Yongping: If you know: booming + good at + love it, then definitely choose that field. The problem is it’s very hard to know, so prioritize what you love. Having too much money isn’t a good thing because earning money itself is great fun — with lots of money, you lose an important source of joy. Money roughly enough is fine; doing what you love is more important.
47. What’s the next breakthrough in human-computer interaction?
Duan Yongping: I don’t know. But machines will definitely get stronger. Humans have already lost at Go. In speculation, you also can’t beat machines. But in investing, machines can never beat humans because machines can’t understand companies.
49. What advantage of Huang Zheng’s made you invest in him?
Duan Yongping: I’ve been friends with Huang Zheng for over 10 years. I understand him and trust him!
🔗 Related Notes
Related Concepts 本分 · 平常心 · Stop Doing List · 差异化 · 企业文化 · 能力圈 Related People 段永平 · 黄峥 · 巴菲特 Related Companies 苹果 · OPPO · 拼多多
斯坦福49问精选（2018年）
2018年9月30日，段永平在斯坦福校园与华人学生的完整交流实录
💡 核心金句
- “我们所有的成功，都来自于本分+平常心”
- “性价比，都是给自己找借口”
- “在苹果干30年，比跳去大多数创业公司结果都要好”
- “shortcut is the fastest way to get lost（捷径是迷路的最快的办法）”
- “对的生意，对的人，对的价钱”
❓ 完整问答
1. 对你来说什么东西是最重要的？为什么？
段永平：不同年龄答案是不同的。现在是家人、亲情、友情。这还需要说为什么吗？
2. 没有销售部，那你的价格决策机制是什么？
段永平：做市场调研，在上市的时候就尽可能定准价，错了及时调整。（电子产品）竞争的本质在于产品差异化，要做别人提供不了的东西。没有差异化，就成了日用基础商品，只能靠价格来竞争，很难挣钱。
3. 你有没有试图改变过性格和思维方式？
段永平：我觉得没有，性格很难改。中欧有个统计，世界500强的CEO中什么样的性格都有，而他们只有一个共性，就是integrity（诚实）。
4. 中国民营企业应该怎么应对贸易战的挑战？
段永平：最主要的是取决于企业本身，做的好，有没有贸易战都无所谓。很多做的不好的企业，会拿贸易战当遮羞布。好的企业，危机来的时候，反而是机会。我们不贷款，有充裕的现金流，所以每一次危机来的时候都是机会。
5. 投资早期企业的逻辑是什么？
段永平：我不投早期，只投上市企业。投黄峥是因为个人原因，他是我朋友，我了解他、相信他。黄峥是我知道的少见的很有悟性的人，他关注事物本质。
6. 谈一谈营销方法论？
段永平：（外界）有个误解，以为我们很看重营销。其实对于我们来说，营销一点儿都不重要的，最重要的还是产品。没有哪家公司的失败，是因为营销失败。公司失败，本质都是因为产品的失败。营销，就是用最简单的语言，把你想传播的信息传播出去（给你的用户）。营销不好，顶多就是卖的慢一点，但是只要产品好，不论营销好坏，20年后结果都一样。
9. 现在手机（企业）有两种模式，一是小米这种先圈用户，再通过其他方式变现；二是苹果这样，靠产品本身赚钱。哪种好？
段永平：首先，圈客户的角度，苹果比小米厉害；其次，长远来看，没有什么企业是靠便宜赚钱的。性价比，都是给自己找借口。一定要把重心聚焦在用户上，也不是我们非要做高端还是低端，只是把自己能做的事情做好了，满足了一部分人群的需求。即使苹果，也没有满足所有人。
11. 这么多手机公司，为什么苹果最成功？
段永平：苹果很难得，focus（聚焦）在自己做的事情上。苹果有利润之上的追求，就是做最好的产品。苹果文化的强度很强，有严格的”Stop Doing List”，一定要满足用户，一定做最好的产品。我们不和苹果比，因为1000个功能里面，有一些比苹果强，说明不了什么。就像CBA篮球打不过NBA，说我们会功夫，不是扯嘛。
13. 为什么说”敢为天下后，后中争先”？
段永平：所有的高手都是敢为天下后的，只是做的比别人更好。我们公司成功不是偶然的，坚持自己的”Stop Doing List”，筛合伙人，筛供货商，慢慢地就会攒下好圈子，长期来看很有价值。敢为天下后，指的是产品类别，是因为你猜市场的需求往往很难，但是别人已经把需求明确了，你去满足这个需求，就更确定。
14. 有没有过一些投资错误？
段永平：投资没犯过错误，投机犯过。（投资其实也犯过，但错误很小，当时可能没想起来。）投机百度的时候被short squeeze（夹空）了，亏了1亿~2亿美金。我学老巴：想不通的我不碰，肯定会错失很多好机会，但是保证抓住的都是对的。投资遵循老巴的逻辑：先看商业模式，理解企业怎么挣钱。95%的人投资都是focus在市场上的，这就是不懂投资。一定要focus在生意上。公司是要挣钱的。
15. 什么时候卖苹果，为什么？
段永平：好公司是不需要卖的！
16. 你来美国后，能力圈有什么提升？
段永平：能力圈不是拿金箍棒在地上画个圈，说待在里面不要出去，外面有妖怪。能力圈是：诚实对自己，知之为知之，不知为不知。有这样的态度，然后如果能看懂一个东西，那它就是在我能力圈内，否则就不是。苹果1万亿市值？我从来不关心这个，我只关心它赚钱的能力。买公司，是不打算卖的，除非它盈利能力改变，或者有更好的标的，自己很懂，价格又很低。
17. 怎么看待创业的”坚持了才有希望”和”Stop Doing List”？
段永平：“Stop Doing List”说的是做对的事，如果知道错了，马上要改。创业依然适用。（就是对的事情一定要坚持，错的事情一定要尽快改！）至于怎么做对，那是方法层面的，可以通过学习来解决。要是不知对错，就是没有是非观，那这辈子很难有成就。是非观是要自己培养、坚持的，没有shortcut。
19. 你主张不贷款，不用margin，错过了机会怎么办？
段永平：贷款和用margin，赚的时候快，赔的时候更快。常在河边走，哪能不湿鞋，湿一回鞋就湿一辈子，为什么要冒这个险呢？（有些机会总是要错过的，只要保证抓住的是对的，就足够了。）我们过去的大部分竞争对手都消失了，我们还健在，道理也许就在此。
21. 对职场新人职业发展的建议？
段永平：做好本职工作，不要跳来跳去。硅谷很多人喜欢跳槽，但是在苹果干30年，比跳去大多数创业公司结果都要好。
23. 企业文化？
段永平：企业文化就是Mission、Vision和Core Values。“Mission”是为什么成立；“Vision”是我们要去哪里；“Core Values”是哪些事情是对的，哪些事情是不对的。招人分合格的人和合适的人。合适是指文化匹配，合格是指能力。价值观不match（匹配）的人，坚决不要。给公司制造麻烦的，往往是合格但不合适的人。一群合适的普通人在一起，同心合力也能干大事。
24. 怎么看待中国企业爱弯道超车？
段永平：Alaska有句话，shortcut is the fastest way to get lost（捷径是迷路的最快的办法。）不存在什么弯道超车的事情，关注本质最重要！不然即使超过去，也会被超回来。
25. 怎么判断股价便不便宜？
段永平：这是关注短期关注市场的人才会问的问题。我不考虑这个问题。我关注长期，看不懂的不碰。任何想市场，想时机的做法，可能都是错误的，我不看市场，我看生意。你说某只股票贵，how do you know？站在现在看10年前，估计什么都是贵的。你站在10年后看现在，能看懂而且便宜的公司，买就行了。
26. 怎么理解”Stop Doing List”？
段永平：主要讲的是做对的事情。它不是一个skill（技巧）或者formula（公式），而是思维方式：如果发现错了，就立刻停止，因为这个时候成本是最小的。“Stop Doing List”没有shortcut（捷径），要靠自己去积累，去攒，去体悟。stop doing就是发现错，就要停，时间长了就效果很明显。很多人放不下眼前的诱惑，30年后还在那儿。错了一定要停，要抵抗住短期的诱惑。
27. 在硅谷怎么更好地带娃？
段永平：最主要的，要给孩子安全感。怎么给？就是给quality time，就是高质量的陪伴，跟他们交朋友。高质量的陪伴，就是待在一起，把手机藏起来。要无条件的爱。中国人容易有条件的爱，“你得了第一，爸爸很爱你啊”，这两句话绝对不能放一起说。
28. 怎么看待老巴？
段永平：老巴是一个很好的人。他是发自内心的对人好对人诚恳。他很睿智，任何复杂的问题，他一两句话就说到本质了。他这么睿智这么成功又对人这么好，中国企业家里我基本没见过这样的，美国企业家里也极少。
29. 为什么卖网易？
段永平：因为丁磊就是个大孩子，那么多钱放他手里不放心，虽然股价证明我可能卖错了。
34. （价值）投资最重要的是什么？
段永平：对的生意、对的人、对的价钱。（这是老巴说的。）对的生意说的就是生意模式，对的人指的就是企业文化。价格没有那么重要，生意和人最重要。企业文化跟创始人有很大关系。
36. 怎么看比特币/区块链？
段永平：我对不产生现金流的东西，不感兴趣。区块链我不懂，不懂不看，不懂没法下重注。但是我看不懂，不代表你看不懂，你要投自己能看懂的。
37. 怎么发现并保持平常心？
段永平：保持不难，因为它就在那儿（是内心已经有的东西）。不过，马云还说过一句话”平常人是很难有平常心的，所以平常心也是不平常心！“发现嘛，靠吃亏。因为没有平常心，一不rational就会栽跟头。
38. 怎么找到喜欢做的事？
段永平：你如果总是待在自己不喜欢的地方，你可能永远都不会知道自己真正喜欢什么。所以发现错的事情，就要停。多去尝试，去寻找。做自己喜欢的事，就没有加班的概念了，因为你会想尽办法工作。
42. 怎么发现对/不对的事情？
段永平：要有时间想。可能会想很久，有一天突然灵光一现，想明白是错的/对的。很多人一天到晚忙，根本没时间想，可能永远都不会明白。
45. 男怕入错行。将来会火的、自己擅长的，自己喜欢的，选哪个？
段永平：如果你知道：会火的+擅长的+喜欢的，那肯定做那一行。问题是这很难知道，所以优先做自己喜欢的。钱多不是好事，因为挣钱是一个很大的乐趣，钱多你就失去了一个很重要的乐趣。钱差不多就可以了，做自己喜欢的事更重要。
47. 人机交互的下一个突破口？
段永平：我不知道。但是机器肯定越来越强，人已经在围棋上输了，做投机你也打不过机器。但是在投资上，机器永远打不过人，因为机器看不懂公司。
49. 黄峥的什么（优势）让你投他？
段永平：我和黄峥10多年的朋友了，我了解他，我信任他！
🔗 相关笔记
相关概念 本分 · 平常心 · Stop Doing List · 差异化 · 企业文化 · 能力圈 相关人物 段永平 · 黄峥 · 巴菲特 相关公司 苹果 · OPPO · 拼多多