The Logic of Buying: When Is It Worth Taking Action?
“Stocks are ‘priced’ by each buyer; only when you ‘yourself’ feel it’s cheap can you buy — in reality, this has nothing to do with the market (others)” — Duan Yongping (2012-04-14)
💡 Core Insights
- Timing of buying and selling has nothing to do with the market, only your own understanding of the company
- When selling, don’t consider cost (profit/loss); when buying, don’t think about past prices
- If you don’t intend to hold a stock for 10 years, definitely don’t plan to hold it for 10 days — otherwise you’re just “trading”
- Nothing hurts more than buying the wrong stock and holding it long-term
- Buying a stock has nothing to do with its past price, just as selling a stock has nothing to do with your purchase cost
🔍 In-depth Analysis
The Essence of Buy/Sell Timing
Stocks are “priced” by each buyer; only when you “yourself” feel it’s cheap can you buy — in reality, this has nothing to do with the market (others). Once you can understand this sentence, your stock market career basically has a very good chance of consistently making money. But if you don’t actually understand it, that’s fine too, because roughly 85% of people will never understand this statement, and this is the fundamental reason these people will eventually lose money in the stock market. (2012-04-14)
The Logic of Selling
Whenever you sell, never link it to your purchase cost. There may be many reasons to sell, but the one reason you should never use is “I’ve already made a profit.” Otherwise, you’ll easily sell off a great company you worked hard to find at a cheap price. (2010-03-27)
❓ Selected Q&A
Q: When should I sell a stock?
A: I actually don’t have an answer either. But here’s my understanding: whenever you sell, never link it to your purchase cost. There may be many reasons to sell, but the one reason you should never use is “I’ve already made a profit.” My judgment criterion is value. This is also how I was able to hold onto NetEase for 8-9 years. (2010-03-27)
Q: What was the most important reason you were able to hold NetEase through 100x gains?
A: The most important reason I could hold on was understanding the company and its business, plus having 平常心 (equanimity) — not thinking about purchase cost and focusing future cash flows that I can understand. (2010-05-13)
Q: Does buying a stock have anything to do with its past price?
A: Buying a stock has nothing to do with its past price, just as selling a stock has nothing to do with your purchase cost. If you can’t understand this point, then you’re a trader. Of course, being a profitable trader isn’t bad either, ha ha. (2012-01-28)
Q: If I don’t plan to hold a stock for 10 years, can I hold it for 10 days?
A: If you don’t intend to hold a stock for 10 years, you definitely shouldn’t plan to hold it for 10 days, otherwise that’s just “trading.” (2011-12-13)
Q: What does “long-term investment” mean?
A: Let me clarify something: when I talk about “not selling,” I mean “absolutely” good stocks. Long-term holding must be premised on buying the right good stock. Many people only remember “long-term” when they’re “trapped.” Here, “trapped” means some people originally planned to hold a stock for 10 days, but because of “losses” decided to change to holding for 10 years. Such decisions often lead to losing more. (2011-12-13)
Q: What’s the difference between investing and speculation?
A: My definition of speculation is believing you can be one step ahead of the market. My definition of investing has nothing to do with the market (meaning what others think in the short term doesn’t matter). From a long-term perspective, the market is extremely smart! (2011-12-13)
Q: How to understand “nothing hurts more than buying the wrong stock and holding it long-term”?
A: Nothing hurts more than buying the wrong stock and holding it long-term. Many so-called “buy-and-hold” people are actually speculators because they genuinely don’t know what they bought, so after purchasing they spend all day asking others for opinions, and when trapped they bring out “long-term investing” to comfort themselves. (2011-12-13)
💡 Core Principles of Trading
- Buying: Only buy when you yourself feel it’s cheap, regardless of the market
- Holding: Continue holding as long as the company’s fundamentals haven’t changed
- Selling: Only sell when you realize you bought wrong, find a better opportunity, or when the price becomes outrageous
- Don’t: Don’t sell because of losses; don’t sell because of profits
🔗 Related Notes
Related Concepts 买股票就是买公司 · 平常心 · 长期主义 · 卖出逻辑 Related People 段永平 Related Companies 网易 · 苹果 Related Topics 卖出的逻辑：段永平为什么很少卖 · 如何看待市场波动
买入的逻辑：什么时候值得出手
“股票是由每个买家自己’定价’的，到你’自己’觉得便宜的时候才可以买，实际上和市场（别人）无关” — 段永平（2012-04-14）
💡 核心观点
- 买卖时机和市场无关，只和自己对公司的理解有关
- 卖的时候不要考虑成本（盈亏），买的时候不要想过去到过什么价
- 不打算拿10年的股票一定别去打算拿10天，不然就是”炒”了
- 没什么比买错股票并长期持有伤害更大的了
- 买股票和这只股票过去是多少钱没关系，就像卖股票和买入成本无关一样
🔍 深度解析
买卖时机的本质
股票是由每个买家自己”定价”的，到你”自己”觉得便宜的时候才可以买，实际上和市场（别人）无关。啥时你能看懂这句话，你的股票生涯基本上就很有机会持续赚钱了。如果看不懂其实也没关系，因为大概85%的人是永远看不懂这句话的，这也是这些人早晚会亏在股市上的根本原因。（2012-04-14）
卖出的逻辑
无论什么时候卖都不要和买的成本联系起来。该卖的理由可能有很多，唯一不该用的理由就是”我已经赚钱了”。不然的话，就很容易把好不容易找到的好公司在便宜的价钱就卖了。（2010-03-27）
❓ 精选问答
问：什么时候卖股票？
答：我其实也没有答案。但是我有个理解，就是无论什么时候卖都不要和买的成本联系起来。该卖的理由可能有很多，唯一不该用的理由就是”我已经赚钱了”。我的判断标准就是价值。这也是我能拿住网易8-9年的道理。（2010-03-27）
问：能够拿得住网易100倍的最主要原因是什么？
答：能够拿得住的最主要原因还是对公司及其业务的了解，还有就是平常心了，不要去想买入的成本，把焦点放在能理解的未来现金流上。（2010-05-13）
问：买股票和这只股票过去是多少钱有关系吗？
答：买股票和这只股票过去是多少钱没关系，就像卖股票和买入成本无关一样。搞不懂这点就是trader，当然做个赚钱的trader也不错哈。（2012-01-28）
问：不打算拿10年的股票，能拿10天吗？
答：不打算拿10年的股票一定别去打算拿10天，不然就是”炒”了。（2011-12-13）
问：“长线投资”是什么意思？
答：特别说明一下，我理解中”不卖”指的是”绝对”好股。长线持有一定是在买对好股票的前提下。有很多人往往只是在”被套”的时候才想起”长线”来。这里”被套”的意思是指有些人本来指打算拿10天的股票，结果因为”亏钱”了而决定改为拿10年，这种决定往往会让人亏更多。（2011-12-13）
问：投资和投机的区别是什么？
答：我认为的投机就是认为自己可以比市场快一步。我认为的投资和市场没关系（意思就是别人短期怎么看没关系）。从长期的角度看，市场是绝顶聪明的！（2011-12-13）
问：没什么比买错股票并长期持有伤害更大的了，这句话怎么理解？
答：没什么比买错股票并长期持有伤害更大的了。很多”购买并持有”的人们实际上就是投机分子，因为他们自己其实不知道自己买的是什么，所以买了以后需要整天问别人怎么看，在被套时就拿出”长期投资”来安慰自己。（2011-12-13）
💡 买卖的核心原则
- 买入：只在自己觉得便宜时买，和市场无关
- 持有：只要公司基本面没变，就一直持有
- 卖出：只在发现买错了、有更好标的、或价格离谱时卖出
- 不要：不要因为亏损而不卖，不要因为盈利而卖
🔗 相关笔记
相关概念 买股票就是买公司 · 平常心 · 长期主义 · 卖出逻辑 相关人物 段永平 相关公司 网易 · 苹果 相关主题 卖出的逻辑：段永平为什么很少卖 · 如何看待市场波动